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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Philadelphia Intl · Aurora (IFS init) · lead day 2

KPHL · aurora_ifs · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC4.48 [4.48, 4.48]0.00-4.48 [-4.48, -4.48]4.48 [4.48, 4.48]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC4.48 [4.48, 4.48]0.00-4.48 [-4.48, -4.48]4.48 [4.48, 4.48]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC4.48 [4.48, 4.48]0.00-4.48 [-4.48, -4.48]4.48 [4.48, 4.48]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall1 1 QC4.48 [4.48, 4.48]0.00-4.48 [-4.48, -4.48]4.48 [4.48, 4.48]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d1 1 QC3.92 [3.92, 3.92]0.00-3.92 [-3.92, -3.92]3.92 [3.92, 3.92]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d1 1 QC3.92 [3.92, 3.92]0.00-3.92 [-3.92, -3.92]3.92 [3.92, 3.92]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d1 1 QC3.92 [3.92, 3.92]0.00-3.92 [-3.92, -3.92]3.92 [3.92, 3.92]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall1 1 QC3.92 [3.92, 3.92]0.00-3.92 [-3.92, -3.92]3.92 [3.92, 3.92]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d1 1 QC5.26 [5.26, 5.26]0.00-5.26 [-5.26, -5.26]5.26 [5.26, 5.26]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d1 1 QC5.26 [5.26, 5.26]0.00-5.26 [-5.26, -5.26]5.26 [5.26, 5.26]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d1 1 QC5.26 [5.26, 5.26]0.00-5.26 [-5.26, -5.26]5.26 [5.26, 5.26]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall1 1 QC5.26 [5.26, 5.26]0.00-5.26 [-5.26, -5.26]5.26 [5.26, 5.26]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d1 1 QC4.64 [4.64, 4.64]0.00-4.64 [-4.64, -4.64]4.64 [4.64, 4.64]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d1 1 QC4.64 [4.64, 4.64]0.00-4.64 [-4.64, -4.64]4.64 [4.64, 4.64]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d1 1 QC4.64 [4.64, 4.64]0.00-4.64 [-4.64, -4.64]4.64 [4.64, 4.64]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall1 1 QC4.64 [4.64, 4.64]0.00-4.64 [-4.64, -4.64]4.64 [4.64, 4.64]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%——2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC0.42 [0.42, 0.42]0.00+0.42 [0.42, 0.42]0.42 [0.42, 0.42]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.93—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC0.42 [0.42, 0.42]0.00+0.42 [0.42, 0.42]0.42 [0.42, 0.42]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.93—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC0.42 [0.42, 0.42]0.00+0.42 [0.42, 0.42]0.42 [0.42, 0.42]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.93—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall1 1 QC0.42 [0.42, 0.42]0.00+0.42 [0.42, 0.42]0.42 [0.42, 0.42]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.93—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d1 1 QC1.10 [1.10, 1.10]0.00+1.10 [1.10, 1.10]1.10 [1.10, 1.10]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.82—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d1 1 QC1.10 [1.10, 1.10]0.00+1.10 [1.10, 1.10]1.10 [1.10, 1.10]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.82—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d1 1 QC1.10 [1.10, 1.10]0.00+1.10 [1.10, 1.10]1.10 [1.10, 1.10]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.82—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall1 1 QC1.10 [1.10, 1.10]0.00+1.10 [1.10, 1.10]1.10 [1.10, 1.10]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.82—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d1 1 QC0.56 [0.56, 0.56]0.00-0.56 [-0.56, -0.56]0.56 [0.56, 0.56]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.91—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d1 1 QC0.56 [0.56, 0.56]0.00-0.56 [-0.56, -0.56]0.56 [0.56, 0.56]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.91—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d1 1 QC0.56 [0.56, 0.56]0.00-0.56 [-0.56, -0.56]0.56 [0.56, 0.56]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.91—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall1 1 QC0.56 [0.56, 0.56]0.00-0.56 [-0.56, -0.56]0.56 [0.56, 0.56]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.91—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d1 1 QC0.11 [0.11, 0.11]0.00+0.11 [0.11, 0.11]0.11 [0.11, 0.11]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.98—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d1 1 QC0.11 [0.11, 0.11]0.00+0.11 [0.11, 0.11]0.11 [0.11, 0.11]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.98—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d1 1 QC0.11 [0.11, 0.11]0.00+0.11 [0.11, 0.11]0.11 [0.11, 0.11]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.98—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall1 1 QC0.11 [0.11, 0.11]0.00+0.11 [0.11, 0.11]0.11 [0.11, 0.11]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.98—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KPHL, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+5+2.50-2.5-52026-08-30: -4.48 °F2026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (1 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.48

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KPHL, lead day 2-5 to -4.5 °F: 0 days-4.5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3.5 °F: 0 days-3.5 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2.5 °F: 0 days-2.5 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1.5 °F: 0 days-1.5 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to -0.5 °F: 0 days-0.5 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 0.5 °F: 0 days0.5 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 1.5 °F: 0 days1.5 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 2.5 °F: 0 days2.5 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 3.5 °F: 0 days3.5 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 4.5 °F: 0 days4.5 to 5 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.48 · P90 |e| 4.48 °F-50+5 °Fn = 1 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-5.00-4.500
-4.50-4.001
-4.00-3.500
-3.50-3.000
-3.00-2.500
-2.50-2.000
-2.00-1.500
-1.50-1.000
-1.00-0.500
-0.50+0.000
+0.00+0.500
+0.50+1.000
+1.00+1.500
+1.50+2.000
+2.00+2.500
+2.50+3.000
+3.00+3.500
+3.50+4.000
+4.00+4.500
+4.50+5.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0814.48 -4.48

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Aurora (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 1 +1.37 [1.37, 1.37] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -0.11 [-0.11, -0.11] yes
NCEP GFS 1 +4.40 [4.40, 4.40] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 1 -0.42 [-0.42, -0.42] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 1 +1.72 [1.72, 1.72] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 +1.25 [1.25, 1.25] yes
Persistence (baseline) 1 +4.48 [4.48, 4.48] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KPHL aurora_ifs lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHL/model/aurora_ifs/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KPHL (Philadelphia Intl), model aurora_ifs, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHL/model/aurora_ifs/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence