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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Philadelphia Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 5

KPHL · ifs_hres · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC4.06 [3.24, 5.47]3.05-2.47 [-4.61, -0.39]4.58 [3.78, 5.67]11% [0%, 29%]22%28%-0.04+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC4.06 [3.13, 5.94]3.05-2.47 [-5.83, -0.28]4.58 [3.67, 6.04]11% [0%, 31%]22%28%-0.04+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC4.06 [2.95, 5.97]3.05-2.47 [-5.97, -0.13]4.58 [3.57, 6.04]11% [0%, 33%]22%28%-0.04+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 1 QC4.06 [3.05, 5.91]3.05-2.47 [-5.60, -0.29]4.58 [3.55, 5.99]11% [0%, 31%]22%28%-0.04+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 1 QC4.23 [3.29, 5.38]3.20-2.55 [-4.77, -0.15]4.89 [3.91, 5.76]11% [0%, 36%]17%33%-0.09+0.142026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 1 QC4.23 [3.11, 5.70]3.20-2.55 [-5.56, -0.11]4.89 [3.68, 6.05]11% [0%, 43%]17%33%-0.09+0.142026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 1 QC4.23 [2.94, 5.71]3.20-2.55 [-5.67, 0.17]4.89 [3.57, 5.92]11% [0%, 44%]17%33%-0.09+0.142026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 1 QC4.23 [3.07, 5.62]3.20-2.55 [-5.34, -0.15]4.89 [3.58, 5.87]11% [0%, 50%]17%33%-0.09+0.142026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d20 1 QC3.83 [3.00, 4.62]2.80-2.76 [-4.06, -1.61]4.37 [3.47, 5.16]10% [0%, 20%]25%35%-0.05+0.172026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d20 1 QC3.83 [2.80, 4.68]2.80-2.76 [-4.35, -1.50]4.37 [3.28, 5.21]10% [0%, 22%]25%35%-0.05+0.172026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d20 1 QC3.83 [2.78, 4.65]2.80-2.76 [-4.35, -1.37]4.37 [3.25, 5.22]10% [0%, 21%]25%35%-0.05+0.172026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall20 1 QC3.83 [2.77, 4.71]2.80-2.76 [-4.35, -1.48]4.37 [3.19, 5.20]10% [0%, 20%]25%35%-0.05+0.172026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d20 1 QC3.51 [2.54, 4.32]2.78-2.39 [-3.64, -1.17]4.04 [3.08, 4.78]10% [0%, 21%]25%40%+0.04+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d20 1 QC3.51 [2.35, 4.38]2.78-2.39 [-3.85, -0.96]4.04 [2.82, 4.88]10% [0%, 25%]25%40%+0.04+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d20 1 QC3.51 [2.29, 4.41]2.78-2.39 [-3.81, -0.83]4.04 [2.84, 4.89]10% [0%, 25%]25%40%+0.04+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall20 1 QC3.51 [2.18, 4.40]2.78-2.39 [-3.79, -0.85]4.04 [2.72, 4.85]10% [0%, 25%]25%40%+0.04+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC3.40 [2.61, 4.56]3.35-0.23 [-2.92, 1.43]3.89 [2.96, 4.92]0% [0%, 0%]33%50%-0.07-0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC3.40 [2.55, 4.70]3.35-0.23 [-3.94, 1.85]3.89 [2.86, 5.01]0% [0%, 0%]33%50%-0.07-0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC3.40 [2.49, 4.75]3.35-0.23 [-3.94, 1.94]3.89 [2.81, 5.09]0% [0%, 0%]33%50%-0.07-0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 1 QC3.40 [2.53, 4.75]3.35-0.23 [-3.94, 1.85]3.89 [2.82, 5.10]0% [0%, 0%]33%50%-0.07-0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 1 QC3.34 [2.54, 4.48]3.30-0.18 [-2.73, 1.49]3.80 [2.90, 4.76]6% [0%, 16%]28%50%-0.06-0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 1 QC3.34 [2.45, 4.60]3.30-0.18 [-3.96, 1.86]3.80 [2.81, 4.87]6% [0%, 18%]28%50%-0.06-0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 1 QC3.34 [2.42, 4.64]3.30-0.18 [-3.96, 2.10]3.80 [2.80, 4.91]6% [0%, 17%]28%50%-0.06-0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 1 QC3.34 [2.48, 4.66]3.30-0.18 [-3.96, 1.78]3.80 [2.79, 4.92]6% [0%, 16%]28%50%-0.06-0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d20 1 QC3.03 [2.10, 3.83]2.99-0.47 [-2.48, 0.87]3.43 [2.51, 4.06]15% [0%, 33%]30%50%+0.02+0.052026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d20 1 QC3.03 [2.05, 3.90]2.99-0.47 [-3.18, 1.12]3.43 [2.51, 4.11]15% [0%, 36%]30%50%+0.02+0.052026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d20 1 QC3.03 [2.02, 3.93]2.99-0.47 [-3.18, 1.26]3.43 [2.51, 4.16]15% [0%, 38%]30%50%+0.02+0.052026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall20 1 QC3.03 [2.06, 3.87]2.99-0.47 [-3.18, 1.10]3.43 [2.52, 4.06]15% [0%, 36%]30%50%+0.02+0.052026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d20 1 QC3.08 [2.27, 3.78]3.04-0.40 [-2.22, 0.87]3.45 [2.62, 4.08]10% [0%, 27%]30%50%+0.01+0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d20 1 QC3.08 [2.33, 3.86]3.04-0.40 [-2.89, 1.15]3.45 [2.67, 4.11]10% [0%, 30%]30%50%+0.01+0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d20 1 QC3.08 [2.29, 3.88]3.04-0.40 [-2.94, 1.27]3.45 [2.68, 4.15]10% [0%, 30%]30%50%+0.01+0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall20 1 QC3.08 [2.34, 3.78]3.04-0.40 [-2.91, 1.19]3.45 [2.69, 4.08]10% [0%, 29%]30%50%+0.01+0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHL, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-06: -7.08 °F2026-08-12: -4.57 °F2026-08-13: -6.43 °F2026-08-14: -5.8 °F2026-08-16: +5.79 °F2026-08-17: +4.33 °F2026-08-19: -2.25 °F2026-08-20: +4.24 °F2026-08-21: -3.57 °F2026-08-22: -3.09 °F2026-08-23: -1.42 °F2026-08-24: -3.06 °F2026-08-25: -4.44 °F2026-08-26: -7.69 °F2026-08-27: -0.97 °F2026-08-28: -6.38 °F2026-08-29: -0.76 °F2026-08-30: -1.26 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.26
2026-08-29-0.76
2026-08-28-6.38
2026-08-27-0.97
2026-08-26-7.69
2026-08-25-4.44
2026-08-24-3.06
2026-08-23-1.42
2026-08-22-3.09
2026-08-21-3.57
2026-08-20+4.24
2026-08-19-2.25
2026-08-18—
2026-08-17+4.33
2026-08-16+5.79
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14-5.80
2026-08-13-6.43
2026-08-12-4.57
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06-7.08

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHL, lead day 5-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 2 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 3 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 2 days5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.29 · P90 |e| 6.63 °F-100+10 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.002
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.003
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.002
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08184.06 -2.47

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 +1.22 [0.20, 2.84] yes
NCEP GFS 18 -0.85 [-2.16, 0.91] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -0.13 [-0.71, 1.00] no
Persistence (baseline) 18 +0.17 [-1.28, 2.95] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KPHL ifs_hres lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHL/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KPHL (Philadelphia Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHL/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence