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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Minneapolis-St Paul · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 0

KMSP · ifs_hres · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC2.93 [2.47, 3.44]1.65-2.62 [-3.14, -2.18]3.35 [2.84, 3.78]17% [4%, 27%]25%58%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC2.93 [2.34, 3.68]1.65-2.62 [-3.37, -2.13]3.35 [2.72, 4.05]17% [0%, 27%]25%58%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC2.93 [2.26, 3.74]1.65-2.62 [-3.33, -2.10]3.35 [2.66, 4.04]17% [0%, 27%]25%58%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall24 1 QC2.93 [2.30, 3.71]1.65-2.62 [-3.50, -2.09]3.35 [2.69, 4.13]17% [0%, 28%]25%58%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d24 1 QC2.25 [1.75, 2.67]1.84-1.41 [-2.19, -0.77]2.67 [2.15, 3.12]21% [4%, 44%]46%62%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d24 1 QC2.25 [1.63, 2.91]1.84-1.41 [-2.42, -0.73]2.67 [2.09, 3.42]21% [0%, 50%]46%62%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d24 1 QC2.25 [1.66, 2.87]1.84-1.41 [-2.32, -0.72]2.67 [2.07, 3.31]21% [0%, 50%]46%62%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall24 1 QC2.25 [1.68, 3.02]1.84-1.41 [-2.74, -0.77]2.67 [2.06, 3.54]21% [0%, 50%]46%62%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC1.54 [1.04, 1.93]1.52+0.14 [-0.56, 0.85]1.78 [1.20, 2.14]29% [12%, 50%]71%92%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC1.54 [0.88, 1.95]1.52+0.14 [-0.63, 0.95]1.78 [0.99, 2.16]29% [10%, 54%]71%92%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC1.54 [0.87, 1.98]1.52+0.14 [-0.61, 1.03]1.78 [0.97, 2.18]29% [9%, 57%]71%92%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall24 1 QC1.54 [0.89, 1.96]1.52+0.14 [-0.59, 1.04]1.78 [1.00, 2.16]29% [8%, 53%]71%92%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d24 1 QC1.61 [1.06, 2.05]1.56+0.49 [-0.23, 1.19]1.90 [1.24, 2.30]29% [13%, 50%]71%88%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d24 1 QC1.61 [0.92, 2.08]1.56+0.49 [-0.30, 1.31]1.90 [1.07, 2.33]29% [11%, 52%]71%88%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d24 1 QC1.61 [0.86, 2.12]1.56+0.49 [-0.26, 1.36]1.90 [0.99, 2.36]29% [11%, 56%]71%88%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall24 1 QC1.61 [0.91, 2.09]1.56+0.49 [-0.23, 1.36]1.90 [1.06, 2.34]29% [11%, 52%]71%88%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSP, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-01: -5.75 °F2026-08-08: -2.09 °F2026-08-09: -3.38 °F2026-08-10: -2.11 °F2026-08-11: -3.51 °F2026-08-12: -1.9 °F2026-08-13: +0.3 °F2026-08-14: +0.74 °F2026-08-15: -2.95 °F2026-08-16: -6.19 °F2026-08-17: -2.95 °F2026-08-18: -4.67 °F2026-08-19: -2.82 °F2026-08-20: +2.4 °F2026-08-21: -4.83 °F2026-08-22: -2.24 °F2026-08-23: -2.98 °F2026-08-24: -4.68 °F2026-08-25: +0.19 °F2026-08-26: -4.2 °F2026-08-27: -4.45 °F2026-08-28: -0.78 °F2026-08-29: -3.12 °F2026-08-30: -1 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.00
2026-08-29-3.12
2026-08-28-0.78
2026-08-27-4.45
2026-08-26-4.20
2026-08-25+0.19
2026-08-24-4.68
2026-08-23-2.98
2026-08-22-2.24
2026-08-21-4.83
2026-08-20+2.40
2026-08-19-2.82
2026-08-18-4.67
2026-08-17-2.95
2026-08-16-6.19
2026-08-15-2.95
2026-08-14+0.74
2026-08-13+0.30
2026-08-12-1.90
2026-08-11-3.51
2026-08-10-2.11
2026-08-09-3.38
2026-08-08-2.09
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02—
2026-08-01-5.75

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSP, lead day 0-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 5 days-4 to -3 °F: 3 days-3 to -2 °F: 7 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 3 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.95 · P90 |e| 4.78 °F-100+10 °Fn = 24 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.005
-4.00-3.003
-3.00-2.007
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.003
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08242.93 -2.62

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 24 -0.51 [-1.15, 0.13] no
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -4.32 [-5.82, -2.82] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 3 -4.11 [-4.72, -3.81] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 -3.14 [-3.72, -2.57] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 -4.25 [-4.52, -4.04] yes
NCEP GFS 24 +0.66 [-0.40, 2.05] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -4.92 [-6.23, -3.61] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 22 -3.18 [-3.92, -2.58] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 -2.37 [-4.05, -0.68] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 -2.97 [-3.31, -2.27] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSP ifs_hres lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSP (Minneapolis-St Paul), model ifs_hres, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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