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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Minneapolis-St Paul · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 4

KMSP · ifs_hres · lead 4

Target day = initialization date + 4 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d20 1 QC3.04 [2.61, 3.53]2.33-2.36 [-3.28, -1.67]3.62 [3.16, 4.03]15% [0%, 25%]40%45%+0.21+0.392026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d20 1 QC3.04 [2.55, 3.68]2.33-2.36 [-3.56, -1.69]3.62 [3.09, 4.13]15% [0%, 25%]40%45%+0.21+0.392026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d20 1 QC3.04 [2.55, 3.64]2.33-2.36 [-3.56, -1.68]3.62 [3.11, 4.08]15% [0%, 26%]40%45%+0.21+0.392026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall20 1 QC3.04 [2.52, 3.66]2.33-2.36 [-3.56, -1.62]3.62 [3.05, 4.11]15% [0%, 27%]40%45%+0.21+0.392026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d20 1 QC2.83 [2.15, 3.36]2.55-1.35 [-2.30, -0.34]3.44 [2.71, 3.91]15% [0%, 33%]45%55%+0.27+0.342026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d20 1 QC2.83 [1.84, 3.40]2.55-1.35 [-2.51, -0.28]3.44 [2.46, 3.95]15% [0%, 38%]45%55%+0.27+0.342026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d20 1 QC2.83 [1.82, 3.43]2.55-1.35 [-2.50, -0.27]3.44 [2.43, 3.92]15% [0%, 40%]45%55%+0.27+0.342026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall20 1 QC2.83 [1.60, 3.43]2.55-1.35 [-2.40, -0.24]3.44 [2.38, 3.96]15% [0%, 40%]45%55%+0.27+0.342026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC3.76 [2.94, 4.60]2.14-3.33 [-4.02, -2.74]4.26 [3.35, 5.04]0% [0%, 0%]24%43%+0.05+0.462026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC3.76 [2.79, 4.74]2.14-3.33 [-4.44, -2.71]4.26 [3.13, 5.13]0% [0%, 0%]24%43%+0.05+0.462026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC3.76 [2.74, 4.77]2.14-3.33 [-4.37, -2.64]4.26 [3.10, 5.16]0% [0%, 0%]24%43%+0.05+0.462026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall21 1 QC3.76 [2.74, 4.77]2.14-3.33 [-4.46, -2.60]4.26 [3.03, 5.14]0% [0%, 0%]24%43%+0.05+0.462026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d21 1 QC3.04 [1.92, 3.97]2.29-2.42 [-3.04, -1.66]3.69 [2.44, 4.53]24% [6%, 41%]43%57%+0.23+0.422026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d21 1 QC3.04 [1.69, 3.97]2.29-2.42 [-3.03, -1.67]3.69 [1.83, 4.53]24% [0%, 43%]43%57%+0.23+0.422026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d21 1 QC3.04 [1.69, 4.07]2.29-2.42 [-3.11, -1.64]3.69 [1.69, 4.63]24% [0%, 44%]43%57%+0.23+0.422026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall21 1 QC3.04 [1.65, 4.06]2.29-2.42 [-3.10, -1.52]3.69 [1.69, 4.61]24% [0%, 43%]43%57%+0.23+0.422026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d20 1 QC1.86 [1.10, 2.54]1.83+0.53 [-0.80, 1.38]2.37 [1.53, 3.01]35% [14%, 61%]50%80%+0.55+0.552026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d20 1 QC1.86 [0.72, 2.59]1.83+0.53 [-1.22, 1.38]2.37 [0.99, 3.05]35% [15%, 72%]50%80%+0.55+0.552026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d20 1 QC1.86 [0.60, 2.56]1.83+0.53 [-1.39, 1.38]2.37 [0.74, 3.06]35% [12%, 75%]50%80%+0.55+0.552026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall20 1 QC1.86 [0.53, 2.67]1.83+0.53 [-1.33, 1.35]2.37 [0.61, 3.12]35% [12%, 100%]50%80%+0.55+0.552026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d20 1 QC2.00 [1.46, 2.45]1.73+0.84 [-0.42, 1.58]2.43 [1.78, 3.00]40% [25%, 64%]45%80%+0.51+0.582026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d20 1 QC2.00 [1.23, 2.49]1.73+0.84 [-0.85, 1.63]2.43 [1.38, 3.05]40% [27%, 75%]45%80%+0.51+0.582026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d20 1 QC2.00 [1.19, 2.48]1.73+0.84 [-0.87, 1.66]2.43 [1.27, 3.05]40% [26%, 75%]45%80%+0.51+0.582026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall20 1 QC2.00 [0.89, 2.55]1.73+0.84 [-0.87, 1.58]2.43 [0.89, 3.11]40% [25%, 100%]45%80%+0.51+0.582026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d21 1 QC1.36 [0.82, 1.89]1.35-0.31 [-1.36, 0.34]1.82 [0.94, 2.52]57% [39%, 78%]76%90%+0.66+0.662026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d21 1 QC1.36 [0.75, 1.95]1.35-0.31 [-1.54, 0.38]1.82 [0.77, 2.54]57% [39%, 80%]76%90%+0.66+0.662026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d21 1 QC1.36 [0.73, 1.95]1.35-0.31 [-1.58, 0.36]1.82 [0.76, 2.57]57% [38%, 83%]76%90%+0.66+0.662026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall21 1 QC1.36 [0.72, 2.00]1.35-0.31 [-1.57, 0.33]1.82 [0.76, 2.59]57% [36%, 88%]76%90%+0.66+0.662026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d21 1 QC1.43 [0.90, 1.97]1.42-0.21 [-1.33, 0.51]1.87 [1.07, 2.54]57% [39%, 79%]71%90%+0.65+0.642026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d21 1 QC1.43 [0.78, 2.04]1.42-0.21 [-1.53, 0.56]1.87 [0.92, 2.55]57% [36%, 89%]71%90%+0.65+0.642026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d21 1 QC1.43 [0.78, 2.05]1.42-0.21 [-1.58, 0.56]1.87 [0.93, 2.60]57% [36%, 100%]71%90%+0.65+0.642026-08-05 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall21 1 QC1.43 [0.76, 2.09]1.42-0.21 [-1.60, 0.50]1.87 [0.89, 2.60]57% [37%, 100%]71%90%+0.65+0.642026-08-05 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSP, lead day 4, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-05: -3.56 °F2026-08-11: -4.91 °F2026-08-12: -4.77 °F2026-08-13: +3.56 °F2026-08-14: +0.37 °F2026-08-16: -1.85 °F2026-08-17: -3.08 °F2026-08-18: -3.9 °F2026-08-19: -4.7 °F2026-08-20: +0.12 °F2026-08-21: -7.45 °F2026-08-22: -2.36 °F2026-08-23: -0.5 °F2026-08-24: -4.65 °F2026-08-25: +1.12 °F2026-08-26: +1.6 °F2026-08-27: -5.01 °F2026-08-28: -1.22 °F2026-08-29: -4.96 °F2026-08-30: -1.14 °F2026-08-052026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (26 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.14
2026-08-29-4.96
2026-08-28-1.22
2026-08-27-5.01
2026-08-26+1.60
2026-08-25+1.12
2026-08-24-4.65
2026-08-23-0.50
2026-08-22-2.36
2026-08-21-7.45
2026-08-20+0.12
2026-08-19-4.70
2026-08-18-3.90
2026-08-17-3.08
2026-08-16-1.85
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14+0.37
2026-08-13+3.56
2026-08-12-4.77
2026-08-11-4.91
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05-3.56

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSP, lead day 4-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 5 days-4 to -3 °F: 3 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.32 · P90 |e| 4.96 °F-100+10 °Fn = 20 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.005
-4.00-3.003
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.002
+1.00+2.002
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08203.04 -2.36

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-05 → 2026-08-30 21

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 20 -1.34 [-1.95, -0.74] yes
NCEP GFS 20 -0.48 [-1.90, 2.23] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 -3.12 [-3.98, -2.33] yes
Persistence (baseline) 20 -0.81 [-3.15, 0.37] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSP ifs_hres lead 4, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/ifs_hres/lead/4/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSP (Minneapolis-St Paul), model ifs_hres, lead day 4. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/ifs_hres/lead/4/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence