Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

ECMWF IFS HRES (ifs_hres)

source ecmwf · product oper · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC · native extreme fields mx2t3, mn2t3, mx2t6, mn2t6 (diagnostic only, never in the headline ranking).

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F by station

all available history, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL 2.64-2.38 · n=24 2.08-1.53 · n=23 2.57-1.55 · n=22 3.29-1.14 · n=22 4.00-2.08 · n=20 3.74-1.91 · n=18 3.12-0.12 · n=19 3.48-0.29 · n=18 2.62-0.28 · n=17 3.54-1.11 · n=16 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KAUS 4.69-4.59 · n=24 4.75-4.75 · n=23 4.42-4.42 · n=22 4.06-4.06 · n=22 3.83-3.83 · n=20 3.98-3.98 · n=18 4.14-4.14 · n=19 3.99-3.99 · n=18 4.10-4.10 · n=17 4.09-4.09 · n=16 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KBOS 2.15-1.42 · n=23 2.40-0.54 · n=22 2.37-0.19 · n=21 3.82+0.45 · n=21 3.81-0.51 · n=19 4.09-1.00 · n=17 4.76-0.66 · n=18 4.37-1.02 · n=17 6.53-1.45 · n=16 4.33+1.41 · n=15 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDCA 2.93-1.91 · n=24 3.61-2.80 · n=23 4.10-2.96 · n=22 3.91-2.37 · n=22 3.47-1.84 · n=20 3.63-2.75 · n=18 4.71-2.00 · n=19 3.86-1.92 · n=18 3.17-1.74 · n=17 4.35-1.09 · n=16 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDEN 3.45-3.28 · n=25 3.76-3.72 · n=22 3.46-2.99 · n=23 4.46-3.24 · n=22 4.51-3.77 · n=20 3.63-2.72 · n=18 5.09-2.95 · n=19 4.59-4.06 · n=18 6.03-3.91 · n=17 —KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDFW 2.45-1.62 · n=24 2.28-1.40 · n=23 2.53-1.65 · n=22 2.42-0.85 · n=22 2.26-0.94 · n=20 1.96-1.41 · n=18 2.16-1.05 · n=19 1.66-0.67 · n=18 2.63-1.02 · n=17 2.59-1.05 · n=16 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KEWR 3.46-3.14 · n=24 4.30-3.94 · n=23 3.75-3.59 · n=22 3.59-3.27 · n=22 3.04-2.01 · n=20 3.70-2.50 · n=18 4.10-1.37 · n=19 3.17-2.35 · n=18 3.50-2.25 · n=17 4.45-0.76 · n=16 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KIAH 3.84-3.73 · n=24 3.85-3.85 · n=23 3.85-3.85 · n=22 3.63-3.63 · n=22 3.87-3.87 · n=20 3.95-3.95 · n=18 3.79-3.79 · n=19 3.62-3.62 · n=18 4.15-4.15 · n=17 3.84-3.45 · n=16 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAS 3.89-3.66 · n=25 3.83-2.58 · n=22 3.14-2.37 · n=23 3.46-1.89 · n=22 3.31-2.52 · n=20 3.33-3.02 · n=18 3.92-2.74 · n=19 4.68-3.37 · n=18 6.30-4.38 · n=17 —KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAX 2.35-2.26 · n=25 2.44-2.20 · n=22 2.32-2.12 · n=23 2.21-1.80 · n=22 1.97-1.31 · n=20 2.43-1.48 · n=18 2.43-1.80 · n=19 3.06-1.72 · n=18 3.34-2.55 · n=17 —KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMIA 3.27-3.27 · n=24 4.02-4.02 · n=23 3.95-3.95 · n=22 3.97-3.97 · n=22 3.57-3.57 · n=20 3.92-3.66 · n=18 3.95-3.85 · n=19 3.69-3.69 · n=18 4.27-4.15 · n=17 3.85-3.63 · n=16 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSP 2.93-2.62 · n=24 3.82-2.78 · n=23 3.42-2.18 · n=22 3.65-2.19 · n=22 3.04-2.36 · n=20 2.96-1.85 · n=18 4.95-2.68 · n=19 3.59-3.13 · n=18 5.02-3.81 · n=17 5.64-3.42 · n=16 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSY 4.30-4.30 · n=24 4.05-3.45 · n=23 4.47-4.47 · n=22 4.80-4.80 · n=22 4.99-4.99 · n=20 5.16-5.16 · n=18 4.64-4.64 · n=19 4.15-4.10 · n=18 3.96-3.96 · n=17 4.57-3.94 · n=16 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KNYC 2.41+0.32 · n=24 2.96-0.57 · n=23 2.12+0.28 · n=22 3.34+0.36 · n=22 3.33+1.27 · n=20 2.72+0.94 · n=18 3.80+1.86 · n=19 2.48+1.04 · n=18 3.43+0.93 · n=17 4.29+2.57 · n=16 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KOKC 3.70-2.99 · n=24 3.79-2.50 · n=23 3.03-2.28 · n=22 3.22-2.38 · n=22 3.64-2.52 · n=20 3.04-0.66 · n=18 2.84-0.85 · n=19 2.36-1.23 · n=18 2.85+0.32 · n=17 4.06+0.12 · n=16 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KORD 2.42-1.73 · n=24 2.98-2.01 · n=23 2.77-1.90 · n=22 2.62-1.54 · n=22 2.51-1.98 · n=20 2.79-1.17 · n=18 3.45-1.85 · n=19 3.40-2.89 · n=18 5.13-2.53 · n=17 5.73-2.56 · n=16 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHL 2.68-2.31 · n=24 4.17-3.54 · n=23 3.37-2.51 · n=22 3.29-3.09 · n=22 3.48-2.16 · n=20 4.06-2.47 · n=18 4.54-0.99 · n=19 2.88-1.53 · n=18 3.58-1.95 · n=17 5.18-0.52 · n=16 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHX 2.09-2.01 · n=25 2.38-2.08 · n=22 2.79-2.42 · n=23 2.98-2.57 · n=22 2.84-2.52 · n=20 3.53-2.53 · n=18 3.06-2.30 · n=19 3.42-1.93 · n=18 5.09-3.44 · n=17 —KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAN 5.81-5.81 · n=25 5.68-5.68 · n=22 5.78-5.78 · n=23 5.53-5.50 · n=22 5.69-5.66 · n=20 5.86-5.86 · n=18 5.56-5.56 · n=19 5.47-5.47 · n=18 6.28-6.28 · n=17 —KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAT 3.23-3.23 · n=24 3.17-3.17 · n=23 3.13-3.08 · n=22 2.92-2.74 · n=22 2.58-2.56 · n=20 2.70-2.70 · n=18 2.93-2.93 · n=19 2.89-2.47 · n=18 3.01-2.53 · n=17 3.01-2.66 · n=16 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSEA 1.78-0.85 · n=25 2.39-0.62 · n=22 2.41-0.80 · n=23 2.83-0.80 · n=22 2.79-1.68 · n=20 4.59-3.24 · n=18 4.75-2.30 · n=19 4.72-1.10 · n=18 6.14-2.65 · n=17 —KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSFO 6.17-6.17 · n=25 6.71-6.71 · n=22 5.98-5.98 · n=23 6.33-6.33 · n=22 6.33-6.33 · n=20 6.20-6.20 · n=18 5.98-5.91 · n=19 5.44-5.42 · n=18 5.37-5.14 · n=17 —KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KTTN 1.55+0.16 · n=24 2.66-0.76 · n=23 2.44+0.10 · n=22 2.35-0.18 · n=22 3.42+0.52 · n=20 3.04+0.87 · n=18 4.18+1.89 · n=19 2.74+1.02 · n=18 2.67+1.14 · n=17 4.51+1.96 · n=16 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F by station

all available history, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL 1.28-0.36 · n=24 1.93+0.19 · n=23 2.05+0.22 · n=22 2.55+0.62 · n=22 2.44+0.50 · n=20 2.24+0.47 · n=18 2.31+1.32 · n=19 2.74+1.18 · n=18 2.53+1.48 · n=17 2.66+1.72 · n=16 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KAUS 3.70+3.67 · n=24 4.12+4.05 · n=23 4.67+4.47 · n=22 4.24+4.04 · n=22 4.67+4.62 · n=20 5.04+4.95 · n=18 5.14+5.09 · n=19 5.50+5.50 · n=18 5.85+5.80 · n=17 5.44+5.44 · n=16 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KBOS 1.27+0.23 · n=23 1.30+0.53 · n=22 1.82+0.57 · n=21 1.81+1.38 · n=21 2.23+1.73 · n=19 2.30+1.55 · n=17 2.58+1.06 · n=18 1.64+0.93 · n=17 1.71+0.71 · n=16 3.00+1.76 · n=15 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDCA 1.60+0.06 · n=24 2.03+0.35 · n=23 2.14-0.18 · n=22 2.79+0.66 · n=22 2.44+0.48 · n=20 2.51-0.20 · n=18 2.98+0.35 · n=19 2.96+0.98 · n=18 3.07+0.89 · n=17 3.36+1.45 · n=16 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDEN 2.39+1.99 · n=25 2.96+2.17 · n=22 3.38+2.94 · n=23 3.47+2.97 · n=22 3.33+2.89 · n=20 3.36+2.99 · n=18 3.58+3.23 · n=19 3.29+3.29 · n=18 3.50+3.16 · n=17 —KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDFW 2.17+2.17 · n=24 2.86+2.86 · n=23 3.05+3.03 · n=22 3.03+3.02 · n=22 3.49+3.49 · n=20 3.20+3.20 · n=18 3.07+3.03 · n=19 3.36+3.36 · n=18 3.79+3.79 · n=17 4.25+4.05 · n=16 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KEWR 1.86+1.49 · n=24 2.21+1.02 · n=23 2.52+1.82 · n=22 3.28+2.74 · n=22 3.27+2.66 · n=20 3.05+1.48 · n=18 2.88+2.29 · n=19 3.19+2.82 · n=18 3.72+2.72 · n=17 4.70+3.11 · n=16 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KIAH 1.93+1.07 · n=24 1.92+1.21 · n=23 1.70+0.98 · n=22 2.02+1.46 · n=22 1.86+1.46 · n=20 2.06+1.64 · n=18 1.88+1.52 · n=19 2.04+1.75 · n=18 2.64+1.70 · n=17 2.68+1.45 · n=16 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAS 3.09-2.61 · n=25 3.61-2.76 · n=22 3.82-3.06 · n=23 4.25-2.54 · n=22 4.58-3.15 · n=20 4.56-2.50 · n=18 5.00-2.76 · n=19 5.43-3.68 · n=18 5.68-4.43 · n=17 —KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAX 0.64+0.45 · n=25 0.85+0.58 · n=22 0.97+0.52 · n=23 1.07+0.72 · n=22 1.36+1.26 · n=20 1.52+1.38 · n=18 1.49+1.34 · n=19 1.73+1.10 · n=18 2.18+0.63 · n=17 —KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMIA 2.02+0.62 · n=24 1.68-0.17 · n=23 1.54-0.18 · n=22 1.65-0.04 · n=22 1.10+0.28 · n=20 1.25+0.61 · n=18 1.75+0.29 · n=19 1.86+0.53 · n=18 1.63+0.13 · n=17 1.89+0.68 · n=16 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSP 1.54+0.14 · n=24 1.47+0.04 · n=23 1.81+0.63 · n=22 2.39+0.79 · n=22 1.86+0.53 · n=20 1.91+0.65 · n=18 2.50+0.91 · n=19 3.28+1.28 · n=18 4.22+1.52 · n=17 5.51+1.55 · n=16 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSY 3.49+3.38 · n=24 3.45+3.33 · n=23 3.44+3.29 · n=22 3.46+3.30 · n=22 3.26+2.98 · n=20 3.06+2.71 · n=18 3.35+2.91 · n=19 3.42+2.88 · n=18 3.56+2.97 · n=17 3.66+3.06 · n=16 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KNYC 2.02+1.93 · n=24 1.77+1.48 · n=23 2.46+2.16 · n=22 3.24+3.24 · n=22 3.37+3.28 · n=20 2.64+2.19 · n=18 3.03+2.75 · n=19 3.21+3.00 · n=18 4.12+2.68 · n=17 4.05+3.29 · n=16 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KOKC 4.15+4.15 · n=24 5.50+5.50 · n=23 6.08+5.87 · n=22 5.83+5.73 · n=22 5.98+5.98 · n=20 6.90+6.89 · n=18 7.26+7.26 · n=19 7.68+7.68 · n=18 8.31+8.31 · n=17 8.70+8.70 · n=16 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KORD 1.20+0.36 · n=24 1.57+0.48 · n=23 1.60+1.05 · n=22 1.79+0.39 · n=22 2.29+0.82 · n=20 2.35+0.86 · n=18 1.44+0.48 · n=19 2.17+0.43 · n=18 3.66+0.98 · n=17 4.30+1.27 · n=16 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHL 1.28-0.56 · n=24 1.98-0.43 · n=23 2.01+0.15 · n=22 2.67+0.62 · n=22 2.52+0.50 · n=20 3.40-0.23 · n=18 3.14+0.53 · n=19 2.59+1.35 · n=18 2.88+1.47 · n=17 4.74+1.54 · n=16 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHX 3.15+0.29 · n=25 3.17+0.98 · n=22 3.36+1.11 · n=23 3.50+1.34 · n=22 3.71+1.41 · n=20 3.69+2.16 · n=18 3.48+1.69 · n=19 3.49-0.30 · n=18 3.02+0.54 · n=17 —KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAN 0.82-0.43 · n=25 1.12-0.87 · n=22 1.12-0.85 · n=23 1.33-0.96 · n=22 1.35-0.77 · n=20 1.40-0.98 · n=18 1.15-0.79 · n=19 1.40-0.82 · n=18 1.50-1.26 · n=17 —KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAT 1.79+1.10 · n=24 2.09+1.07 · n=23 2.12+1.17 · n=22 1.93+1.08 · n=22 2.37+1.57 · n=20 2.68+1.64 · n=18 2.74+1.76 · n=19 2.59+2.03 · n=18 2.36+2.00 · n=17 2.68+1.78 · n=16 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSEA 1.85+1.67 · n=25 1.48+1.37 · n=22 1.63+1.57 · n=23 1.67+1.51 · n=22 2.04+1.94 · n=20 1.46+0.98 · n=18 2.16+1.23 · n=19 2.64+1.53 · n=18 2.35+1.01 · n=17 —KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSFO 0.78-0.17 · n=25 0.87-0.13 · n=22 0.95-0.08 · n=23 0.91-0.08 · n=22 0.75-0.15 · n=20 0.64-0.21 · n=18 0.89-0.38 · n=19 1.25-0.29 · n=18 1.38+0.19 · n=17 —KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KTTN 3.69+3.69 · n=24 3.34+3.26 · n=23 4.34+4.34 · n=22 4.89+4.89 · n=22 5.05+4.94 · n=20 4.57+4.32 · n=18 4.77+4.77 · n=19 5.33+5.33 · n=18 5.98+5.65 · n=17 6.09+5.93 · n=16 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.

Source and licence

Where it comes from

ecmwf · oper

Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

ECMWF open data, CC BY 4.0, © ECMWF.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.

All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences