Station
KMSP — Minneapolis-St Paul
44.8831, -93.2289 · 256 m · standard offset UTC-6 h · truth product CLIMSP
Instantaneous temperature — MAE °Ft2
Scored against the observed 2 m temperature at the same instant (ASOS routine METAR). This is the headline variable: the same four instants on the forecast and the observation side. These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 2.35−1.34 · n=88 | 2.55−1.58 · n=87 | 2.82−1.68 · n=86 | 3.02−1.60 · n=85 | 3.13−1.74 · n=84 | 3.57−1.76 · n=83 | 4.30−2.02 · n=82 | 4.78−2.33 · n=81 | 5.08−1.66 · n=80 | 5.88−2.16 · n=79 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 1.99−1.29 · n=56 | 2.57−1.88 · n=56 | 3.06−2.44 · n=55 | 3.53−3.04 · n=54 | 4.35−3.23 · n=55 | 5.47−4.42 · n=56 | 5.90−4.96 · n=55 | 6.51−5.12 · n=55 | 6.38−4.47 · n=55 | 6.65−5.08 · n=55 | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 2.45−1.90 · n=82 | 2.70−1.99 · n=82 | 3.02−1.99 · n=82 | 3.27−1.92 · n=82 | 3.37−1.80 · n=81 | 3.71−1.78 · n=81 | 4.15−1.71 · n=81 | 4.81−1.61 · n=81 | 4.93−1.78 · n=81 | 5.19−2.10 · n=81 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 2.93−2.18 · n=56 | 3.01−2.20 · n=56 | 3.26−2.45 · n=55 | 3.76−2.87 · n=54 | 3.92−2.51 · n=55 | 4.85−2.87 · n=56 | 4.88−3.06 · n=55 | 5.50−2.78 · n=55 | 5.63−1.54 · n=55 | 6.31−2.11 · n=55 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 3.09−2.47 · n=87 | 3.22−2.34 · n=87 | 3.28−2.29 · n=87 | 3.44−2.28 · n=87 | 3.87−2.24 · n=87 | 4.33−2.35 · n=87 | 4.77−2.36 · n=87 | 5.16−2.22 · n=87 | 5.56−2.40 · n=87 | 5.87−2.43 · n=87 | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 2.74+0.20 · n=88 | 3.11+0.70 · n=87 | 3.28+0.84 · n=86 | 3.56+0.73 · n=85 | 3.89−0.03 · n=84 | 4.81−0.73 · n=83 | 5.31−1.58 · n=82 | 6.17−1.76 · n=81 | 7.14−2.19 · n=80 | 7.55−2.53 · n=79 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 2.06−1.33 · n=56 | 2.61−1.69 · n=56 | 3.05−1.99 · n=55 | 3.13−2.28 · n=54 | 3.59−2.29 · n=55 | 4.60−2.96 · n=56 | 4.74−2.68 · n=55 | 5.25−2.50 · n=55 | 5.39−2.28 · n=55 | 6.69−2.55 · n=55 | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 2.58−2.01 · n=86 | 2.96−2.37 · n=86 | 3.21−2.34 · n=86 | 3.41−2.15 · n=86 | 3.47−1.93 · n=86 | 3.99−2.18 · n=86 | 4.77−2.77 · n=86 | 5.32−2.66 · n=86 | 5.54−2.56 · n=86 | 6.10−3.01 · n=86 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 1.93−0.66 · n=88 | 2.32−0.61 · n=87 | 2.60−0.55 · n=86 | 2.93−0.39 · n=85 | 2.95−0.33 · n=84 | 3.60−0.25 · n=83 | 4.14−0.41 · n=82 | 4.43−0.30 · n=81 | 5.12−0.67 · n=80 | 5.30−0.43 · n=79 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 2.54−1.45 · n=56 | 2.87−1.71 · n=56 | 3.25−2.14 · n=55 | 3.50−2.25 · n=54 | 4.20−2.27 · n=55 | 5.04−2.69 · n=56 | 5.36−2.99 · n=55 | 5.80−2.52 · n=55 | 6.52−2.28 · n=55 | 7.39−3.80 · n=55 | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 2.86−1.87 · n=84 | 3.51−2.56 · n=84 | 3.91−2.79 · n=84 | 3.96−2.85 · n=84 | 4.25−2.67 · n=84 | 4.58−2.91 · n=84 | 5.17−2.78 · n=84 | 6.00−2.61 · n=84 | 7.36−2.96 · n=84 | 7.21−3.84 · n=84 | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 4.61+0.37 · n=89 | 6.05+0.78 · n=89 | 6.50+1.09 · n=89 | 6.81+1.35 · n=89 | 7.12+1.57 · n=89 | 7.38+1.75 · n=89 | 7.63+1.89 · n=89 | 7.69+2.04 · n=89 | 7.67+2.18 · n=89 |
+ model too warm − model too cold bias interval includes zero ★ lowest MAE among ranked models (n ≥ 30) = not distinguishable from the leader ▼ worse than the leader ▲ better than the leader — all three Holm-corrected within this table, over the family of comparisons against the leader; the uncorrected verdict for every pair is published in the pairwise table of each permanent link and in pairwise_latest.csv.gzn < 30 greyed and unranked CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval on the group's own days, and reads — when it could not be computed skill reads — when fewer than 10 days are common to the model and the baseline: the ratio of two means over a handful of shared days is not a number worth printing
Sampled daily maximum — MAE °Ftmax_s
Scored against the maximum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 1.62−0.32 · n=88 | 1.82−0.69 · n=87 | 2.06−0.75 · n=86 | 2.41−0.85 · n=85 | 2.66−0.97 · n=84 | 3.14−0.98 · n=83 | 3.80−1.53 · n=82 | 4.21−1.67 · n=81 | 4.83−1.08 · n=80 | 5.87−1.90 · n=79 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 2.30−2.16 · n=56 | 3.33−3.00 · n=56 | 3.86−3.57 · n=55 | 4.26−4.03 · n=54 | 5.46−4.48 · n=55 | 6.60−5.85 · n=56 | 6.93−6.07 · n=55 | 6.76−5.62 · n=55 | 7.06−5.41 · n=55 | 7.81−6.33 · n=55 | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 2.64−2.36 · n=82 | 3.04−2.60 · n=82 | 3.30−2.50 · n=82 | 3.58−2.41 · n=82 | 3.71−2.20 · n=81 | 3.83−2.11 · n=81 | 4.45−1.98 · n=81 | 4.99−1.75 · n=81 | 4.92−1.95 · n=81 | 5.39−2.34 · n=81 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 2.39−1.82 · n=56 | 2.66−2.14 · n=56 | 3.09−2.22 · n=55 | 3.59−2.69 · n=54 | 4.14−2.69 · n=55 | 4.85−2.79 · n=56 | 4.74−2.70 · n=55 | 5.23−1.95 · n=55 | 5.64−1.15 · n=55 | 5.95−1.79 · n=55 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 2.58−2.09 · n=87 | 2.85−2.06 · n=87 | 2.96−2.19 · n=87 | 3.16−2.12 · n=87 | 3.82−2.14 · n=87 | 4.35−2.28 · n=87 | 4.70−2.15 · n=87 | 4.82−1.78 · n=87 | 5.13−2.09 · n=87 | 5.42−2.07 · n=87 | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 2.54+1.60 · n=88 | 3.36+2.07 · n=87 | 3.61+2.25 · n=86 | 3.85+1.89 · n=85 | 4.14+0.90 · n=84 | 4.90+0.32 · n=83 | 5.62−0.79 · n=82 | 6.63−0.95 · n=81 | 7.45−1.09 · n=80 | 7.66−1.11 · n=79 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 2.41−2.34 · n=56 | 3.31−2.86 · n=56 | 3.85−3.01 · n=55 | 3.61−3.25 · n=54 | 4.32−3.16 · n=55 | 5.30−4.05 · n=56 | 5.15−3.27 · n=55 | 4.98−2.54 · n=55 | 5.81−3.11 · n=55 | 6.96−3.59 · n=55 | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 2.61−2.30 · n=86 | 3.23−2.91 · n=86 | 3.32−2.64 · n=86 | 3.47−2.51 · n=86 | 3.45−2.09 · n=86 | 3.90−2.26 · n=86 | 4.98−2.94 · n=86 | 5.06−2.53 · n=86 | 5.25−2.62 · n=86 | 5.94−3.03 · n=86 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 1.76−0.55 · n=88 | 2.34−0.49 · n=87 | 2.49−0.44 · n=86 | 2.85−0.42 · n=85 | 2.94−0.37 · n=84 | 3.72−0.16 · n=83 | 4.18−0.60 · n=82 | 4.36−0.26 · n=81 | 5.16−0.55 · n=80 | 5.50−0.24 · n=79 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 1.55−0.43 · n=56 | 2.00−0.40 · n=56 | 2.14−0.59 · n=55 | 2.22−0.55 · n=54 | 3.22−0.68 · n=55 | 3.65−1.30 · n=56 | 4.09−0.96 · n=55 | 5.46−0.42 · n=55 | 5.80−0.17 · n=55 | 7.42−2.49 · n=55 | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 2.02−0.61 · n=84 | 2.29−0.92 · n=84 | 2.84−1.06 · n=84 | 2.55−1.27 · n=84 | 3.12−0.89 · n=84 | 3.31−1.27 · n=84 | 4.19−0.66 · n=84 | 4.95−0.81 · n=84 | 5.98−0.74 · n=84 | 6.34−1.71 · n=84 | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 3.97+0.37 · n=89 | 5.45+0.82 · n=89 | 6.29+1.19 · n=89 | 6.93+1.45 · n=89 | 7.49+1.70 · n=89 | 7.38+1.85 · n=89 | 7.66+1.96 · n=89 | 7.72+2.10 · n=89 | 7.82+2.23 · n=89 |
Sampled daily minimum — MAE °Ftmin_s
Scored against the minimum of the four *observed* samples on the same day.
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 2.56−2.32 · n=88 | 2.89−2.56 · n=87 | 2.96−2.54 · n=86 | 2.98−2.28 · n=85 | 2.97−2.31 · n=84 | 3.50−2.34 · n=83 | 4.39−2.54 · n=82 | 4.97−2.81 · n=81 | 4.99−1.98 · n=80 | 5.82−2.29 · n=79 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 1.33−0.30 · n=56 | 1.46−0.49 · n=56 | 1.80−0.97 · n=55 | 2.34−1.75 · n=54 | 2.84−1.76 · n=55 | 4.10−2.88 · n=56 | 4.71−3.68 · n=55 | 5.77−4.28 · n=55 | 5.12−3.04 · n=55 | 5.53−3.42 · n=55 | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 1.57−1.06 · n=82 | 1.72−1.05 · n=82 | 1.97−1.13 · n=82 | 2.23−1.13 · n=82 | 2.35−0.96 · n=81 | 2.92−1.03 · n=81 | 3.35−1.02 · n=81 | 4.18−0.92 · n=81 | 4.38−1.19 · n=81 | 4.52−1.34 · n=81 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 3.13−2.83 · n=56 | 2.72−2.23 · n=56 | 2.85−2.37 · n=55 | 3.31−3.05 · n=54 | 3.32−2.56 · n=55 | 4.62−3.02 · n=56 | 4.75−3.79 · n=55 | 5.19−3.62 · n=55 | 5.38−1.86 · n=55 | 6.22−2.44 · n=55 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 3.02−2.76 · n=87 | 2.98−2.65 · n=87 | 2.84−2.38 · n=87 | 3.05−2.46 · n=87 | 3.37−2.36 · n=87 | 3.76−2.34 · n=87 | 4.53−2.58 · n=87 | 5.00−2.61 · n=87 | 5.53−2.61 · n=87 | 5.79−2.67 · n=87 | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 2.31−0.79 · n=88 | 2.39−0.37 · n=87 | 2.50−0.21 · n=86 | 2.65+0.05 · n=85 | 3.29−0.41 · n=84 | 4.14−1.05 · n=83 | 4.55−2.00 · n=82 | 5.45−1.95 · n=81 | 6.46−3.12 · n=80 | 7.04−3.30 · n=79 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 1.40−0.26 · n=56 | 1.55−0.21 · n=56 | 1.80−0.47 · n=55 | 2.06−0.81 · n=54 | 2.43−1.01 · n=55 | 3.92−1.59 · n=56 | 3.97−1.78 · n=55 | 4.90−1.79 · n=55 | 4.68−0.90 · n=55 | 6.06−1.17 · n=55 | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 1.79−1.34 · n=86 | 1.97−1.48 · n=86 | 2.20−1.51 · n=86 | 2.55−1.36 · n=86 | 2.51−1.11 · n=86 | 3.26−1.34 · n=86 | 4.02−1.94 · n=86 | 4.93−2.21 · n=86 | 5.39−1.76 · n=86 | 5.86−2.48 · n=86 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 1.30−0.54 · n=88 | 1.50−0.63 · n=87 | 1.72−0.45 · n=86 | 2.05−0.21 · n=85 | 2.13+0.01 · n=84 | 2.93−0.33 · n=83 | 3.59−0.16 · n=82 | 3.92−0.25 · n=81 | 4.93−0.48 · n=80 | 5.01−0.23 · n=79 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 2.36−1.96 · n=56 | 2.06−1.57 · n=56 | 2.36−1.60 · n=55 | 2.29−1.64 · n=54 | 3.16−1.53 · n=55 | 4.20−1.60 · n=56 | 4.35−2.55 · n=55 | 4.59−1.80 · n=55 | 5.79−1.44 · n=55 | 5.52−2.51 · n=55 | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 2.04−1.64 · n=84 | 2.84−2.54 · n=84 | 2.94−2.53 · n=84 | 3.09−2.35 · n=84 | 3.15−2.14 · n=84 | 3.55−2.08 · n=84 | 4.39−2.42 · n=84 | 5.23−1.82 · n=84 | 7.26−2.55 · n=84 | 6.76−3.16 · n=84 | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 4.28+0.35 · n=89 | 5.88+0.68 · n=89 | 6.04+0.94 · n=89 | 6.13+1.21 · n=89 | 6.75+1.40 · n=89 | 7.01+1.64 · n=89 | 7.27+1.85 · n=89 | 7.38+2.01 · n=89 | 7.18+2.19 · n=89 |
Against the NWS daily extremes (secondary)
This comparison scores four 6-hourly forecast samples against the true daily extreme, so it includes a sampling penalty. The size of that penalty depends on each model's own diurnal amplitude, which is one of the things this site measures, so these numbers are published for operational relevance and are never used for ranking.
Daily maximum vs NWS CLI
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 3.23−3.10 · n=88 | 3.60−3.48 · n=87 | 3.81−3.55 · n=86 | 4.01−3.66 · n=85 | 4.44−3.80 · n=84 | 4.82−3.83 · n=83 | 5.65−4.39 · n=82 | 5.93−4.51 · n=81 | 6.24−3.93 · n=80 | 7.35−4.75 · n=79 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 4.91−4.91 · n=56 | 5.94−5.91 · n=56 | 6.58−6.46 · n=55 | 6.84−6.69 · n=54 | 7.88−7.32 · n=55 | 9.00−8.49 · n=56 | 9.37−8.79 · n=55 | 9.03−8.41 · n=55 | 9.20−7.99 · n=55 | 10.08−9.20 · n=55 | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 5.18−5.13 · n=82 | 5.38−5.34 · n=82 | 5.60−5.20 · n=82 | 5.72−5.12 · n=82 | 5.80−4.94 · n=81 | 5.92−4.86 · n=81 | 6.37−4.66 · n=81 | 6.73−4.49 · n=81 | 6.54−4.69 · n=81 | 6.90−5.20 · n=81 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 4.68−4.57 · n=56 | 5.17−5.05 · n=56 | 5.50−5.11 · n=55 | 5.95−5.36 · n=54 | 6.33−5.53 · n=55 | 6.73−5.43 · n=56 | 6.60−5.43 · n=55 | 6.57−4.73 · n=55 | 6.45−3.73 · n=55 | 7.38−4.66 · n=55 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 5.00−4.87 · n=87 | 5.14−4.81 · n=87 | 5.26−4.93 · n=87 | 5.35−4.89 · n=87 | 5.71−4.87 · n=87 | 6.20−5.10 · n=87 | 6.51−4.90 · n=87 | 6.30−4.56 · n=87 | 6.62−4.82 · n=87 | 6.63−4.84 · n=87 | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 2.90−1.19 · n=88 | 3.49−0.72 · n=87 | 3.75−0.56 · n=86 | 3.99−0.93 · n=85 | 4.84−1.94 · n=84 | 5.82−2.53 · n=83 | 6.66−3.66 · n=82 | 7.65−3.79 · n=81 | 8.54−3.94 · n=80 | 8.44−3.96 · n=79 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 5.09−5.09 · n=56 | 5.82−5.77 · n=56 | 6.23−5.90 · n=55 | 6.19−5.92 · n=54 | 6.50−5.99 · n=55 | 7.52−6.69 · n=56 | 7.04−5.99 · n=55 | 6.42−5.32 · n=55 | 7.38−5.69 · n=55 | 8.69−6.46 · n=55 | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 5.10−5.05 · n=86 | 5.66−5.63 · n=86 | 5.54−5.37 · n=86 | 5.59−5.19 · n=86 | 5.45−4.83 · n=86 | 5.92−5.03 · n=86 | 6.87−5.70 · n=86 | 6.57−5.35 · n=86 | 6.82−5.39 · n=86 | 7.50−5.73 · n=86 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 3.60−3.34 · n=88 | 4.07−3.28 · n=87 | 4.11−3.24 · n=86 | 4.40−3.23 · n=85 | 4.61−3.21 · n=84 | 5.05−3.02 · n=83 | 5.74−3.46 · n=82 | 5.70−3.10 · n=81 | 6.55−3.40 · n=80 | 6.41−3.09 · n=79 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 3.22−3.18 · n=56 | 3.61−3.31 · n=56 | 4.11−3.48 · n=55 | 3.90−3.22 · n=54 | 4.80−3.51 · n=55 | 5.51−3.94 · n=56 | 5.47−3.68 · n=55 | 6.32−3.20 · n=55 | 6.35−2.75 · n=55 | 8.81−5.36 · n=55 | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 3.60−3.38 · n=84 | 3.95−3.64 · n=84 | 4.37−3.80 · n=84 | 4.30−4.02 · n=84 | 4.59−3.64 · n=84 | 4.90−4.08 · n=84 | 5.53−3.40 · n=84 | 6.49−3.57 · n=84 | 7.12−3.46 · n=84 | 7.31−4.49 · n=84 | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 4.63+0.31 · n=89 | 6.07+0.79 · n=89 | 6.96+1.18 · n=89 | 7.64+1.46 · n=89 | 8.10+1.72 · n=89 | 8.13+1.84 · n=89 | 8.46+1.94 · n=89 | 8.60+2.08 · n=89 | 8.49+2.18 · n=89 |
Daily minimum vs NWS CLI
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Singleaifs_single | 2.44−0.84 · n=88 | 2.65−1.08 · n=87 | 2.68−1.05 · n=86 | 2.72−0.79 · n=85 | 2.67−0.80 · n=84 | 3.11−0.81 · n=83 | 4.00−1.00 · n=82 | 4.60−1.32 · n=81 | 4.60−0.47 · n=80 | 5.26−0.77 · n=79 | |
| Aurora (GFS init)aurora_gfs | 1.77+1.16 · n=56 | 1.75+1.01 · n=56 | 1.57+0.21 · n=55 | 2.13−0.08 · n=54 | 2.69−0.22 · n=55 | 3.72−1.50 · n=56 | 4.32−2.41 · n=55 | 5.17−2.66 · n=55 | 4.60−2.04 · n=55 | 4.51−1.79 · n=55 | |
| Aurora (IFS init)aurora_ifs | 1.63+0.41 · n=82 | 1.76+0.34 · n=82 | 1.86+0.29 · n=82 | 2.25+0.40 · n=82 | 2.45+0.60 · n=81 | 2.70+0.35 · n=81 | 3.54+0.51 · n=81 | 4.04+0.51 · n=81 | 4.29+0.30 · n=81 | 4.09+0.18 · n=81 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init)fourcastnet_gfs | 2.45−1.36 · n=56 | 1.88−0.73 · n=56 | 2.07−1.19 · n=55 | 2.26−1.38 · n=54 | 2.83−1.01 · n=55 | 3.80−1.65 · n=56 | 4.29−2.52 · n=55 | 4.58−2.00 · n=55 | 5.05−0.86 · n=55 | 5.37−0.80 · n=55 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init)fourcastnet_ifs | 2.32−1.25 · n=87 | 2.22−1.14 · n=87 | 2.04−0.88 · n=87 | 2.23−0.95 · n=87 | 2.76−0.86 · n=87 | 3.15−0.84 · n=87 | 4.09−1.06 · n=87 | 4.65−1.13 · n=87 | 4.79−1.09 · n=87 | 5.14−1.21 · n=87 | |
| NCEP GFSgfs | 2.55+0.70 · n=88 | 2.75+1.12 · n=87 | 2.83+1.28 · n=86 | 3.11+1.55 · n=85 | 3.20+1.10 · n=84 | 4.03+0.48 · n=83 | 4.30−0.46 · n=82 | 5.07−0.46 · n=81 | 6.23−1.61 · n=80 | 6.30−1.78 · n=79 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init)graphcast_gfs | 1.73+1.21 · n=56 | 2.03+1.29 · n=56 | 1.82+0.71 · n=55 | 2.38+0.85 · n=54 | 2.35+0.54 · n=55 | 3.38−0.21 · n=56 | 3.99−0.51 · n=55 | 4.55−0.17 · n=55 | 4.59+0.10 · n=55 | 5.86+0.46 · n=55 | |
| GraphCast (IFS init)graphcast_ifs | 1.75+0.20 · n=86 | 1.93+0.03 · n=86 | 2.20−0.00 · n=86 | 2.48+0.17 · n=86 | 2.69+0.39 · n=86 | 2.98+0.14 · n=86 | 3.48−0.49 · n=86 | 4.46−0.67 · n=86 | 4.77−0.27 · n=86 | 5.15−1.03 · n=86 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 1.88+0.95 · n=88 | 1.94+0.85 · n=87 | 2.09+1.04 · n=86 | 2.44+1.28 · n=85 | 2.72+1.52 · n=84 | 3.09+1.20 · n=83 | 3.49+1.38 · n=82 | 4.33+1.25 · n=81 | 4.79+1.03 · n=80 | 5.08+1.29 · n=79 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init)pangu_gfs | 2.01−0.50 · n=56 | 1.89−0.07 · n=56 | 1.74−0.42 · n=55 | 2.16+0.02 · n=54 | 2.89+0.02 · n=55 | 3.83−0.22 · n=56 | 4.06−1.28 · n=55 | 4.57−0.18 · n=55 | 5.50−0.44 · n=55 | 4.86−0.87 · n=55 | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init)pangu_ifs | 1.86−0.13 · n=84 | 2.22−1.14 · n=84 | 2.36−1.03 · n=84 | 2.56−0.84 · n=84 | 2.64−0.62 · n=84 | 3.11−0.73 · n=84 | 4.18−0.89 · n=84 | 4.93−0.38 · n=84 | 6.81−1.01 · n=84 | 6.25−1.67 · n=84 | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 4.07+0.34 · n=89 | 5.51+0.67 · n=89 | 5.57+0.92 · n=89 | 5.92+1.20 · n=89 | 6.43+1.42 · n=89 | 6.72+1.66 · n=89 | 6.72+1.87 · n=89 | 6.97+2.00 · n=89 | 6.89+2.19 · n=89 |
Native daily maximum vs NWS CLI
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCEP GFSgfs | 3.19+1.82 · n=88 | 3.72+2.22 · n=87 | 4.22+2.33 · n=86 | 4.58+1.90 · n=85 | 5.28+0.97 · n=84 | 5.98+0.34 · n=83 | 6.41−0.97 · n=82 | 7.61−0.78 · n=81 | 8.21−0.93 · n=80 | — | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 2.35−1.18 · n=88 | 2.83−1.10 · n=87 | 2.96−1.06 · n=86 | 3.42−1.07 · n=85 | 3.64−1.10 · n=83 | 4.39−1.06 · n=83 | 5.00−1.28 · n=82 | 4.97−0.85 · n=81 | 5.88−1.38 · n=80 | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 4.53+0.17 · n=88 | 5.97+0.63 · n=88 | 6.87+1.03 · n=88 | 7.45+1.20 · n=88 | 7.93+1.48 · n=88 | 8.11+1.75 · n=88 | 8.48+1.89 · n=88 | 8.64+2.05 · n=88 | 8.58+2.22 · n=88 |
Native daily minimum vs NWS CLI
| Model | d0 | d1 | d2 | d3 | d4 | d5 | d6 | d7 | d8 | d9 | lead 1–9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCEP GFSgfs | 2.31−0.20 · n=88 | 2.42+0.13 · n=87 | 2.39+0.29 · n=86 | 2.79+0.52 · n=85 | 3.00−0.20 · n=84 | 3.85−0.62 · n=83 | 4.45−1.56 · n=82 | 5.19−1.77 · n=81 | 6.36−2.85 · n=80 | — | |
| ECMWF IFS HRESifs_hres | 1.48+0.06 · n=88 | 1.50+0.01 · n=87 | 1.61+0.18 · n=86 | 1.88+0.40 · n=85 | 2.20+0.63 · n=83 | 2.83+0.37 · n=83 | 3.33+0.70 · n=82 | 3.95+0.20 · n=81 | 4.46+0.15 · n=80 | — | |
| Persistence (baseline)persistence | — | 4.00+0.23 · n=88 | 5.48+0.59 · n=88 | 5.57+0.86 · n=88 | 5.85+1.08 · n=88 | 6.37+1.31 · n=88 | 6.72+1.60 · n=88 | 6.77+1.86 · n=88 | 6.98+2.09 · n=88 | 6.93+2.25 · n=88 |
Month by month
MAE °F at lead day 1, 00Z, bilinear, instantaneous temperature — the seasonal slice behind the window averages. A model that is excellent in one season and poor in another shows up here and nowhere else.
| Month | aifs_single | aurora_gfs | aurora_ifs | fourcastnet_gfs | fourcastnet_ifs | gfs | graphcast_gfs | graphcast_ifs | ifs_hres | pangu_gfs | pangu_ifs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 2.43-1.49 · n=110 | 2.58-1.94 · n=68 | 2.21-1.49 · n=98 | 3.41-2.73 · n=68 | 3.49-2.75 · n=110 | 2.37+0.53 · n=110 | 2.51-1.20 · n=68 | 2.45-1.77 · n=106 | 2.53-1.06 · n=110 | 2.96-2.29 · n=68 | 3.28-2.47 · n=102 |
| 2026-09 | 2.44-1.30 · n=120 | 2.34-1.83 · n=80 | 2.61-1.70 · n=104 | 2.70-1.92 · n=80 | 3.06-1.83 · n=112 | 3.06-0.05 · n=120 | 2.43-1.81 · n=80 | 2.94-2.25 · n=116 | 2.31-0.46 · n=120 | 2.85-1.68 · n=80 | 3.49-2.18 · n=108 |
| 2026-08 | 2.75-1.95 · n=120 | 2.80-1.89 · n=76 | 3.16-2.73 · n=124 | 2.97-2.01 · n=76 | 3.15-2.61 · n=124 | 3.81+1.59 · n=120 | 2.90-2.01 · n=76 | 3.42-3.12 · n=120 | 2.13-0.36 · n=120 | 2.80-1.21 · n=76 | 3.73-3.07 · n=124 |
| 2026-07 | — | 2.60-2.18 · n=48 | 3.37-3.09 · n=80 | 3.43-2.87 · n=48 | 3.56-2.75 · n=80 | — | 3.24-3.05 · n=48 | 3.55-2.92 · n=124 | — | 3.14-1.77 · n=48 | 3.28-2.68 · n=80 |
| 2026-06 | — | 3.31-3.05 · n=64 | 2.56-0.71 · n=12 | 3.39-2.76 · n=64 | 3.68-1.24 · n=12 | — | 3.88-3.75 · n=64 | 2.86-2.51 · n=48 | — | 3.32-2.91 · n=64 | 3.25-1.71 · n=12 |
| 2026-05 | — | 3.06-2.46 · n=76 | 2.71-2.31 · n=40 | 3.18-2.25 · n=76 | 3.36-2.76 · n=40 | — | 3.65-2.59 · n=76 | 3.20-3.04 · n=40 | — | 3.51-2.69 · n=76 | 3.61-3.01 · n=40 |
| 2026-04 | — | 2.71-2.27 · n=96 | 2.81-2.46 · n=116 | 3.29-2.76 · n=96 | 3.16-2.58 · n=116 | — | 2.92-2.64 · n=96 | 3.10-2.71 · n=116 | — | 3.34-2.84 · n=96 | 3.10-2.32 · n=116 |
| 2026-03 | — | 4.11-3.49 · n=124 | 3.92-3.48 · n=124 | 4.20-3.42 · n=124 | 4.37-3.31 · n=124 | — | 4.17-3.41 · n=124 | 4.58-4.22 · n=124 | — | 4.50-3.57 · n=124 | 3.87-2.73 · n=124 |
| 2026-02 | — | 3.46-2.60 · n=112 | 3.12-2.22 · n=112 | 4.38-3.92 · n=112 | 3.72-2.87 · n=112 | — | 3.57-2.71 · n=112 | 3.34-2.54 · n=112 | — | 4.38-3.34 · n=112 | 3.23-1.58 · n=112 |
| 2026-01 | — | 3.23-2.43 · n=120 | 2.95-2.43 · n=120 | 4.86-4.58 · n=120 | 4.25-3.69 · n=120 | — | 4.21-3.74 · n=120 | 3.33-2.95 · n=120 | — | 4.94-4.82 · n=120 | 3.04-2.71 · n=120 |
Model availability at this station
Each model is scored only over its own available period, on a shared scale; the window averages above are therefore not identical across models.
| Model | Period | Scored days | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Single | 2026-08-02 → 2026-10-27 | 87 | |
| Aurora (GFS init) | 2026-01-02 → 2026-10-27 | 216 | |
| Aurora (IFS init) | 2026-01-02 → 2026-10-27 | 232 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) | 2026-01-02 → 2026-10-27 | 216 | |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) | 2026-01-02 → 2026-10-27 | 237 | |
| NCEP GFS | 2026-08-02 → 2026-10-27 | 87 | |
| GraphCast (GFS init) | 2026-01-02 → 2026-10-27 | 216 | |
| GraphCast (IFS init) | 2026-01-02 → 2026-10-27 | 256 | |
| ECMWF IFS HRES | 2026-08-02 → 2026-10-27 | 87 | |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init) | 2026-01-02 → 2026-10-27 | 216 | |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init) | 2026-01-02 → 2026-10-27 | 234 | |
| Persistence (baseline) | 2026-01-01 → 2026-10-27 | 300 |
Observed truthlast 30 days
| Climatological day | Tmax °F | Tmin °F | Source | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | 61 | 44 | CLI | obs_diff_gt2f |
| 2026-10-26 | 49 | 42 | CLI | |
| 2026-10-25 | 55 | 48 | CLI | |
| 2026-10-24 | 75 | 51 | CLI | |
| 2026-10-23 | 76 | 56 | CLI | |
| 2026-10-22 | 75 | 49 | CLI | obs_diff_gt2f |
| 2026-10-21 | 74 | 48 | CLI | |
| 2026-10-20 | 69 | 46 | CLI | |
| 2026-10-19 | 66 | 44 | CLI | obs_diff_gt2f |
| 2026-10-18 | 70 | 48 | CLI | |
| 2026-10-17 | 60 | 36 | CLI | |
| 2026-10-16 | 53 | 40 | CLI | |
| 2026-10-15 | 51 | 45 | CLI | |
| 2026-10-14 | 55 | 46 | CLI | |
| 2026-10-13 | 57 | 53 | CLI | |
| 2026-10-12 | 81 | 55 | CLI | |
| 2026-10-11 | 90 | 65 | CLI | |
| 2026-10-10 | 90 | 60 | CLI | |
| 2026-10-09 | 73 | 50 | CLI | |
| 2026-10-08 | 67 | 48 | CLI | obs_diff_gt2f |
| 2026-10-07 | 74 | 52 | CLI | |
| 2026-10-06 | 82 | 55 | CLI | |
| 2026-10-05 | 68 | 44 | CLI | |
| 2026-10-04 | 69 | 48 | CLI | |
| 2026-10-03 | 71 | 54 | CLI | |
| 2026-10-02 | 64 | 44 | CLI | |
| 2026-10-01 | 67 | 50 | CLI | |
| 2026-09-30 | 72 | 63 | CLI | |
| 2026-09-29 | 68 | 62 | CLI | |
| 2026-09-28 | 72 | 55 | CLI |