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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Minneapolis-St Paul · Aurora (IFS init) · lead day 0

KMSP · aurora_ifs · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d3 1 QC5.74 [4.86, 6.19]0.61-5.74 [-6.19, -4.86]5.79 [4.86, 6.20]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d3 1 QC5.74 [4.86, 6.19]0.61-5.74 [-6.19, -4.86]5.79 [4.86, 6.20]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d3 1 QC5.74 [4.86, 6.19]0.61-5.74 [-6.19, -4.86]5.79 [4.86, 6.20]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall3 1 QC5.74 [4.86, 6.19]0.61-5.74 [-6.19, -4.86]5.79 [4.86, 6.20]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d3 1 QC6.12 [4.97, 6.70]0.77-6.12 [-6.70, -4.97]6.18 [4.97, 6.70]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d3 1 QC6.12 [4.97, 6.70]0.77-6.12 [-6.70, -4.97]6.18 [4.97, 6.70]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d3 1 QC6.12 [4.97, 6.70]0.77-6.12 [-6.70, -4.97]6.18 [4.97, 6.70]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall3 1 QC6.12 [4.97, 6.70]0.77-6.12 [-6.70, -4.97]6.18 [4.97, 6.70]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d3 1 QC1.11 [0.40, 1.47]1.07-0.12 [-1.45, 0.55]1.22 [0.40, 1.47]33% [0%, 100%]100%100%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d3 1 QC1.11 [0.40, 1.47]1.07-0.12 [-1.45, 0.55]1.22 [0.40, 1.47]33% [0%, 100%]100%100%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d3 1 QC1.11 [0.40, 1.47]1.07-0.12 [-1.45, 0.55]1.22 [0.40, 1.47]33% [0%, 100%]100%100%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall3 1 QC1.11 [0.40, 1.47]1.07-0.12 [-1.45, 0.55]1.22 [0.40, 1.47]33% [0%, 100%]100%100%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d3 1 QC1.18 [0.20, 1.84]1.12-0.18 [-1.84, 0.65]1.37 [0.20, 1.84]33% [0%, 100%]100%100%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d3 1 QC1.18 [0.20, 1.84]1.12-0.18 [-1.84, 0.65]1.37 [0.20, 1.84]33% [0%, 100%]100%100%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d3 1 QC1.18 [0.20, 1.84]1.12-0.18 [-1.84, 0.65]1.37 [0.20, 1.84]33% [0%, 100%]100%100%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall3 1 QC1.18 [0.20, 1.84]1.12-0.18 [-1.84, 0.65]1.37 [0.20, 1.84]33% [0%, 100%]100%100%——2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KMSP, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-28: -4.86 °F2026-08-29: -6.66 °F2026-08-30: -5.72 °F2026-08-282026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (3 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-5.72
2026-08-29-6.66
2026-08-28-4.86

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KMSP, lead day 0-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 5.72 · P90 |e| 6.47 °F-100+10 °Fn = 3 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.000
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0835.74 -5.74

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30 3
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-28 → 2026-08-30 3

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Aurora (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 3 +1.75 [1.21, 2.83] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -0.19 [-2.28, 1.90] no
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 +0.99 [-0.18, 2.15] no
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 -0.14 [-0.31, 0.20] no
NCEP GFS 3 +2.64 [-2.96, 5.44] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -0.79 [-2.69, 1.11] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 3 -0.40 [-1.14, 0.15] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 3 +4.11 [3.81, 4.72] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 +1.76 [-0.51, 4.04] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 +1.15 [0.81, 1.82] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSP aurora_ifs lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/aurora_ifs/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSP (Minneapolis-St Paul), model aurora_ifs, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/aurora_ifs/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence