Models
Each system is scored on the identical sampling — instantaneous 2 m temperature at 00/06/12/18 UTC, interpolated to the station from the native 0.25° grid, with no post-processing. Scores cover only the newest model-version segment, so an upgrade upstream starts a new record rather than being averaged into the old one (methodology §9).
| Model | Source | Initial conditions | Version segment | Period of record | Scored days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora (GFS init) aurora_gfs | aiwp · AURO | GFS | AURO_v100from 2026-08-28 | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 1 |
| Aurora (IFS init) aurora_ifs | aiwp · AURO | IFS | AURO_v100from 2026-08-28 | 2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30 | 2 |
| ECMWF AIFS Single aifs_single | ecmwf · aifs-single | — | aifs-single-gpid5from 2026-08-01 | 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 | 29 |
| ECMWF IFS HRES ifs_hres | ecmwf · oper | — | ifs-gpid161from 2026-08-01 | 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 | 23 |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) fourcastnet_gfs | aiwp · FOUR | GFS | FOUR_v200from 2026-08-28 | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 1 |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) fourcastnet_ifs | aiwp · FOUR | IFS | FOUR_v200from 2026-08-28 | 2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30 | 2 |
| GraphCast (GFS init) graphcast_gfs | aiwp · GRAP | GFS | GRAP_v100from 2026-08-28 | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 1 |
| GraphCast (IFS init) graphcast_ifs | aiwp · GRAP | IFS | GRAP_v100from 2026-01-01 | 2026-01-01 → 2026-08-30 | 27 |
| NCEP GFS gfs | gfs · pgrb2.0p25 | — | gfs-0p25from 2026-08-01 | 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 | 29 |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init) pangu_gfs | aiwp · PANG | GFS | PANG_v100from 2026-08-28 | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 1 |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init) pangu_ifs | aiwp · PANG | IFS | PANG_v100from 2026-08-28 | 2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30 | 2 |
| Persistence (baseline) persistence | truth · yesterday's observation | — | obsfrom 2024-01-01 | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 90 |
Rows in italic are baselines, not forecast systems: they are the bar every model has to clear, never a competitor in the ranking.