Model
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)
fourcastnet_gfs
source aiwp · product FOUR · initial conditions from GFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC. Scores use the latest model version segment, FOUR_v200, starting 2026-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.
Instantaneous temperature — MAE °F by stationt2
Scored against the observed 2 m temperature at the same instant (ASOS routine METAR). This is the headline variable: the same four instants on the forecast and the observation side. These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 3.35−1.77 · n=56 | 2.87−1.35 · n=56 | 3.11−1.26 · n=55 | 2.84−1.18 · n=54 | 2.69−0.93 · n=55 | 3.08−1.33 · n=56 | 3.29−1.23 · n=55 | 3.56−1.07 · n=55 | 3.81−0.42 · n=55 | 3.64−0.36 · n=55 | |
| KAUS | 2.37+0.07 · n=56 | 2.32−0.45 · n=56 | 2.44−0.83 · n=55 | 2.66−0.51 · n=54 | 2.71−0.69 · n=55 | 2.74−0.29 · n=56 | 3.07−0.39 · n=55 | 3.68−0.78 · n=55 | 4.22−1.18 · n=55 | 4.88−1.39 · n=55 | |
| KBOS | 3.28−2.71 · n=53 | 3.17−2.29 · n=51 | 2.97−2.08 · n=52 | 2.98−1.90 · n=52 | 3.08−1.61 · n=52 | 3.81−2.15 · n=53 | 4.00−1.81 · n=52 | 4.00−1.54 · n=53 | 3.93−1.76 · n=52 | 4.75−2.10 · n=52 | |
| KDCA | 3.17−2.84 · n=56 | 2.42−1.37 · n=56 | 2.56−1.20 · n=55 | 2.66−1.33 · n=54 | 2.98−1.09 · n=55 | 3.67−1.40 · n=56 | 3.90−1.26 · n=55 | 4.17−1.51 · n=55 | 4.13−1.26 · n=55 | 4.95−1.59 · n=55 | |
| KDEN | 3.38−1.65 · n=56 | 3.34−1.35 · n=56 | 3.72−1.82 · n=55 | 3.88−1.38 · n=54 | 4.18−1.03 · n=55 | 4.39−1.51 · n=56 | 4.58−1.55 · n=55 | 4.87−0.61 · n=55 | 5.90−1.08 · n=55 | — | |
| KDFW | 2.22−1.58 · n=56 | 3.32−2.92 · n=56 | 3.58−3.28 · n=55 | 3.59−3.20 · n=54 | 4.14−3.50 · n=55 | 4.32−3.62 · n=56 | 4.33−3.66 · n=55 | 5.24−4.08 · n=55 | 5.63−4.32 · n=55 | 6.03−3.84 · n=55 | |
| KEWR | 2.78−1.99 · n=56 | 2.86−1.92 · n=56 | 2.92−1.84 · n=55 | 3.11−1.94 · n=54 | 3.52−2.00 · n=55 | 3.90−2.15 · n=56 | 4.29−2.13 · n=55 | 4.22−2.11 · n=55 | 4.26−2.04 · n=55 | 5.28−2.49 · n=55 | |
| KIAH | 1.90+0.02 · n=56 | 2.21−0.41 · n=56 | 2.35−0.45 · n=55 | 2.50−0.58 · n=54 | 2.68−0.59 · n=55 | 2.89−0.37 · n=56 | 2.98−0.44 · n=55 | 3.21−0.47 · n=55 | 3.43−0.86 · n=55 | 3.88−1.26 · n=55 | |
| KLAS | 4.75−4.39 · n=56 | 4.45−4.09 · n=56 | 4.71−4.29 · n=55 | 4.93−4.48 · n=54 | 4.69−4.07 · n=55 | 5.11−4.14 · n=56 | 5.39−3.49 · n=55 | 5.39−3.21 · n=55 | 5.81−3.58 · n=55 | — | |
| KLAX | 2.51−1.13 · n=56 | 2.84−1.23 · n=56 | 3.15−1.54 · n=55 | 3.36−1.63 · n=54 | 3.37−1.53 · n=55 | 3.28−1.14 · n=56 | 3.60−1.02 · n=55 | 3.81−1.13 · n=55 | 4.24−2.11 · n=55 | — | |
| KMIA | 2.20+0.27 · n=56 | 2.11−0.25 · n=56 | 2.19+0.13 · n=55 | 2.35−0.05 · n=54 | 2.32−0.08 · n=55 | 2.45+0.14 · n=56 | 2.33+0.03 · n=55 | 2.60−0.00 · n=55 | 2.65−0.18 · n=55 | 2.66−0.26 · n=55 | |
| KMSP | 2.93−2.18 · n=56 | 3.01−2.20 · n=56 | 3.26−2.45 · n=55 | 3.76−2.87 · n=54 | 3.92−2.51 · n=55 | 4.85−2.87 · n=56 | 4.88−3.06 · n=55 | 5.50−2.78 · n=55 | 5.63−1.54 · n=55 | 6.31−2.11 · n=55 | |
| KMSY | 1.85−0.53 · n=56 | 1.85−0.03 · n=56 | 1.89−0.04 · n=55 | 2.05−0.01 · n=54 | 2.15−0.29 · n=55 | 2.56−0.39 · n=56 | 2.66+0.05 · n=55 | 2.68−0.04 · n=55 | 2.91+0.11 · n=55 | 3.19+0.43 · n=55 | |
| KNYC | 1.67−0.52 · n=56 | 2.10−0.79 · n=55 | 2.33−0.63 · n=54 | 2.44−0.73 · n=54 | 2.78−0.70 · n=55 | 3.40−0.98 · n=55 | 3.69−0.92 · n=54 | 3.69−0.84 · n=54 | 3.64−0.83 · n=55 | 4.44−1.21 · n=54 | |
| KOKC | 3.08−0.61 · n=56 | 3.12−1.27 · n=56 | 3.58−1.74 · n=55 | 3.54−1.81 · n=54 | 3.73−1.99 · n=55 | 4.64−2.18 · n=56 | 5.05−2.29 · n=55 | 5.65−2.70 · n=55 | 5.47−2.78 · n=55 | 5.59−1.97 · n=55 | |
| KORD | 2.26−1.37 · n=56 | 2.48−1.28 · n=56 | 2.81−0.93 · n=55 | 2.89−0.88 · n=54 | 3.42−1.26 · n=55 | 3.94−1.30 · n=56 | 4.11−1.37 · n=55 | 4.68−1.80 · n=55 | 4.96−1.04 · n=55 | 5.57−0.46 · n=55 | |
| KPHL | 3.27−2.85 · n=56 | 2.71−1.90 · n=56 | 2.82−1.67 · n=55 | 3.02−1.79 · n=54 | 3.09−1.73 · n=55 | 3.81−1.79 · n=56 | 4.14−2.03 · n=55 | 4.10−2.03 · n=55 | 4.24−1.89 · n=55 | 5.12−2.22 · n=55 | |
| KPHX | 4.78−3.97 · n=56 | 4.97−3.72 · n=56 | 5.21−3.80 · n=55 | 5.34−3.64 · n=54 | 5.27−3.74 · n=55 | 5.37−3.17 · n=56 | 5.69−3.27 · n=55 | 6.32−3.18 · n=55 | 6.34−3.48 · n=55 | — | |
| KSAN | 2.62−1.88 · n=56 | 2.86−1.89 · n=56 | 2.88−1.89 · n=55 | 3.12−1.87 · n=54 | 3.22−1.88 · n=55 | 3.29−1.49 · n=56 | 3.45−1.61 · n=55 | 3.58−1.61 · n=55 | 4.10−2.22 · n=55 | — | |
| KSAT | 1.95−0.36 · n=56 | 2.06−0.60 · n=56 | 2.20−0.93 · n=55 | 2.12−0.72 · n=54 | 2.39−0.73 · n=55 | 2.53−0.33 · n=56 | 2.73−0.49 · n=55 | 3.05−0.86 · n=55 | 3.55−1.29 · n=55 | 4.21−1.53 · n=55 | |
| KSEA | 2.94+0.69 · n=56 | 2.81+0.70 · n=56 | 3.11+1.17 · n=55 | 3.09+1.32 · n=54 | 3.42+0.83 · n=55 | 3.41+0.27 · n=56 | 3.65+0.49 · n=55 | 4.20+0.42 · n=55 | 4.37+0.39 · n=55 | — | |
| KSFO | 3.58−2.52 · n=56 | 3.22−1.26 · n=56 | 3.08−0.70 · n=55 | 2.90−0.22 · n=54 | 2.82−0.16 · n=55 | 2.72−0.09 · n=56 | 3.22−0.49 · n=55 | 2.90−0.40 · n=55 | 3.07−1.11 · n=55 | — | |
| KTTN | 1.99−0.21 · n=55 | 2.27+0.89 · n=55 | 2.61+1.06 · n=54 | 2.67+0.96 · n=54 | 3.11+1.18 · n=54 | 3.57+0.85 · n=56 | 4.04+0.95 · n=55 | 3.93+0.87 · n=55 | 4.01+1.08 · n=54 | 4.93+0.48 · n=55 |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm − model too cold bias interval includes zero ★ lowest MAE among ranked models (n ≥ 30) = not distinguishable from the leader ▼ worse than the leader ▲ better than the leader — all three Holm-corrected within this table, over the family of comparisons against the leader; the uncorrected verdict for every pair is published in the pairwise table of each permanent link and in pairwise_latest.csv.gzn < 30 greyed and unranked CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval on the group's own days, and reads — when it could not be computed skill reads — when fewer than 10 days are common to the model and the baseline: the ratio of two means over a handful of shared days is not a number worth printing
Sampled daily maximum — MAE °F by stationtmax_s
Scored against the maximum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 1.86+1.09 · n=56 | 2.00+1.08 · n=56 | 2.59+0.68 · n=55 | 2.25+0.62 · n=54 | 2.42+0.71 · n=55 | 2.82−0.07 · n=56 | 3.01+0.25 · n=55 | 3.72+0.53 · n=55 | 3.85+1.59 · n=55 | 3.88+0.77 · n=55 | |
| KAUS | 2.01−1.75 · n=56 | 2.27−1.98 · n=56 | 2.69−2.55 · n=55 | 2.57−2.39 · n=54 | 2.83−2.43 · n=55 | 2.71−1.95 · n=56 | 3.19−2.37 · n=55 | 4.11−3.17 · n=55 | 4.78−3.83 · n=55 | 5.15−3.71 · n=55 | |
| KBOS | 3.47−2.84 · n=53 | 3.41−2.38 · n=51 | 3.48−2.50 · n=52 | 3.43−1.95 · n=52 | 4.00−1.61 · n=52 | 4.55−2.53 · n=53 | 4.42−1.87 · n=52 | 4.32−1.97 · n=53 | 4.40−2.17 · n=52 | 5.35−2.44 · n=52 | |
| KDCA | 2.58−2.22 · n=56 | 2.10−1.02 · n=56 | 2.40−1.18 · n=55 | 2.82−1.10 · n=54 | 2.84−0.79 · n=55 | 4.03−1.02 · n=56 | 4.19−0.86 · n=55 | 4.34−1.17 · n=55 | 4.56−1.10 · n=55 | 5.51−1.28 · n=55 | |
| KDEN | 2.64−2.09 · n=56 | 2.97−1.76 · n=56 | 3.35−2.46 · n=55 | 3.32−1.94 · n=54 | 4.03−1.71 · n=55 | 4.43−2.34 · n=56 | 4.53−2.38 · n=55 | 4.70−0.95 · n=55 | 5.48−1.31 · n=55 | — | |
| KDFW | 2.00−1.74 · n=56 | 3.26−2.98 · n=56 | 3.35−3.30 · n=55 | 3.58−3.19 · n=54 | 4.04−3.52 · n=55 | 4.24−3.67 · n=56 | 4.48−4.05 · n=55 | 5.79−4.91 · n=55 | 5.97−5.21 · n=55 | 5.86−4.24 · n=55 | |
| KEWR | 3.53−3.24 · n=56 | 3.59−3.04 · n=56 | 3.37−2.90 · n=55 | 3.37−2.82 · n=54 | 4.03−3.02 · n=55 | 4.53−3.23 · n=56 | 4.81−2.86 · n=55 | 5.03−3.59 · n=55 | 5.25−3.10 · n=55 | 5.90−3.29 · n=55 | |
| KIAH | 1.93−1.29 · n=56 | 2.45−1.26 · n=56 | 2.73−1.55 · n=55 | 2.76−1.47 · n=54 | 3.05−2.02 · n=55 | 3.29−1.30 · n=56 | 3.23−1.77 · n=55 | 3.81−1.73 · n=55 | 4.04−2.86 · n=55 | 4.62−2.86 · n=55 | |
| KLAS | 3.99−3.49 · n=56 | 3.79−3.41 · n=56 | 4.23−3.58 · n=55 | 4.22−3.80 · n=54 | 4.13−3.21 · n=55 | 4.80−3.44 · n=56 | 5.19−2.36 · n=55 | 5.53−2.32 · n=55 | 6.10−3.10 · n=55 | — | |
| KLAX | 2.39−1.43 · n=56 | 2.80−1.40 · n=56 | 3.28−1.76 · n=55 | 3.39−1.98 · n=54 | 3.46−1.82 · n=55 | 3.13−1.26 · n=56 | 3.59−1.17 · n=55 | 3.99−1.14 · n=55 | 4.76−2.60 · n=55 | — | |
| KMIA | 3.05−2.00 · n=56 | 3.13−2.71 · n=56 | 2.87−1.89 · n=55 | 3.30−2.64 · n=54 | 3.48−2.48 · n=55 | 3.16−1.90 · n=56 | 2.98−1.96 · n=55 | 3.59−2.19 · n=55 | 3.79−2.44 · n=55 | 3.58−2.29 · n=55 | |
| KMSP | 2.39−1.82 · n=56 | 2.66−2.14 · n=56 | 3.09−2.22 · n=55 | 3.59−2.69 · n=54 | 4.14−2.69 · n=55 | 4.85−2.79 · n=56 | 4.74−2.70 · n=55 | 5.23−1.95 · n=55 | 5.64−1.15 · n=55 | 5.95−1.79 · n=55 | |
| KMSY | 1.56−1.23 · n=56 | 1.63−0.73 · n=56 | 1.69−1.00 · n=55 | 1.78−1.05 · n=54 | 2.11−1.44 · n=55 | 2.87−1.68 · n=56 | 2.63−1.47 · n=55 | 2.88−1.41 · n=55 | 3.17−1.50 · n=55 | 3.23−1.22 · n=55 | |
| KNYC | 1.56−0.61 · n=56 | 2.07−0.67 · n=55 | 2.18−0.46 · n=54 | 2.29−0.60 · n=54 | 2.63−0.55 · n=55 | 3.40−0.96 · n=55 | 4.05−0.63 · n=54 | 4.04−1.17 · n=54 | 4.03−0.65 · n=55 | 4.66−0.84 · n=54 | |
| KOKC | 3.36−2.77 · n=56 | 3.98−3.28 · n=56 | 4.42−3.82 · n=55 | 4.24−3.62 · n=54 | 4.73−4.15 · n=55 | 6.11−4.10 · n=56 | 6.07−5.03 · n=55 | 6.97−5.38 · n=55 | 6.31−5.29 · n=55 | 6.24−3.93 · n=55 | |
| KORD | 2.48−2.02 · n=56 | 2.81−2.02 · n=56 | 3.15−1.60 · n=55 | 3.31−1.78 · n=54 | 3.74−1.96 · n=55 | 3.99−2.26 · n=56 | 4.46−2.53 · n=55 | 5.08−2.62 · n=55 | 4.46−1.64 · n=55 | 5.08−1.12 · n=55 | |
| KPHL | 3.43−3.15 · n=56 | 3.11−2.29 · n=56 | 2.90−2.17 · n=55 | 2.96−2.03 · n=54 | 3.12−2.02 · n=55 | 4.06−2.11 · n=56 | 4.79−2.22 · n=55 | 4.39−2.46 · n=55 | 4.59−2.19 · n=55 | 5.22−2.18 · n=55 | |
| KPHX | 3.12−2.71 · n=56 | 3.38−2.61 · n=56 | 3.52−2.24 · n=55 | 4.09−2.43 · n=54 | 3.72−2.53 · n=55 | 4.24−1.96 · n=56 | 4.89−1.60 · n=55 | 5.56−1.49 · n=55 | 5.71−1.93 · n=55 | — | |
| KSAN | 2.92−2.64 · n=56 | 3.07−2.56 · n=56 | 3.18−2.59 · n=55 | 3.42−2.72 · n=54 | 3.54−2.84 · n=55 | 3.41−2.32 · n=56 | 3.77−2.37 · n=55 | 3.83−2.41 · n=55 | 4.76−3.11 · n=55 | — | |
| KSAT | 1.51−0.78 · n=56 | 1.79−1.03 · n=56 | 1.97−1.35 · n=55 | 1.97−1.22 · n=54 | 2.10−1.07 · n=55 | 2.44−0.80 · n=56 | 2.77−1.05 · n=55 | 3.28−2.02 · n=55 | 3.70−2.15 · n=55 | 4.30−2.60 · n=55 | |
| KSEA | 2.35+0.94 · n=56 | 2.80+0.98 · n=56 | 2.93+1.61 · n=55 | 2.80+1.56 · n=54 | 3.46+1.33 · n=55 | 3.74+0.65 · n=56 | 4.03+1.01 · n=55 | 5.33+0.57 · n=55 | 5.33+0.77 · n=55 | — | |
| KSFO | 3.17−1.31 · n=56 | 3.49−0.33 · n=56 | 3.90+0.19 · n=55 | 3.59+0.86 · n=54 | 3.91+0.83 · n=55 | 3.44+1.04 · n=56 | 4.38+0.50 · n=55 | 3.70+0.61 · n=55 | 3.81−0.59 · n=55 | — | |
| KTTN | 2.07−1.29 · n=55 | 2.12−0.43 · n=55 | 2.22−0.48 · n=54 | 2.29−0.16 · n=54 | 2.90−0.18 · n=54 | 3.84−0.49 · n=56 | 4.13−0.15 · n=55 | 4.11−0.77 · n=55 | 4.31−0.25 · n=54 | 5.08−0.44 · n=55 |
Sampled daily minimum — MAE °F by stationtmin_s
Scored against the minimum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 3.93−3.74 · n=56 | 2.97−2.45 · n=56 | 2.84−2.25 · n=55 | 2.63−1.71 · n=54 | 2.40−1.60 · n=55 | 2.62−1.57 · n=56 | 2.98−1.73 · n=55 | 3.02−1.72 · n=55 | 3.34−1.10 · n=55 | 3.10−0.57 · n=55 | |
| KAUS | 2.45+1.44 · n=56 | 2.06+0.73 · n=56 | 2.09+0.42 · n=55 | 2.55+0.95 · n=54 | 2.38+0.74 · n=55 | 2.61+0.84 · n=56 | 2.94+1.44 · n=55 | 3.14+1.43 · n=55 | 3.62+1.13 · n=55 | 4.30+0.52 · n=55 | |
| KBOS | 2.66−2.21 · n=53 | 2.38−1.60 · n=51 | 2.09−1.28 · n=52 | 2.20−1.29 · n=52 | 1.92−1.06 · n=52 | 2.86−1.26 · n=53 | 3.24−1.31 · n=52 | 3.26−0.74 · n=53 | 2.97−1.12 · n=52 | 3.89−1.52 · n=52 | |
| KDCA | 3.50−3.35 · n=56 | 2.12−1.35 · n=56 | 2.18−0.98 · n=55 | 2.01−1.28 · n=54 | 2.54−1.13 · n=55 | 3.18−1.27 · n=56 | 3.46−1.40 · n=55 | 3.81−1.28 · n=55 | 3.57−1.09 · n=55 | 4.56−1.66 · n=55 | |
| KDEN | 2.81−2.10 · n=56 | 2.99−1.88 · n=56 | 3.60−2.42 · n=55 | 3.37−2.15 · n=54 | 3.26−1.96 · n=55 | 3.92−2.30 · n=56 | 4.01−2.64 · n=55 | 4.03−1.81 · n=55 | 4.91−2.87 · n=55 | — | |
| KDFW | 2.28−1.82 · n=56 | 2.98−2.97 · n=56 | 3.42−3.30 · n=55 | 3.13−3.03 · n=54 | 3.55−3.35 · n=55 | 3.88−3.66 · n=56 | 3.86−3.26 · n=55 | 4.33−3.02 · n=55 | 4.93−3.49 · n=55 | 5.32−3.51 · n=55 | |
| KEWR | 2.02−0.55 · n=56 | 2.05−0.50 · n=56 | 2.35−0.46 · n=55 | 2.48−0.43 · n=54 | 2.72−0.51 · n=55 | 3.04−0.58 · n=56 | 3.26−0.76 · n=55 | 3.17−0.32 · n=55 | 3.22−0.46 · n=55 | 4.62−1.06 · n=55 | |
| KIAH | 1.75+1.03 · n=56 | 1.69+0.29 · n=56 | 1.79+0.34 · n=55 | 2.05+0.11 · n=54 | 2.18+0.40 · n=55 | 2.58+0.26 · n=56 | 2.75+0.74 · n=55 | 2.50+0.61 · n=55 | 3.03+0.77 · n=55 | 3.14+0.22 · n=55 | |
| KLAS | 5.94−5.79 · n=56 | 5.22−5.12 · n=56 | 5.34−5.20 · n=55 | 5.50−5.36 · n=54 | 5.05−4.88 · n=55 | 5.49−5.20 · n=56 | 5.50−4.75 · n=55 | 5.15−4.30 · n=55 | 5.26−4.05 · n=55 | — | |
| KLAX | 2.33−1.70 · n=56 | 2.19−1.50 · n=56 | 2.65−1.75 · n=55 | 2.80−1.83 · n=54 | 3.06−1.82 · n=55 | 2.85−1.47 · n=56 | 3.31−1.28 · n=55 | 3.24−1.38 · n=55 | 3.55−2.05 · n=55 | — | |
| KMIA | 2.13+1.64 · n=56 | 1.96+1.40 · n=56 | 2.08+1.45 · n=55 | 2.15+1.56 · n=54 | 2.13+1.39 · n=55 | 2.30+1.61 · n=56 | 2.10+1.45 · n=55 | 2.31+1.50 · n=55 | 2.28+1.17 · n=55 | 2.34+1.35 · n=55 | |
| KMSP | 3.13−2.83 · n=56 | 2.72−2.23 · n=56 | 2.85−2.37 · n=55 | 3.31−3.05 · n=54 | 3.32−2.56 · n=55 | 4.62−3.02 · n=56 | 4.75−3.79 · n=55 | 5.19−3.62 · n=55 | 5.38−1.86 · n=55 | 6.22−2.44 · n=55 | |
| KMSY | 1.58+0.15 · n=56 | 1.77+0.87 · n=56 | 1.81+0.83 · n=55 | 2.20+0.96 · n=54 | 1.94+0.86 · n=55 | 2.23+0.72 · n=56 | 2.53+1.29 · n=55 | 2.26+1.07 · n=55 | 2.95+1.61 · n=55 | 3.27+1.72 · n=55 | |
| KNYC | 1.57+0.00 · n=56 | 1.75−0.31 · n=55 | 2.25−0.19 · n=54 | 2.12+0.06 · n=54 | 2.42−0.03 · n=55 | 3.02−0.32 · n=55 | 2.92−0.44 · n=54 | 3.15+0.04 · n=54 | 3.07−0.31 · n=55 | 3.97−0.71 · n=54 | |
| KOKC | 3.13+0.78 · n=56 | 2.35+0.10 · n=56 | 2.78−0.18 · n=55 | 2.88−0.40 · n=54 | 2.85−0.56 · n=55 | 3.48−0.82 · n=56 | 4.47−0.11 · n=55 | 4.66−0.72 · n=55 | 4.89−0.83 · n=55 | 4.87−0.13 · n=55 | |
| KORD | 1.71−0.96 · n=56 | 1.78−0.50 · n=56 | 2.26−0.08 · n=55 | 2.15−0.00 · n=54 | 2.69−0.59 · n=55 | 3.57−0.49 · n=56 | 3.81−0.24 · n=55 | 3.98−0.98 · n=55 | 4.64−0.52 · n=55 | 5.46+0.06 · n=55 | |
| KPHL | 2.72−2.33 · n=56 | 1.96−1.10 · n=56 | 2.40−0.95 · n=55 | 2.49−0.71 · n=54 | 2.88−0.93 · n=55 | 3.27−0.90 · n=56 | 3.49−1.32 · n=55 | 3.60−1.06 · n=55 | 3.38−1.00 · n=55 | 4.67−1.62 · n=55 | |
| KPHX | 6.45−6.14 · n=56 | 5.97−5.56 · n=56 | 6.42−5.97 · n=55 | 5.96−5.48 · n=54 | 5.82−5.46 · n=55 | 5.80−5.25 · n=56 | 6.05−5.74 · n=55 | 6.72−5.84 · n=55 | 6.66−6.05 · n=55 | — | |
| KSAN | 2.80−1.61 · n=56 | 2.99−1.82 · n=56 | 2.84−1.59 · n=55 | 3.21−1.56 · n=54 | 3.30−1.40 · n=55 | 3.27−1.20 · n=56 | 3.42−1.44 · n=55 | 3.73−1.27 · n=55 | 3.42−1.66 · n=55 | — | |
| KSAT | 1.81−1.22 · n=56 | 2.06−1.26 · n=56 | 2.20−1.72 · n=55 | 2.13−1.36 · n=54 | 2.22−1.36 · n=55 | 2.02−1.08 · n=56 | 2.14−0.84 · n=55 | 2.46−0.81 · n=55 | 3.19−1.33 · n=55 | 3.72−1.57 · n=55 | |
| KSEA | 2.61−1.12 · n=56 | 1.95−0.89 · n=56 | 1.98−0.66 · n=55 | 2.07−0.30 · n=54 | 2.36−0.90 · n=55 | 2.46−1.40 · n=56 | 2.76−1.21 · n=55 | 2.83−1.18 · n=55 | 2.96−1.16 · n=55 | — | |
| KSFO | 4.15−3.95 · n=56 | 3.08−2.34 · n=56 | 2.55−1.49 · n=55 | 2.38−1.02 · n=54 | 2.24−0.92 · n=55 | 2.11−0.99 · n=56 | 2.36−1.23 · n=55 | 2.27−1.13 · n=55 | 2.26−1.40 · n=55 | — | |
| KTTN | 2.06+0.89 · n=55 | 2.62+2.14 · n=55 | 3.03+2.26 · n=54 | 2.97+2.25 · n=54 | 3.56+2.65 · n=54 | 3.56+2.20 · n=56 | 4.07+2.17 · n=55 | 3.98+2.37 · n=55 | 3.81+2.56 · n=54 | 4.79+1.67 · n=55 |
Against the NWS daily extremes (secondary)
This comparison scores four 6-hourly forecast samples against the true daily extreme, so it includes a sampling penalty. The size of that penalty depends on each model's own diurnal amplitude, which is one of the things this site measures, so these numbers are published for operational relevance and are never used for ranking.
Daily maximum vs NWS CLI
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 2.32−2.00 · n=56 | 2.57−2.05 · n=56 | 3.24−2.30 · n=55 | 3.13−2.62 · n=54 | 2.99−2.42 · n=55 | 3.87−3.14 · n=56 | 4.12−2.92 · n=55 | 4.39−2.45 · n=55 | 4.08−1.54 · n=55 | 4.24−2.28 · n=55 | |
| KAUS | 5.82−5.75 · n=56 | 6.12−6.00 · n=56 | 6.68−6.61 · n=55 | 6.49−6.44 · n=54 | 6.52−6.48 · n=55 | 6.09−5.90 · n=56 | 6.66−6.53 · n=55 | 7.58−7.08 · n=55 | 7.95−7.63 · n=55 | 8.52−7.80 · n=55 | |
| KBOS | 5.07−4.79 · n=56 | 4.73−4.34 · n=55 | 4.68−4.16 · n=54 | 4.43−3.48 · n=53 | 4.83−3.50 · n=54 | 5.96−4.66 · n=56 | 5.49−3.74 · n=54 | 5.25−3.69 · n=55 | 5.44−4.20 · n=55 | 6.50−4.22 · n=54 | |
| KDCA | 4.25−4.25 · n=56 | 3.71−3.41 · n=56 | 3.95−3.42 · n=55 | 4.10−3.44 · n=54 | 3.95−2.95 · n=55 | 4.96−3.40 · n=56 | 5.04−3.06 · n=55 | 5.29−3.60 · n=55 | 5.66−3.08 · n=55 | 6.56−3.55 · n=55 | |
| KDEN | 6.59−6.59 · n=56 | 6.12−6.04 · n=56 | 6.77−6.77 · n=55 | 6.55−6.32 · n=54 | 6.73−6.23 · n=55 | 7.65−6.84 · n=56 | 7.09−6.48 · n=55 | 6.94−5.53 · n=55 | 7.31−5.75 · n=55 | — | |
| KDFW | 5.42−5.42 · n=56 | 6.42−6.41 · n=56 | 6.97−6.97 · n=55 | 6.69−6.67 · n=54 | 7.07−6.99 · n=55 | 7.38−7.20 · n=56 | 7.55−7.49 · n=55 | 8.86−8.33 · n=55 | 9.14−8.99 · n=55 | 8.78−7.82 · n=55 | |
| KEWR | 5.32−5.31 · n=56 | 5.02−4.97 · n=56 | 5.02−4.84 · n=55 | 5.12−5.02 · n=54 | 5.33−4.82 · n=55 | 6.03−5.24 · n=56 | 6.01−4.77 · n=55 | 6.74−5.63 · n=55 | 6.13−5.01 · n=55 | 7.07−5.08 · n=55 | |
| KIAH | 5.08−5.03 · n=56 | 5.29−5.10 · n=56 | 5.56−5.15 · n=55 | 5.41−4.94 · n=54 | 5.96−5.62 · n=55 | 5.64−4.85 · n=56 | 5.99−5.44 · n=55 | 6.33−5.46 · n=55 | 6.89−6.53 · n=55 | 7.49−6.75 · n=55 | |
| KLAS | 5.55−5.27 · n=56 | 5.24−5.02 · n=56 | 5.49−5.29 · n=55 | 5.66−5.50 · n=54 | 5.31−5.06 · n=55 | 5.73−5.11 · n=56 | 6.02−4.19 · n=55 | 6.16−3.78 · n=55 | 6.68−4.74 · n=55 | — | |
| KLAX | 4.37−4.15 · n=56 | 4.47−4.17 · n=56 | 4.99−4.62 · n=55 | 5.21−4.72 · n=54 | 4.92−4.42 · n=55 | 4.83−4.10 · n=56 | 4.51−3.60 · n=55 | 5.12−3.99 · n=55 | 6.09−5.24 · n=55 | — | |
| KMIA | 4.47−4.46 · n=56 | 4.58−4.57 · n=56 | 4.47−4.42 · n=55 | 4.81−4.81 · n=54 | 4.94−4.82 · n=55 | 4.71−4.65 · n=56 | 4.62−4.38 · n=55 | 4.86−4.74 · n=55 | 4.92−4.68 · n=55 | 4.83−4.56 · n=55 | |
| KMSP | 4.68−4.57 · n=56 | 5.17−5.05 · n=56 | 5.50−5.11 · n=55 | 5.95−5.36 · n=54 | 6.33−5.53 · n=55 | 6.73−5.43 · n=56 | 6.60−5.43 · n=55 | 6.57−4.73 · n=55 | 6.45−3.73 · n=55 | 7.38−4.66 · n=55 | |
| KMSY | 3.93−3.93 · n=56 | 3.70−3.61 · n=56 | 3.83−3.79 · n=55 | 3.82−3.79 · n=54 | 4.39−4.34 · n=55 | 4.62−4.43 · n=56 | 4.24−4.13 · n=55 | 4.58−4.17 · n=55 | 4.78−4.23 · n=55 | 4.57−3.91 · n=55 | |
| KNYC | 2.66−2.44 · n=56 | 2.93−2.61 · n=56 | 2.99−2.50 · n=55 | 2.83−2.38 · n=54 | 3.68−2.41 · n=55 | 4.36−2.82 · n=56 | 4.40−2.36 · n=55 | 4.87−2.99 · n=55 | 4.72−2.47 · n=55 | 5.49−2.71 · n=55 | |
| KOKC | 6.44−6.21 · n=56 | 6.82−6.80 · n=56 | 7.35−7.18 · n=55 | 7.31−7.31 · n=54 | 7.78−7.68 · n=55 | 8.54−7.55 · n=56 | 9.05−8.39 · n=55 | 9.89−8.93 · n=55 | 9.12−8.71 · n=55 | 8.75−7.41 · n=55 | |
| KORD | 4.55−4.35 · n=56 | 4.39−4.07 · n=56 | 4.46−3.89 · n=55 | 4.82−3.99 · n=54 | 4.86−4.26 · n=55 | 5.16−4.39 · n=56 | 5.82−4.83 · n=55 | 5.97−4.80 · n=55 | 5.42−3.77 · n=55 | 5.99−3.25 · n=55 | |
| KPHL | 5.36−5.36 · n=56 | 4.70−4.52 · n=56 | 4.44−4.28 · n=55 | 4.64−4.42 · n=54 | 4.71−4.31 · n=55 | 5.34−4.36 · n=56 | 5.86−4.28 · n=55 | 5.69−4.70 · n=55 | 5.64−4.34 · n=55 | 6.44−4.40 · n=55 | |
| KPHX | 5.34−5.17 · n=56 | 5.22−4.92 · n=56 | 4.86−4.41 · n=55 | 5.46−4.65 · n=54 | 5.34−4.86 · n=55 | 5.12−4.14 · n=56 | 5.77−3.71 · n=55 | 6.41−3.84 · n=55 | 6.49−4.22 · n=55 | — | |
| KSAN | 4.87−4.87 · n=56 | 5.03−5.03 · n=56 | 5.01−4.96 · n=55 | 5.13−4.99 · n=54 | 5.28−5.09 · n=55 | 5.08−4.75 · n=56 | 5.16−4.69 · n=55 | 5.36−4.97 · n=55 | 6.35−5.69 · n=55 | — | |
| KSAT | 4.33−4.28 · n=56 | 4.75−4.66 · n=56 | 5.06−4.99 · n=55 | 5.01−4.81 · n=54 | 4.99−4.74 · n=55 | 4.69−4.42 · n=56 | 5.03−4.68 · n=55 | 5.71−5.34 · n=55 | 6.22−5.82 · n=55 | 6.84−6.19 · n=55 | |
| KSEA | 2.32−0.44 · n=56 | 3.07−0.57 · n=56 | 3.01+0.15 · n=55 | 2.86+0.09 · n=54 | 3.59−0.01 · n=55 | 3.85−0.81 · n=56 | 4.15−0.50 · n=55 | 5.43−0.88 · n=55 | 5.39−0.59 · n=55 | — | |
| KSFO | 5.07−4.85 · n=56 | 4.48−3.64 · n=56 | 4.58−3.59 · n=55 | 4.09−2.75 · n=54 | 3.95−2.83 · n=55 | 3.61−2.67 · n=56 | 4.81−3.36 · n=55 | 4.44−3.23 · n=55 | 5.34−4.23 · n=55 | — | |
| KTTN | 3.88−3.75 · n=56 | 3.18−2.85 · n=56 | 3.23−2.61 · n=55 | 3.25−2.68 · n=54 | 3.77−2.53 · n=55 | 4.58−2.90 · n=56 | 4.81−2.41 · n=55 | 4.92−3.10 · n=55 | 4.71−2.72 · n=55 | 5.69−2.68 · n=55 |
Daily minimum vs NWS CLI
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 2.73−2.37 · n=56 | 2.30−1.08 · n=56 | 2.03−0.89 · n=55 | 2.34−0.36 · n=54 | 2.12−0.40 · n=55 | 2.52−0.15 · n=56 | 2.40−0.41 · n=55 | 2.93−0.34 · n=55 | 3.19+0.30 · n=55 | 2.91+0.88 · n=55 | |
| KAUS | 3.19+2.69 · n=56 | 2.71+2.06 · n=56 | 2.63+1.78 · n=55 | 3.05+2.40 · n=54 | 3.03+2.33 · n=55 | 3.10+2.32 · n=56 | 3.69+2.80 · n=55 | 3.86+2.86 · n=55 | 3.94+2.31 · n=55 | 4.75+2.02 · n=55 | |
| KBOS | 1.76+0.12 · n=56 | 1.84+0.53 · n=55 | 2.13+1.10 · n=54 | 1.94+0.87 · n=53 | 2.04+1.05 · n=54 | 2.68+0.75 · n=56 | 3.01+0.97 · n=54 | 2.99+0.88 · n=55 | 2.92+0.74 · n=55 | 3.71+0.50 · n=54 | |
| KDCA | 1.92−1.30 · n=56 | 1.77+0.52 · n=56 | 2.27+1.09 · n=55 | 2.03+0.63 · n=54 | 2.44+0.76 · n=55 | 3.04+0.77 · n=56 | 3.48+0.45 · n=55 | 3.67+0.59 · n=55 | 3.34+0.78 · n=55 | 4.01+0.23 · n=55 | |
| KDEN | 2.05+0.10 · n=56 | 2.45+0.13 · n=56 | 2.69−0.07 · n=55 | 2.77+0.04 · n=54 | 2.56+0.49 · n=55 | 3.18+0.02 · n=56 | 3.05−0.38 · n=55 | 3.56+0.40 · n=55 | 4.54−0.70 · n=55 | — | |
| KDFW | 1.91−0.76 · n=56 | 2.20−1.93 · n=56 | 2.86−2.33 · n=55 | 2.68−2.05 · n=54 | 2.85−2.21 · n=55 | 3.19−2.62 · n=56 | 3.62−2.04 · n=55 | 4.02−1.95 · n=55 | 4.57−2.25 · n=55 | 4.99−2.38 · n=55 | |
| KEWR | 2.63+2.08 · n=56 | 2.47+1.78 · n=56 | 2.80+1.98 · n=55 | 2.86+1.75 · n=54 | 3.07+1.82 · n=55 | 3.27+1.83 · n=56 | 3.43+1.79 · n=55 | 3.55+1.84 · n=55 | 3.59+2.01 · n=55 | 4.47+1.23 · n=55 | |
| KIAH | 2.40+2.08 · n=56 | 2.08+1.53 · n=56 | 2.38+1.57 · n=55 | 2.47+1.46 · n=54 | 2.84+1.64 · n=55 | 2.97+1.64 · n=56 | 3.24+1.80 · n=55 | 3.13+2.02 · n=55 | 3.37+1.84 · n=55 | 3.51+1.57 · n=55 | |
| KLAS | 4.60−4.42 · n=56 | 3.85−3.39 · n=56 | 3.90−3.62 · n=55 | 4.00−3.52 · n=54 | 3.75−3.26 · n=55 | 4.33−3.50 · n=56 | 4.26−3.10 · n=55 | 4.22−2.58 · n=55 | 4.43−2.56 · n=55 | — | |
| KLAX | 2.01−0.55 · n=56 | 1.96−0.33 · n=56 | 2.28−0.58 · n=55 | 2.57−0.70 · n=54 | 2.73−0.62 · n=55 | 2.68−0.42 · n=56 | 3.25−0.14 · n=55 | 3.14−0.28 · n=55 | 3.15−0.81 · n=55 | — | |
| KMIA | 3.46+3.46 · n=56 | 3.23+3.15 · n=56 | 3.36+3.28 · n=55 | 3.27+3.20 · n=54 | 3.44+3.28 · n=55 | 3.40+3.25 · n=56 | 3.35+3.20 · n=55 | 3.40+3.20 · n=55 | 3.37+3.08 · n=55 | 3.25+3.11 · n=55 | |
| KMSP | 2.45−1.36 · n=56 | 1.88−0.73 · n=56 | 2.07−1.19 · n=55 | 2.26−1.38 · n=54 | 2.83−1.01 · n=55 | 3.80−1.65 · n=56 | 4.29−2.52 · n=55 | 4.58−2.00 · n=55 | 5.05−0.86 · n=55 | 5.37−0.80 · n=55 | |
| KMSY | 2.29+1.79 · n=56 | 2.90+2.58 · n=56 | 2.86+2.52 · n=55 | 3.38+2.74 · n=54 | 3.14+2.43 · n=55 | 3.42+2.59 · n=56 | 3.47+2.85 · n=55 | 3.56+2.96 · n=55 | 3.84+3.27 · n=55 | 4.36+3.61 · n=55 | |
