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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Minneapolis-St Paul · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 7

KMSP · ifs_hres · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC3.59 [2.06, 5.20]3.36-3.13 [-4.97, -1.23]5.10 [3.17, 6.63]33% [8%, 64%]56%61%-0.37-0.292026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC3.59 [1.53, 5.64]3.36-3.13 [-5.32, 0.26]5.10 [1.53, 6.99]33% [0%, 64%]56%61%-0.37-0.292026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC3.59 [1.53, 5.56]3.36-3.13 [-5.25, 0.22]5.10 [1.53, 6.94]33% [0%, 67%]56%61%-0.37-0.292026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 1 QC3.59 [1.53, 5.72]3.36-3.13 [-5.33, 0.21]5.10 [1.53, 7.08]33% [0%, 70%]56%61%-0.37-0.292026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 1 QC3.42 [1.99, 4.88]3.51-2.50 [-4.37, -0.56]4.88 [3.12, 6.25]33% [8%, 57%]50%61%-0.31-0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 1 QC3.42 [1.83, 5.21]3.51-2.50 [-4.76, 0.95]4.88 [1.92, 6.52]33% [0%, 60%]50%61%-0.31-0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 1 QC3.42 [1.92, 5.15]3.51-2.50 [-4.74, 0.87]4.88 [1.92, 6.49]33% [0%, 60%]50%61%-0.31-0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 1 QC3.42 [1.83, 5.32]3.51-2.50 [-4.76, 0.90]4.88 [1.92, 6.55]33% [0%, 65%]50%61%-0.31-0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC5.04 [4.18, 5.95]3.42-4.06 [-5.40, -1.46]6.09 [4.73, 7.07]6% [0%, 17%]18%29%-1.14-0.442026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC5.04 [4.05, 5.93]3.42-4.06 [-5.44, 0.31]6.09 [4.67, 7.17]6% [0%, 20%]18%29%-1.14-0.442026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC5.04 [4.05, 5.95]3.42-4.06 [-5.56, 0.23]6.09 [4.68, 7.22]6% [0%, 17%]18%29%-1.14-0.442026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 1 QC5.04 [4.01, 5.87]3.42-4.06 [-5.50, 0.04]6.09 [4.64, 7.12]6% [0%, 17%]18%29%-1.14-0.442026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 1 QC4.83 [3.92, 5.92]3.64-3.35 [-4.80, -0.58]5.83 [4.68, 6.83]0% [0%, 0%]18%41%-1.05-0.542026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 1 QC4.83 [3.83, 6.37]3.64-3.35 [-4.92, 1.37]5.83 [4.59, 7.03]0% [0%, 0%]18%41%-1.05-0.542026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 1 QC4.83 [3.77, 6.33]3.64-3.35 [-5.02, 1.03]5.83 [4.57, 6.97]0% [0%, 0%]18%41%-1.05-0.542026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 1 QC4.83 [3.74, 6.37]3.64-3.35 [-4.95, 1.03]5.83 [4.49, 6.98]0% [0%, 0%]18%41%-1.05-0.542026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC3.28 [2.33, 4.55]3.23+1.28 [-0.28, 3.20]4.38 [2.83, 5.78]22% [10%, 36%]39%44%+0.47+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC3.28 [2.20, 4.87]3.23+1.28 [-0.39, 4.02]4.38 [2.69, 5.96]22% [9%, 36%]39%44%+0.47+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC3.28 [2.12, 4.87]3.23+1.28 [-0.52, 3.68]4.38 [2.61, 5.91]22% [0%, 38%]39%44%+0.47+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 1 QC3.28 [2.17, 4.87]3.23+1.28 [-0.53, 3.76]4.38 [2.66, 5.95]22% [0%, 38%]39%44%+0.47+0.482026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 1 QC3.45 [2.46, 4.76]3.38+1.50 [-0.14, 3.48]4.61 [3.03, 6.00]28% [13%, 40%]39%50%+0.45+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 1 QC3.45 [2.35, 5.12]3.38+1.50 [-0.25, 4.41]4.61 [2.94, 6.22]28% [9%, 40%]39%50%+0.45+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 1 QC3.45 [2.25, 5.11]3.38+1.50 [-0.38, 4.07]4.61 [2.86, 6.21]28% [0%, 43%]39%50%+0.45+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 1 QC3.45 [2.33, 5.11]3.38+1.50 [-0.41, 4.03]4.61 [2.88, 6.22]28% [0%, 40%]39%50%+0.45+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC2.91 [2.00, 4.76]2.99+0.87 [-0.68, 3.81]4.05 [2.68, 6.30]35% [19%, 53%]47%59%+0.50+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC2.91 [1.91, 5.94]2.99+0.87 [-0.99, 5.54]4.05 [2.59, 7.61]35% [16%, 52%]47%59%+0.50+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC2.91 [1.83, 5.73]2.99+0.87 [-1.09, 5.20]4.05 [2.49, 7.56]35% [14%, 51%]47%59%+0.50+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 1 QC2.91 [1.76, 5.69]2.99+0.87 [-1.16, 4.88]4.05 [2.45, 7.42]35% [12%, 55%]47%59%+0.50+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 1 QC3.00 [1.99, 4.98]3.13+1.01 [-0.63, 4.10]4.21 [2.80, 6.66]41% [25%, 55%]53%59%+0.48+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 1 QC3.00 [1.92, 6.15]3.13+1.01 [-0.97, 5.74]4.21 [2.71, 7.99]41% [20%, 53%]53%59%+0.48+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 1 QC3.00 [1.81, 5.92]3.13+1.01 [-1.10, 5.50]4.21 [2.55, 7.96]41% [24%, 55%]53%59%+0.48+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 1 QC3.00 [1.70, 5.89]3.13+1.01 [-1.15, 5.22]4.21 [2.56, 7.76]41% [20%, 55%]53%59%+0.48+0.462026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSP, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-08: +1.53 °F2026-08-14: -0.18 °F2026-08-15: -0.72 °F2026-08-16: -0.88 °F2026-08-17: -9.8 °F2026-08-18: +0.98 °F2026-08-19: -4.16 °F2026-08-20: +1.61 °F2026-08-21: -7.62 °F2026-08-22: -0.38 °F2026-08-23: -1.96 °F2026-08-24: -4.3 °F2026-08-25: -0.29 °F2026-08-26: -1.43 °F2026-08-27: -9.66 °F2026-08-28: -2.48 °F2026-08-29: -12 °F2026-08-30: -4.62 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.62
2026-08-29-12.00
2026-08-28-2.48
2026-08-27-9.66
2026-08-26-1.43
2026-08-25-0.29
2026-08-24-4.30
2026-08-23-1.96
2026-08-22-0.38
2026-08-21-7.62
2026-08-20+1.61
2026-08-19-4.16
2026-08-18+0.98
2026-08-17-9.80
2026-08-16-0.88
2026-08-15-0.72
2026-08-14-0.18
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08+1.53

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSP, lead day 7-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 1 day-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 2 days-8 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to 0 °F: 7 days0 to 2 °F: 3 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.79 · P90 |e| 9.7 °F-200+20 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.001
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.002
-8.00-6.001
-6.00-4.003
-4.00-2.001
-2.00+0.007
+0.00+2.003
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08183.59 -3.13

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 -2.81 [-6.00, 0.54] no
NCEP GFS 18 -1.35 [-5.59, 1.78] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -3.46 [-6.01, -1.15] yes
Persistence (baseline) 18 +0.98 [-2.51, 2.50] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSP ifs_hres lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSP (Minneapolis-St Paul), model ifs_hres, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence