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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Philadelphia Intl · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 7

KPHL · aifs_single · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC3.55 [2.89, 4.09]1.83-3.14 [-3.99, -2.14]4.09 [3.27, 4.70]4% [0%, 14%]26%39%+0.07+0.502026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC3.55 [2.64, 4.09]1.83-3.14 [-4.02, -1.81]4.09 [2.97, 4.68]4% [0%, 16%]26%39%+0.07+0.502026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC3.55 [2.59, 4.13]1.83-3.14 [-4.11, -1.81]4.09 [2.95, 4.71]4% [0%, 15%]26%39%+0.07+0.502026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC3.55 [2.72, 4.08]1.83-3.14 [-4.04, -2.01]4.09 [3.08, 4.73]4% [0%, 17%]26%39%+0.07+0.502026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC3.04 [2.47, 3.53]1.86-2.49 [-3.38, -1.48]3.64 [2.93, 4.16]17% [0%, 38%]35%61%+0.20+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC3.04 [2.27, 3.54]1.86-2.49 [-3.42, -1.15]3.64 [2.66, 4.13]17% [0%, 40%]35%61%+0.20+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC3.04 [2.19, 3.54]1.86-2.49 [-3.48, -1.14]3.64 [2.63, 4.16]17% [0%, 43%]35%61%+0.20+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC3.04 [2.28, 3.52]1.86-2.49 [-3.43, -1.38]3.64 [2.70, 4.20]17% [0%, 40%]35%61%+0.20+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.97 [2.18, 3.71]2.13-2.61 [-3.49, -1.76]3.59 [2.78, 4.18]22% [4%, 41%]39%48%+0.22+0.422026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.97 [2.01, 3.83]2.13-2.61 [-3.72, -1.53]3.59 [2.62, 4.20]22% [0%, 43%]39%48%+0.22+0.422026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC2.97 [2.01, 3.82]2.13-2.61 [-3.75, -1.54]3.59 [2.66, 4.21]22% [0%, 43%]39%48%+0.22+0.422026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall23 1 QC2.97 [2.01, 3.90]2.13-2.61 [-3.82, -1.51]3.59 [2.66, 4.28]22% [0%, 44%]39%48%+0.22+0.422026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d23 1 QC2.68 [1.96, 3.29]2.17-1.96 [-2.91, -1.06]3.19 [2.43, 3.75]22% [8%, 39%]35%57%+0.30+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d23 1 QC2.68 [1.80, 3.37]2.17-1.96 [-3.21, -0.85]3.19 [2.26, 3.76]22% [5%, 41%]35%57%+0.30+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d23 1 QC2.68 [1.84, 3.39]2.17-1.96 [-3.23, -0.86]3.19 [2.33, 3.77]22% [5%, 43%]35%57%+0.30+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall23 1 QC2.68 [1.90, 3.41]2.17-1.96 [-3.26, -0.86]3.19 [2.35, 3.81]22% [0%, 43%]35%57%+0.30+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.56 [1.71, 3.33]2.52+0.49 [-0.30, 1.50]2.97 [1.93, 3.69]13% [4%, 25%]39%61%+0.37+0.322026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.56 [1.56, 3.30]2.52+0.49 [-0.28, 1.63]2.97 [1.71, 3.72]13% [3%, 27%]39%61%+0.37+0.322026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC2.56 [1.58, 3.40]2.52+0.49 [-0.38, 1.70]2.97 [1.71, 3.81]13% [4%, 25%]39%61%+0.37+0.322026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC2.56 [1.56, 3.34]2.52+0.49 [-0.31, 1.64]2.97 [1.71, 3.68]13% [0%, 29%]39%61%+0.37+0.322026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC2.65 [1.90, 3.40]2.53+1.02 [0.21, 2.03]3.10 [2.11, 3.89]17% [8%, 28%]39%65%+0.34+0.322026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC2.65 [1.83, 3.41]2.53+1.02 [0.25, 2.14]3.10 [2.03, 3.92]17% [7%, 29%]39%65%+0.34+0.322026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC2.65 [1.84, 3.52]2.53+1.02 [0.14, 2.25]3.10 [2.03, 