| KNYC | 2.08+1.73 · n=56 | 2.05+1.49 · n=56 | 2.36+1.80 · n=55 | 2.21+1.56 · n=54 | 2.64+1.44 · n=55 | 3.02+1.45 · n=56 | 3.11+1.20 · n=55 | 3.36+1.56 · n=55 | 3.29+1.29 · n=55 | 3.77+0.83 · n=55 | |
| KOKC | 3.20+1.90 · n=56 | 2.51+1.32 · n=56 | 2.69+1.03 · n=55 | 2.79+0.88 · n=54 | 2.61+0.80 · n=55 | 3.34+0.56 · n=56 | 4.27+1.18 · n=55 | 4.65+0.80 · n=55 | 4.58+0.44 · n=55 | 4.57+1.11 · n=55 | |
| KORD | 1.91+0.48 · n=56 | 2.30+0.96 · n=56 | 2.68+1.41 · n=55 | 2.61+1.31 · n=54 | 2.93+0.80 · n=55 | 3.62+0.85 · n=56 | 4.09+0.94 · n=55 | 4.28+0.30 · n=55 | 4.85+0.94 · n=55 | 5.68+1.50 · n=55 | |
| KPHL | 1.80−0.15 · n=56 | 1.79+0.99 · n=56 | 2.23+1.28 · n=55 | 2.41+1.09 · n=54 | 2.72+0.96 · n=55 | 3.40+1.16 · n=56 | 3.65+0.67 · n=55 | 3.46+0.91 · n=55 | 3.57+1.02 · n=55 | 4.48+0.27 · n=55 | |
| KPHX | 5.20−4.66 · n=56 | 4.85−4.01 · n=56 | 5.31−4.40 · n=55 | 4.94−4.09 · n=54 | 4.79−3.90 · n=55 | 4.97−3.81 · n=56 | 5.20−4.24 · n=55 | 5.56−4.26 · n=55 | 5.70−4.58 · n=55 | — | |
| KSAN | 2.54−0.56 · n=56 | 2.59−0.54 · n=56 | 2.65−0.38 · n=55 | 3.10−0.47 · n=54 | 3.24−0.15 · n=55 | 3.39+0.01 · n=56 | 3.65−0.13 · n=55 | 3.62−0.01 · n=55 | 3.06−0.44 · n=55 | — | |
| KSAT | 1.51−0.43 · n=56 | 1.85−0.32 · n=56 | 1.87−0.89 · n=55 | 2.07−0.30 · n=54 | 2.07−0.39 · n=55 | 1.90−0.18 · n=56 | 2.21+0.04 · n=55 | 2.38+0.01 · n=55 | 2.87−0.48 · n=55 | 3.63−0.53 · n=55 | |
| KSEA | 2.12+0.31 · n=56 | 1.62+0.60 · n=56 | 1.76+0.82 · n=55 | 1.94+1.29 · n=54 | 2.09+0.46 · n=55 | 2.17+0.23 · n=56 | 2.41+0.29 · n=55 | 2.43+0.41 · n=55 | 2.70+0.21 · n=55 | — | |
| KSFO | 3.57−3.21 · n=56 | 2.64−1.63 · n=56 | 2.12−0.74 · n=55 | 2.15−0.33 · n=54 | 1.94−0.26 · n=55 | 1.86−0.31 · n=56 | 2.02−0.50 · n=55 | 2.01−0.38 · n=55 | 1.95−0.61 · n=55 | — | |
| KTTN | 4.07+3.88 · n=56 | 4.97+4.92 · n=56 | 5.30+5.27 · n=55 | 5.15+5.01 · n=54 | 5.36+5.19 · n=55 | 5.72+5.16 · n=56 | 5.47+5.05 · n=55 | 5.50+5.07 · n=55 | 6.09+5.30 · n=55 | 5.93+4.30 · n=55 |
Month by month
MAE °F at lead day 1, 00Z, bilinear, instantaneous temperature, per station.
| Month | KATL | KAUS | KBOS | KDCA | KDEN | KDFW | KEWR | KIAH | KLAS | KLAX | KMIA | KMSP | KMSY | KNYC | KOKC | KORD | KPHL | KPHX | KSAN | KSAT | KSEA | KSFO | KTTN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 2.74-1.46 · n=68 | 2.73-0.26 · n=68 | 2.70-1.89 · n=67 | 1.73-0.38 · n=68 | 3.21-1.44 · n=68 | 3.38-3.04 · n=68 | 2.60-1.04 · n=68 | 2.59-0.80 · n=68 | 3.26-2.88 · n=68 | 3.75-2.87 · n=68 | 1.60-0.32 · n=68 | 3.41-2.73 · n=68 | 2.04-0.13 · n=68 | 1.95-0.27 · n=67 | 2.71-0.02 · n=68 | 2.33-1.75 · n=68 | 2.21-0.74 · n=68 | 4.27-3.07 · n=68 | 3.76-2.58 · n=68 | 2.01-0.77 · n=68 | 2.66+0.20 · n=68 | 3.51-2.64 · n=68 | 2.89+1.89 · n=68 |
| 2026-09 | 3.08-1.17 · n=80 | 2.31-1.40 · n=80 | 2.93-1.86 · n=80 | 2.57-1.62 · n=80 | 3.18-1.21 · n=80 | 3.61-3.29 · n=80 | 2.86-2.33 · n=80 | 2.03-0.19 · n=80 | 4.53-4.40 · n=80 | 2.93-2.02 · n=80 | 2.40+0.66 · n=80 | 2.70-1.92 · n=80 | 1.41+0.28 · n=80 | 2.27-1.13 · n=80 | 3.32-2.34 · n=80 | 2.71-1.06 · n=80 | 2.91-2.65 · n=80 | 5.32-3.80 · n=80 | 3.31-2.61 · n=80 | 2.44-0.97 · n=80 | 2.78+0.34 · n=80 | 3.34-2.15 · n=80 | 2.04-0.04 · n=79 |
| 2026-08 | 2.76-1.44 · n=76 | 1.97+0.38 · n=76 | 4.08-3.32 · n=72 | 2.87-2.01 · n=76 | 3.61-1.40 · n=76 | 2.95-2.42 · n=76 | 3.10-2.28 · n=76 | 2.05-0.31 · n=76 | 5.44-4.85 · n=76 | 1.92+1.08 · n=76 | 2.26-1.15 · n=76 | 2.97-2.01 · n=76 | 2.14-0.27 · n=76 | 2.00-0.84 · n=76 | 3.27-1.28 · n=76 | 2.36-1.11 · n=76 | 2.95-2.16 · n=76 | 5.25-4.23 · n=76 | 1.57-0.50 · n=76 | 1.72-0.05 · n=76 | 2.97+1.53 · n=76 | 2.85+0.92 · n=76 | 1.97+0.88 · n=76 |
| 2026-07 | 2.64-1.01 · n=48 | 2.37+1.90 · n=48 | 4.40-3.65 · n=46 | 3.19-2.46 · n=48 | 3.63-2.08 · n=47 | 1.94-1.38 · n=48 | 4.07-2.84 · n=48 | 1.45+0.08 · n=48 | 6.19-6.19 · n=48 | 2.43+1.33 · n=48 | 2.75-1.06 · n=48 | 3.43-2.87 · n=48 | 1.93-0.56 · n=48 | 3.13-1.48 · n=48 | 3.08+2.63 · n=48 | 2.39-0.22 · n=48 | 3.31-2.71 · n=48 | 5.03-3.55 · n=48 | 2.42+0.15 · n=48 | 2.27+1.53 · n=48 | 2.53+0.03 · n=48 | 2.85-0.91 · n=48 | 2.53-0.23 · n=48 |
| 2026-06 | 2.78-1.74 · n=64 | 1.65+0.16 · n=64 | 4.71-3.65 · n=64 | 3.35-2.78 · n=64 | 4.43-1.59 · n=64 | 2.11-0.31 · n=64 | 5.06-4.74 · n=64 | 1.94+0.11 · n=64 | 4.95-4.94 · n=63 | 2.13-0.24 · n=63 | 2.32-1.00 · n=63 | 3.39-2.76 · n=64 | 1.99-1.32 · n=64 | 3.42-2.56 · n=64 | 2.92+0.24 · n=64 | 2.70-1.19 · n=64 | 4.14-3.80 · n=64 | 3.95-2.97 · n=64 | 2.82-1.95 · n=64 | 1.92+0.63 · n=64 | 2.21+0.19 · n=64 | 2.83-0.23 · n=64 | 2.81-1.50 · n=64 |
| 2026-05 | 3.22-2.65 · n=75 | 3.37+1.17 · n=74 | 5.38-5.01 · n=75 | 2.93-2.49 · n=75 | 3.37-0.31 · n=75 | 3.12-1.25 · n=74 | 6.03-5.99 · n=75 | 2.72-1.11 · n=75 | 3.88-3.53 · n=75 | 2.93-1.55 · n=75 | 2.22-1.85 · n=73 | 3.18-2.25 · n=76 | 2.94-1.56 · n=74 | 4.43-4.29 · n=76 | 3.03+0.48 · n=75 | 3.72-2.09 · n=75 | 4.61-4.44 · n=75 | 4.22-3.20 · n=75 | 3.80-3.43 · n=75 | 3.12+0.62 · n=76 | 3.43+1.74 · n=75 | 2.88-0.93 · n=75 | 3.13-2.15 · n=75 |
| 2026-04 | 3.38-2.73 · n=96 | 2.63-0.19 · n=96 | 4.33-2.39 · n=96 | 4.22-2.94 · n=96 | 3.90-0.01 · n=96 | 2.29-1.27 · n=95 | 5.14-3.36 · n=96 | 2.40-1.21 · n=96 | 2.79-2.42 · n=96 | 2.76-2.59 · n=96 | 1.62-0.96 · n=96 | 3.29-2.76 · n=96 | 2.59-2.05 · n=96 | 4.84-3.06 · n=96 | 2.30+0.68 · n=96 | 4.41-1.13 · n=96 | 5.17-3.51 · n=96 | 3.97-3.46 · n=96 | 3.27-2.98 · n=96 | 2.79-0.13 · n=96 | 2.38-0.05 · n=96 | 2.27-1.32 · n=96 | 4.34-0.81 · n=96 |
| 2026-03 | 3.41-2.58 · n=124 | 3.74-2.20 · n=124 | 3.72-2.99 · n=120 | 4.17-2.49 · n=124 | 4.93-2.53 · n=124 | 3.47-2.23 · n=124 | 4.81-4.13 · n=124 | 2.76-2.32 · n=124 | 4.13-3.86 · n=124 | 3.38-1.57 · n=124 | 2.24-0.49 · n=124 | 4.20-3.42 · n=124 | 3.02-2.12 · n=124 | 4.77-3.81 · n=124 | 3.69-0.93 · n=124 | 4.56-2.56 · n=124 | 4.62-3.80 · n=124 | 4.48-3.85 · n=124 | 3.00-1.67 · n=123 | 3.25-2.17 · n=124 | 2.45-1.11 · n=124 | 3.65-3.27 · n=124 | 3.86-1.91 · n=122 |
| 2026-02 | 3.86-3.32 · n=111 | 4.49-1.40 · n=112 | 3.21-1.81 · n=112 | 3.62-0.37 · n=112 | 5.30-4.32 · n=112 | 3.71-2.72 · n=111 | 3.11-1.70 · n=110 | 3.64-2.66 · n=112 | 3.18-2.75 · n=112 | 3.07-2.17 · n=112 | 3.12+0.80 · n=111 | 4.38-3.92 · n=112 | 3.45-2.27 · n=112 | 3.07-1.34 · n=112 | 3.63-1.97 · n=111 | 3.53-2.80 · n=112 | 3.07-1.46 · n=112 | 4.26-3.99 · n=112 | 2.99-1.32 · n=112 | 3.80-2.55 · n=112 | 2.82-2.33 · n=112 | 2.29-1.65 · n=112 | 2.96+1.29 · n=110 |
| 2026-01 | 3.79-2.48 · n=120 | 3.58-1.40 · n=120 | 2.37-0.87 · n=118 | 3.46-0.88 · n=119 | 5.09-4.28 · n=120 | 2.95-1.20 · n=120 | 2.92-1.59 · n=120 | 3.63-1.80 · n=120 | 2.22-1.75 · n=120 | 2.82-1.60 · n=120 | 3.02+0.84 · n=120 | 4.86-4.58 · n=120 | 3.28-1.02 · n=120 | 2.63-1.06 · n=119 | 3.59+0.66 · n=120 | 2.78-1.96 · n=120 | 3.61-2.09 · n=120 | 4.48-4.34 · n=120 | 3.51+1.35 · n=120 | 3.33-1.88 · n=120 | 3.22-2.80 · n=120 | 2.25-1.73 · n=120 | 2.92+1.06 · n=120 |
Source and licence
Where the numbers come from, what may be done with them, and what was — deliberately — not done to the forecast before scoring it.
Where it comes from
aiwp · FOUR · GFS initial conditions
Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.
Licence
NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.
Post-processing
None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.