CastCheck v0.3.1 · data through 2026-10-28

Reference

Models

Every system CastCheck scores, on the identical sampling: instantaneous 2 m temperature at 00/06/12/18 UTC, interpolated to the station from the native 0.25° grid, with no post-processing. Scores cover only the newest model-version segment, so an upgrade upstream starts a new record rather than being averaged into the old one (methodology §7).

Systems
12
Ranked
11
Baselines
1
Data through
2026-10-28
Updated
Next update
MAE, lead 1–9Aurora (GFS init) MAE by lead day 1 to 9
aiwp GFS init
Upstream
AURO
Version segment
AURO_v100from 2026-01-01
2026-01-012026-10-28
56 scored days · lead 1 Model page →
MAE, lead 1–9Aurora (IFS init) MAE by lead day 1 to 9
aiwp IFS init
Upstream
AURO
Version segment
AURO_v100from 2026-01-01
2026-01-012026-10-28
82 scored days · lead 1 Model page →
MAE, lead 1–9ECMWF AIFS Single MAE by lead day 1 to 9
ecmwf
Upstream
aifs-single
Version segment
aifs-single-gpid5from 2026-08-01
2026-08-012026-10-28
87 scored days · lead 1 Model page →
MAE, lead 1–9ECMWF IFS HRES MAE by lead day 1 to 9
ecmwf
Upstream
oper
Version segment
ifs-gpid161from 2026-08-01
2026-08-012026-10-28
87 scored days · lead 1 Model page →
MAE, lead 1–9FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) MAE by lead day 1 to 9
aiwp GFS init
Upstream
FOUR
Version segment
FOUR_v200from 2026-01-01
2026-01-012026-10-28
56 scored days · lead 1 Model page →
MAE, lead 1–9FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) MAE by lead day 1 to 9
aiwp IFS init
Upstream
FOUR
Version segment
FOUR_v200from 2026-01-01
2026-01-012026-10-28
87 scored days · lead 1 Model page →
MAE, lead 1–9GraphCast (GFS init) MAE by lead day 1 to 9
aiwp GFS init
Upstream
GRAP
Version segment
GRAP_v100from 2026-01-01
2026-01-012026-10-28
56 scored days · lead 1 Model page →
MAE, lead 1–9GraphCast (IFS init) MAE by lead day 1 to 9
aiwp IFS init
Upstream
GRAP
Version segment
GRAP_v100from 2026-01-01
2026-01-012026-10-28
86 scored days · lead 1 Model page →
MAE, lead 1–9NCEP GFS MAE by lead day 1 to 9
gfs
Upstream
pgrb2.0p25
Version segment
gfs-0p25from 2026-08-01
2026-08-012026-10-28
87 scored days · lead 1 Model page →
MAE, lead 1–9Pangu-Weather (GFS init) MAE by lead day 1 to 9
aiwp GFS init
Upstream
PANG
Version segment
PANG_v100from 2026-01-01
2026-01-012026-10-28
56 scored days · lead 1 Model page →
MAE, lead 1–9Pangu-Weather (IFS init) MAE by lead day 1 to 9
aiwp IFS init
Upstream
PANG
Version segment
PANG_v100from 2026-01-01
2026-01-012026-10-28
84 scored days · lead 1 Model page →
MAE, lead 1–9Persistence (baseline) MAE by lead day 1 to 9
truth baseline
Upstream
yesterday's observation
Version segment
obs
2026-01-012026-10-28
89 scored days · lead 1 Model page →

The same list as a table

models.csv · models.json

Scored days are for lead day 1, all stations pooled, the last 90 days, 00Z, bilinear, instantaneous temperature. Rows in italic are baselines, not forecast systems: they are the bar every model has to clear, never a competitor in the ranking. The availability bars on the cards above and the periods here are drawn on the same scale, 2026-01-01 → 2026-10-28.

ModelSourceInitial conditionsVersion segmentPeriod of recordScored days
Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfsaiwpAUROGFSAURO_v100from 2026-01-012026-01-01 → 2026-10-2856
Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifsaiwpAUROIFSAURO_v100from 2026-01-012026-01-01 → 2026-10-2882
ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_singleecmwfaifs-single—aifs-single-gpid5from 2026-08-012026-08-01 → 2026-10-2887
ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hresecmwfoper—ifs-gpid161from 2026-08-012026-08-01 → 2026-10-2887
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfsaiwpFOURGFSFOUR_v200from 2026-01-012026-01-01 → 2026-10-2856
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifsaiwpFOURIFSFOUR_v200from 2026-01-012026-01-01 → 2026-10-2887
GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfsaiwpGRAPGFSGRAP_v100from 2026-01-012026-01-01 → 2026-10-2856
GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifsaiwpGRAPIFSGRAP_v100from 2026-01-012026-01-01 → 2026-10-2886
NCEP GFSgfsgfspgrb2.0p25—gfs-0p25from 2026-08-012026-08-01 → 2026-10-2887
Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfsaiwpPANGGFSPANG_v100from 2026-01-012026-01-01 → 2026-10-2856
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifsaiwpPANGIFSPANG_v100from 2026-01-012026-01-01 → 2026-10-2884
Persistence (baseline)persistencetruthyesterday's observation—obs2026-01-01 → 2026-10-2889