KATL — Atlanta Hartsfield
33.6403, -84.4269 · 313 m· standard offset UTC-5 h · truth product CLIATL
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 4.36-4.36 · n=30 | 4.31-4.31 · n=29 | 4.38-4.37 · n=28 | 4.30-4.30 · n=27 | 4.21-4.21 · n=26 | 4.77-4.77 · n=25 | 4.89-4.68 · n=24 | 4.88-4.80 · n=23 | 5.53-5.53 · n=22 | 5.79-5.79 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 6.59-6.59 · n=2 | 7.11-7.11 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 6.69-6.69 · n=3 | 6.26-6.26 · n=2 | 7.52-7.52 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 3.67-3.67 · n=2 | 3.43-3.43 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 4.43-4.43 · n=3 | 2.78-2.78 · n=2 | 4.64-4.64 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 1.17+0.15 · n=30 | 2.45-0.88 · n=29 | 3.13-0.78 · n=28 | 2.94+0.15 · n=27 | 3.26-0.72 · n=26 | 4.02-0.60 · n=25 | 4.91-0.67 · n=24 | 2.98-0.54 · n=23 | 3.71-0.27 · n=22 | 4.97-1.54 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 5.04-5.04 · n=2 | 6.18-6.18 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 5.90-5.90 · n=28 | 5.93-5.93 · n=27 | 5.81-5.81 · n=26 | 5.56-5.56 · n=25 | 5.14-5.13 · n=25 | 5.04-5.02 · n=25 | 5.35-5.09 · n=24 | 5.42-5.20 · n=23 | 5.65-5.36 · n=22 | 6.02-5.78 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 2.64-2.38 · n=24 | 2.08-1.53 · n=23 | 2.57-1.55 · n=22 | 3.29-1.14 · n=22 | 4.00-2.08 · n=20 | 3.74-1.91 · n=18 | 3.12-0.12 · n=19 | 3.48-0.29 · n=18 | 2.62-0.28 · n=17 | 3.54-1.11 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 2.50-2.50 · n=2 | 3.98-3.98 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 3.28-3.28 · n=3 | 2.86-2.86 · n=2 | 4.71-4.71 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 2.59-0.06 · n=90 | 3.28-0.21 · n=90 | 3.52-0.30 · n=90 | 3.87-0.36 · n=90 | 4.12-0.39 · n=90 | 4.16-0.49 · n=90 | 4.18-0.60 · n=90 | 4.03-0.74 · n=90 | 4.26-0.86 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 1.34-0.40 · n=30 | 1.48-0.27 · n=29 | 1.88-0.37 · n=28 | 1.70-0.46 · n=27 | 1.79-0.25 · n=26 | 1.94-0.14 · n=25 | 1.71-0.01 · n=24 | 1.93-0.04 · n=23 | 1.99-0.04 · n=22 | 2.16-0.08 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 1.27-1.27 · n=2 | 0.51-0.51 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 1.87-1.87 · n=3 | 1.67-1.67 · n=2 | 1.31-1.31 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 3.40-3.40 · n=2 | 0.09-0.09 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 3.33-3.33 · n=3 | 0.89-0.89 · n=2 | 0.21+0.21 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 1.87+1.20 · n=30 | 2.15+1.42 · n=29 | 2.07+1.29 · n=28 | 2.40+1.70 · n=27 | 2.56+1.60 · n=26 | 2.97+2.01 · n=25 | 2.79+1.67 · n=24 | 2.70+1.08 · n=23 | 3.24+1.48 · n=22 | 3.85+0.81 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 1.43-1.43 · n=2 | 0.62-0.62 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 1.54-0.83 · n=28 | 1.63-0.60 · n=27 | 1.92-0.57 · n=26 | 1.85-0.42 · n=25 | 1.75-0.09 · n=25 | 1.96+0.03 · n=25 | 2.03+0.22 · n=24 | 2.55+0.25 · n=23 | 2.55+0.20 · n=22 | 2.62+0.16 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 1.28-0.36 · n=24 | 1.93+0.19 · n=23 | 2.05+0.22 · n=22 | 2.55+0.62 · n=22 | 2.44+0.50 · n=20 | 2.24+0.47 · n=18 | 2.31+1.32 · n=19 | 2.74+1.18 · n=18 | 2.53+1.48 · n=17 | 2.66+1.72 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 1.35-1.35 · n=2 | 0.45-0.45 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 1.45-1.45 · n=3 | 1.46-1.46 · n=2 | 0.83-0.83 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 1.93-0.09 · n=90 | 2.43-0.19 · n=90 | 2.76-0.22 · n=90 | 3.11-0.22 · n=90 | 3.17-0.23 · n=90 | 3.40-0.27 · n=90 | 3.53-0.29 · n=90 | 3.46-0.34 · n=90 | 3.56-0.38 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month by month
MAE °F at lead day 1, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum — the seasonal slice behind the window averages. A model that is excellent in one season and poor in another shows up here and nowhere else.
| Month | aifs_single | aurora_gfs | aurora_ifs | fourcastnet_gfs | fourcastnet_ifs | gfs | graphcast_gfs | graphcast_ifs | ifs_hres | pangu_gfs | pangu_ifs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 4.31-4.31 · n=29 | 7.11-7.11 · n=1 | 6.26-6.26 · n=2 | 3.43-3.43 · n=1 | 2.78-2.78 · n=2 | 2.45-0.88 · n=29 | 6.18-6.18 · n=1 | 5.93-5.93 · n=27 | 2.08-1.53 · n=23 | 3.98-3.98 · n=1 | 2.86-2.86 · n=2 |
| 2026-01 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5.47-5.47 · n=6 | — | — | — |
Model availability at this station
| Model | Period | Scored days | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Single | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 29 | |
| Aurora (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| Aurora (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| NCEP GFS | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 29 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| GraphCast (IFS init) | 2026-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 33 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRES | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 23 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| Persistence (baseline) | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 972 |
Observed truth — last 30 days
| Climatological day | Tmax °F | Tmin °F | Source | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | 90 | 73 | OBS | obs_fallback |
| 2026-08-29 | 89 | 74 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-28 | 93 | 73 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-27 | 89 | 71 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-26 | 91 | 73 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-25 | 94 | 74 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-24 | 92 | 72 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-23 | 93 | 74 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-22 | 94 | 73 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-21 | 94 | 74 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-20 | 97 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-19 | 95 | 72 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-18 | 92 | 73 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-17 | 98 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-16 | 96 | 79 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-15 | 96 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-14 | 95 | 77 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-13 | 95 | 78 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-12 | 93 | 71 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-11 | 93 | 72 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-10 | 94 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-09 | 93 | 73 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-08 | 92 | 73 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-07 | 87 | 72 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-06 | 89 | 72 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-05 | 90 | 72 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-04 | 86 | 73 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-03 | 87 | 70 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-02 | 92 | 74 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-01 | 86 | 76 | CLI |
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences