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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Philadelphia Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 2

KPHL · ifs_hres · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.37 [2.53, 4.28]2.40-2.51 [-3.93, -1.35]3.99 [3.16, 4.78]23% [8%, 36%]32%45%-0.23+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.37 [2.41, 4.71]2.40-2.51 [-4.37, -1.22]3.99 [2.93, 5.09]23% [0%, 40%]32%45%-0.23+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.37 [2.24, 4.73]2.40-2.51 [-4.43, -1.19]3.99 [2.75, 5.15]23% [0%, 42%]32%45%-0.23+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.37 [2.32, 4.59]2.40-2.51 [-4.42, -1.21]3.99 [2.91, 5.07]23% [0%, 40%]32%45%-0.23+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC3.40 [2.50, 4.44]2.44-2.35 [-3.83, -1.07]3.95 [2.94, 4.92]9% [0%, 21%]27%50%-0.25+0.112026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC3.40 [2.31, 4.84]2.44-2.35 [-4.53, -0.93]3.95 [2.73, 5.29]9% [0%, 24%]27%50%-0.25+0.112026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC3.40 [2.14, 4.96]2.44-2.35 [-4.64, -0.87]3.95 [2.55, 5.35]9% [0%, 25%]27%50%-0.25+0.112026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC3.40 [2.25, 4.79]2.44-2.35 [-4.51, -0.86]3.95 [2.71, 5.32]9% [0%, 24%]27%50%-0.25+0.112026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC4.12 [3.32, 5.04]2.39-3.78 [-4.98, -2.48]4.91 [3.92, 5.92]9% [0%, 17%]18%41%-0.56+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC4.12 [3.22, 5.27]2.39-3.78 [-5.21, -2.18]4.91 [3.80, 6.03]9% [0%, 17%]18%41%-0.56+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC4.12 [3.18, 5.36]2.39-3.78 [-5.36, -2.22]4.91 [3.69, 6.16]9% [0%, 16%]18%41%-0.56+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC4.12 [3.21, 5.40]2.39-3.78 [-5.40, -2.14]4.91 [3.76, 6.21]9% [0%, 17%]18%41%-0.56+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC3.93 [3.21, 4.78]2.62-3.38 [-4.62, -2.14]4.68 [3.69, 5.65]5% [0%, 13%]36%45%-0.49+0.032026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC3.93 [3.09, 5.00]2.62-3.38 [-4.89, -1.89]4.68 [3.57, 5.79]5% [0%, 12%]36%45%-0.49+0.032026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC3.93 [3.01, 4.97]2.62-3.38 [-4.97, -1.91]4.68 [3.46, 5.88]5% [0%, 14%]36%45%-0.49+0.032026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC3.93 [3.07, 5.08]2.62-3.38 [-5.08, -1.78]4.68 [3.54, 5.89]5% [0%, 13%]36%45%-0.49+0.032026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.01 [1.24, 2.82]2.03+0.15 [-0.57, 1.01]2.60 [1.75, 3.22]41% [18%, 60%]50%59%+0.45+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.01 [1.10, 2.75]2.03+0.15 [-0.61, 1.07]2.60 [1.57, 3.20]41% [14%, 62%]50%59%+0.45+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.01 [1.08, 2.86]2.03+0.15 [-0.53, 1.06]2.60 [1.51, 3.26]41% [14%, 62%]50%59%+0.45+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.01 [1.07, 2.83]2.03+0.15 [-0.58, 1.05]2.60 [1.43, 3.25]41% [14%, 62%]50%59%+0.45+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC1.95 [1.30, 2.58]1.96+0.07 [-0.66, 1.04]2.51 [1.73, 3.10]45% [23%, 65%]55%68%+0.46+0.452026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC1.95 [1.25, 2.57]1.96+0.07 [-0.66, 1.27]2.51 [1.65, 3.06]45% [21%, 67%]55%68%+0.46+0.452026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC1.95 [1.24, 2.66]1.96+0.07 [-0.62, 1.19]2.51 [1.59, 3.14]45% [17%, 67%]55%68%+0.46+0.452026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC1.95 [1.21, 2.63]1.96+0.07 [-0.65, 1.21]2.51 [1.59, 3.09]45% [17%, 67%]55%68%+0.46+0.452026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC1.98 [1.03, 2.80]1.98-0.02 [-0.69, 0.71]2.46 [1.33, 3.16]36% [12%, 64%]45%77%+0.43+0.442026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC1.98 [0.88, 2.80]1.98-0.02 [-0.72, 0.77]2.46 [1.02, 3.12]36% [9%, 69%]45%77%+0.43+0.442026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC1.98 [0.87, 2.90]1.98-0.02 [-0.68, 0.78]2.46 [0.97, 3.23]36% [0%, 67%]45%77%+0.43+0.442026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC1.98 [0.88, 2.86]1.98-0.02 [-0.70, 0.81]2.46 [1.01, 3.21]36% [5%, 67%]45%77%+0.43+0.442026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC2.19 [1.34, 2.82]2.19+0.07 [-0.65, 0.95]2.60 [1.71, 3.12]27% [8%, 56%]45%68%+0.37+0.372026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC2.19 [1.17, 2.81]2.19+0.07 [-0.64, 1.09]2.60 [1.46, 3.11]27% [5%, 63%]45%68%+0.37+0.372026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC2.19 [1.18, 2.89]2.19+0.07 [-0.63, 1.10]2.60 [1.37, 3.17]27% [0%, 62%]45%68%+0.37+0.372026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC2.19 [1.20, 2.84]2.19+0.07 [-0.63, 1.14]2.60 [1.39, 3.15]27% [4%, 62%]45%68%+0.37+0.372026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHL, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-03: -7.22 °F2026-08-08: -4.49 °F2026-08-09: -3.87 °F2026-08-11: +0.98 °F2026-08-13: -4.75 °F2026-08-14: -2.9 °F2026-08-15: +0.38 °F2026-08-16: +6.69 °F2026-08-17: -1.21 °F2026-08-18: -3.97 °F2026-08-19: -4.84 °F2026-08-20: -7.11 °F2026-08-21: -3.48 °F2026-08-22: -4.15 °F2026-08-23: -2.73 °F2026-08-24: -5.77 °F2026-08-25: -0.08 °F2026-08-26: -1.86 °F2026-08-27: +0.73 °F2026-08-28: -3.46 °F2026-08-29: +0.66 °F2026-08-30: -2.77 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.77
2026-08-29+0.66
2026-08-28-3.46
2026-08-27+0.73
2026-08-26-1.86
2026-08-25-0.08
2026-08-24-5.77
2026-08-23-2.73
2026-08-22-4.15
2026-08-21-3.48
2026-08-20-7.11
2026-08-19-4.84
2026-08-18-3.97
2026-08-17-1.21
2026-08-16+6.69
2026-08-15+0.38
2026-08-14-2.90
2026-08-13-4.75
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11+0.98
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09-3.87
2026-08-08-4.49
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03-7.22

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHL, lead day 2-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 2 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -3 °F: 4 days-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 4 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 1 day7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.47 · P90 |e| 6.6 °F-100+10 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.002
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.004
-4.00-3.004
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.004
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.001
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08223.37 -2.51

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 +0.84 [0.24, 1.65] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -1.72 [-1.72, -1.72] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -1.82 [-1.82, -1.82] yes
NCEP GFS 22 -0.35 [-1.72, 0.79] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -1.10 [-1.85, 0.53] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -0.47 [-0.47, -0.47] yes
Persistence (baseline) 22 +0.64 [-0.06, 2.76] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KPHL ifs_hres lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHL/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KPHL (Philadelphia Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHL/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence