KPHL — Philadelphia Intl
39.8733, -75.2268 · 2 m· standard offset UTC-5 h · truth product CLIPHL
These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 2.32-2.27 · n=30 | 2.41-2.28 · n=29 | 2.75-2.18 · n=28 | 2.44-2.06 · n=27 | 2.90-2.72 · n=26 | 2.95-2.47 · n=25 | 3.25-2.88 · n=24 | 3.55-3.14 · n=23 | 4.65-4.04 · n=22 | 4.96-4.24 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 5.01-5.01 · n=2 | 6.52-6.52 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 4.64-4.64 · n=3 | 4.19-4.19 · n=2 | 4.48-4.48 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 3.94-3.94 · n=2 | 4.72-4.72 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 5.11-5.11 · n=3 | 2.71-2.54 · n=2 | 4.59-4.59 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 2.80-2.26 · n=30 | 2.88-2.49 · n=29 | 3.60-2.68 · n=28 | 3.12-1.93 · n=27 | 3.65-2.07 · n=26 | 4.33-1.96 · n=25 | 4.09-1.31 · n=24 | 3.77-1.73 · n=23 | 4.89-2.02 · n=22 | 5.14-1.32 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 5.26-5.26 · n=2 | 6.35-6.35 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 4.76-4.76 · n=28 | 5.16-5.16 · n=27 | 4.84-4.84 · n=26 | 4.58-4.48 · n=25 | 4.49-4.49 · n=25 | 4.49-4.27 · n=25 | 4.47-4.39 · n=24 | 4.53-4.22 · n=23 | 5.29-3.96 · n=22 | 5.87-3.45 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 2.68-2.31 · n=24 | 4.17-3.54 · n=23 | 3.37-2.51 · n=22 | 3.29-3.09 · n=22 | 3.48-2.16 · n=20 | 4.06-2.47 · n=18 | 4.54-0.99 · n=19 | 2.88-1.53 · n=18 | 3.58-1.95 · n=17 | 5.18-0.52 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 2.09-2.09 · n=2 | 2.54-2.54 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 2.69-2.69 · n=3 | 1.66-1.66 · n=2 | 3.24-3.24 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 4.01-0.08 · n=90 | 5.10-0.12 · n=90 | 5.92-0.30 · n=90 | 6.02-0.33 · n=90 | 6.69-0.40 · n=90 | 6.44-0.38 · n=90 | 6.26-0.39 · n=90 | 6.76-0.49 · n=90 | 7.12-0.68 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 1.57-0.35 · n=30 | 1.60+0.01 · n=29 | 1.96+0.25 · n=28 | 2.17+0.33 · n=27 | 2.70+0.05 · n=26 | 2.78-0.13 · n=25 | 3.05-0.07 · n=24 | 2.56+0.49 · n=23 | 2.81-0.28 · n=22 | 3.83-0.05 · n=21 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 0.66-0.35 · n=2 | 1.31+1.31 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 1.44-1.44 · n=3 | 0.41-0.41 · n=2 | 0.42+0.42 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 1.18+0.85 · n=2 | 3.96+3.96 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 1.20-0.92 · n=3 | 3.30+3.30 · n=2 | 5.37+5.37 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 1.45+0.24 · n=30 | 1.85+0.08 · n=29 | 1.94+0.17 · n=28 | 1.83+0.67 · n=27 | 2.31+0.14 · n=26 | 2.61-0.10 · n=25 | 3.08+0.32 · n=24 | 3.48+0.40 · n=23 | 3.57+0.38 · n=22 | 4.19-0.06 · n=21 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 0.45-0.45 · n=2 | 1.56+1.56 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 1.58-0.81 · n=28 | 2.05-0.91 · n=27 | 2.03-0.67 · n=26 | 1.98-0.33 · n=25 | 2.60-0.38 · n=25 | 2.77-0.44 · n=25 | 2.76-0.07 · n=24 | 3.18-0.34 · n=23 | 3.47-0.68 · n=22 | 3.64-0.75 · n=21 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 1.28-0.56 · n=24 | 1.98-0.43 · n=23 | 2.01+0.15 · n=22 | 2.67+0.62 · n=22 | 2.52+0.50 · n=20 | 3.40-0.23 · n=18 | 3.14+0.53 · n=19 | 2.59+1.35 · n=18 | 2.88+1.47 · n=17 | 4.74+1.54 · n=16 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 1.71+0.37 · n=2 | 1.83+1.83 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 0.95-0.08 · n=3 | 1.39+0.68 · n=2 | 2.57+2.57 · n=1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 3.22-0.09 · n=90 | 4.52-0.23 · n=90 | 4.82-0.42 · n=90 | 4.74-0.54 · n=90 | 4.81-0.59 · n=90 | 5.07-0.56 · n=90 | 5.01-0.57 · n=90 | 5.12-0.66 · n=90 | 5.60-0.84 · n=90 |
Up to 1 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
Month by month
MAE °F at lead day 1, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum — the seasonal slice behind the window averages. A model that is excellent in one season and poor in another shows up here and nowhere else.
| Month | aifs_single | aurora_gfs | aurora_ifs | fourcastnet_gfs | fourcastnet_ifs | gfs | graphcast_gfs | graphcast_ifs | ifs_hres | pangu_gfs | pangu_ifs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 2.41-2.28 · n=29 | 6.52-6.52 · n=1 | 4.19-4.19 · n=2 | 4.72-4.72 · n=1 | 2.71-2.54 · n=2 | 2.88-2.49 · n=29 | 6.35-6.35 · n=1 | 5.16-5.16 · n=27 | 4.17-3.54 · n=23 | 2.54-2.54 · n=1 | 1.66-1.66 · n=2 |
| 2026-01 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37-2.12 · n=6 | — | — | — |
Model availability at this station
| Model | Period | Scored days | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Single | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 29 | |
| Aurora (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| Aurora (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| NCEP GFS | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 29 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| GraphCast (IFS init) | 2026-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 33 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRES | 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 | 23 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init) | 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 | 1 | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init) | 2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 | 2 | |
| Persistence (baseline) | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 972 |
Observed truth — last 30 days
| Climatological day | Tmax °F | Tmin °F | Source | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | 87 | 65 | OBS | obs_fallback |
| 2026-08-29 | 82 | 65 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-28 | 87 | 71 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-27 | 83 | 69 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-26 | 86 | 66 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-25 | 80 | 65 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-24 | 83 | 65 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-23 | 84 | 66 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-22 | 80 | 70 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-21 | 84 | 65 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-20 | 85 | 68 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-19 | 90 | 73 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-18 | 88 | 76 | CF6 | |
| 2026-08-17 | 89 | 70 | CF6 | |
| 2026-08-16 | 80 | 68 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-15 | 90 | 71 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-14 | 90 | 77 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-13 | 90 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-12 | 90 | 76 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-11 | 88 | 73 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-10 | 91 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-09 | 93 | 75 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-08 | 91 | 74 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-07 | 94 | 76 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-06 | 93 | 78 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-05 | 85 | 73 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-04 | 90 | 70 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-03 | 89 | 73 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-02 | 91 | 76 | CLI | |
| 2026-08-01 | 90 | 73 | CLI |
All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences