Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Pangu-Weather (GFS init) (pangu_gfs)

source aiwp · product PANG · initial conditions from GFS · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC.

Scores use the latest model version segment, PANG_v100, starting 2026-08-28. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F by station

the last 90 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL 2.71-2.71 · n=2 3.82-3.82 · n=1 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KAUS 5.82-5.82 · n=2 6.56-6.56 · n=1 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KBOS 2.34-1.63 · n=2 2.71-2.71 · n=1 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDCA 1.69-1.69 · n=2 2.71-2.71 · n=1 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDEN 5.12-5.12 · n=2 0.85-0.85 · n=1 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDFW 4.24-4.24 · n=2 4.66-4.66 · n=1 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KEWR 1.54+0.72 · n=2 0.96+0.96 · n=1 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KIAH 2.65-2.65 · n=2 3.43-3.43 · n=1 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAS 5.64-5.64 · n=2 5.57-5.57 · n=1 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAX 1.87-1.87 · n=2 2.73-2.73 · n=1 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMIA 5.94-5.94 · n=2 6.01-6.01 · n=1 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSP 6.57-6.57 · n=2 2.74-2.74 · n=1 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSY 4.19-4.19 · n=2 3.69-3.69 · n=1 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KNYC 3.94+3.94 · n=2 3.84+3.84 · n=1 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KOKC 6.06-6.06 · n=2 6.10-6.10 · n=1 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KORD 1.45-0.89 · n=2 0.41-0.41 · n=1 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHL 1.13-1.13 · n=2 3.43-3.43 · n=1 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHX 7.83-7.83 · n=2 9.73-9.73 · n=1 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAN 6.63-6.63 · n=2 5.67-5.67 · n=1 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAT 4.07-4.07 · n=2 4.18-4.18 · n=1 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSEA 4.56-4.56 · n=2 2.70-2.70 · n=1 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSFO 4.94-4.94 · n=2 4.51-4.51 · n=1 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KTTN 2.76+2.76 · n=2 1.29+1.29 · n=1 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F by station

the last 90 days, 12Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL 1.38-1.38 · n=2 0.23-0.23 · n=1 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KAUS 5.29+5.29 · n=2 4.24+4.24 · n=1 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KBOS 2.16-1.67 · n=2 3.81-3.81 · n=1 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDCA 1.14-0.14 · n=2 0.32-0.32 · n=1 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDEN 4.10+4.10 · n=2 2.77+2.77 · n=1 KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDFW 1.93+1.93 · n=2 0.27-0.27 · n=1 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KEWR 1.25+1.25 · n=2 1.03+1.03 · n=1 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KIAH 2.26+2.26 · n=2 1.35+1.35 · n=1 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAS 4.87-4.87 · n=2 5.91-5.91 · n=1 KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAX 1.18-0.04 · n=2 2.12-2.12 · n=1 KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMIA 2.71+1.46 · n=2 1.01-1.01 · n=1 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSP 1.92-0.43 · n=2 1.52-1.52 · n=1 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSY 1.83-1.38 · n=2 4.71-4.71 · n=1 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KNYC 2.61-0.53 · n=2 2.16-2.16 · n=1 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KOKC 3.88+3.88 · n=2 2.39+2.39 · n=1 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KORD 3.49+3.49 · n=2 1.41+1.41 · n=1 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHL 1.91+1.91 · n=2 2.63+2.63 · n=1 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHX 0.77-0.41 · n=2 2.58-2.58 · n=1 KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAN 2.40-2.40 · n=2 4.41-4.41 · n=1 KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAT 2.00+0.02 · n=2 2.05-2.05 · n=1 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSEA 1.51+0.93 · n=2 1.59+1.59 · n=1 KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSFO 1.10-1.10 · n=2 2.20-2.20 · n=1 KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KTTN 6.45+6.45 · n=2 7.93+7.93 · n=1 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

Month-by-month slices live on the canonical page: they do not depend on the window, initialization or interpolation selected here.

Source and licence

Where it comes from

aiwp · PANG · GFS initial conditions

Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

NOAA/CIRA AIWP, U.S. Government work, public domain. Cite Radford et al. (2025), BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0057.1.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.

All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences