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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Philadelphia Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 8

KPHL · ifs_hres · lead 8

Target day = initialization date + 8 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d17 1 QC3.58 [2.90, 4.99]3.03-1.95 [-4.45, -0.32]4.42 [3.64, 5.60]18% [0%, 45%]35%53%+0.29+0.252026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d17 1 QC3.58 [2.86, 5.52]3.03-1.95 [-5.52, -0.22]4.42 [3.51, 5.84]18% [0%, 47%]35%53%+0.29+0.252026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d17 1 QC3.58 [2.81, 5.52]3.03-1.95 [-5.52, -0.04]4.42 [3.51, 5.88]18% [0%, 50%]35%53%+0.29+0.252026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall17 1 QC3.58 [2.77, 5.52]3.03-1.95 [-5.52, -0.13]4.42 [3.46, 5.94]18% [0%, 50%]35%53%+0.29+0.252026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d17 1 QC3.78 [3.21, 4.79]3.31-1.59 [-4.06, -0.02]4.36 [3.59, 5.32]6% [0%, 14%]18%41%+0.25+0.182026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d17 1 QC3.78 [3.12, 5.22]3.31-1.59 [-4.82, 0.12]4.36 [3.47, 5.51]6% [0%, 14%]18%41%+0.25+0.182026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d17 1 QC3.78 [3.17, 5.22]3.31-1.59 [-5.22, 0.35]4.36 [3.49, 5.53]6% [0%, 14%]18%41%+0.25+0.182026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall17 1 QC3.78 [3.10, 5.22]3.31-1.59 [-5.13, 0.19]4.36 [3.39, 5.64]6% [0%, 14%]18%41%+0.25+0.182026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC4.36 [3.43, 5.83]4.19-3.33 [-5.41, -2.21]6.18 [4.82, 7.58]24% [0%, 44%]47%53%+0.14-0.032026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC4.36 [3.41, 5.85]4.19-3.33 [-5.83, -2.21]6.18 [4.80, 7.65]24% [0%, 45%]47%53%+0.14-0.032026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC4.36 [3.46, 5.85]4.19-3.33 [-5.83, -2.13]6.18 [4.67, 7.70]24% [0%, 46%]47%53%+0.14-0.032026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 1 QC4.36 [3.35, 5.97]4.19-3.33 [-5.85, -2.28]6.18 [4.58, 7.75]24% [0%, 50%]47%53%+0.14-0.032026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 1 QC4.42 [3.41, 6.21]4.24-3.34 [-5.71, -2.17]6.29 [4.82, 8.05]18% [6%, 29%]41%53%+0.13-0.052026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 1 QC4.42 [3.43, 6.49]4.24-3.34 [-6.08, -2.19]6.29 [4.84, 8.37]18% [0%, 33%]41%53%+0.13-0.052026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 1 QC4.42 [3.47, 6.47]4.24-3.34 [-6.12, -2.09]6.29 [4.80, 8.35]18% [0%, 33%]41%53%+0.13-0.052026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 1 QC4.42 [3.32, 6.71]4.24-3.34 [-6.23, -2.23]6.29 [4.61, 8.69]18% [0%, 33%]41%53%+0.13-0.052026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d17 1 QC2.88 [1.79, 3.60]2.54+1.47 [0.28, 2.45]3.75 [2.41, 4.45]35% [22%, 50%]47%53%+0.38+0.192026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d17 1 QC2.88 [1.07, 3.72]2.54+1.47 [0.29, 2.44]3.75 [1.07, 4.55]35% [14%, 50%]47%53%+0.38+0.192026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d17 1 QC2.88 [1.07, 3.76]2.54+1.47 [0.18, 2.47]3.75 [1.07, 4.58]35% [14%, 50%]47%53%+0.38+0.192026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall17 1 QC2.88 [1.07, 3.68]2.54+1.47 [0.18, 2.46]3.75 [1.07, 4.53]35% [16%, 50%]47%53%+0.38+0.192026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d17 1 QC3.05 [2.11, 3.70]2.47+1.58 [0.32, 2.70]3.82 [2.63, 4.50]24% [10%, 33%]41%53%+0.34+0.212026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d17 1 QC3.05 [1.71, 3.80]2.47+1.58 [0.36, 2.72]3.82 [1.71, 4.59]24% [0%, 33%]41%53%+0.34+0.212026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d17 1 QC3.05 [1.71, 3.81]2.47+1.58 [0.22, 2.75]3.82 [1.71, 4.62]24% [0%, 33%]41%53%+0.34+0.212026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall17 1 QC3.05 [1.71, 3.77]2.47+1.58 [0.25, 2.74]3.82 [1.71, 4.56]24% [0%, 33%]41%53%+0.34+0.212026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC2.77 [1.83, 3.50]2.46+1.28 [0.21, 2.67]3.45 [2.33, 4.10]29% [17%, 50%]47%59%+0.40+0.212026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC2.77 [1.27, 3.64]2.46+1.28 [0.17, 3.04]3.45 [1.39, 4.19]29% [14%, 62%]47%59%+0.40+0.212026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC2.77 [1.27, 3.64]2.46+1.28 [0.11, 3.06]3.45 [1.39, 4.22]29% [14%, 60%]47%59%+0.40+0.212026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 1 QC2.77 [1.31, 3.75]2.46+1.28 [0.13, 3.24]3.45 [1.62, 4.32]29% [14%, 60%]47%59%+0.40+0.212026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 1 QC2.76 [1.75, 3.52]2.44+1.23 [0.19, 2.64]3.41 [2.15, 4.10]18% [5%, 45%]47%59%+0.41+0.222026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 1 QC2.76 [0.97, 3.60]2.44+1.23 [0.15, 3.17]3.41 [1.06, 4.21]18% [3%, 62%]47%59%+0.41+0.222026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 1 QC2.76 [0.97, 3.62]2.44+1.23 [0.08, 3.10]3.41 [1.06, 4.20]18% [0%, 60%]47%59%+0.41+0.222026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 1 QC2.76 [1.12, 3.74]2.44+1.23 [0.11, 3.28]3.41 [1.44, 4.35]18% [0%, 60%]47%59%+0.41+0.222026-08-09 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHL, lead day 8, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-09: -5.52 °F2026-08-15: -5.82 °F2026-08-16: +0.09 °F2026-08-17: +0.71 °F2026-08-18: -4.45 °F2026-08-19: -0.83 °F2026-08-20: +8.94 °F2026-08-21: -2.96 °F2026-08-22: +2.57 °F2026-08-23: -1.57 °F2026-08-24: -4.12 °F2026-08-25: -1.24 °F2026-08-26: -2.33 °F2026-08-27: -3.29 °F2026-08-28: -6.59 °F2026-08-29: +1.49 °F2026-08-30: -8.27 °F2026-08-092026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (22 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-8.27
2026-08-29+1.49
2026-08-28-6.59
2026-08-27-3.29
2026-08-26-2.33
2026-08-25-1.24
2026-08-24-4.12
2026-08-23-1.57
2026-08-22+2.57
2026-08-21-2.96
2026-08-20+8.94
2026-08-19-0.83
2026-08-18-4.45
2026-08-17+0.71
2026-08-16+0.09
2026-08-15-5.82
2026-08-14—
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09-5.52

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHL, lead day 8-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 1 day9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.96 · P90 |e| 7.26 °F-100+10 °Fn = 17 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.001
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.002
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.001
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08173.58 -1.95

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 17 -0.85 [-1.74, 0.22] no
NCEP GFS 17 -1.13 [-2.29, 3.02] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 17 -1.92 [-2.87, -1.25] yes
Persistence (baseline) 17 -1.48 [-2.92, 2.17] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KPHL ifs_hres lead 8, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHL/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KPHL (Philadelphia Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 8. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHL/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence