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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Philadelphia Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 0

KPHL · ifs_hres · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC2.68 [2.26, 3.17]1.70-2.31 [-2.89, -1.75]3.10 [2.62, 3.52]12% [0%, 23%]38%54%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC2.68 [2.17, 3.26]1.70-2.31 [-3.01, -1.73]3.10 [2.49, 3.61]12% [0%, 24%]38%54%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC2.68 [2.18, 3.32]1.70-2.31 [-3.07, -1.68]3.10 [2.50, 3.62]12% [0%, 25%]38%54%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall24 1 QC2.68 [2.15, 3.23]1.70-2.31 [-3.01, -1.69]3.10 [2.49, 3.57]12% [0%, 24%]38%54%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d24 1 QC2.67 [2.01, 3.40]1.74-2.05 [-2.56, -1.60]3.10 [2.40, 3.72]25% [9%, 38%]25%62%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d24 1 QC2.67 [1.91, 3.47]1.74-2.05 [-2.64, -1.55]3.10 [2.24, 3.78]25% [6%, 40%]25%62%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d24 1 QC2.67 [1.93, 3.52]1.74-2.05 [-2.68, -1.55]3.10 [2.23, 3.79]25% [0%, 39%]25%62%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall24 1 QC2.67 [1.91, 3.46]1.74-2.05 [-2.61, -1.53]3.10 [2.24, 3.75]25% [0%, 40%]25%62%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC1.28 [0.79, 1.70]1.21-0.56 [-1.21, 0.01]1.71 [1.06, 2.22]54% [35%, 73%]79%96%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC1.28 [0.68, 1.73]1.21-0.56 [-1.33, 0.01]1.71 [0.90, 2.21]54% [33%, 75%]79%96%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC1.28 [0.67, 1.77]1.21-0.56 [-1.39, 0.02]1.71 [0.89, 2.28]54% [27%, 75%]79%96%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall24 1 QC1.28 [0.72, 1.73]1.21-0.56 [-1.42, -0.01]1.71 [0.94, 2.26]54% [23%, 73%]79%96%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d24 1 QC1.42 [0.98, 1.81]1.33-0.57 [-1.20, -0.04]1.83 [1.26, 2.24]50% [30%, 71%]75%92%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d24 1 QC1.42 [0.90, 1.84]1.33-0.57 [-1.26, -0.03]1.83 [1.14, 2.25]50% [28%, 72%]75%92%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d24 1 QC1.42 [0.88, 1.87]1.33-0.57 [-1.30, 0.01]1.83 [1.11, 2.31]50% [25%, 75%]75%92%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall24 1 QC1.42 [0.93, 1.87]1.33-0.57 [-1.36, -0.02]1.83 [1.16, 2.28]50% [25%, 71%]75%92%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHL, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-01: -2.15 °F2026-08-08: -2.29 °F2026-08-09: -4.14 °F2026-08-10: +1.03 °F2026-08-11: -1.3 °F2026-08-12: -3.75 °F2026-08-13: -3.06 °F2026-08-14: +0.34 °F2026-08-15: -1.47 °F2026-08-16: +1.12 °F2026-08-17: -3.8 °F2026-08-18: -2.76 °F2026-08-19: -4.74 °F2026-08-20: +1.7 °F2026-08-21: -5.07 °F2026-08-22: -2.33 °F2026-08-23: -3.21 °F2026-08-24: -4.18 °F2026-08-25: -0.38 °F2026-08-26: -1.96 °F2026-08-27: +0.31 °F2026-08-28: -6.09 °F2026-08-29: -3.98 °F2026-08-30: -3.26 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.26
2026-08-29-3.98
2026-08-28-6.09
2026-08-27+0.31
2026-08-26-1.96
2026-08-25-0.38
2026-08-24-4.18
2026-08-23-3.21
2026-08-22-2.33
2026-08-21-5.07
2026-08-20+1.70
2026-08-19-4.74
2026-08-18-2.76
2026-08-17-3.80
2026-08-16+1.12
2026-08-15-1.47
2026-08-14+0.34
2026-08-13-3.06
2026-08-12-3.75
2026-08-11-1.30
2026-08-10+1.03
2026-08-09-4.14
2026-08-08-2.29
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02—
2026-08-01-2.15

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHL, lead day 0-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -3 °F: 6 days-3 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 2 °F: 3 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.54 · P90 |e| 4.57 °F-100+10 °Fn = 24 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.003
-4.00-3.006
-3.00-2.004
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.002
+1.00+2.003
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08242.68 -2.31

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 24 +0.69 [0.32, 1.16] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -1.39 [-2.73, -0.04] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 3 -0.20 [-0.81, 0.40] no
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 -0.32 [-3.36, 2.72] no
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 -0.67 [-3.14, 0.57] no
NCEP GFS 24 +0.07 [-1.33, 1.22] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -1.64 [-2.67, -0.61] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 22 -1.58 [-2.13, -1.08] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 +1.53 [-0.06, 3.12] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 +1.76 [0.32, 2.48] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KPHL ifs_hres lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHL/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KPHL (Philadelphia Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHL/model/ifs_hres/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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