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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Minneapolis-St Paul · NCEP GFS · lead day 0

KMSP · gfs · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d30 1 QC2.07 [1.60, 2.60]2.21+0.90 [0.11, 1.65]3.07 [2.24, 3.86]43% [27%, 60%]63%77%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d30 1 QC2.07 [1.38, 2.79]2.21+0.90 [0.08, 1.88]3.07 [1.86, 4.08]43% [29%, 62%]63%77%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d30 1 QC2.07 [1.38, 2.90]2.21+0.90 [-0.00, 2.17]3.07 [1.80, 4.32]43% [29%, 60%]63%77%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall30 1 QC2.07 [1.39, 2.83]2.21+0.90 [0.10, 2.05]3.07 [1.89, 4.26]43% [29%, 63%]63%77%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d30 1 QC2.35 [1.81, 2.92]2.26+1.41 [0.55, 2.12]3.45 [2.40, 4.31]40% [30%, 53%]60%77%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d30 1 QC2.35 [1.65, 3.07]2.26+1.41 [0.53, 2.23]3.45 [2.00, 4.54]40% [29%, 53%]60%77%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d30 1 QC2.35 [1.62, 3.21]2.26+1.41 [0.47, 2.37]3.45 [1.95, 4.66]40% [29%, 55%]60%77%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall30 1 QC2.35 [1.68, 3.14]2.26+1.41 [0.53, 2.43]3.45 [2.02, 4.51]40% [29%, 52%]60%77%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d30 1 QC1.81 [1.53, 2.07]1.51-1.18 [-1.63, -0.63]2.19 [1.81, 2.52]30% [17%, 47%]63%93%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d30 1 QC1.81 [1.53, 2.09]1.51-1.18 [-1.68, -0.59]2.19 [1.78, 2.49]30% [15%, 47%]63%93%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d30 1 QC1.81 [1.48, 2.07]1.51-1.18 [-1.70, -0.57]2.19 [1.74, 2.51]30% [14%, 50%]63%93%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall30 1 QC1.81 [1.50, 2.10]1.51-1.18 [-1.67, -0.57]2.19 [1.75, 2.53]30% [14%, 46%]63%93%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d30 1 QC1.52 [1.01, 1.96]1.51-0.12 [-0.60, 0.42]1.93 [1.40, 2.30]50% [27%, 73%]73%87%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d30 1 QC1.52 [0.91, 1.93]1.51-0.12 [-0.61, 0.45]1.93 [1.27, 2.29]50% [27%, 77%]73%87%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d30 1 QC1.52 [0.90, 1.96]1.51-0.12 [-0.60, 0.48]1.93 [1.24, 2.31]50% [25%, 77%]73%87%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall30 1 QC1.52 [0.87, 1.99]1.51-0.12 [-0.62, 0.45]1.93 [1.21, 2.32]50% [25%, 80%]73%87%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KMSP, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-01: +0.05 °F2026-08-02: -0.58 °F2026-08-03: +1.18 °F2026-08-04: +0.38 °F2026-08-05: -0.73 °F2026-08-06: +2.02 °F2026-08-07: +3.08 °F2026-08-08: +1.69 °F2026-08-09: -2.57 °F2026-08-10: +1.9 °F2026-08-11: -0.17 °F2026-08-12: -0.42 °F2026-08-13: +6.14 °F2026-08-14: +3.86 °F2026-08-15: -2.69 °F2026-08-16: -0.5 °F2026-08-17: -1.35 °F2026-08-18: -3 °F2026-08-19: -1.56 °F2026-08-20: +4.15 °F2026-08-21: -0.63 °F2026-08-22: +0.16 °F2026-08-23: +0.57 °F2026-08-24: -3.09 °F2026-08-25: +8.56 °F2026-08-26: +1.77 °F2026-08-27: -0.12 °F2026-08-28: +0.46 °F2026-08-29: -0.16 °F2026-08-30: +8.67 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+8.67
2026-08-29-0.16
2026-08-28+0.46
2026-08-27-0.12
2026-08-26+1.77
2026-08-25+8.56
2026-08-24-3.09
2026-08-23+0.57
2026-08-22+0.16
2026-08-21-0.63
2026-08-20+4.15
2026-08-19-1.56
2026-08-18-3.00
2026-08-17-1.35
2026-08-16-0.50
2026-08-15-2.69
2026-08-14+3.86
2026-08-13+6.14
2026-08-12-0.42
2026-08-11-0.17
2026-08-10+1.90
2026-08-09-2.57
2026-08-08+1.69
2026-08-07+3.08
2026-08-06+2.02
2026-08-05-0.73
2026-08-04+0.38
2026-08-03+1.18
2026-08-02-0.58
2026-08-01+0.05

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KMSP, lead day 0-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 8 days0 to 1 °F: 5 days1 to 2 °F: 4 days2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 5 °F: 1 day5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 1 day7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 2 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.45 · P90 |e| 4.35 °F-100+10 °Fn = 30 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.001
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.008
+0.00+1.005
+1.00+2.004
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.002
+4.00+5.001
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.001
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.002
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08302.07 +0.90

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 30
NCEP GFS2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 30

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 30 -1.07 [-1.77, -0.41] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -1.96 [-8.77, 4.86] no
Aurora (IFS init) 3 -2.64 [-5.44, 2.96] no
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 -0.78 [-6.67, 5.11] no
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 -2.78 [-5.75, 3.15] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -2.56 [-9.18, 4.06] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 28 -3.40 [-4.28, -2.55] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 24 -0.66 [-2.05, 0.40] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 -0.00 [-7.00, 6.99] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 -1.50 [-4.50, 4.52] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSP gfs lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/gfs/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSP (Minneapolis-St Paul), model gfs, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/gfs/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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