4.04]17% [7%, 30%]39%65%+0.34+0.322026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC2.65 [1.85, 3.42]2.53+1.02 [0.20, 2.14]3.10 [2.03, 3.88]17% [7%, 29%]39%65%+0.34+0.322026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.46 [1.67, 3.01]2.46+0.07 [-0.84, 1.09]2.97 [2.06, 3.55]26% [13%, 50%]39%65%+0.39+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.46 [1.45, 3.05]2.46+0.07 [-0.82, 1.18]2.97 [1.78, 3.59]26% [14%, 59%]39%65%+0.39+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC2.46 [1.47, 3.13]2.46+0.07 [-0.92, 1.26]2.97 [1.78, 3.68]26% [14%, 59%]39%65%+0.39+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall23 1 QC2.46 [1.33, 3.07]2.46+0.07 [-0.92, 1.24]2.97 [1.66, 3.60]26% [14%, 67%]39%65%+0.39+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d23 1 QC2.48 [1.85, 3.00]2.45+0.62 [-0.26, 1.65]3.03 [2.18, 3.66]22% [12%, 33%]43%65%+0.39+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d23 1 QC2.48 [1.75, 3.03]2.45+0.62 [-0.24, 1.73]3.03 [2.08, 3.70]22% [12%, 33%]43%65%+0.39+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d23 1 QC2.48 [1.71, 3.12]2.45+0.62 [-0.35, 1.78]3.03 [2.05, 3.78]22% [12%, 33%]43%65%+0.39+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall23 1 QC2.48 [1.63, 3.05]2.45+0.62 [-0.33, 1.79]3.03 [1.94, 3.71]22% [11%, 33%]43%65%+0.39+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KPHL, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-08: -1.64 °F2026-08-09: -3.05 °F2026-08-10: +0.89 °F2026-08-11: -2.76 °F2026-08-12: -9.47 °F2026-08-13: -3.27 °F2026-08-14: -3.19 °F2026-08-15: -6.87 °F2026-08-16: -1.19 °F2026-08-17: -1.4 °F2026-08-18: -1.44 °F2026-08-19: -5.75 °F2026-08-20: +3.77 °F2026-08-21: -2.79 °F2026-08-22: -1.83 °F2026-08-23: -2.1 °F2026-08-24: -5.31 °F2026-08-25: -4.39 °F2026-08-26: -3.55 °F2026-08-27: -6.39 °F2026-08-28: -3.6 °F2026-08-29: -3.44 °F2026-08-30: -3.54 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.54
2026-08-29-3.44
2026-08-28-3.60
2026-08-27-6.39
2026-08-26-3.55
2026-08-25-4.39
2026-08-24-5.31
2026-08-23-2.10
2026-08-22-1.83
2026-08-21-2.79
2026-08-20+3.77
2026-08-19-5.75
2026-08-18-1.44
2026-08-17-1.40
2026-08-16-1.19
2026-08-15-6.87
2026-08-14-3.19
2026-08-13-3.27
2026-08-12-9.47
2026-08-11-2.76
2026-08-10+0.89
2026-08-09-3.05
2026-08-08-1.64

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KPHL, lead day 7-10 to -9 °F: 1 day-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 7 days-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 5 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.27 · P90 |e| 6.26 °F-100+10 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.001
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.007
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.005
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08233.55 -3.14

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 23 -0.22 [-0.94, 0.93] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 23 -0.98 [-2.01, -0.13] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 +0.58 [-2.07, 1.57] no
Persistence (baseline) 23 -0.28 [-1.69, 1.16] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KPHL aifs_single lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHL/model/aifs_single/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KPHL (Philadelphia Intl), model aifs_single, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHL/model/aifs_single/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence