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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Minneapolis-St Paul · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 7

KMSP · aifs_single · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC6.65 [5.30, 7.87]3.22-6.24 [-7.73, -4.64]7.38 [6.13, 8.36]4% [0%, 12%]9%22%-1.12-0.002026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC6.65 [5.11, 7.91]3.22-6.24 [-7.76, -4.41]7.38 [5.90, 8.43]4% [0%, 12%]9%22%-1.12-0.002026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC6.65 [5.06, 8.00]3.22-6.24 [-7.87, -4.42]7.38 [5.91, 8.49]4% [0%, 14%]9%22%-1.12-0.002026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC6.65 [4.91, 7.97]3.22-6.24 [-7.89, -4.34]7.38 [5.71, 8.50]4% [0%, 14%]9%22%-1.12-0.002026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC6.71 [5.40, 7.88]3.17-6.28 [-7.71, -4.71]7.40 [6.23, 8.37]4% [0%, 12%]4%22%-1.14+0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC6.71 [5.26, 7.92]3.17-6.28 [-7.77, -4.50]7.40 [5.99, 8.41]4% [0%, 12%]4%22%-1.14+0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC6.71 [5.28, 8.01]3.17-6.28 [-7.90, -4.51]7.40 [6.05, 8.49]4% [0%, 14%]4%22%-1.14+0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC6.71 [5.08, 7.97]3.17-6.28 [-7.88, -4.42]7.40 [5.85, 8.47]4% [0%, 14%]4%22%-1.14+0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC6.70 [5.97, 7.45]2.97-6.43 [-7.32, -5.52]7.43 [6.76, 8.02]4% [0%, 12%]4%17%-1.14+0.072026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC6.70 [5.80, 7.49]2.97-6.43 [-7.42, -5.51]7.43 [6.63, 8.08]4% [0%, 13%]4%17%-1.14+0.072026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC6.70 [5.85, 7.53]2.97-6.43 [-7.38, -5.47]7.43 [6.66, 8.14]4% [0%, 13%]4%17%-1.14+0.072026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall23 1 QC6.70 [5.88, 7.49]2.97-6.43 [-7.33, -5.33]7.43 [6.67, 8.08]4% [0%, 14%]4%17%-1.14+0.072026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d23 1 QC6.71 [5.95, 7.49]2.88-6.43 [-7.36, -5.53]7.42 [6.72, 8.02]4% [0%, 12%]4%17%-1.14+0.102026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d23 1 QC6.71 [5.75, 7.57]2.88-6.43 [-7.47, -5.50]7.42 [6.58, 8.06]4% [0%, 13%]4%17%-1.14+0.102026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d23 1 QC6.71 [5.86, 7.60]2.88-6.43 [-7.45, -5.51]7.42 [6.59, 8.15]4% [0%, 13%]4%17%-1.14+0.102026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall23 1 QC6.71 [5.89, 7.51]2.88-6.43 [-7.38, -5.38]7.42 [6.67, 8.08]4% [0%, 14%]4%17%-1.14+0.102026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC4.34 [3.54, 5.36]3.40-2.35 [-3.95, -0.46]5.21 [4.17, 6.39]4% [0%, 12%]26%35%+0.29+0.442026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC4.34 [3.52, 5.80]3.40-2.35 [-3.96, 0.04]5.21 [4.09, 6.70]4% [0%, 13%]26%35%+0.29+0.442026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC4.34 [3.44, 5.44]3.40-2.35 [-3.91, -0.01]5.21 [4.08, 6.49]4% [0%, 13%]26%35%+0.29+0.442026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC4.34 [3.32, 5.64]3.40-2.35 [-3.96, 0.08]5.21 [4.01, 6.69]4% [0%, 14%]26%35%+0.29+0.442026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC4.45 [3.66, 5.47]3.39-2.52 [-4.12, -0.62]5.28 [4.26, 6.45]9% [0%, 19%]22%35%+0.27+0.442026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC4.45 [3.62, 5.89]3.39-2.52 [-4.13, -0.15]5.28 [4.19, 6.76]9% [0%, 20%]22%35%+0.27+0.442026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC4.45 [3.54, 5.53]3.39-2.52 [-4.10, -0.19]5.28 [4.13, 6.54]9% [0%, 21%]22%35%+0.27+0.442026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC4.45 [3.42, 5.75]3.39-2.52 [-4.11, -0.14]5.28 [4.08, 6.74]9% [0%, 20%]22%35%+0.27+0.442026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC4.59 [3.84, 5.26]3.24-3.43 [-4.73, -1.56]5.41 [4.50, 6.16]9% [0%, 21%]17%35%+0.25+0.472026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC4.59 [3.81, 5.34]3.24-3.43 [-4.85, -1.50]5.41 [4.47, 6.19]9% [0%, 25%]17%35%+0.25+0.472026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC4.59 [3.72, 5.22]3.24-3.43 [-4.81, -1.32]5.41 [4.32, 6.09]9% [0%, 23%]17%35%+0.25+0.472026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall23 1 QC4.59 [3.54, 5.24]3.24-3.43 [-4.79, -1.14]5.41 [4.08, 6.09]9% [0%, 28%]17%35%+0.25+0.472026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d23 1 QC4.69 [3.91, 5.37]3.22-3.64 [-4.93, -1.75]5.51 [4.58, 6.26]4% [0%, 17%]17%35%+0.23+0.472026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d23 1 QC4.69 [3.88, 5.42]3.22-3.64 [-5.06, -1.74]5.51 [4.55, 6.32]4% [0%, 20%]17%35%+0.23+0.472026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d23 1 QC4.69 [3.78, 5.34]3.22-3.64 [-5.00, -1.52]5.51 [4.36, 6.22]4% [0%, 20%]17%35%+0.23+0.472026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall23 1 QC4.69 [3.62, 5.37]3.22-3.64 [-5.00, -1.35]5.51 [4.16, 6.22]4% [0%, 25%]17%35%+0.23+0.472026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSP, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-08: +1.94 °F2026-08-09: -9.54 °F2026-08-10: -6.85 °F2026-08-11: -10.44 °F2026-08-12: -8.6 °F2026-08-13: -2.38 °F2026-08-14: -11.87 °F2026-08-15: -8.82 °F2026-08-16: -6.72 °F2026-08-17: -10.62 °F2026-08-18: -5.43 °F2026-08-19: -9.54 °F2026-08-20: -6.32 °F2026-08-21: -8.53 °F2026-08-22: +2.35 °F2026-08-23: -5.48 °F2026-08-24: -9.51 °F2026-08-25: +0.44 °F2026-08-26: -2.36 °F2026-08-27: -8.25 °F2026-08-28: -8.76 °F2026-08-29: -3.33 °F2026-08-30: -4.9 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.90
2026-08-29-3.33
2026-08-28-8.76
2026-08-27-8.25
2026-08-26-2.36
2026-08-25+0.44
2026-08-24-9.51
2026-08-23-5.48
2026-08-22+2.35
2026-08-21-8.53
2026-08-20-6.32
2026-08-19-9.54
2026-08-18-5.43
2026-08-17-10.62
2026-08-16-6.72
2026-08-15-8.82
2026-08-14-11.87
2026-08-13-2.38
2026-08-12-8.60
2026-08-11-10.44
2026-08-10-6.85
2026-08-09-9.54
2026-08-08+1.94

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSP, lead day 7-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 3 days-10 to -8 °F: 8 days-8 to -6 °F: 3 days-6 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 6.85 · P90 |e| 10.26 °F-200+20 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.003
-10.00-8.008
-8.00-6.003
-6.00-4.003
-4.00-2.003
-2.00+0.000
+0.00+2.002
+2.00+4.001
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08236.65 -6.24

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 23 +1.50 [0.30, 2.78] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 23 -0.90 [-3.53, 0.88] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 +2.81 [-0.54, 6.00] no
Persistence (baseline) 23 +3.52 [1.91, 4.61] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSP aifs_single lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/aifs_single/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSP (Minneapolis-St Paul), model aifs_single, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/aifs_single/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence