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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Philadelphia Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 7

KPHL · ifs_hres · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC2.88 [2.06, 4.21]2.58-1.53 [-3.09, -0.61]3.52 [2.75, 4.56]22% [0%, 38%]39%56%+0.30+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC2.88 [2.00, 4.82]2.58-1.53 [-4.48, -0.50]3.52 [2.69, 4.97]22% [0%, 40%]39%56%+0.30+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC2.88 [1.86, 4.92]2.58-1.53 [-4.06, -0.44]3.52 [2.41, 5.08]22% [0%, 40%]39%56%+0.30+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 1 QC2.88 [1.92, 4.92]2.58-1.53 [-4.14, -0.60]3.52 [2.54, 5.12]22% [0%, 38%]39%56%+0.30+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 1 QC2.82 [2.05, 3.94]2.57-1.22 [-2.62, -0.34]3.38 [2.63, 4.27]17% [0%, 30%]44%61%+0.32+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 1 QC2.82 [2.03, 4.48]2.57-1.22 [-3.84, -0.21]3.38 [2.50, 4.68]17% [0%, 33%]44%61%+0.32+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 1 QC2.82 [1.84, 4.49]2.57-1.22 [-3.28, -0.17]3.38 [2.39, 4.65]17% [0%, 33%]44%61%+0.32+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 1 QC2.82 [1.88, 4.48]2.57-1.22 [-3.61, -0.24]3.38 [2.36, 4.68]17% [0%, 33%]44%61%+0.32+0.332026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC4.53 [3.36, 5.61]3.11-3.81 [-5.38, -2.38]5.24 [4.04, 6.14]0% [0%, 0%]29%41%-0.04+0.212026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC4.53 [3.27, 5.64]3.11-3.81 [-5.58, -2.23]5.24 [3.95, 6.16]0% [0%, 0%]29%41%-0.04+0.212026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC4.53 [3.20, 5.66]3.11-3.81 [-5.58, -2.13]5.24 [3.86, 6.17]0% [0%, 0%]29%41%-0.04+0.212026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 1 QC4.53 [3.11, 5.67]3.11-3.81 [-5.58, -2.14]5.24 [3.77, 6.18]0% [0%, 0%]29%41%-0.04+0.212026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 1 QC4.56 [3.35, 5.65]3.23-3.35 [-5.08, -1.75]5.13 [3.98, 5.97]0% [0%, 0%]18%41%-0.05+0.182026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 1 QC4.56 [3.23, 5.75]3.23-3.35 [-5.59, -1.55]5.13 [3.87, 6.04]0% [0%, 0%]18%41%-0.05+0.182026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 1 QC4.56 [3.23, 5.75]3.23-3.35 [-5.59, -1.51]5.13 [3.91, 6.08]0% [0%, 0%]18%41%-0.05+0.182026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 1 QC4.56 [3.11, 5.81]3.23-3.35 [-5.59, -1.54]5.13 [3.78, 6.12]0% [0%, 0%]18%41%-0.05+0.182026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC2.59 [1.81, 3.47]2.67+1.35 [-0.29, 2.66]3.47 [2.55, 4.34]44% [33%, 62%]56%61%+0.42+0.292026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC2.59 [1.41, 3.69]2.67+1.35 [-0.95, 2.95]3.47 [2.05, 4.52]44% [33%, 67%]56%61%+0.42+0.292026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC2.59 [1.52, 3.78]2.67+1.35 [-0.95, 2.82]3.47 [2.04, 4.68]44% [31%, 68%]56%61%+0.42+0.292026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 1 QC2.59 [1.59, 3.84]2.67+1.35 [-0.95, 3.12]3.47 [2.28, 4.68]44% [30%, 71%]56%61%+0.42+0.292026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 1 QC2.66 [1.86, 3.60]2.75+1.44 [-0.15, 2.78]3.58 [2.70, 4.44]44% [27%, 64%]56%56%+0.41+0.262026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 1 QC2.66 [1.52, 3.78]2.75+1.44 [-0.92, 3.08]3.58 [2.19, 4.64]44% [25%, 72%]56%56%+0.41+0.262026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 1 QC2.66 [1.48, 3.91]2.75+1.44 [-0.92, 3.02]3.58 [2.18, 4.77]44% [22%, 72%]56%56%+0.41+0.262026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 1 QC2.66 [1.68, 3.89]2.75+1.44 [-0.92, 3.19]3.58 [2.38, 4.81]44% [25%, 71%]56%56%+0.41+0.262026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC2.88 [1.69, 3.98]2.95+0.41 [-0.89, 2.05]3.57 [2.40, 4.40]29% [4%, 59%]47%59%+0.37+0.252026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC2.88 [1.43, 4.03]2.95+0.41 [-0.98, 2.44]3.57 [2.05, 4.47]29% [0%, 67%]47%59%+0.37+0.252026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC2.88 [1.37, 4.19]2.95+0.41 [-0.90, 2.42]3.57 [2.02, 4.53]29% [0%, 67%]47%59%+0.37+0.252026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 1 QC2.88 [1.46, 4.19]2.95+0.41 [-1.02, 2.66]3.57 [2.08, 4.57]29% [0%, 67%]47%59%+0.37+0.252026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 1 QC2.91 [1.71, 4.07]3.01+0.56 [-0.69, 2.17]3.65 [2.56, 4.47]29% [5%, 59%]41%53%+0.36+0.242026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 1 QC2.91 [1.42, 4.10]3.01+0.56 [-0.70, 2.57]3.65 [2.09, 4.48]29% [0%, 67%]41%53%+0.36+0.242026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 1 QC2.91 [1.34, 4.19]3.01+0.56 [-0.70, 2.57]3.65 [2.17, 4.56]29% [0%, 67%]41%53%+0.36+0.242026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 1 QC2.91 [1.40, 4.23]3.01+0.56 [-0.68, 2.74]3.65 [2.24, 4.62]29% [0%, 64%]41%53%+0.36+0.242026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHL, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-08: -5.78 °F2026-08-14: -2.99 °F2026-08-15: -4.67 °F2026-08-16: +6.38 °F2026-08-17: -4.97 °F2026-08-18: +0.88 °F2026-08-19: +0.14 °F2026-08-20: +1.01 °F2026-08-21: -0.01 °F2026-08-22: -1.14 °F2026-08-23: -3.04 °F2026-08-24: -5.89 °F2026-08-25: +3.47 °F2026-08-26: -4.24 °F2026-08-27: -1.75 °F2026-08-28: -2.86 °F2026-08-29: +0.31 °F2026-08-30: -2.3 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.30
2026-08-29+0.31
2026-08-28-2.86
2026-08-27-1.75
2026-08-26-4.24
2026-08-25+3.47
2026-08-24-5.89
2026-08-23-3.04
2026-08-22-1.14
2026-08-21-0.01
2026-08-20+1.01
2026-08-19+0.14
2026-08-18+0.88
2026-08-17-4.97
2026-08-16+6.38
2026-08-15-4.67
2026-08-14-2.99
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08-5.78

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KPHL, lead day 7-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 3 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 1 day7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.93 · P90 |e| 5.81 °F-100+10 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.003
-4.00-3.001
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.003
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.001
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08182.88 -1.53

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 -0.58 [-1.57, 2.07] no
NCEP GFS 18 -0.99 [-1.70, 1.25] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -1.75 [-2.96, 0.13] no
Persistence (baseline) 18 -1.23 [-2.69, 2.48] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KPHL ifs_hres lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHL/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KPHL (Philadelphia Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KPHL/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence