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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Minneapolis-St Paul · NCEP GFS · lead day 7

KMSP · gfs · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC5.15 [3.70, 6.81]5.23-0.61 [-3.29, 2.25]6.30 [4.63, 8.05]13% [0%, 33%]22%30%-0.64-0.632026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC5.15 [3.34, 6.93]5.23-0.61 [-3.62, 2.70]6.30 [4.48, 8.20]13% [0%, 42%]22%30%-0.64-0.632026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC5.15 [3.35, 7.05]5.23-0.61 [-3.68, 3.26]6.30 [4.54, 8.28]13% [0%, 43%]22%30%-0.64-0.632026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC5.15 [3.34, 7.08]5.23-0.61 [-3.73, 2.84]6.30 [4.48, 8.37]13% [0%, 43%]22%30%-0.64-0.632026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC5.28 [4.03, 6.70]5.32-0.24 [-2.79, 2.61]6.38 [4.90, 7.94]4% [0%, 14%]22%35%-0.69-0.662026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC5.28 [3.77, 6.84]5.32-0.24 [-3.10, 2.97]6.38 [4.77, 8.10]4% [0%, 14%]22%35%-0.69-0.662026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC5.28 [3.86, 6.87]5.32-0.24 [-3.23, 3.56]6.38 [4.81, 8.11]4% [0%, 14%]22%35%-0.69-0.662026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC5.28 [3.77, 6.91]5.32-0.24 [-3.22, 3.21]6.38 [4.78, 8.18]4% [0%, 14%]22%35%-0.69-0.662026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC3.82 [2.69, 5.09]3.91-1.27 [-3.50, 0.82]5.07 [3.51, 6.54]26% [7%, 44%]30%48%-0.22-0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC3.82 [2.57, 5.36]3.91-1.27 [-4.11, 0.94]5.07 [3.00, 6.73]26% [4%, 47%]30%48%-0.22-0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC3.82 [2.55, 5.33]3.91-1.27 [-3.79, 1.16]5.07 [2.91, 6.70]26% [0%, 47%]30%48%-0.22-0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall23 1 QC3.82 [2.55, 5.27]3.91-1.27 [-3.98, 1.53]5.07 [2.90, 6.75]26% [0%, 45%]30%48%-0.22-0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d23 1 QC3.99 [2.71, 5.36]3.95-1.00 [-3.55, 1.23]5.13 [3.39, 6.63]13% [0%, 26%]35%43%-0.27-0.232026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d23 1 QC3.99 [2.49, 5.62]3.95-1.00 [-4.37, 1.40]5.13 [2.69, 6.86]13% [0%, 26%]35%43%-0.27-0.232026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d23 1 QC3.99 [2.47, 5.56]3.95-1.00 [-4.00, 1.63]5.13 [2.71, 6.88]13% [0%, 27%]35%43%-0.27-0.232026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall23 1 QC3.99 [2.41, 5.62]3.95-1.00 [-4.24, 1.86]5.13 [2.60, 6.89]13% [0%, 28%]35%43%-0.27-0.232026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC5.32 [4.76, 6.01]5.00-1.47 [-4.69, 2.15]6.41 [5.71, 7.29]9% [0%, 25%]22%35%+0.13+0.182026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC5.32 [4.75, 6.17]5.00-1.47 [-5.23, 2.79]6.41 [5.69, 7.35]9% [0%, 29%]22%35%+0.13+0.182026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC5.32 [4.75, 6.01]5.00-1.47 [-5.37, 2.81]6.41 [5.68, 7.33]9% [0%, 29%]22%35%+0.13+0.182026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC5.32 [4.79, 6.06]5.00-1.47 [-5.37, 2.60]6.41 [5.67, 7.28]9% [0%, 29%]22%35%+0.13+0.182026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC5.17 [4.46, 6.01]5.15-0.28 [-3.49, 3.36]6.32 [5.39, 7.25]13% [4%, 24%]13%39%+0.15+0.152026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC5.17 [4.40, 6.06]5.15-0.28 [-3.84, 3.97]6.32 [5.34, 7.30]13% [0%, 25%]13%39%+0.15+0.152026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC5.17 [4.38, 6.07]5.15-0.28 [-3.95, 4.03]6.32 [5.28, 7.29]13% [0%, 27%]13%39%+0.15+0.152026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC5.17 [4.36, 6.08]5.15-0.28 [-4.19, 3.81]6.32 [5.28, 7.37]13% [0%, 25%]13%39%+0.15+0.152026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC5.25 [4.22, 6.20]5.22-0.75 [-4.02, 2.13]6.58 [5.34, 7.49]17% [7%, 27%]26%39%+0.14+0.142026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC5.25 [4.06, 6.31]5.22-0.75 [-4.36, 2.56]6.58 [5.15, 7.63]17% [7%, 27%]26%39%+0.14+0.142026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC5.25 [4.09, 6.18]5.22-0.75 [-4.77, 2.42]6.58 [5.14, 7.57]17% [5%, 29%]26%39%+0.14+0.142026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall23 1 QC5.25 [4.03, 6.24]5.22-0.75 [-4.78, 2.59]6.58 [5.13, 7.61]17% [0%, 29%]26%39%+0.14+0.142026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d23 1 QC4.99 [4.10, 5.84]4.98+0.21 [-2.97, 3.06]6.37 [5.19, 7.17]13% [0%, 25%]30%43%+0.18+0.182026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d23 1 QC4.99 [4.06, 5.93]4.98+0.21 [-3.45, 3.36]6.37 [5.07, 7.24]13% [0%, 27%]30%43%+0.18+0.182026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d23 1 QC4.99 [4.02, 5.87]4.98+0.21 [-3.67, 3.24]6.37 [5.04, 7.19]13% [0%, 29%]30%43%+0.18+0.182026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall23 1 QC4.99 [3.96, 5.89]4.98+0.21 [-3.62, 3.42]6.37 [4.85, 7.23]13% [0%, 28%]30%43%+0.18+0.182026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KMSP, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-08: +5.1 °F2026-08-09: +2.28 °F2026-08-10: -1.35 °F2026-08-11: -8.26 °F2026-08-12: -9.7 °F2026-08-13: +7.81 °F2026-08-14: -16.37 °F2026-08-15: -5.53 °F2026-08-16: +3.32 °F2026-08-17: -4.46 °F2026-08-18: +2.4 °F2026-08-19: +5.81 °F2026-08-20: +5.47 °F2026-08-21: +3.02 °F2026-08-22: +7.69 °F2026-08-23: +6.44 °F2026-08-24: -3.64 °F2026-08-25: -0.72 °F2026-08-26: -7.84 °F2026-08-27: +1.37 °F2026-08-28: +0.62 °F2026-08-29: +0.79 °F2026-08-30: -8.38 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-8.38
2026-08-29+0.79
2026-08-28+0.62
2026-08-27+1.37
2026-08-26-7.84
2026-08-25-0.72
2026-08-24-3.64
2026-08-23+6.44
2026-08-22+7.69
2026-08-21+3.02
2026-08-20+5.47
2026-08-19+5.81
2026-08-18+2.40
2026-08-17-4.46
2026-08-16+3.32
2026-08-15-5.53
2026-08-14-16.37
2026-08-13+7.81
2026-08-12-9.70
2026-08-11-8.26
2026-08-10-1.35
2026-08-09+2.28
2026-08-08+5.10

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KMSP, lead day 7-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 1 day-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 3 days-8 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 2 °F: 3 days2 to 4 °F: 4 days4 to 6 °F: 3 days6 to 8 °F: 3 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 5.1 · P90 |e| 8.35 °F-200+20 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.001
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.003
-8.00-6.001
-6.00-4.002
-4.00-2.001
-2.00+0.002
+0.00+2.003
+2.00+4.004
+4.00+6.003
+6.00+8.003
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08235.15 -0.61

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
NCEP GFS2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
NCEP GFS2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
NCEP GFS2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 23 -1.50 [-2.78, -0.30] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 23 -2.40 [-5.33, -0.53] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 +1.35 [-1.78, 5.59] no
Persistence (baseline) 23 +2.02 [0.09, 3.13] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSP gfs lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/gfs/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSP (Minneapolis-St Paul), model gfs, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/gfs/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence