Model
Pangu-Weather (GFS init)
pangu_gfs
source aiwp · product PANG · initial conditions from GFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC. Scores use the latest model version segment, PANG_v100, starting 2026-01-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.
Instantaneous temperature — MAE °F by stationt2
Scored against the observed 2 m temperature at the same instant (ASOS routine METAR). This is the headline variable: the same four instants on the forecast and the observation side. These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 2.62−0.44 · n=56 | 3.21−1.30 · n=56 | 3.44−1.84 · n=55 | 3.44−2.08 · n=54 | 3.56−1.87 · n=55 | 3.86−2.30 · n=56 | 4.25−2.59 · n=55 | 4.47−2.77 · n=55 | 4.95−2.39 · n=55 | 5.24−2.21 · n=55 | |
| KAUS | 2.97+1.30 · n=56 | 2.86+0.73 · n=56 | 2.95−0.05 · n=55 | 3.30−0.15 · n=54 | 3.21−0.53 · n=55 | 3.41−0.55 · n=56 | 3.72−0.69 · n=55 | 4.32−1.00 · n=55 | 5.16−1.63 · n=55 | 5.66−2.56 · n=55 | |
| KBOS | 2.43−1.26 · n=53 | 2.39−0.83 · n=51 | 2.46−0.52 · n=52 | 2.58−0.31 · n=52 | 2.77+0.00 · n=52 | 3.24−0.36 · n=53 | 3.80+0.53 · n=52 | 3.88+0.92 · n=53 | 4.83+1.16 · n=52 | 4.90+0.40 · n=52 | |
| KDCA | 2.45−1.18 · n=56 | 2.44−0.82 · n=56 | 2.52−0.73 · n=55 | 2.68−0.73 · n=54 | 3.01−0.78 · n=55 | 3.79−1.12 · n=56 | 4.31−1.01 · n=55 | 4.41−0.73 · n=55 | 5.06−0.41 · n=55 | 5.29−0.29 · n=55 | |
| KDEN | 3.59−2.04 · n=56 | 4.02−2.46 · n=56 | 4.76−3.35 · n=55 | 4.90−3.15 · n=54 | 5.05−3.36 · n=55 | 5.19−3.63 · n=56 | 5.99−3.65 · n=55 | 6.06−2.83 · n=55 | 8.14−4.36 · n=55 | — | |
| KDFW | 1.64+0.07 · n=56 | 2.27−1.03 · n=56 | 2.56−1.71 · n=55 | 2.97−2.08 · n=54 | 3.50−2.58 · n=55 | 3.94−2.97 · n=56 | 4.60−3.16 · n=55 | 5.64−3.73 · n=55 | 6.23−4.67 · n=55 | 7.29−5.56 · n=55 | |
| KEWR | 2.11−0.79 · n=56 | 2.49−0.97 · n=56 | 2.66−0.86 · n=55 | 3.07−1.19 · n=54 | 3.40−1.31 · n=55 | 3.95−1.37 · n=56 | 4.24−1.12 · n=55 | 3.95−0.87 · n=55 | 4.86−0.43 · n=55 | 5.11−0.70 · n=55 | |
| KIAH | 1.79+0.69 · n=56 | 2.19−0.17 · n=56 | 2.45−0.82 · n=55 | 2.70−1.24 · n=54 | 2.93−1.38 · n=55 | 3.14−1.18 · n=56 | 3.19−1.42 · n=55 | 3.76−1.69 · n=55 | 4.66−2.06 · n=55 | 5.17−3.00 · n=55 | |
| KLAS | 5.39−5.22 · n=56 | 5.32−5.22 · n=56 | 5.01−4.88 · n=55 | 5.11−4.68 · n=54 | 4.81−4.29 · n=55 | 4.99−4.22 · n=56 | 5.90−3.91 · n=55 | 6.48−4.44 · n=55 | 6.90−5.28 · n=55 | — | |
| KLAX | 2.14−0.83 · n=56 | 2.34−1.34 · n=56 | 2.75−1.98 · n=55 | 3.29−2.49 · n=54 | 3.59−2.88 · n=55 | 3.72−2.81 · n=56 | 4.04−2.56 · n=55 | 4.35−2.72 · n=55 | 5.26−3.77 · n=55 | — | |
| KMIA | 1.91+0.18 · n=56 | 1.99−0.96 · n=56 | 2.20−1.01 · n=55 | 2.46−1.43 · n=54 | 2.54−1.46 · n=55 | 2.64−1.28 · n=56 | 2.63−1.39 · n=55 | 2.82−1.47 · n=55 | 2.99−1.56 · n=55 | 3.08−1.70 · n=55 | |
| KMSP | 2.54−1.45 · n=56 | 2.87−1.71 · n=56 | 3.25−2.14 · n=55 | 3.50−2.25 · n=54 | 4.20−2.27 · n=55 | 5.04−2.69 · n=56 | 5.36−2.99 · n=55 | 5.80−2.52 · n=55 | 6.52−2.28 · n=55 | 7.39−3.80 · n=55 | |
| KMSY | 1.84−0.25 · n=56 | 2.07−0.50 · n=56 | 2.15−0.89 · n=55 | 2.39−1.24 · n=54 | 2.48−1.53 · n=55 | 2.78−1.66 · n=56 | 3.12−1.31 · n=55 | 3.36−1.84 · n=55 | 3.80−1.65 · n=55 | 4.22−1.54 · n=55 | |
| KNYC | 2.18+0.81 · n=56 | 2.63+0.53 · n=55 | 2.74+0.68 · n=54 | 2.88+0.38 · n=54 | 3.21+0.33 · n=55 | 3.66+0.14 · n=55 | 3.95+0.43 · n=54 | 3.99+0.78 · n=54 | 4.79+1.11 · n=55 | 4.81+0.79 · n=54 | |
| KOKC | 3.10+1.13 · n=56 | 3.10+0.05 · n=56 | 3.64−0.72 · n=55 | 3.74−1.16 · n=54 | 4.20−1.60 · n=55 | 5.04−1.92 · n=56 | 5.66−2.50 · n=55 | 6.39−3.56 · n=55 | 6.94−4.14 · n=55 | 7.71−4.46 · n=55 | |
| KORD | 1.89−0.21 · n=56 | 1.98−0.24 · n=56 | 2.64−0.17 · n=55 | 2.82−0.24 · n=54 | 3.08−0.39 · n=55 | 3.60−0.07 · n=56 | 3.84+0.26 · n=55 | 4.16−0.52 · n=55 | 5.12−0.12 · n=55 | 5.35+0.37 · n=55 | |
| KPHL | 2.62−1.73 · n=56 | 2.67−1.51 · n=56 | 2.82−1.29 · n=55 | 3.20−1.57 · n=54 | 3.36−1.67 · n=55 | 4.12−1.63 · n=56 | 4.36−1.73 · n=55 | 4.21−1.51 · n=55 | 5.19−0.99 · n=55 | 5.33−1.03 · n=55 | |
| KPHX | 4.10−3.10 · n=56 | 4.47−2.99 · n=56 | 4.73−3.04 · n=55 | 4.71−2.71 · n=54 | 4.72−2.62 · n=55 | 4.92−2.04 · n=56 | 5.24−2.30 · n=55 | 6.03−2.61 · n=55 | 6.34−3.41 · n=55 | — | |
| KSAN | 2.74−2.22 · n=56 | 2.99−2.52 · n=56 | 3.29−2.97 · n=55 | 3.71−3.30 · n=54 | 4.07−3.65 · n=55 | 4.17−3.67 · n=56 | 4.43−3.85 · n=55 | 4.73−4.01 · n=55 | 5.39−4.73 · n=55 | — | |
| KSAT | 2.00+0.40 · n=56 | 2.31−0.16 · n=56 | 2.52−0.85 · n=55 | 2.75−1.01 · n=54 | 2.93−1.20 · n=55 | 3.15−1.27 · n=56 | 3.59−1.48 · n=55 | 3.93−1.63 · n=55 | 4.70−2.23 · n=55 | 5.23−3.14 · n=55 | |
| KSEA | 2.19+1.17 · n=56 | 2.18+0.71 · n=56 | 2.49+0.68 · n=55 | 2.69+0.63 · n=54 | 2.75+0.55 · n=55 | 3.05+0.35 · n=56 | 3.46+0.65 · n=55 | 3.96+0.89 · n=55 | 4.12+0.54 · n=55 | — | |
| KSFO | 2.47−1.03 · n=56 | 2.71−1.12 · n=56 | 2.97−1.49 · n=55 | 3.01−1.61 · n=54 | 3.19−1.50 · n=55 | 3.32−1.46 · n=56 | 3.90−2.04 · n=55 | 3.84−2.14 · n=55 | 4.23−2.25 · n=55 | — | |
| KTTN | 2.25+1.09 · n=55 | 2.51+1.36 · n=55 | 2.73+1.63 · n=54 | 2.99+1.34 · n=54 | 3.39+1.49 · n=54 | 4.01+1.25 · n=56 | 4.42+1.59 · n=55 | 4.33+1.69 · n=55 | 5.29+2.28 · n=54 | 5.45+1.98 · n=55 |
Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.
+ model too warm − model too cold bias interval includes zero ★ lowest MAE among ranked models (n ≥ 30) = not distinguishable from the leader ▼ worse than the leader ▲ better than the leader — all three Holm-corrected within this table, over the family of comparisons against the leader; the uncorrected verdict for every pair is published in the pairwise table of each permanent link and in pairwise_latest.csv.gzn < 30 greyed and unranked CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval on the group's own days, and reads — when it could not be computed skill reads — when fewer than 10 days are common to the model and the baseline: the ratio of two means over a handful of shared days is not a number worth printing
Sampled daily maximum — MAE °F by stationtmax_s
Scored against the maximum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 2.92+2.81 · n=56 | 2.83+2.40 · n=56 | 2.55+1.30 · n=55 | 2.41+0.98 · n=54 | 2.90+1.05 · n=55 | 3.14+0.47 · n=56 | 3.95−0.34 · n=55 | 3.93−0.38 · n=55 | 4.38+0.33 · n=55 | 5.02+0.10 · n=55 | |
| KAUS | 1.57−0.42 · n=56 | 1.59−0.52 · n=56 | 1.99−1.39 · n=55 | 2.06−1.26 · n=54 | 2.24−1.29 · n=55 | 2.28−1.48 · n=56 | 2.62−1.58 · n=55 | 3.58−2.19 · n=55 | 4.54−2.97 · n=55 | 5.27−3.77 · n=55 | |
| KBOS | 1.78−0.03 · n=53 | 1.84+0.19 · n=51 | 2.30+0.04 · n=52 | 2.82+0.71 · n=52 | 3.38+1.23 · n=52 | 3.48−0.07 · n=53 | 4.43+2.09 · n=52 | 4.16+2.31 · n=53 | 5.90+2.44 · n=52 | 5.53+1.18 · n=52 | |
| KDCA | 1.92+1.33 · n=56 | 2.19+1.44 · n=56 | 2.43+1.04 · n=55 | 2.27+1.04 · n=54 | 2.57+1.18 · n=55 | 3.76+0.79 · n=56 | 4.43+1.17 · n=55 | 4.08+1.41 · n=55 | 5.49+1.48 · n=55 | 6.10+1.35 · n=55 | |
| KDEN | 2.40−1.70 · n=56 | 2.92−1.52 · n=56 | 3.72−2.44 · n=55 | 3.82−1.73 · n=54 | 4.31−2.54 · n=55 | 3.98−2.30 · n=56 | 4.98−2.08 · n=55 | 5.28−0.69 · n=55 | 8.17−2.58 · n=55 | — | |
| KDFW | 1.18+0.08 · n=56 | 1.58−0.26 · n=56 | 1.75−0.61 · n=55 | 1.92−0.98 · n=54 | 2.48−1.16 · n=55 | 2.83−1.64 · n=56 | 3.58−1.97 · n=55 | 4.79−2.58 · n=55 | 5.48−3.70 · n=55 | 6.90−4.78 · n=55 | |
| KEWR | 1.46+0.53 · n=56 | 1.91+0.34 · n=56 | 2.03+0.40 · n=55 | 2.53−0.02 · n=54 | 2.70−0.05 · n=55 | 3.59−0.15 · n=56 | 3.84+0.88 · n=55 | 3.96+0.54 · n=55 | 5.00+1.05 · n=55 | 5.17+0.62 · n=55 | |
| KIAH | 1.64+0.78 · n=56 | 1.94+0.64 · n=56 | 2.04+0.01 · n=55 | 1.96+0.04 · n=54 | 2.03−0.34 · n=55 | 2.42+0.14 · n=56 | 2.47−0.54 · n=55 | 3.69−0.66 · n=55 | 3.76−1.74 · n=55 | 4.59−2.58 · n=55 | |
| KLAS | 5.50−5.30 · n=56 | 6.07−6.04 · n=56 | 5.90−5.78 · n=55 | 5.83−5.62 · n=54 | 5.54−5.11 · n=55 | 5.67−5.36 · n=56 | 6.93−4.85 · n=55 | 7.80−6.01 · n=55 | 7.88−6.80 · n=55 | — | |
| KLAX | 2.29−0.69 · n=56 | 2.52−0.48 · n=56 | 2.55−0.54 · n=55 | 2.72−0.95 · n=54 | 2.85−1.04 · n=55 | 3.14−0.68 · n=56 | 3.96−0.12 · n=55 | 3.92+0.09 · n=55 | 4.90−1.23 · n=55 | — | |
| KMIA | 2.55−1.21 · n=56 | 2.95−2.65 · n=56 | 2.81−2.23 · n=55 | 3.55−3.14 · n=54 | 3.68−2.87 · n=55 | 3.50−2.46 · n=56 | 3.41−2.52 · n=55 | 3.69−2.85 · n=55 | 4.23−3.07 · n=55 | 3.91−2.90 · n=55 | |
| KMSP | 1.55−0.43 · n=56 | 2.00−0.40 · n=56 | 2.14−0.59 · n=55 | 2.22−0.55 · n=54 | 3.22−0.68 · n=55 | 3.65−1.30 · n=56 | 4.09−0.96 · n=55 | 5.46−0.42 · n=55 | 5.80−0.17 · n=55 | 7.42−2.49 · n=55 | |
| KMSY | 1.49+0.29 · n=56 | 1.52+0.41 · n=56 | 1.58+0.19 · n=55 | 1.67−0.37 · n=54 | 1.66−0.63 · n=55 | 2.33−0.92 · n=56 | 2.56−1.10 · n=55 | 2.96−1.80 · n=55 | 3.19−1.34 · n=55 | 3.70−1.49 · n=55 | |
| KNYC | 3.27+3.14 · n=56 | 3.16+2.89 · n=55 | 3.46+2.94 · n=54 | 3.38+2.39 · n=54 | 3.48+2.56 · n=55 | 3.86+2.27 · n=55 | 4.58+3.26 · n=54 | 4.87+3.27 · n=54 | 5.35+3.66 · n=55 | 5.32+3.07 · n=54 | |
| KOKC | 2.08−0.20 · n=56 | 2.13−0.56 · n=56 | 2.32−1.22 · n=55 | 2.58−1.23 · n=54 | 3.10−1.87 · n=55 | 4.94−2.09 · n=56 | 4.64−2.90 · n=55 | 6.18−3.70 · n=55 | 6.64−4.64 · n=55 | 7.47−4.53 · n=55 | |
| KORD | 1.76−1.11 · n=56 | 1.92−1.20 · n=56 | 2.56−1.25 · n=55 | 2.78−1.49 · n=54 | 2.99−1.30 · n=55 | 3.22−1.12 · n=56 | 4.15−0.48 · n=55 | 4.07−1.15 · n=55 | 5.19−0.84 · n=55 | 5.18−0.27 · n=55 | |
| KPHL | 1.68+0.26 · n=56 | 2.13+0.11 · n=56 | 2.33+0.15 · n=55 | 2.58−0.26 · n=54 | 2.58−0.13 · n=55 | 3.89−0.19 · n=56 | 4.21+0.37 · n=55 | 3.84+0.29 · n=55 | 5.15+0.75 · n=55 | 5.13+0.54 · n=55 | |
| KPHX | 3.31−2.72 · n=56 | 4.09−3.50 · n=56 | 4.22−3.46 · n=55 | 4.41−3.51 · n=54 | 4.39−3.38 · n=55 | 4.49−2.75 · n=56 | 5.35−2.87 · n=55 | 6.22−3.13 · n=55 | 5.93−4.06 · n=55 | — | |
| KSAN | 3.46−3.41 · n=56 | 3.99−3.99 · n=56 | 4.40−4.40 · n=55 | 5.01−4.98 · n=54 | 5.50−5.45 · n=55 | 5.44−5.41 · n=56 | 5.81−5.59 · n=55 | 6.06−5.65 · n=55 | 7.13−6.49 · n=55 | — | |
| KSAT | 1.38+0.46 · n=56 | 1.60+0.25 · n=56 | 1.36−0.46 · n=55 | 1.65−0.33 · n=54 | 1.80−0.14 · n=55 | 1.92−0.49 · n=56 | 2.30−0.39 · n=55 | 2.75−1.09 · n=55 | 3.59−1.41 · n=55 | 4.59−2.69 · n=55 | |
| KSEA | 1.97+0.85 · n=56 | 2.17−0.22 · n=56 | 2.20−0.34 · n=55 | 2.62−1.07 · n=54 | 2.69−0.88 · n=55 | 3.58−1.17 · n=56 | 3.90−0.78 · n=55 | 4.71−0.73 · n=55 | 4.65−1.12 · n=55 | — | |
| KSFO | 3.27−2.52 · n=56 | 3.17−2.23 · n=56 | 3.33−2.29 · n=55 | 3.03−2.03 · n=54 | 3.30−1.95 · n=55 | 3.04−1.32 · n=56 | 4.73−2.16 · n=55 | 3.59−2.22 · n=55 | 4.55−2.26 · n=55 | — | |
| KTTN | 2.79+2.79 · n=55 | 3.01+2.66 · n=55 | 2.97+2.51 · n=54 | 3.14+2.23 · n=54 | 3.21+2.32 · n=54 | 4.13+2.07 · n=56 | 4.81+3.17 · n=55 | 4.38+2.71 · n=55 | 5.54+3.40 · n=54 | 5.74+3.02 · n=55 |
Sampled daily minimum — MAE °F by stationtmin_s
Scored against the minimum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 1.62−0.66 · n=56 | 1.98−1.09 · n=56 | 2.24−1.40 · n=55 | 2.00−1.19 · n=54 | 1.98−1.00 · n=55 | 2.30−1.29 · n=56 | 2.54−1.33 · n=55 | 3.09−1.67 · n=55 | 3.58−1.63 · n=55 | 3.85−1.26 · n=55 | |
| KAUS | 3.74+3.65 · n=56 | 3.41+3.16 · n=56 | 2.97+2.70 · n=55 | 3.31+2.91 · n=54 | 2.96+2.33 · n=55 | 2.92+2.27 · n=56 | 3.41+2.80 · n=55 | 3.32+2.59 · n=55 | 3.98+2.22 · n=55 | 4.45+1.48 · n=55 | |
| KBOS | 2.07−1.25 · n=53 | 1.96−0.51 · n=51 | 1.99−0.05 · n=52 | 1.95−0.01 · n=52 | 1.88−0.03 · n=52 | 2.63+0.20 · n=53 | 2.97+0.42 · n=52 | 3.32+0.70 · n=53 | 3.66+0.91 · n=52 | 3.95+0.53 · n=52 | |
| KDCA | 2.08−1.70 · n=56 | 1.91−0.95 · n=56 | 1.76−0.67 · n=55 | 1.99−0.44 · n=54 | 2.59−0.79 · n=55 | 3.47−1.15 · n=56 | 3.95−1.16 · n=55 | 4.29−0.65 · n=55 | 4.78−0.54 · n=55 | 5.01−0.67 · n=55 | |
| KDEN | 2.48−1.59 · n=56 | 3.00−2.07 · n=56 | 3.81−2.87 · n=55 | 3.81−2.97 · n=54 | 3.44−2.61 · n=55 | 3.99−3.06 · n=56 | 4.77−3.78 · n=55 | 4.38−2.68 · n=55 | 5.43−3.45 · n=55 | — | |
| KDFW | 1.41+0.25 · n=56 | 1.47−0.66 · n=56 | 1.64−1.19 · n=55 | 1.79−1.23 · n=54 | 2.32−1.67 · n=55 | 2.73−2.19 · n=56 | 3.26−2.05 · n=55 | 3.84−2.32 · n=55 | 4.50−2.90 · n=55 | 5.30−3.61 · n=55 | |
| KEWR | 1.57−0.43 · n=56 | 1.99−0.57 · n=56 | 2.26−0.45 · n=55 | 2.53−0.50 · n=54 | 2.93−0.84 · n=55 | 3.40−1.08 · n=56 | 3.85−0.97 · n=55 | 3.39−0.65 · n=55 | 4.10−0.07 · n=55 | 4.44−0.31 · n=55 | |
| KIAH | 1.51+1.08 · n=56 | 1.73+0.43 · n=56 | 1.67+0.22 · n=55 | 1.92−0.20 · n=54 | 2.07−0.10 · n=55 | 2.22+0.07 · n=56 | 1.95+0.45 · n=55 | 2.24−0.10 · n=55 | 3.43+0.25 · n=55 | 3.70−0.61 · n=55 | |
| KLAS | 5.54−5.42 · n=56 | 5.18−5.16 · n=56 | 4.84−4.84 · n=55 | 4.77−4.43 · n=54 | 4.28−3.96 · n=55 | 4.41−3.89 · n=56 | 4.46−3.48 · n=55 | 4.86−3.34 · n=55 | 5.40−4.21 · n=55 | — | |
| KLAX | 1.97−1.08 · n=56 | 1.91−1.51 · n=56 | 2.59−2.36 · n=55 | 2.87−2.70 · n=54 | 3.29−3.06 · n=55 | 3.19−2.94 · n=56 | 3.41−2.78 · n=55 | 3.42−2.85 · n=55 | 4.29−3.74 · n=55 | — | |
| KMIA | 1.57+0.88 · n=56 | 1.36+0.21 · n=56 | 1.47−0.07 · n=55 | 1.49−0.16 · n=54 | 1.71−0.43 · n=55 | 1.87−0.30 · n=56 | 1.74−0.42 · n=55 | 1.94−0.37 · n=55 | 2.12−0.63 · n=55 | 2.16−0.51 · n=55 | |
| KMSP | 2.36−1.96 · n=56 | 2.06−1.57 · n=56 | 2.36−1.60 · n=55 | 2.29−1.64 · n=54 | 3.16−1.53 · n=55 | 4.20−1.60 · n=56 | 4.35−2.55 · n=55 | 4.59−1.80 · n=55 | 5.79−1.44 · n=55 | 5.52−2.51 · n=55 | |
| KMSY | 1.64+0.43 · n=56 | 1.78+0.51 · n=56 | 1.52+0.19 · n=55 | 1.93+0.17 · n=54 | 1.61+0.05 · n=55 | 2.08−0.14 · n=56 | 2.44+0.41 · n=55 | 2.50+0.04 · n=55 | 3.33+0.29 · n=55 | 3.65+0.22 · n=55 | |
| KNYC | 1.55+0.13 · n=56 | 2.10−0.06 · n=55 | 2.37+0.15 · n=54 | 2.47+0.33 · n=54 | 2.65−0.05 · n=55 | 3.39−0.44 · n=55 | 3.28−0.26 · n=54 | 3.38+0.04 · n=54 | 4.51+0.45 · n=55 | 4.32+0.27 · n=54 | |
| KOKC | 3.57+3.15 · n=56 | 3.02+2.22 · n=56 | 3.05+1.64 · n=55 | 2.92+1.26 · n=54 | 3.07+1.02 · n=55 | 3.45+0.83 · n=56 | 4.30+0.97 · n=55 | 4.73−0.77 · n=55 | 5.16−0.51 · n=55 | 5.65−0.56 · n=55 | |
| KORD | 1.64+0.81 · n=56 | 1.76+1.23 · n=56 | 2.50+1.75 · n=55 | 2.38+1.64 · n=54 | 2.66+1.30 · n=55 | 3.41+1.62 · n=56 | 3.40+1.98 · n=55 | 3.80+1.22 · n=55 | 4.52+1.61 · n=55 | 5.20+2.14 · n=55 | |
| KPHL | 2.26−2.01 · n=56 | 2.13−1.37 · n=56 | 2.39−1.25 · n=55 | 2.66−0.88 · n=54 | 2.97−1.49 · n=55 | 3.61−1.68 · n=56 | 4.12−1.77 · n=55 | 3.95−1.60 · n=55 | 4.56−0.91 · n=55 | 5.03−1.17 · n=55 | |
| KPHX | 4.30−3.63 · n=56 | 4.30−3.10 · n=56 | 4.63−3.41 · n=55 | 4.01−2.54 · n=54 | 4.16−2.70 · n=55 | 4.22−2.34 · n=56 | 3.82−2.27 · n=55 | 4.66−3.06 · n=55 | 5.05−3.65 · n=55 | — | |
| KSAN | 2.08−0.48 · n=56 | 2.28−0.86 · n=56 | 2.19−1.14 · n=55 | 2.67−1.42 · n=54 | 2.73−1.57 · n=55 | 2.83−1.66 · n=56 | 2.99−2.01 · n=55 | 3.30−1.97 · n=55 | 3.48−2.42 · n=55 | — | |
| KSAT | 1.20−0.01 · n=56 | 1.41−0.21 · n=56 | 1.48−0.84 · n=55 | 1.67−0.77 · n=54 | 1.90−1.03 · n=55 | 2.10−0.92 · n=56 | 2.57−0.81 · n=55 | 2.62−0.62 · n=55 | 3.36−1.25 · n=55 | 3.76−1.53 · n=55 | |
| KSEA | 1.94+1.15 · n=56 | 1.60+0.87 · n=56 | 1.95+0.78 · n=55 | 2.27+1.00 · n=54 | 1.81+0.67 · n=55 | 2.12+0.45 · n=56 | 2.59+0.63 · n=55 | 2.25+0.89 · n=55 | 3.09+0.66 · n=55 | — | |
| KSFO | 1.56+0.04 · n=56 | 1.83−0.19 · n=56 | 1.68−0.39 · n=55 | 1.81−0.54 · n=54 | 1.92−0.47 · n=55 | 2.10−0.58 · n=56 | 2.41−0.83 · n=55 | 2.34−0.87 · n=55 | 2.57−1.02 · n=55 | — | |
| KTTN | 1.99+1.46 · n=55 | 2.28+1.67 · n=55 | 2.59+1.89 · n=54 | 2.68+1.91 · n=54 | 3.31+2.11 · n=54 | 3.33+1.37 · n=56 | 4.10+1.69 · n=55 | 3.94+1.80 · n=55 | 4.52+2.69 · n=54 | 5.23+2.25 · n=55 |
Against the NWS daily extremes (secondary)
This comparison scores four 6-hourly forecast samples against the true daily extreme, so it includes a sampling penalty. The size of that penalty depends on each model's own diurnal amplitude, which is one of the things this site measures, so these numbers are published for operational relevance and are never used for ranking.
Daily maximum vs NWS CLI
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 1.61−0.28 · n=56 | 1.86−0.73 · n=56 | 2.68−1.68 · n=55 | 2.97−2.26 · n=54 | 3.30−2.07 · n=55 | 4.12−2.60 · n=56 | 4.74−3.50 · n=55 | 5.07−3.36 · n=55 | 5.54−2.80 · n=55 | 5.91−2.95 · n=55 | |
| KAUS | 4.53−4.42 · n=56 | 4.71−4.54 · n=56 | 5.51−5.45 · n=55 | 5.46−5.32 · n=54 | 5.36−5.34 · n=55 | 5.46−5.42 · n=56 | 6.06−5.74 · n=55 | 6.80−6.10 · n=55 | 7.52−6.77 · n=55 | 8.87−7.86 · n=55 | |
| KBOS | 2.72−1.99 · n=56 | 2.60−1.69 · n=55 | 3.08−1.56 · n=54 | 3.09−0.76 · n=53 | 3.88−0.63 · n=54 | 4.33−2.19 · n=56 | 4.63+0.11 · n=54 | 4.10+0.67 · n=55 | 6.02+0.39 · n=55 | 5.32−0.45 · n=54 | |
| KDCA | 1.69−0.70 · n=56 | 2.20−0.95 · n=56 | 2.54−1.20 · n=55 | 2.48−1.29 · n=54 | 2.46−0.98 · n=55 | 3.99−1.58 · n=56 | 4.60−1.03 · n=55 | 4.34−1.03 · n=55 | 5.89−0.50 · n=55 | 6.03−0.92 · n=55 | |
| KDEN | 6.20−6.20 · n=56 | 5.81−5.79 · n=56 | 6.76−6.76 · n=55 | 6.31−6.11 · n=54 | 7.24−7.06 · n=55 | 7.18−6.80 · n=56 | 7.42−6.18 · n=55 | 6.88−5.27 · n=55 | 9.90−7.02 · n=55 | — | |
| KDFW | 3.71−3.60 · n=56 | 3.76−3.69 · n=56 | 4.50−4.28 · n=55 | 4.66−4.46 · n=54 | 4.89−4.63 · n=55 | 5.60−5.17 · n=56 | 5.91−5.41 · n=55 | 7.14−6.00 · n=55 | 8.28−7.48 · n=55 | 9.42−8.37 · n=55 | |
| KEWR | 1.98−1.54 · n=56 | 2.17−1.59 · n=56 | 2.31−1.53 · n=55 | 3.07−2.23 · n=54 | 3.41−1.85 · n=55 | 4.28−2.16 · n=56 | 4.10−1.04 · n=55 | 4.14−1.50 · n=55 | 5.41−0.86 · n=55 | 5.19−1.16 · n=55 | |
| KIAH | 3.23−2.95 · n=56 | 3.63−3.20 · n=56 | 4.26−3.59 · n=55 | 4.05−3.42 · n=54 | 4.31−3.94 · n=55 | 4.25−3.41 · n=56 | 4.71−4.21 · n=55 | 5.63−4.39 · n=55 | 6.16−5.41 · n=55 | 7.35−6.47 · n=55 | |
| KLAS | 7.21−7.08 · n=56 | 7.64−7.64 · n=56 | 7.49−7.49 · n=55 | 7.43−7.33 · n=54 | 7.28−6.96 · n=55 | 7.09−7.04 · n=56 | 8.25−6.68 · n=55 | 8.80−7.46 · n=55 | 9.22−8.44 · n=55 | — | |
| KLAX | 3.70−3.40 · n=56 | 3.62−3.24 · n=56 | 3.76−3.39 · n=55 | 4.13−3.69 · n=54 | 4.20−3.64 · n=55 | 4.28−3.52 · n=56 | 4.61−2.55 · n=55 | 4.48−2.77 · n=55 | 5.70−3.87 · n=55 | — | |
| KMIA | 3.68−3.68 · n=56 | 4.51−4.51 · n=56 | 4.76−4.76 · n=55 | 5.31−5.31 · n=54 | 5.32−5.21 · n=55 | 5.31−5.21 · n=56 | 5.03−4.94 · n=55 | 5.40−5.40 · n=55 | 5.37−5.31 · n=55 | 5.27−5.17 · n=55 | |
| KMSP | 3.22−3.18 · n=56 | 3.61−3.31 · n=56 | 4.11−3.48 · n=55 | 3.90−3.22 · n=54 | 4.80−3.51 · n=55 | 5.51−3.94 · n=56 | 5.47−3.68 · n=55 | 6.32−3.20 · n=55 | 6.35−2.75 · n=55 | 8.81−5.36 · n=55 | |
| KMSY | 2.43−2.41 · n=56 | 2.60−2.46 · n=56 | 2.77−2.59 · n=55 | 3.16−3.11 · n=54 | 3.57−3.54 · n=55 | 3.93−3.67 · n=56 | 4.06−3.75 · n=55 | 4.89−4.56 · n=55 | 4.92−4.07 · n=55 | 5.33−4.18 · n=55 | |
| KNYC | 1.92+1.32 · n=56 | 1.95+0.94 · n=56 | 2.37+0.92 · n=55 | 2.54+0.61 · n=54 | 2.84+0.71 · n=55 | 3.58+0.40 · n=56 | 3.80+1.48 · n=55 | 4.00+1.35 · n=55 | 4.77+1.84 · n=55 | 4.92+1.41 · n=55 | |
| KOKC | 4.17−3.64 · n=56 | 4.34−4.08 · n=56 | 4.79−4.58 · n=55 | 5.16−4.92 · n=54 | 5.68−5.40 · n=55 | 7.10−5.54 · n=56 | 7.08−6.26 · n=55 | 8.71−7.24 · n=55 | 9.24−8.06 · n=55 | 9.81−8.01 · n=55 | |
| KORD | 3.50−3.45 · n=56 | 3.39−3.25 · n=56 | 3.88−3.54 · n=55 | 4.06−3.69 · n=54 | 4.15−3.59 · n=55 | 4.15−3.24 · n=56 | 4.81−2.79 · n=55 | 4.88−3.33 · n=55 | 5.63−2.96 · n=55 | 5.87−2.40 · n=55 | |
| KPHL | 2.29−1.96 · n=56 | 2.81−2.12 · n=56 | 2.90−1.96 · n=55 | 3.28−2.65 · n=54 | 3.51−2.42 · n=55 | 4.57−2.44 · n=56 | 4.48−1.68 · n=55 | 4.12−1.95 · n=55 | 5.82−1.40 · n=55 | 5.45−1.68 · n=55 | |
| KPHX | 5.50−5.19 · n=56 | 6.06−5.80 · n=56 | 6.07−5.62 · n=55 | 6.16−5.74 · n=54 | 6.16−5.71 · n=55 | 5.95−4.93 · n=56 | 6.55−4.98 · n=55 | 7.60−5.48 · n=55 | 7.67−6.35 · n=55 | — | |
| KSAN | 5.65−5.65 · n=56 | 6.45−6.45 · n=56 | 6.76−6.76 · n=55 | 7.26−7.26 · n=54 | 7.71−7.71 · n=55 | 7.83−7.83 · n=56 | 7.95−7.92 · n=55 | 8.21−8.21 · n=55 | 9.36−9.07 · n=55 | — | |
| KSAT | 3.25−3.04 · n=56 | 3.48−3.39 · n=56 | 4.20−4.10 · n=55 | 4.12−3.93 · n=54 | 4.08−3.81 · n=55 | 4.20−4.10 · n=56 | 4.53−4.01 · n=55 | 5.17−4.40 · n=55 | 5.91−5.09 · n=55 | 7.20−6.28 · n=55 | |
| KSEA | 2.07−0.54 · n=56 | 2.84−1.76 · n=56 | 3.01−1.79 · n=55 | 3.31−2.54 · n=54 | 3.25−2.22 · n=55 | 4.08−2.63 · n=56 | 4.56−2.28 · n=55 | 5.11−2.18 · n=55 | 5.11−2.48 · n=55 | — | |
| KSFO | 6.07−6.07 · n=56 | 5.58−5.55 · n=56 | 6.21−6.07 · n=55 | 5.78−5.64 · n=54 | 5.71−5.62 · n=55 | 5.20−5.03 · n=56 | 6.61−6.02 · n=55 | 6.37−6.06 · n=55 | 6.63−5.91 · n=55 | — | |
| KTTN | 1.26+0.37 · n=56 | 1.80+0.21 · n=56 | 2.13+0.36 · n=55 | 2.35−0.29 · n=54 | 2.64−0.02 · n=55 | 3.85−0.35 · n=56 | 4.00+0.91 · n=55 | 3.79+0.38 · n=55 | 5.21+0.93 · n=55 | 5.28+0.78 · n=55 |
Daily minimum vs NWS CLI
| Station | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATL | 1.68+0.71 · n=56 | 1.78+0.28 · n=56 | 1.86−0.04 · n=55 | 1.88+0.16 · n=54 | 1.77+0.20 · n=55 | 2.30+0.13 · n=56 | 2.22−0.01 · n=55 | 2.84−0.29 · n=55 | 3.11−0.23 · n=55 | 3.06+0.19 · n=55 | |
| KAUS | 4.93+4.90 · n=56 | 4.54+4.50 · n=56 | 4.13+4.06 · n=55 | 4.46+4.35 · n=54 | 3.99+3.91 · n=55 | 3.91+3.75 · n=56 | 4.34+4.16 · n=55 | 4.51+4.02 · n=55 | 4.80+3.40 · n=55 | 4.87+2.99 · n=55 | |
| KBOS | 2.04+1.10 · n=56 | 2.26+1.58 · n=55 | 2.67+2.38 · n=54 | 2.45+2.08 · n=53 | 2.45+2.07 · n=54 | 3.25+2.08 · n=56 | 3.61+2.62 · n=54 | 3.51+2.40 · n=55 | 4.07+2.68 · n=55 | 4.37+2.72 · n=54 | |
| KDCA | 1.47+0.36 · n=56 | 1.83+0.92 · n=56 | 2.10+1.40 · n=55 | 2.49+1.47 · n=54 | 2.66+1.10 · n=55 | 3.28+0.88 · n=56 | 3.97+0.69 · n=55 | 4.33+1.22 · n=55 | 4.80+1.33 · n=55 | 5.04+1.22 · n=55 | |
| KDEN | 2.40+0.61 · n=56 | 2.50−0.06 · n=56 | 2.76−0.52 · n=55 | 3.00−0.79 · n=54 | 2.71−0.16 · n=55 | 3.40−0.73 · n=56 | 3.26−1.52 · n=55 | 4.36−0.47 · n=55 | 4.79−1.28 · n=55 | — | |
| KDFW | 1.77+1.30 · n=56 | 1.24+0.38 · n=56 | 1.47−0.22 · n=55 | 1.66−0.25 · n=54 | 2.10−0.53 · n=55 | 2.56−1.15 · n=56 | 3.15−0.83 · n=55 | 3.80−1.25 · n=55 | 4.04−1.66 · n=55 | 4.74−2.48 · n=55 | |
| KEWR | 2.44+2.19 · n=56 | 2.28+1.71 · n=56 | 2.55+1.98 · n=55 | 2.66+1.68 · n=54 | 2.82+1.48 · n=55 | 3.22+1.33 · n=56 | 4.10+1.57 · n=55 | 3.55+1.51 · n=55 | 4.64+2.41 · n=55 | 5.11+1.98 · n=55 | |
| KIAH | 2.28+2.13 · n=56 | 2.08+1.67 · n=56 | 2.12+1.44 · n=55 | 2.16+1.16 · n=54 | 2.35+1.14 · n=55 | 2.63+1.45 · n=56 | 2.35+1.51 · n=55 | 2.80+1.31 · n=55 | 3.78+1.32 · n=55 | 3.58+0.74 · n=55 | |
| KLAS | 4.21−4.04 · n=56 | 3.61−3.43 · n=56 | 3.33−3.26 · n=55 | 3.27−2.60 · n=54 | 3.11−2.34 · n=55 | 3.58−2.19 · n=56 | 3.65−1.82 · n=55 | 4.29−1.61 · n=55 | 4.71−2.71 · n=55 | — | |
| KLAX | 1.55+0.08 · n=56 | 1.37−0.34 · n=56 | 1.73−1.19 · n=55 | 1.94−1.57 · n=54 | 2.31−1.86 · n=55 | 2.39−1.89 · n=56 | 2.76−1.64 · n=55 | 2.77−1.75 · n=55 | 3.44−2.51 · n=55 | — | |
| KMIA | 2.77+2.71 · n=56 | 2.19+1.96 · n=56 | 2.13+1.76 · n=55 | 1.93+1.48 · n=54 | 2.12+1.46 · n=55 | 2.22+1.34 · n=56 | 2.08+1.33 · n=55 | 2.32+1.32 · n=55 | 2.52+1.28 · n=55 | 2.39+1.26 · n=55 | |
| KMSP | 2.01−0.50 · n=56 | 1.89−0.07 · n=56 | 1.74−0.42 · n=55 | 2.16+0.02 · n=54 | 2.89+0.02 · n=55 | 3.83−0.22 · n=56 | 4.06−1.28 · n=55 | 4.57−0.18 · n=55 | 5.50−0.44 · n=55 | 4.86−0.87 · n=55 | |
| KMSY | 2.48+2.07 · n=56 | 2.57+2.22 · n=56 | 2.11+1.88 · n=55 | 2.46+1.94 · n=54 | 2.18+1.61 · n=55 | 2.51+1.74 · n=56 | 2.85+1.97 · n=55 | 3.05+1.93 · n=55 | 3.77+1.94 · n=55 | 3.61+2.11 · n=55 | |
| KNYC | 2.27+1.86 · n=56 | 2.47+1.74 · n=56 | 2.67+2.16 · n=55 | 2.42+1.83 · n=54 | 2.58+1.42 · n=55 | 3.14+1.38 · n=56 | 3.54+1.37 · n=55 | 3.55+1.51 · n=55 | 4.73+2.05 · n=55 | 4.62+1.81 · n=55 | |
| KOKC | 4.35+4.28 · n=56 | 3.81+3.44 · n=56 | 3.36+2.85 · n=55 | 3.29+2.53 · n=54 | 3.32+2.38 · n=55 | 3.71+2.22 · n=56 | 4.34+2.27 · n=55 | 4.51+0.74 · n=55 | 5.01+0.76 · n=55 | 5.43+0.68 · n=55 | |
| KORD | 2.61+2.24 · n=56 | 2.94+2.69 · n=56 | 3.51+3.23 · n=55 | 3.31+2.96 · n=54 | 3.37+2.69 · n=55 | 3.89+2.95 · n=56 | 4.10+3.16 · n=55 | 4.54+2.50 · n=55 | 5.04+3.07 · n=55 | 5.62+3.58 · n=55 | |
| KPHL | 1.51+0.17 · n=56 | 1.76+0.73 · n=56 | 2.06+0.97 · n=55 | 2.45+0.92 · n=54 | 2.57+0.40 · n=55 | 3.44+0.38 · n=56 | 4.13+0.22 · n=55 | 3.78+0.37 · n=55 | 4.58+1.11 · n=55 | 5.27+0.73 · n=55 | |
| KPHX | 3.36−2.15 · n=56 | 3.71−1.55 · n=56 | 3.86−1.83 · n=55 | 3.46−1.16 · n=54 | 3.49−1.14 · n=55 | 3.64−0.90 · n=56 | 3.44−0.76 · n=55 | 3.93−1.49 · n=55 | 4.49−2.18 · n=55 | — | |
| KSAN | 2.03+0.58 · n=56 | 2.13+0.43 · n=56 | 2.05+0.07 · n=55 | 2.48−0.33 · n=54 | 2.63−0.32 · n=55 | 2.69−0.45 · n=56 | 2.84−0.71 · n=55 | 2.93−0.72 · n=55 | 3.02−1.20 · n=55 | — | |
| KSAT | 1.42+0.77 · n=56 | 1.60+0.72 · n=56 | 1.43−0.01 · n=55 | 1.75+0.28 · n=54 | 1.86−0.06 · n=55 | 2.16−0.02 · n=56 | 2.60+0.07 · n=55 | 2.55+0.21 · n=55 | 3.05−0.40 · n=55 | 3.42−0.49 · n=55 | |
| KSEA | 2.73+2.58 · n=56 | 2.42+2.36 · n=56 | 2.48+2.25 · n=55 | 2.77+2.59 · n=54 | 2.34+2.04 · n=55 | 2.75+2.07 · n=56 | 3.12+2.12 · n=55 | 3.04+2.48 · n=55 | 3.52+2.02 · n=55 | — | |
| KSFO | 1.60+0.77 · n=56 | 1.76+0.52 · n=56 | 1.49+0.36 · n=55 | 1.70+0.15 · n=54 | 1.70+0.18 · n=55 | 1.96+0.10 · n=56 | 2.14−0.10 · n=55 | 2.26−0.12 · n=55 | 2.28−0.24 · n=55 | — | |
| KTTN | 4.49+4.46 · n=56 | 4.52+4.47 · n=56 | 4.99+4.92 · n=55 | 4.85+4.67 · n=54 | 4.95+4.61 · n=55 | 5.06+4.33 · n=56 | 5.45+4.57 · n=55 | 5.37+4.51 · n=55 | 6.49+5.37 · n=55 | 6.67+4.88 · n=55 |
Month by month
MAE °F at lead day 1, 00Z, bilinear, instantaneous temperature, per station.
| Month | KATL | KAUS | KBOS | KDCA | KDEN | KDFW | KEWR | KIAH | KLAS | KLAX | KMIA | KMSP | KMSY | KNYC | KOKC | KORD | KPHL | KPHX | KSAN | KSAT | KSEA | KSFO | KTTN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 2.98-1.35 · n=68 | 3.13+0.54 · n=68 | 2.16-0.26 · n=67 | 2.04+0.08 · n=68 | 3.94-2.95 · n=68 | 2.66-2.09 · n=68 | 2.25-0.61 · n=68 | 2.37-1.22 · n=68 | 4.73-4.65 · n=68 | 3.57-3.08 · n=68 | 1.81-1.33 · n=68 | 2.96-2.29 · n=68 | 2.24-1.40 · n=68 | 2.70+0.36 · n=67 | 2.44+0.14 · n=68 | 1.78-0.11 · n=68 | 2.48-0.85 · n=68 | 4.10-3.00 · n=68 | 3.61-2.25 · n=68 | 2.27-0.62 · n=68 | 2.23+0.39 · n=68 | 3.66-1.97 · n=68 | 2.44+1.90 · n=68 |
| 2026-09 | 3.18-1.24 · n=80 | 2.75-0.19 · n=80 | 2.27-0.51 · n=80 | 2.60-0.98 · n=80 | 3.80-2.41 · n=80 | 2.14-1.38 · n=80 | 2.52-1.43 · n=80 | 2.07-0.18 · n=80 | 4.91-4.89 · n=80 | 2.22-1.53 · n=80 | 2.10-0.44 · n=80 | 2.85-1.68 · n=80 | 1.83-0.20 · n=80 | 2.46+0.18 · n=80 | 3.24-1.13 · n=80 | 2.24-0.46 · n=80 | 2.80-2.31 · n=80 | 4.48-2.78 · n=80 | 2.82-2.77 · n=80 | 2.54-0.50 · n=80 | 1.93+0.46 · n=80 | 2.52-1.48 · n=80 | 2.10+0.34 · n=79 |
| 2026-08 | 3.46-1.32 · n=76 | 2.74+1.87 · n=76 | 2.95-1.80 · n=72 | 2.62-1.45 · n=76 | 4.31-2.06 · n=76 | 2.07+0.29 · n=76 | 2.66-0.80 · n=76 | 2.14+0.77 · n=76 | 6.28-6.07 · n=76 | 1.35+0.42 · n=76 | 2.04-1.17 · n=76 | 2.80-1.21 · n=76 | 2.19-0.03 · n=76 | 2.71+1.02 · n=76 | 3.55+1.22 · n=76 | 1.90-0.14 · n=76 | 2.71-1.28 · n=76 | 4.81-3.21 · n=76 | 2.61-2.51 · n=76 | 2.08+0.60 · n=76 | 2.41+1.25 · n=76 | 2.07+0.02 · n=76 | 3.01+1.84 · n=76 |
| 2026-07 | 2.82-1.42 · n=48 | 3.00+1.72 · n=48 | 3.54-2.75 · n=46 | 2.73-1.74 · n=48 | 3.49-1.98 · n=47 | 1.86-0.88 · n=48 | 3.31-1.72 · n=48 | 2.05+0.48 · n=48 | 6.66-6.66 · n=48 | 1.78+0.29 · n=48 | 2.53-1.03 · n=48 | 3.14-1.77 · n=48 | 1.80-0.08 · n=48 | 2.49+0.05 · n=48 | 3.49+2.58 · n=48 | 2.70-0.11 · n=48 | 2.97-2.17 · n=48 | 4.55-3.21 · n=48 | 2.27-2.03 · n=48 | 2.22+0.63 · n=48 | 2.45-0.24 · n=48 | 1.71-0.85 · n=48 | 2.54+0.40 · n=48 |
| 2026-06 | 3.31-2.49 · n=64 | 2.28-0.49 · n=64 | 3.77-2.57 · n=64 | 3.37-2.32 · n=64 | 5.18-2.68 · n=64 | 2.43-0.62 · n=64 | 3.79-3.19 · n=64 | 2.04+0.64 · n=64 | 5.83-5.83 · n=63 | 1.97-1.03 · n=63 | 2.08-1.09 · n=63 | 3.32-2.91 · n=64 | 1.63-0.51 · n=64 | 2.72-0.50 · n=64 | 3.37-0.62 · n=64 | 3.09-2.09 · n=64 | 3.65-2.67 · n=64 | 4.02-3.50 · n=64 | 3.17-3.07 · n=64 | 1.99-0.62 · n=64 | 2.17-1.00 · n=64 | 2.05-1.08 · n=64 | 2.69-0.48 · n=64 |
| 2026-05 | 3.18-2.93 · n=75 | 3.54+0.80 · n=74 | 3.84-3.29 · n=75 | 2.34-1.76 · n=75 | 3.62-1.73 · n=75 | 3.18-0.85 · n=74 | 4.41-4.22 · n=75 | 2.75-0.38 · n=75 | 5.65-5.57 · n=75 | 2.49-1.67 · n=75 | 2.43-2.13 · n=73 | 3.51-2.69 · n=76 | 2.80-0.78 · n=74 | 2.96-2.24 · n=76 | 2.99-0.14 · n=75 | 3.74-3.02 · n=75 | 3.09-2.51 · n=75 | 4.22-3.75 · n=75 | 3.04-3.00 · n=75 | 3.33-0.17 · n=76 | 2.92+0.26 · n=75 | 2.27-1.48 · n=75 | 2.17-0.51 · n=75 |
| 2026-04 | 4.09-3.80 · n=96 | 2.76-0.80 · n=96 | 3.31-2.08 · n=96 | 3.55-2.10 · n=96 | 3.96-1.97 · n=96 | 2.45-1.29 · n=95 | 3.75-2.25 · n=96 | 1.85-0.69 · n=96 | 5.15-5.10 · n=96 | 2.39-1.96 · n=96 | 1.64-1.22 · n=96 | 3.34-2.84 · n=96 | 2.31-1.49 · n=96 | 3.28-1.68 · n=96 | 2.48-0.28 · n=96 | 3.87-2.23 · n=96 | 3.57-1.72 · n=96 | 4.55-4.46 · n=96 | 2.71-2.18 · n=96 | 2.93-1.10 · n=96 | 2.27-0.95 · n=96 | 2.51-1.85 · n=96 | 2.98+0.45 · n=96 |
| 2026-03 | 3.84-3.04 · n=124 | 3.25-1.53 · n=124 | 2.89-1.92 · n=120 | 3.65-1.71 · n=124 | 4.99-2.81 · n=124 | 3.03-1.56 · n=124 | 3.69-2.65 · n=124 | 2.20-1.08 · n=124 | 4.62-4.23 · n=124 | 3.08-0.52 · n=124 | 1.74-0.60 · n=124 | 4.50-3.57 · n=124 | 2.29-1.24 · n=124 | 3.71-2.28 · n=124 | 3.38-1.19 · n=124 | 4.16-3.21 · n=124 | 3.20-1.56 · n=124 | 4.84-4.03 · n=124 | 2.79-0.77 · n=123 | 3.35-2.14 · n=124 | 2.05+1.05 · n=124 | 3.91-2.55 · n=124 | 3.08-0.13 · n=122 |
| 2026-02 | 3.49-2.92 · n=111 | 3.75-0.70 · n=112 | 3.29-1.77 · n=112 | 3.54-1.36 · n=112 | 5.41-3.98 · n=112 | 3.07-1.58 · n=111 | 3.29-2.26 · n=110 | 3.06-1.77 · n=112 | 3.79-3.29 · n=112 | 2.44-1.32 · n=112 | 1.92+0.40 · n=111 | 4.38-3.34 · n=112 | 2.54-1.34 · n=112 | 3.52-1.88 · n=112 | 3.15-1.24 · n=111 | 3.29-2.23 · n=112 | 3.30-2.03 · n=112 | 4.34-3.71 · n=112 | 2.70-0.37 · n=112 | 3.55-2.31 · n=112 | 2.03-0.20 · n=112 | 2.35-0.57 · n=112 | 2.89+0.38 · n=110 |
| 2026-01 | 3.15-2.23 · n=120 | 3.37-1.87 · n=120 | 2.11-0.25 · n=118 | 3.40-1.48 · n=119 | 5.36-4.21 · n=120 | 3.20-2.52 · n=120 | 2.81-1.96 · n=120 | 2.65-2.09 · n=120 | 2.99-2.49 · n=120 | 3.03-2.05 · n=120 | 1.86-0.08 · n=120 | 4.94-4.82 · n=120 | 2.70-1.71 · n=120 | 2.89-1.42 · n=119 | 2.94-1.67 · n=120 | 2.73-1.48 · n=120 | 3.37-2.18 · n=120 | 4.59-4.39 · n=120 | 3.43+1.24 · n=120 | 3.60-2.58 · n=120 | 2.20-0.21 · n=120 | 2.16-0.75 · n=120 | 2.71+0.75 · n=120 |
Source and licence
Where the numbers come from, what may be done with them, and what was — deliberately — not done to the forecast before scoring it.
Where it comes from
aiwp · PANG · GFS initial conditions
Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.
Licence
NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.
Post-processing
None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.