FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) (fourcastnet_gfs)
source aiwp · product FOUR · initial conditions from GFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC.
Scores use the latest model version segment, FOUR_v200, starting 2026-08-28. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F by station
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 3.67-3.67 · n=2 | 3.43-3.43 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KAUS | 5.20-5.20 · n=2 | 5.50-5.50 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KBOS | 4.77-4.27 · n=2 | 6.67-6.67 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDCA | 4.14-4.14 · n=2 | 3.63-3.63 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDEN | 7.39-7.39 · n=2 | 4.15-4.15 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDFW | 3.95-3.95 · n=2 | 3.96-3.96 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KEWR | 2.79-2.79 · n=2 | 2.01-2.01 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KIAH | 3.88-3.88 · n=2 | 3.39-3.39 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAS | 5.26-5.26 · n=2 | 4.45-4.45 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAX | 3.32-3.32 · n=2 | 2.75-2.75 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMIA | 4.54-4.54 · n=2 | 5.33-5.33 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSP | 5.20-5.20 · n=2 | 6.01-6.01 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSY | 4.07-4.07 · n=2 | 2.88-2.88 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KNYC | 1.69+0.53 · n=2 | 0.60+0.60 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KOKC | 5.89-5.89 · n=2 | 6.24-6.24 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KORD | 1.52-1.52 · n=2 | 2.63-2.63 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHL | 3.94-3.94 · n=2 | 4.72-4.72 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHX | 10.57-10.57 · n=2 | 12.64-12.64 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAN | 2.93-2.93 · n=2 | 0.54-0.54 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAT | 4.35-4.35 · n=2 | 3.79-3.79 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSEA | 3.72-3.72 · n=2 | 1.74-1.74 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSFO | 5.01-5.01 · n=2 | 1.41-1.41 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KTTN | 2.60-1.17 · n=2 | 1.20-1.20 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F by station
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 3.40-3.40 · n=2 | 0.09-0.09 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KAUS | 4.48+4.48 · n=2 | 3.71+3.71 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KBOS | 3.71-3.71 · n=2 | 3.06-3.06 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDCA | 2.53-2.53 · n=2 | 0.28-0.28 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDEN | 0.22-0.22 · n=2 | 0.06+0.06 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KDFW | 0.78+0.78 · n=2 | 0.66-0.66 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KEWR | 2.08+2.08 · n=2 | 2.78+2.78 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KIAH | 2.10+2.10 · n=2 | 2.47+2.47 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAS | 6.12-6.12 · n=2 | 6.18-6.18 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KLAX | 2.12+2.12 · n=2 | 1.88+1.88 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMIA | 4.05+4.05 · n=2 | 0.61+0.61 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSP | 1.51-1.51 · n=2 | 2.36-2.36 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KMSY | 2.24-1.15 · n=2 | 2.27-2.27 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KNYC | 1.55+1.01 · n=2 | 0.24-0.24 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KOKC | 4.21+4.21 · n=2 | 1.54+1.54 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KORD | 1.56+1.56 · n=2 | 2.97+2.97 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHL | 1.18+0.85 · n=2 | 3.96+3.96 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KPHX | 5.67-5.67 · n=2 | 6.54-6.54 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAN | 0.79+0.05 · n=2 | 0.66-0.66 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSAT | 2.98-2.98 · n=2 | 2.00-2.00 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSEA | 1.75+1.75 · n=2 | 0.01+0.01 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KSFO | 4.85-4.85 · n=2 | 2.12-2.12 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| KTTN | 4.88+4.88 · n=2 | 9.37+9.37 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month by month
MAE °F at lead day 1, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum, per station.
| Month | KATL | KAUS | KBOS | KDCA | KDEN | KDFW | KEWR | KIAH | KLAS | KLAX | KMIA | KMSP | KMSY | KNYC | KOKC | KORD | KPHL | KPHX | KSAN | KSAT | KSEA | KSFO | KTTN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 3.43-3.43 · n=1 | 5.50-5.50 · n=1 | 6.67-6.67 · n=1 | 3.63-3.63 · n=1 | 4.15-4.15 · n=1 | 3.96-3.96 · n=1 | 2.01-2.01 · n=1 | 3.39-3.39 · n=1 | 4.45-4.45 · n=1 | 2.75-2.75 · n=1 | 5.33-5.33 · n=1 | 6.01-6.01 · n=1 | 2.88-2.88 · n=1 | 0.60+0.60 · n=1 | 6.24-6.24 · n=1 | 2.63-2.63 · n=1 | 4.72-4.72 · n=1 | 12.64-12.64 · n=1 | 0.54-0.54 · n=1 | 3.79-3.79 · n=1 | 1.74-1.74 · n=1 | 1.41-1.41 · n=1 | 1.20-1.20 · n=1 |
Source and licence
Where it comes from
aiwp · FOUR · GFS initial conditions
Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.
Licence
NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.
Post-processing
None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences