CastCheck v0.3.1 · data through 2026-10-28

Model

Aurora (IFS init)

aurora_ifs

source aiwp · product AURO · initial conditions from IFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC. Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

aiwp IFS initAURO_v100
Window
the last 90 days
Init
00Z
Interpolation
bilinear
Data through
2026-10-28
Updated
Next update

Instantaneous temperature — MAE °F by stationt2

Scored against the observed 2 m temperature at the same instant (ASOS routine METAR). This is the headline variable: the same four instants on the forecast and the observation side. These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

the last 90 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL3.10−2.77 · n=823.23−2.71 · n=823.28−2.73 · n=823.35−2.68 · n=823.49−2.56 · n=813.53−2.53 · n=813.78−2.35 · n=814.10−2.17 · n=814.30−2.10 · n=814.64−1.85 · n=81KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KAUS2.63−0.13 · n=822.87−0.26 · n=822.84−0.51 · n=822.97−0.56 · n=823.09−0.55 · n=813.13−0.81 · n=813.37−0.66 · n=813.69−0.68 · n=813.87−0.75 · n=814.04−0.68 · n=81KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KBOS2.45−1.88 · n=772.57−1.93 · n=772.62−1.97 · n=772.68−1.73 · n=772.95−1.75 · n=763.22−1.65 · n=773.56−1.20 · n=774.06−0.94 · n=764.44−0.87 · n=764.97−0.78 · n=76KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDCA2.82−2.60 · n=822.80−2.39 · n=822.88−2.37 · n=823.09−2.40 · n=823.39−2.56 · n=813.69−2.61 · n=813.94−2.12 · n=813.96−1.79 · n=814.16−1.61 · n=814.90−1.48 · n=81KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDEN2.44−0.01 · n=822.62−0.49 · n=822.88−0.73 · n=823.15−0.99 · n=823.63−1.22 · n=814.31−1.32 · n=814.71−1.28 · n=815.01−1.49 · n=815.46−2.06 · n=81—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KDFW1.88−1.38 · n=822.40−1.94 · n=822.72−2.29 · n=823.09−2.45 · n=823.40−2.61 · n=813.62−2.86 · n=813.93−2.91 · n=814.13−3.03 · n=814.41−2.97 · n=814.65−2.97 · n=81KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KEWR2.31−1.78 · n=822.47−1.81 · n=822.53−1.66 · n=822.64−1.59 · n=822.98−1.63 · n=813.12−1.61 · n=813.55−1.10 · n=813.86−0.79 · n=814.05−0.70 · n=814.52−0.61 · n=81KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KIAH2.43−1.55 · n=822.74−1.78 · n=822.79−1.89 · n=822.99−1.98 · n=823.12−1.91 · n=813.30−2.00 · n=813.47−1.98 · n=813.70−1.82 · n=813.86−1.92 · n=813.98−1.89 · n=81KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KLAS3.11−2.93 · n=823.43−3.07 · n=823.67−3.29 · n=823.93−3.37 · n=824.06−3.25 · n=814.26−3.20 · n=814.60−3.19 · n=814.77−3.01 · n=815.05−3.00 · n=81—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KLAX1.89−1.32 · n=822.32−1.89 · n=822.68−2.36 · n=823.10−2.79 · n=823.22−2.95 · n=813.39−3.03 · n=813.51−2.93 · n=813.68−2.79 · n=813.90−2.76 · n=81—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMIA2.04−1.20 · n=822.26−1.45 · n=822.41−1.66 · n=822.53−1.63 · n=822.67−1.72 · n=812.70−1.68 · n=812.78−1.70 · n=812.80−1.57 · n=812.91−1.57 · n=812.91−1.59 · n=81KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMSP2.45−1.90 · n=822.70−1.99 · n=823.02−1.99 · n=823.27−1.92 · n=823.37−1.80 · n=813.71−1.78 · n=814.15−1.71 · n=814.81−1.61 · n=814.93−1.78 · n=815.19−2.10 · n=81KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KMSY2.11−0.63 · n=822.36−0.87 · n=822.46−1.05 · n=822.50−1.30 · n=822.62−1.36 · n=812.81−1.40 · n=813.02−1.23 · n=813.27−1.08 · n=813.35−1.00 · n=813.47−0.89 · n=81KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KNYC1.59−0.34 · n=811.74−0.36 · n=811.89−0.18 · n=812.01−0.05 · n=812.32−0.12 · n=802.42−0.16 · n=802.96+0.37 · n=803.22+0.65 · n=803.57+0.75 · n=804.08+0.82 · n=80KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KOKC3.08+0.31 · n=823.53−0.25 · n=823.82−1.00 · n=823.90−1.32 · n=824.16−1.52 · n=814.32−1.76 · n=814.75−2.13 · n=814.97−2.38 · n=815.43−2.13 · n=815.76−2.30 · n=81KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KORD1.80−1.16 · n=821.98−1.12 · n=822.27−1.28 · n=822.59−1.43 · n=822.78−1.41 · n=813.05−0.98 · n=813.38−0.73 · n=813.94−0.64 · n=814.36−0.52 · n=814.46−0.77 · n=81KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KPHL2.96−2.70 · n=822.95−2.55 · n=822.98−2.41 · n=823.10−2.38 · n=823.35−2.35 · n=813.43−2.43 · n=813.75−1.84 · n=813.92−1.50 · n=814.12−1.41 · n=814.66−1.30 · n=81KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KPHX3.45−2.82 · n=823.84−3.01 · n=824.02−3.09 · n=824.23−3.35 · n=824.46−3.21 · n=814.68−3.15 · n=815.00−2.86 · n=815.23−2.92 · n=815.63−2.78 · n=81—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSAN2.40−2.07 · n=822.81−2.52 · n=823.22−3.01 · n=823.55−3.35 · n=823.68−3.46 · n=813.82−3.50 · n=813.90−3.44 · n=814.11−3.45 · n=814.16−3.39 · n=81—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSAT1.80−0.91 · n=822.07−1.21 · n=822.24−1.57 · n=822.32−1.63 · n=822.52−1.67 · n=812.63−1.89 · n=812.90−1.87 · n=813.22−1.83 · n=813.38−1.83 · n=813.52−1.79 · n=81KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSEA2.11−0.90 · n=822.20−0.85 · n=822.19−0.78 · n=822.28−0.68 · n=822.39−0.71 · n=812.71−0.30 · n=813.05−0.03 · n=813.38+0.27 · n=813.63+0.76 · n=81—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KSFO2.38−1.58 · n=822.66−1.88 · n=822.84−2.22 · n=822.96−2.40 · n=822.95−2.43 · n=813.14−2.56 · n=813.24−2.47 · n=813.23−2.33 · n=813.39−2.24 · n=81—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2
KTTN1.55+0.21 · n=811.75+0.33 · n=812.03+0.47 · n=812.19+0.52 · n=812.52+0.55 · n=802.70+0.58 · n=803.41+1.23 · n=803.72+1.51 · n=803.98+1.49 · n=804.62+1.70 · n=80KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, t2

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

+ model too warm − model too cold bias interval includes zero ★ lowest MAE among ranked models (n ≥ 30) = not distinguishable from the leader ▼ worse than the leader ▲ better than the leader — all three Holm-corrected within this table, over the family of comparisons against the leader; the uncorrected verdict for every pair is published in the pairwise table of each permanent link and in pairwise_latest.csv.gzn < 30 greyed and unranked CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval on the group's own days, and reads — when it could not be computed skill reads — when fewer than 10 days are common to the model and the baseline: the ratio of two means over a handful of shared days is not a number worth printing

Sampled daily maximum — MAE °F by stationtmax_s

Scored against the maximum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

the last 90 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL2.05−1.81 · n=822.29−2.02 · n=822.49−2.10 · n=822.75−2.18 · n=823.02−2.05 · n=813.15−2.01 · n=813.66−1.94 · n=813.89−2.03 · n=814.32−1.96 · n=814.51−1.62 · n=81KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KAUS2.66−2.57 · n=823.13−2.97 · n=823.35−3.11 · n=823.51−3.19 · n=823.67−3.21 · n=813.98−3.60 · n=814.34−3.44 · n=814.53−3.71 · n=814.68−3.80 · n=814.81−3.84 · n=81KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KBOS1.85−0.91 · n=771.93−1.01 · n=771.98−1.16 · n=772.30−0.74 · n=772.95−0.94 · n=763.44−0.84 · n=773.57−0.17 · n=774.45−0.12 · n=764.98−0.24 · n=765.56−0.38 · n=76KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDCA2.25−2.00 · n=822.46−2.01 · n=822.46−2.00 · n=822.63−2.01 · n=822.95−2.00 · n=813.27−1.85 · n=813.45−1.28 · n=813.69−1.18 · n=814.16−1.17 · n=814.87−1.08 · n=81KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDEN1.91−0.62 · n=822.28−1.31 · n=822.50−1.68 · n=822.77−1.94 · n=823.58−2.42 · n=814.35−2.51 · n=814.98−2.69 · n=815.36−2.95 · n=816.03−3.59 · n=81—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KDFW2.06−1.87 · n=822.95−2.86 · n=823.33−3.26 · n=823.52−3.31 · n=823.95−3.36 · n=814.30−3.75 · n=814.71−3.92 · n=814.90−4.21 · n=814.92−3.98 · n=815.13−4.00 · n=81KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KEWR2.35−2.06 · n=822.55−2.19 · n=822.70−2.17 · n=822.76−2.07 · n=823.03−2.11 · n=813.19−1.99 · n=813.64−1.25 · n=814.00−1.15 · n=814.26−1.25 · n=814.58−1.24 · n=81KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KIAH3.09−2.74 · n=823.60−3.24 · n=823.55−3.23 · n=823.70−3.18 · n=823.89−3.12 · n=814.09−3.55 · n=814.30−3.38 · n=814.45−3.37 · n=814.66−3.68 · n=814.76−3.58 · n=81KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KLAS2.86−2.71 · n=822.97−2.75 · n=823.29−2.95 · n=823.56−2.91 · n=823.63−2.77 · n=814.02−2.57 · n=814.53−2.65 · n=814.88−2.51 · n=815.11−2.46 · n=81—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KLAX2.09−1.66 · n=822.53−2.25 · n=822.96−2.80 · n=823.37−3.22 · n=823.48−3.28 · n=813.64−3.35 · n=813.82−3.32 · n=814.16−3.16 · n=814.49−3.17 · n=81—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMIA2.49−2.04 · n=822.91−2.46 · n=823.20−2.65 · n=823.29−2.59 · n=823.53−2.72 · n=813.48−2.63 · n=813.50−2.66 · n=813.62−2.37 · n=813.66−2.35 · n=813.55−2.38 · n=81KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMSP2.64−2.36 · n=823.04−2.60 · n=823.30−2.50 · n=823.58−2.41 · n=823.71−2.20 · n=813.83−2.11 · n=814.45−1.98 · n=814.99−1.75 · n=814.92−1.95 · n=815.39−2.34 · n=81KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KMSY2.92−2.83 · n=823.33−3.21 · n=823.48−3.32 · n=823.76−3.69 · n=823.92−3.79 · n=814.10−3.85 · n=814.10−3.67 · n=814.33−3.50 · n=814.40−3.61 · n=814.31−3.48 · n=81KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KNYC1.48+0.52 · n=811.54+0.34 · n=811.82+0.27 · n=811.80+0.34 · n=812.11+0.30 · n=802.21+0.24 · n=802.92+0.91 · n=803.20+1.01 · n=803.79+0.89 · n=804.18+0.84 · n=80KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KOKC2.90−2.17 · n=823.80−3.10 · n=824.69−4.16 · n=824.79−4.35 · n=825.29−4.58 · n=815.93−4.88 · n=816.48−5.47 · n=816.49−5.54 · n=816.79−5.13 · n=817.12−5.50 · n=81KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KORD1.56−0.86 · n=821.94−1.03 · n=822.14−1.22 · n=822.35−1.31 · n=822.67−1.12 · n=812.81−0.47 · n=813.04−0.33 · n=813.76−0.21 · n=813.92−0.05 · n=814.00−0.34 · n=81KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KPHL2.02−1.44 · n=822.27−1.55 · n=822.39−1.58 · n=822.37−1.55 · n=822.66−1.42 · n=812.84−1.36 · n=813.20−0.50 · n=813.65−0.43 · n=814.03−0.51 · n=814.62−0.56 · n=81KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KPHX2.76−2.52 · n=823.19−2.75 · n=823.28−2.69 · n=823.53−3.03 · n=823.74−2.79 · n=813.95−2.69 · n=814.27−2.25 · n=814.64−2.35 · n=815.32−2.21 · n=81—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSAN3.36−3.36 · n=824.03−4.03 · n=824.54−4.54 · n=824.93−4.91 · n=825.10−4.97 · n=815.25−5.03 · n=815.32−5.01 · n=815.43−4.96 · n=815.49−4.95 · n=81—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSAT1.88−1.66 · n=822.34−2.17 · n=822.73−2.55 · n=822.81−2.63 · n=823.08−2.63 · n=813.32−2.95 · n=813.57−2.96 · n=813.91−3.11 · n=814.01−3.20 · n=814.13−3.22 · n=81KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSEA1.91−1.37 · n=822.17−1.30 · n=822.23−1.26 · n=822.44−1.27 · n=822.60−1.29 · n=813.03−0.92 · n=813.52−0.67 · n=814.03−0.18 · n=814.35+0.58 · n=81—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KSFO3.31−3.00 · n=823.65−3.29 · n=823.92−3.62 · n=824.09−3.82 · n=824.05−3.69 · n=814.36−3.92 · n=814.54−3.79 · n=814.43−3.61 · n=814.75−3.63 · n=81—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s
KTTN1.40+0.75 · n=811.58+0.67 · n=811.93+0.67 · n=811.99+0.76 · n=812.29+0.87 · n=802.38+1.07 · n=803.35+1.98 · n=803.67+2.11 · n=803.98+1.90 · n=804.69+1.95 · n=80KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_s

Sampled daily minimum — MAE °F by stationtmin_s

Scored against the minimum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.

the last 90 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL2.12−1.96 · n=822.23−1.83 · n=822.25−1.82 · n=822.21−1.68 · n=822.25−1.52 · n=812.29−1.50 · n=812.42−1.14 · n=812.85−0.65 · n=812.93−0.56 · n=813.32−0.32 · n=81KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KAUS3.03+2.68 · n=823.08+2.66 · n=822.91+2.36 · n=822.87+2.36 · n=822.81+2.27 · n=812.82+2.18 · n=812.87+2.37 · n=813.36+2.59 · n=813.50+2.60 · n=813.65+2.74 · n=81KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KBOS1.92−1.65 · n=772.08−1.66 · n=772.09−1.57 · n=772.03−1.39 · n=772.00−1.05 · n=762.31−0.91 · n=772.92−0.49 · n=773.36−0.07 · n=763.53+0.22 · n=764.07+0.52 · n=76KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDCA2.11−1.91 · n=822.00−1.66 · n=822.16−1.65 · n=822.27−1.67 · n=822.60−1.86 · n=813.14−1.94 · n=813.45−1.42 · n=813.45−0.96 · n=813.61−0.58 · n=814.23−0.36 · n=81KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDEN2.24−0.19 · n=822.12−0.39 · n=822.22−0.58 · n=822.53−0.62 · n=822.72−0.84 · n=813.39−1.02 · n=813.82−1.04 · n=813.75−1.18 · n=814.24−1.71 · n=81—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KDFW1.14−0.73 · n=821.36−0.86 · n=821.57−1.17 · n=821.96−1.49 · n=822.14−1.63 · n=812.37−1.75 · n=812.56−1.64 · n=812.71−1.51 · n=813.26−1.47 · n=813.35−1.32 · n=81KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KEWR1.33−0.36 · n=821.55−0.38 · n=821.71−0.21 · n=821.84−0.13 · n=822.25−0.04 · n=812.40+0.05 · n=812.91+0.54 · n=813.24+0.98 · n=813.50+1.24 · n=814.08+1.41 · n=81KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KIAH1.26+0.12 · n=821.54−0.03 · n=821.56−0.19 · n=821.75−0.34 · n=821.85−0.22 · n=812.12+0.01 · n=812.15−0.08 · n=812.52+0.36 · n=812.77+0.42 · n=812.77+0.45 · n=81KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KLAS3.71−3.55 · n=824.14−3.90 · n=824.39−4.11 · n=824.51−4.20 · n=824.48−4.02 · n=814.48−4.02 · n=814.73−3.91 · n=814.60−3.61 · n=814.79−3.53 · n=81—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KLAX1.71−1.52 · n=822.14−1.96 · n=822.54−2.45 · n=822.99−2.92 · n=823.23−3.16 · n=813.48−3.36 · n=813.45−3.26 · n=813.41−3.15 · n=813.55−3.04 · n=81—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMIA1.45−0.46 · n=821.61−0.48 · n=821.54−0.77 · n=821.67−0.75 · n=821.73−0.80 · n=811.82−0.79 · n=811.89−0.79 · n=811.89−0.79 · n=812.05−0.76 · n=812.09−0.82 · n=81KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMSP1.57−1.06 · n=821.72−1.05 · n=821.97−1.13 · n=822.23−1.13 · n=822.35−0.96 · n=812.92−1.03 · n=813.35−1.02 · n=814.18−0.92 · n=814.38−1.19 · n=814.52−1.34 · n=81KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KMSY1.75+1.22 · n=821.85+1.11 · n=821.84+0.96 · n=821.74+0.79 · n=821.80+0.74 · n=811.98+0.73 · n=812.32+1.02 · n=812.60+1.25 · n=812.67+1.46 · n=812.82+1.56 · n=81KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KNYC1.33+0.10 · n=811.46+0.20 · n=811.66+0.49 · n=811.82+0.64 · n=812.09+0.65 · n=802.25+0.72 · n=802.95+1.27 · n=803.13+1.73 · n=803.44+2.01 · n=804.09+2.19 · n=80KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KOKC3.34+2.63 · n=823.23+2.42 · n=823.13+1.93 · n=823.04+1.71 · n=823.14+1.51 · n=812.97+1.35 · n=813.33+1.07 · n=813.43+0.84 · n=813.79+1.11 · n=814.08+1.22 · n=81KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KORD1.12−0.51 · n=821.23−0.30 · n=821.55−0.48 · n=821.90−0.77 · n=822.10−0.73 · n=812.40−0.35 · n=812.79+0.04 · n=813.38+0.15 · n=814.01+0.31 · n=813.97+0.27 · n=81KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KPHL2.53−2.44 · n=822.41−2.21 · n=822.34−1.93 · n=822.57−1.98 · n=822.75−1.78 · n=812.93−1.96 · n=813.33−1.35 · n=813.51−0.80 · n=813.55−0.51 · n=814.16−0.24 · n=81KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KPHX4.00−3.57 · n=824.16−3.72 · n=824.39−4.05 · n=824.52−4.17 · n=824.69−4.16 · n=814.80−4.10 · n=815.01−4.11 · n=815.21−4.10 · n=815.32−4.03 · n=81—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSAN1.73−0.86 · n=821.90−1.04 · n=822.08−1.48 · n=822.35−1.84 · n=822.47−2.04 · n=812.74−2.10 · n=812.88−1.98 · n=813.10−2.04 · n=813.08−1.92 · n=81—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSAT1.52−0.48 · n=821.71−0.71 · n=821.76−1.11 · n=821.94−1.24 · n=821.91−1.31 · n=812.18−1.48 · n=812.44−1.40 · n=812.87−1.12 · n=813.17−1.05 · n=813.28−0.97 · n=81KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSEA1.67−0.75 · n=821.58−0.70 · n=821.49−0.68 · n=821.48−0.48 · n=821.48−0.41 · n=811.78−0.10 · n=812.13+0.21 · n=812.12+0.27 · n=812.41+0.66 · n=81—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KSFO1.46−0.25 · n=821.64−0.55 · n=821.72−0.89 · n=821.90−1.13 · n=821.96−1.30 · n=812.01−1.30 · n=812.16−1.22 · n=812.20−1.18 · n=812.08−1.06 · n=81—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s
KTTN1.34+0.87 · n=811.77+1.05 · n=811.99+1.25 · n=812.25+1.33 · n=812.53+1.47 · n=802.75+1.43 · n=803.53+2.06 · n=804.05+2.62 · n=804.07+2.72 · n=804.76+3.08 · n=80KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_s

Against the NWS daily extremes (secondary)

This comparison scores four 6-hourly forecast samples against the true daily extreme, so it includes a sampling penalty. The size of that penalty depends on each model's own diurnal amplitude, which is one of the things this site measures, so these numbers are published for operational relevance and are never used for ranking.

Daily maximum vs NWS CLI

the last 90 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL4.88−4.88 · n=825.04−5.04 · n=825.12−5.12 · n=825.45−5.24 · n=825.38−5.04 · n=815.56−5.10 · n=815.78−4.98 · n=816.01−5.08 · n=816.17−4.97 · n=816.25−4.70 · n=81KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KAUS6.55−6.55 · n=826.89−6.89 · n=827.16−7.10 · n=827.22−7.18 · n=827.35−7.21 · n=817.85−7.60 · n=817.95−7.49 · n=818.17−7.72 · n=818.23−7.81 · n=818.35−7.84 · n=81KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KBOS3.07−2.88 · n=813.10−2.95 · n=813.30−3.08 · n=813.19−2.69 · n=813.90−2.93 · n=804.40−2.80 · n=804.41−2.18 · n=805.12−2.09 · n=805.51−2.25 · n=806.09−2.40 · n=80KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDCA4.29−4.29 · n=824.44−4.33 · n=824.29−4.29 · n=824.45−4.27 · n=824.67−4.34 · n=814.89−4.19 · n=814.99−3.58 · n=815.00−3.50 · n=815.32−3.50 · n=816.00−3.42 · n=81KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDEN5.02−4.99 · n=825.66−5.66 · n=826.16−6.14 · n=826.30−6.30 · n=827.07−6.77 · n=817.53−6.89 · n=817.97−6.90 · n=818.51−7.35 · n=819.23−7.83 · n=81—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KDFW5.38−5.36 · n=826.36−6.36 · n=826.78−6.78 · n=826.85−6.84 · n=827.19−6.90 · n=817.57−7.35 · n=817.87−7.39 · n=817.98−7.74 · n=817.99−7.51 · n=818.14−7.54 · n=81KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KEWR4.09−4.06 · n=824.24−4.22 · n=824.21−4.21 · n=824.22−4.10 · n=824.54−4.15 · n=814.58−4.01 · n=814.85−3.33 · n=814.89−3.15 · n=815.13−3.30 · n=815.39−3.27 · n=81KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KIAH6.43−6.40 · n=826.90−6.81 · n=826.93−6.82 · n=826.91−6.82 · n=827.00−6.76 · n=817.33−7.15 · n=817.25−6.91 · n=817.39−7.01 · n=817.63−7.30 · n=817.66−7.24 · n=81KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KLAS4.51−4.44 · n=824.49−4.38 · n=824.84−4.65 · n=824.89−4.64 · n=824.95−4.48 · n=815.09−4.26 · n=815.50−4.22 · n=815.73−4.23 · n=815.88−4.07 · n=81—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KLAX4.36−4.33 · n=824.79−4.79 · n=825.50−5.50 · n=825.76−5.75 · n=825.92−5.92 · n=816.01−6.00 · n=815.94−5.91 · n=816.05−5.81 · n=816.18−5.82 · n=81—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMIA4.44−4.44 · n=824.81−4.81 · n=825.12−5.12 · n=825.14−5.12 · n=825.26−5.19 · n=815.18−5.15 · n=815.08−5.05 · n=815.03−4.92 · n=815.02−4.80 · n=815.05−4.81 · n=81KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMSP5.18−5.13 · n=825.38−5.34 · n=825.60−5.20 · n=825.72−5.12 · n=825.80−4.94 · n=815.92−4.86 · n=816.37−4.66 · n=816.73−4.49 · n=816.54−4.69 · n=816.90−5.20 · n=81KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KMSY5.54−5.54 · n=825.99−5.97 · n=826.10−6.04 · n=826.42−6.39 · n=826.60−6.56 · n=816.62−6.55 · n=816.55−6.45 · n=816.58−6.32 · n=816.62−6.37 · n=816.60−6.23 · n=81KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KNYC1.63−1.36 · n=821.75−1.57 · n=821.99−1.64 · n=822.11−1.54 · n=822.58−1.62 · n=812.67−1.54 · n=813.21−0.89 · n=813.39−0.83 · n=813.84−0.92 · n=814.28−0.98 · n=81KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KOKC5.71−5.61 · n=826.67−6.58 · n=827.69−7.59 · n=827.90−7.80 · n=828.23−8.07 · n=818.92−8.32 · n=819.51−8.92 · n=819.48−8.96 · n=819.51−8.62 · n=819.88−8.94 · n=81KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KORD3.21−3.15 · n=823.45−3.27 · n=823.64−3.49 · n=823.89−3.59 · n=824.02−3.47 · n=813.83−2.83 · n=813.95−2.63 · n=814.44−2.46 · n=814.43−2.28 · n=814.68−2.68 · n=81KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KPHL3.83−3.71 · n=823.94−3.86 · n=823.91−3.78 · n=824.05−3.85 · n=824.19−3.68 · n=814.32−3.55 · n=814.43−2.80 · n=814.50−2.68 · n=814.87−2.80 · n=815.33−2.83 · n=81KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KPHX4.80−4.71 · n=825.09−4.92 · n=825.12−4.88 · n=825.40−5.25 · n=825.42−4.96 · n=815.39−4.80 · n=815.49−4.40 · n=815.91−4.57 · n=816.37−4.45 · n=81—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSAN5.82−5.82 · n=826.44−6.44 · n=827.01−7.01 · n=827.29−7.29 · n=827.49−7.43 · n=817.52−7.48 · n=817.49−7.43 · n=817.46−7.38 · n=817.47−7.41 · n=81—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSAT5.13−5.13 · n=825.68−5.68 · n=825.94−5.94 · n=826.05−6.04 · n=826.18−6.05 · n=816.62−6.49 · n=816.76−6.41 · n=816.96−6.61 · n=817.05−6.70 · n=817.07−6.71 · n=81KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSEA2.93−2.78 · n=823.07−2.71 · n=823.18−2.67 · n=823.26−2.63 · n=823.35−2.74 · n=813.56−2.27 · n=813.80−2.03 · n=814.22−1.57 · n=814.40−0.90 · n=81—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KSFO6.75−6.75 · n=827.13−7.13 · n=827.45−7.45 · n=827.65−7.65 · n=827.58−7.58 · n=817.84−7.79 · n=817.78−7.69 · n=817.53−7.43 · n=817.69−7.35 · n=81—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli
KTTN1.85−1.57 · n=822.08−1.70 · n=822.19−1.66 · n=822.39−1.58 · n=822.78−1.49 · n=812.82−1.27 · n=813.37−0.38 · n=813.70−0.25 · n=814.13−0.39 · n=814.65−0.44 · n=81KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax_cli

Daily minimum vs NWS CLI

the last 90 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows the same row across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL1.37−0.62 · n=821.60−0.40 · n=821.68−0.46 · n=821.67−0.34 · n=821.78−0.23 · n=811.93−0.19 · n=812.24+0.23 · n=812.76+0.77 · n=812.86+0.88 · n=813.05+1.06 · n=81KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KAUS4.14+4.02 · n=824.24+4.12 · n=823.97+3.80 · n=823.99+3.79 · n=823.85+3.68 · n=813.77+3.55 · n=814.01+3.80 · n=814.40+3.97 · n=814.58+4.04 · n=814.65+4.13 · n=81KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KBOS1.34+0.45 · n=811.45+0.43 · n=811.70+0.58 · n=811.84+0.75 · n=812.11+1.09 · n=802.44+1.18 · n=803.02+1.52 · n=803.54+2.04 · n=803.87+2.25 · n=804.36+2.67 · n=80KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDCA1.35+0.09 · n=821.43+0.31 · n=821.80+0.36 · n=821.88+0.28 · n=822.12+0.13 · n=812.53+0.09 · n=813.22+0.53 · n=813.43+1.06 · n=813.64+1.41 · n=814.35+1.65 · n=81KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDEN2.81+1.97 · n=822.72+1.79 · n=822.67+1.74 · n=822.77+1.71 · n=822.77+1.46 · n=813.08+1.32 · n=813.51+1.16 · n=813.68+1.09 · n=813.89+0.55 · n=81—KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KDFW1.11+0.31 · n=821.33+0.22 · n=821.48−0.13 · n=821.73−0.40 · n=821.89−0.64 · n=812.19−0.77 · n=812.53−0.59 · n=812.81−0.45 · n=813.08−0.37 · n=813.40−0.22 · n=81KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KEWR2.35+2.11 · n=822.45+2.10 · n=822.67+2.29 · n=822.90+2.37 · n=823.06+2.48 · n=813.25+2.61 · n=813.87+3.02 · n=814.31+3.50 · n=814.60+3.73 · n=815.03+3.88 · n=81KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KIAH1.86+1.21 · n=822.06+1.18 · n=822.05+1.06 · n=822.05+0.79 · n=822.24+0.98 · n=812.41+1.04 · n=812.51+1.15 · n=812.93+1.60 · n=813.05+1.63 · n=813.20+1.64 · n=81KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KLAS2.64−1.85 · n=823.05−2.21 · n=823.18−2.41 · n=823.35−2.48 · n=823.43−2.34 · n=813.49−2.33 · n=813.73−2.19 · n=813.79−2.04 · n=814.10−1.88 · n=81—KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KLAX1.04−0.44 · n=821.38−0.80 · n=821.63−1.32 · n=821.99−1.79 · n=822.27−2.04 · n=812.56−2.21 · n=812.66−2.10 · n=812.81−2.05 · n=812.99−1.94 · n=81—KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMIA1.77+1.28 · n=821.97+1.43 · n=821.76+1.10 · n=821.85+1.08 · n=821.91+1.13 · n=811.90+1.01 · n=812.03+1.14 · n=812.10+1.10 · n=812.14+1.08 · n=812.16+1.13 · n=81KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMSP1.63+0.41 · n=821.76+0.34 · n=821.86+0.29 · n=822.25+0.40 · n=822.45+0.60 · n=812.70+0.35 · n=813.54+0.51 · n=814.04+0.51 · n=814.29+0.30 · n=814.09+0.18 · n=81KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KMSY3.07+2.87 · n=823.10+2.80 · n=822.91+2.62 · n=822.75+2.41 · n=822.74+2.29 · n=812.86+2.36 · n=813.22+2.71 · n=813.51+3.05 · n=813.65+3.25 · n=813.74+3.25 · n=81KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KNYC2.16+1.81 · n=822.23+1.94 · n=822.53+2.23 · n=822.73+2.37 · n=822.79+2.42 · n=812.96+2.54 · n=813.57+2.96 · n=813.93+3.47 · n=814.33+3.81 · n=814.87+3.98 · n=81KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KOKC4.18+3.98 · n=823.97+3.76 · n=823.78+3.28 · n=823.66+3.07 · n=823.70+2.84 · n=813.44+2.74 · n=813.70+2.42 · n=813.80+2.23 · n=814.06+2.46 · n=814.38+2.52 · n=81KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KORD1.52+0.91 · n=821.72+1.19 · n=821.84+0.97 · n=822.02+0.74 · n=822.24+0.68 · n=812.69+1.07 · n=813.19+1.51 · n=813.86+1.66 · n=814.56+1.82 · n=814.39+1.72 · n=81KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KPHL1.36−0.35 · n=821.48−0.06 · n=821.67+0.19 · n=821.94+0.18 · n=822.20+0.34 · n=812.42+0.21 · n=813.00+0.68 · n=813.48+1.29 · n=813.74+1.58 · n=814.29+1.92 · n=81KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KPHX3.06−2.07 · n=823.12−2.21 · n=823.29−2.52 · n=823.49−2.74 · n=823.78−2.61 · n=813.99−2.61 · n=814.21−2.60 · n=814.44−2.55 · n=814.55−2.51 · n=81—KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSAN1.46+0.24 · n=821.60+0.08 · n=821.76−0.36 · n=821.92−0.69 · n=822.04−0.87 · n=812.26−1.00 · n=812.47−0.89 · n=812.72−0.91 · n=812.81−0.79 · n=81—KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSAT1.41+0.33 · n=821.47+0.16 · n=821.49−0.22 · n=821.68−0.31 · n=821.76−0.44 · n=811.88−0.63 · n=812.24−0.55 · n=812.69−0.27 · n=812.97−0.16 · n=813.04−0.07 · n=81KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSEA1.36+0.77 · n=821.25+0.78 · n=821.30+0.89 · n=821.40+0.98 · n=821.49+1.14 · n=811.89+1.41 · n=812.25+1.74 · n=812.37+1.79 · n=812.76+2.20 · n=81—KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KSFO1.33+0.48 · n=821.45+0.14 · n=821.50−0.14 · n=821.61−0.44 · n=821.64−0.59 · n=811.75−0.59 · n=811.92−0.54 · n=811.93−0.47 · n=811.85−0.36 · n=81—KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli
KTTN3.98+3.97 · n=824.12+4.12 · n=824.38+4.36 · n=824.43+4.36 · n=824.67+4.53 · n=814.75+4.55 · n=815.29+4.88 · n=815.86+5.51 · n=816.08+5.78 · n=816.57+5.93 · n=81KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin_cli

Month by month

MAE °F at lead day 1, 00Z, bilinear, instantaneous temperature, per station.

MonthKATLKAUSKBOSKDCAKDENKDFWKEWRKIAHKLASKLAXKMIAKMSPKMSYKNYCKOKCKORDKPHLKPHXKSANKSATKSEAKSFOKTTN
2026-102.22-1.86 · n=983.70+0.03 · n=982.07-1.48 · n=971.94-1.53 · n=982.15-0.54 · n=972.35-1.95 · n=982.15-1.17 · n=982.58-1.33 · n=982.41-2.21 · n=972.85-2.35 · n=971.83-1.33 · n=982.21-1.49 · n=982.37-0.56 · n=981.73-0.43 · n=963.17+1.15 · n=981.67-0.82 · n=982.48-1.83 · n=983.03-2.38 · n=972.95-2.23 · n=972.58-1.30 · n=982.22-1.34 · n=972.81-1.23 · n=972.00+1.15 · n=98
2026-093.12-2.56 · n=1042.84-0.90 · n=1042.20-1.31 · n=1042.76-2.38 · n=1042.71-0.90 · n=1042.98-2.58 · n=1042.37-2.03 · n=1042.48-1.68 · n=1043.82-3.63 · n=1042.40-1.83 · n=1042.15-1.16 · n=1042.61-1.70 · n=1042.15-0.90 · n=1041.66-0.47 · n=1043.62-1.53 · n=1042.04-1.29 · n=1043.12-2.95 · n=1044.80-3.98 · n=1042.64-2.52 · n=1042.18-1.37 · n=1041.88-0.80 · n=1042.97-2.22 · n=1041.35-0.11 · n=103
2026-084.12-3.48 · n=1242.29+0.11 · n=1243.36-2.83 · n=1203.43-3.00 · n=1242.93-0.10 · n=1241.99-1.39 · n=1242.76-2.06 · n=1243.04-2.15 · n=1243.92-3.29 · n=1241.82-1.59 · n=1242.65-1.70 · n=1243.16-2.73 · n=1242.52-1.00 · n=1241.80-0.22 · n=1243.75-0.21 · n=1242.15-1.17 · n=1243.10-2.70 · n=1243.70-2.68 · n=1242.88-2.73 · n=1241.62-1.03 · n=1242.47-0.52 · n=1242.28-2.06 · n=1241.89+0.12 · n=124
2026-072.85-2.20 · n=802.06-1.13 · n=782.57-1.32 · n=803.53-3.39 · n=802.52-1.61 · n=792.73-2.57 · n=802.80-2.23 · n=802.75-2.43 · n=804.23-3.38 · n=801.88-1.47 · n=802.43-1.98 · n=803.37-3.09 · n=801.97-0.98 · n=801.90-0.48 · n=802.95+0.59 · n=802.63-1.88 · n=803.42-3.24 · n=803.92-2.58 · n=802.29-2.29 · n=802.57-2.30 · n=802.32-1.55 · n=803.43-3.38 · n=801.88-0.13 · n=80
2026-063.47-3.30 · n=122.31-1.71 · n=123.05-3.05 · n=125.72-5.72 · n=123.04+0.42 · n=122.72-1.74 · n=124.12-4.12 · n=122.48-0.13 · n=124.59-4.59 · n=111.08-0.84 · n=122.36-0.95 · n=122.56-0.71 · n=122.18-2.18 · n=122.10-1.82 · n=121.84-0.02 · n=121.72+0.08 · n=123.88-3.72 · n=123.33-3.32 · n=123.38-3.38 · n=122.02-1.37 · n=121.76-1.43 · n=123.58-3.58 · n=122.02-1.70 · n=12
2026-053.65-3.37 · n=402.73+0.00 · n=402.85-2.27 · n=403.37-3.32 · n=402.44-1.22 · n=402.72-1.39 · n=394.17-4.11 · n=402.73-2.36 · n=403.17-3.10 · n=402.03-0.78 · n=401.94-1.83 · n=392.71-2.31 · n=401.87-0.39 · n=402.81-2.73 · n=402.70+1.29 · n=402.46-1.23 · n=403.89-3.88 · n=403.38-3.04 · n=402.45-2.45 · n=402.40-1.34 · n=402.61-1.08 · n=401.95-1.38 · n=401.99-0.59 · n=40
2026-043.87-3.75 · n=1162.67-1.42 · n=1162.91-1.11 · n=1163.10-2.67 · n=1162.56-0.29 · n=1162.20-1.48 · n=1153.39-3.20 · n=1162.53-1.88 · n=1162.86-2.70 · n=1162.15-1.99 · n=1161.34-1.05 · n=1162.81-2.46 · n=1162.13-1.40 · n=1163.11-2.91 · n=1162.28+0.70 · n=1162.83-1.74 · n=1163.19-2.59 · n=1163.14-3.02 · n=1162.87-2.61 · n=1162.89-1.79 · n=1162.31-1.52 · n=1162.73-2.45 · n=1162.07-0.08 · n=116
2026-033.70-3.29 · n=1243.51-1.78 · n=1242.43-1.80 · n=1203.27-2.51 · n=1243.49-1.67 · n=1242.64-1.65 · n=1243.69-3.34 · n=1242.63-2.13 · n=1242.32-1.61 · n=1242.43-1.16 · n=1241.75-1.15 · n=1243.92-3.48 · n=1242.66-1.55 · n=1243.63-3.26 · n=1242.83-0.32 · n=1243.05-2.21 · n=1243.39-2.47 · n=1242.54-2.25 · n=1243.02-2.26 · n=1233.14-2.29 · n=1241.90-0.61 · n=1243.36-2.38 · n=1242.40-0.45 · n=122
2026-023.18-2.88 · n=1113.93-0.35 · n=1122.95-1.79 · n=1123.14-1.42 · n=1123.66-2.32 · n=1122.85-1.82 · n=1113.16-2.53 · n=1102.82-1.94 · n=1122.04-1.46 · n=1122.06-1.35 · n=1121.47-0.69 · n=1113.12-2.22 · n=1122.50-1.05 · n=1123.38-2.32 · n=1122.88-0.32 · n=1112.94-2.11 · n=1123.21-2.15 · n=1122.50-2.21 · n=1122.75-1.37 · n=1123.26-1.99 · n=1122.09-1.72 · n=1122.08-0.97 · n=1122.58+0.23 · n=110
2026-012.62-2.34 · n=1203.17-0.66 · n=1202.02-1.11 · n=1182.64-1.84 · n=1193.29-2.28 · n=1202.65-1.45 · n=1202.53-2.07 · n=1202.54-1.38 · n=1202.02-0.83 · n=1202.17-0.94 · n=1201.63-0.57 · n=1202.95-2.43 · n=1202.46-0.19 · n=1202.51-1.61 · n=1192.69+0.13 · n=1202.22-0.92 · n=1202.61-2.06 · n=1203.41-3.35 · n=1202.79+0.31 · n=1203.07-1.73 · n=1202.52-2.14 · n=1201.79-0.79 · n=1202.17+0.64 · n=120

Source and licence

Where the numbers come from, what may be done with them, and what was — deliberately — not done to the forecast before scoring it.

Where it comes from

aiwp · AURO · IFS initial conditions

Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.