Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Minneapolis-St Paul · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 6

KMSP · aifs_single · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC5.85 [4.81, 6.64]3.53-5.10 [-6.30, -3.27]6.66 [5.73, 7.25]12% [4%, 25%]17%17%-0.69-0.022026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC5.85 [4.65, 6.69]3.53-5.10 [-6.42, -2.83]6.66 [5.54, 7.29]12% [4%, 30%]17%17%-0.69-0.022026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC5.85 [4.67, 6.85]3.53-5.10 [-6.52, -2.80]6.66 [5.60, 7.38]12% [0%, 29%]17%17%-0.69-0.022026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall24 1 QC5.85 [4.46, 6.76]3.53-5.10 [-6.37, -2.71]6.66 [5.52, 7.32]12% [0%, 33%]17%17%-0.69-0.022026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d24 1 QC5.91 [4.77, 6.74]3.53-5.16 [-6.42, -3.30]6.70 [5.73, 7.36]8% [0%, 18%]17%17%-0.71-0.022026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d24 1 QC5.91 [4.64, 6.80]3.53-5.16 [-6.52, -2.87]6.70 [5.55, 7.40]8% [0%, 20%]17%17%-0.71-0.022026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d24 1 QC5.91 [4.66, 6.95]3.53-5.16 [-6.60, -2.93]6.70 [5.55, 7.49]8% [0%, 20%]17%17%-0.71-0.022026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall24 1 QC5.91 [4.55, 6.86]3.53-5.16 [-6.49, -2.97]6.70 [5.56, 7.43]8% [0%, 19%]17%17%-0.71-0.022026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC5.48 [4.65, 6.16]3.03-4.95 [-6.02, -3.53]6.26 [5.58, 6.80]21% [8%, 33%]21%21%-0.59+0.122026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC5.48 [4.51, 6.15]3.03-4.95 [-5.97, -3.01]6.26 [5.45, 6.72]21% [8%, 36%]21%21%-0.59+0.122026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC5.48 [4.50, 6.14]3.03-4.95 [-5.99, -3.15]6.26 [5.48, 6.73]21% [7%, 36%]21%21%-0.59+0.122026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC5.48 [4.40, 6.13]3.03-4.95 [-5.94, -3.17]6.26 [5.17, 6.71]21% [7%, 40%]21%21%-0.59+0.122026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC5.52 [4.71, 6.22]3.05-4.98 [-6.10, -3.53]6.29 [5.62, 6.84]17% [3%, 33%]21%21%-0.60+0.122026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC5.52 [4.54, 6.22]3.05-4.98 [-6.07, -3.02]6.29 [5.47, 6.78]17% [0%, 36%]21%21%-0.60+0.122026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC5.52 [4.53, 6.20]3.05-4.98 [-6.13, -3.15]6.29 [5.48, 6.79]17% [0%, 36%]21%21%-0.60+0.122026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC5.52 [4.43, 6.17]3.05-4.98 [-6.04, -3.22]6.29 [5.22, 6.77]17% [0%, 40%]21%21%-0.60+0.122026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.66 [2.91, 4.34]2.75-2.08 [-3.18, -0.63]4.14 [3.19, 4.82]0% [0%, 0%]17%46%+0.38+0.532026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.66 [2.72, 4.42]2.75-2.08 [-3.24, -0.32]4.14 [2.92, 4.91]0% [0%, 0%]17%46%+0.38+0.532026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.66 [2.70, 4.42]2.75-2.08 [-3.21, -0.24]4.14 [2.91, 4.90]0% [0%, 0%]17%46%+0.38+0.532026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.66 [2.70, 4.45]2.75-2.08 [-3.41, -0.05]4.14 [2.83, 4.95]0% [0%, 0%]17%46%+0.38+0.532026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d24 1 QC3.77 [2.94, 4.50]2.71-2.33 [-3.42, -0.93]4.24 [3.21, 4.98]0% [0%, 0%]17%38%+0.36+0.542026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d24 1 QC3.77 [2.79, 4.62]2.71-2.33 [-3.53, -0.66]4.24 [3.05, 5.07]0% [0%, 0%]17%38%+0.36+0.542026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d24 1 QC3.77 [2.73, 4.58]2.71-2.33 [-3.46, -0.49]4.24 [2.88, 5.04]0% [0%, 0%]17%38%+0.36+0.542026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall24 1 QC3.77 [2.68, 4.64]2.71-2.33 [-3.65, -0.37]4.24 [2.79, 5.12]0% [0%, 0%]17%38%+0.36+0.542026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.46 [2.40, 4.66]3.11-1.88 [-3.19, -0.29]4.34 [3.24, 5.46]25% [5%, 48%]33%50%+0.41+0.472026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.46 [2.35, 4.85]3.11-1.88 [-3.23, 0.23]4.34 [3.11, 5.67]25% [0%, 50%]33%50%+0.41+0.472026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.46 [2.31, 4.80]3.11-1.88 [-3.29, 0.22]4.34 [3.09, 5.59]25% [0%, 52%]33%50%+0.41+0.472026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.46 [2.29, 4.72]3.11-1.88 [-3.19, 0.42]4.34 [3.09, 5.60]25% [0%, 53%]33%50%+0.41+0.472026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC3.48 [2.34, 4.74]3.09-2.11 [-3.43, -0.49]4.41 [3.27, 5.52]25% [5%, 48%]33%50%+0.41+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC3.48 [2.31, 4.95]3.09-2.11 [-3.47, -0.03]4.41 [3.15, 5.72]25% [0%, 50%]33%50%+0.41+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC3.48 [2.22, 4.87]3.09-2.11 [-3.56, -0.00]4.41 [3.16, 5.65]25% [0%, 52%]33%50%+0.41+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC3.48 [2.25, 4.79]3.09-2.11 [-3.44, 0.10]4.41 [3.15, 5.66]25% [0%, 52%]33%50%+0.41+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSP, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-07: +3.62 °F2026-08-08: +0.79 °F2026-08-09: -5.59 °F2026-08-10: -8.68 °F2026-08-11: -9.48 °F2026-08-12: -6.48 °F2026-08-13: +1.38 °F2026-08-14: -4.5 °F2026-08-15: -0.5 °F2026-08-16: -10.66 °F2026-08-17: -4.73 °F2026-08-18: -6.88 °F2026-08-19: -9.48 °F2026-08-20: -7.36 °F2026-08-21: -8.37 °F2026-08-22: -3.11 °F2026-08-23: -5.72 °F2026-08-24: -10.96 °F2026-08-25: +3.17 °F2026-08-26: -5.85 °F2026-08-27: -8.59 °F2026-08-28: -4.02 °F2026-08-29: -9.73 °F2026-08-30: -0.71 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.71
2026-08-29-9.73
2026-08-28-4.02
2026-08-27-8.59
2026-08-26-5.85
2026-08-25+3.17
2026-08-24-10.96
2026-08-23-5.72
2026-08-22-3.11
2026-08-21-8.37
2026-08-20-7.36
2026-08-19-9.48
2026-08-18-6.88
2026-08-17-4.73
2026-08-16-10.66
2026-08-15-0.50
2026-08-14-4.50
2026-08-13+1.38
2026-08-12-6.48
2026-08-11-9.48
2026-08-10-8.68
2026-08-09-5.59
2026-08-08+0.79
2026-08-07+3.62

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSP, lead day 6-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 2 days-10 to -8 °F: 6 days-8 to -6 °F: 3 days-6 to -4 °F: 6 days-4 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 5.79 · P90 |e| 9.65 °F-200+20 °Fn = 24 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.002
-10.00-8.006
-8.00-6.003
-6.00-4.006
-4.00-2.001
-2.00+0.002
+0.00+2.002
+2.00+4.002
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08245.85 -5.10

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 24 +1.10 [-2.15, 3.38] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 24 -1.08 [-2.14, 0.26] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 19 +0.81 [-1.64, 1.95] no
Persistence (baseline) 24 +2.39 [-0.00, 3.97] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSP aifs_single lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/aifs_single/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSP (Minneapolis-St Paul), model aifs_single, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/aifs_single/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence