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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Minneapolis-St Paul · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 6

KMSP · ifs_hres · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d19 1 QC4.95 [4.34, 5.66]4.23-2.68 [-4.27, 0.56]5.66 [5.01, 6.34]11% [0%, 19%]16%26%-0.74-0.522026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d19 1 QC4.95 [4.37, 5.66]4.23-2.68 [-4.58, 4.10]5.66 [5.02, 6.27]11% [0%, 19%]16%26%-0.74-0.522026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d19 1 QC4.95 [4.30, 5.68]4.23-2.68 [-4.69, 4.14]5.66 [4.92, 6.37]11% [0%, 18%]16%26%-0.74-0.522026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall19 1 QC4.95 [4.38, 5.78]4.23-2.68 [-4.55, 3.78]5.66 [5.01, 6.45]11% [0%, 18%]16%26%-0.74-0.522026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d19 1 QC5.19 [4.58, 6.25]4.71-1.82 [-3.65, 1.95]5.71 [5.06, 6.63]0% [0%, 0%]5%16%-0.83-0.692026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d19 1 QC5.19 [4.56, 7.13]4.71-1.82 [-3.93, 6.00]5.71 [5.08, 7.18]0% [0%, 0%]5%16%-0.83-0.692026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d19 1 QC5.19 [4.41, 7.24]4.71-1.82 [-4.07, 6.00]5.71 [4.90, 7.24]0% [0%, 0%]5%16%-0.83-0.692026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall19 1 QC5.19 [4.52, 7.24]4.71-1.82 [-3.99, 5.69]5.71 [5.01, 7.24]0% [0%, 0%]5%16%-0.83-0.692026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d19 1 QC3.66 [2.37, 5.01]2.68-2.56 [-3.92, -0.10]4.36 [2.63, 5.47]0% [0%, 0%]42%53%-0.29+0.042026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d19 1 QC3.66 [2.19, 5.14]2.68-2.56 [-3.92, 1.18]4.36 [2.36, 5.53]0% [0%, 0%]42%53%-0.29+0.042026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d19 1 QC3.66 [2.15, 5.23]2.68-2.56 [-4.10, 1.56]4.36 [2.28, 5.61]0% [0%, 0%]42%53%-0.29+0.042026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall19 1 QC3.66 [2.20, 5.25]2.68-2.56 [-3.93, 0.73]4.36 [2.37, 5.63]0% [0%, 0%]42%53%-0.29+0.042026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d19 1 QC3.33 [2.01, 5.10]2.74-1.80 [-3.28, 1.00]4.21 [2.63, 5.60]21% [0%, 35%]47%53%-0.17+0.022026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d19 1 QC3.33 [1.83, 5.84]2.74-1.80 [-3.27, 2.60]4.21 [2.25, 5.84]21% [0%, 36%]47%53%-0.17+0.022026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d19 1 QC3.33 [1.75, 5.84]2.74-1.80 [-3.41, 3.17]4.21 [2.14, 5.84]21% [0%, 38%]47%53%-0.17+0.022026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall19 1 QC3.33 [1.87, 5.84]2.74-1.80 [-3.26, 1.95]4.21 [2.22, 5.84]21% [0%, 38%]47%53%-0.17+0.022026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d19 1 QC2.50 [1.66, 3.06]2.49+0.91 [-0.21, 1.90]3.35 [2.01, 4.22]21% [6%, 38%]47%68%+0.57+0.572026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d19 1 QC2.50 [1.38, 3.07]2.49+0.91 [-0.37, 1.90]3.35 [1.59, 4.21]21% [0%, 40%]47%68%+0.57+0.572026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d19 1 QC2.50 [1.33, 3.05]2.49+0.91 [-0.60, 1.88]3.35 [1.33, 4.24]21% [0%, 41%]47%68%+0.57+0.572026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall19 1 QC2.50 [1.33, 3.06]2.49+0.91 [-0.49, 1.91]3.35 [1.33, 4.22]21% [0%, 40%]47%68%+0.57+0.572026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d19 1 QC2.66 [1.75, 3.27]2.60+1.25 [0.19, 2.24]3.58 [2.20, 4.35]26% [10%, 40%]53%68%+0.54+0.552026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d19 1 QC2.66 [1.71, 3.32]2.60+1.25 [0.07, 2.23]3.58 [1.96, 4.40]26% [0%, 39%]53%68%+0.54+0.552026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d19 1 QC2.66 [1.71, 3.33]2.60+1.25 [-0.15, 2.18]3.58 [1.71, 4.42]26% [0%, 43%]53%68%+0.54+0.552026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall19 1 QC2.66 [1.69, 3.33]2.60+1.25 [0.02, 2.22]3.58 [1.71, 4.40]26% [0%, 43%]53%68%+0.54+0.552026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d19 1 QC1.77 [1.09, 2.37]1.96+0.67 [-0.39, 1.62]2.60 [1.29, 3.41]47% [20%, 69%]74%84%+0.70+0.662026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d19 1 QC1.77 [1.02, 2.39]1.96+0.67 [-0.58, 1.71]2.60 [1.21, 3.49]47% [0%, 70%]74%84%+0.70+0.662026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d19 1 QC1.77 [0.88, 2.43]1.96+0.67 [-0.70, 1.71]2.60 [1.03, 3.49]47% [0%, 72%]74%84%+0.70+0.662026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall19 1 QC1.77 [0.93, 2.42]1.96+0.67 [-0.66, 1.71]2.60 [1.06, 3.47]47% [0%, 71%]74%84%+0.70+0.662026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d19 1 QC1.81 [1.05, 2.42]1.99+0.91 [-0.13, 1.81]2.66 [1.44, 3.41]47% [20%, 62%]68%84%+0.69+0.662026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d19 1 QC1.81 [0.98, 2.47]1.99+0.91 [-0.30, 2.11]2.66 [1.30, 3.50]47% [0%, 64%]68%84%+0.69+0.662026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d19 1 QC1.81 [0.84, 2.48]1.99+0.91 [-0.48, 2.13]2.66 [1.09, 3.49]47% [0%, 65%]68%84%+0.69+0.662026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall19 1 QC1.81 [0.90, 2.47]1.99+0.91 [-0.42, 2.13]2.66 [1.17, 3.47]47% [0%, 67%]68%84%+0.69+0.662026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSP, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-07: +5.02 °F2026-08-13: +6.05 °F2026-08-14: +1.46 °F2026-08-15: +2.96 °F2026-08-16: -9.89 °F2026-08-17: -7.92 °F2026-08-18: +0.44 °F2026-08-19: -4.16 °F2026-08-20: -5.09 °F2026-08-21: -4.8 °F2026-08-22: -2.8 °F2026-08-23: -4.31 °F2026-08-24: -10.19 °F2026-08-25: +5.56 °F2026-08-26: -4.57 °F2026-08-27: -4.2 °F2026-08-28: -0.08 °F2026-08-29: -5.64 °F2026-08-30: -8.83 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-8.83
2026-08-29-5.64
2026-08-28-0.08
2026-08-27-4.20
2026-08-26-4.57
2026-08-25+5.56
2026-08-24-10.19
2026-08-23-4.31
2026-08-22-2.80
2026-08-21-4.80
2026-08-20-5.09
2026-08-19-4.16
2026-08-18+0.44
2026-08-17-7.92
2026-08-16-9.89
2026-08-15+2.96
2026-08-14+1.46
2026-08-13+6.05
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07+5.02

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSP, lead day 6-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 2 days-8 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -4 °F: 7 days-4 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 6 °F: 2 days6 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.8 · P90 |e| 9.04 °F-200+20 °Fn = 19 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.002
-8.00-6.001
-6.00-4.007
-4.00-2.001
-2.00+0.001
+0.00+2.002
+2.00+4.001
+4.00+6.002
+6.00+8.001
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08194.95 -2.68

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 19 -0.81 [-1.95, 1.64] no
NCEP GFS 19 +0.71 [-2.96, 2.38] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 -1.61 [-2.55, 1.76] no
Persistence (baseline) 19 +2.10 [0.51, 3.26] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSP ifs_hres lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSP (Minneapolis-St Paul), model ifs_hres, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence