Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Minneapolis-St Paul · NCEP GFS · lead day 1

KMSP · gfs · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d29 1 QC3.29 [2.65, 3.87]2.86+1.70 [0.39, 2.78]4.07 [3.30, 4.65]17% [7%, 30%]31%52%-0.29-0.122026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d29 1 QC3.29 [2.58, 3.86]2.86+1.70 [0.44, 2.98]4.07 [3.27, 4.61]17% [5%, 29%]31%52%-0.29-0.122026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d29 1 QC3.29 [2.44, 3.91]2.86+1.70 [0.26, 3.05]4.07 [3.17, 4.67]17% [0%, 31%]31%52%-0.29-0.122026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall29 1 QC3.29 [2.43, 3.92]2.86+1.70 [0.37, 2.97]4.07 [3.10, 4.66]17% [6%, 29%]31%52%-0.29-0.122026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d29 1 QC3.36 [2.52, 4.05]2.69+2.01 [0.62, 3.14]4.11 [3.13, 4.81]17% [3%, 31%]31%55%-0.32-0.052026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d29 1 QC3.36 [2.42, 4.04]2.69+2.01 [0.64, 3.15]4.11 [3.10, 4.72]17% [5%, 33%]31%55%-0.32-0.052026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d29 1 QC3.36 [2.28, 4.08]2.69+2.01 [0.52, 3.22]4.11 [2.82, 4.79]17% [5%, 36%]31%55%-0.32-0.052026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall29 1 QC3.36 [2.28, 4.09]2.69+2.01 [0.59, 3.22]4.11 [2.86, 4.79]17% [5%, 36%]31%55%-0.32-0.052026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d29 1 QC2.53 [1.86, 3.19]2.34+2.21 [1.46, 2.96]3.55 [2.72, 4.26]34% [21%, 48%]66%66%+0.01+0.082026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d29 1 QC2.53 [1.83, 3.32]2.34+2.21 [1.40, 3.15]3.55 [2.71, 4.34]34% [20%, 50%]66%66%+0.01+0.082026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d29 1 QC2.53 [1.78, 3.41]2.34+2.21 [1.38, 3.19]3.55 [2.60, 4.36]34% [20%, 53%]66%66%+0.01+0.082026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall29 1 QC2.53 [1.72, 3.39]2.34+2.21 [1.34, 3.17]3.55 [2.54, 4.50]34% [20%, 53%]66%66%+0.01+0.082026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d29 1 QC2.78 [2.09, 3.53]2.16+2.62 [1.90, 3.46]3.68 [2.87, 4.31]24% [10%, 38%]59%66%-0.09+0.152026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d29 1 QC2.78 [2.06, 3.67]2.16+2.62 [1.89, 3.50]3.68 [2.92, 4.38]24% [7%, 39%]59%66%-0.09+0.152026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d29 1 QC2.78 [2.03, 3.68]2.16+2.62 [1.84, 3.49]3.68 [2.80, 4.45]24% [0%, 41%]59%66%-0.09+0.152026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall29 1 QC2.78 [2.03, 3.69]2.16+2.62 [1.88, 3.56]3.68 [2.74, 4.52]24% [7%, 39%]59%66%-0.09+0.152026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d29 1 QC2.28 [2.02, 2.57]2.25-0.29 [-1.11, 0.67]2.72 [2.45, 3.04]24% [14%, 34%]52%76%+0.38+0.392026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d29 1 QC2.28 [2.05, 2.61]2.25-0.29 [-1.29, 0.73]2.72 [2.45, 3.05]24% [12%, 33%]52%76%+0.38+0.392026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d29 1 QC2.28 [2.02, 2.60]2.25-0.29 [-1.38, 0.72]2.72 [2.43, 3.07]24% [11%, 33%]52%76%+0.38+0.392026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall29 1 QC2.28 [2.01, 2.66]2.25-0.29 [-1.34, 0.71]2.72 [2.43, 3.07]24% [12%, 33%]52%76%+0.38+0.392026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d29 1 QC2.62 [2.19, 3.09]2.52+0.90 [-0.02, 1.99]3.10 [2.54, 3.74]21% [7%, 33%]38%55%+0.29+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d29 1 QC2.62 [2.08, 3.13]2.52+0.90 [-0.21, 2.02]3.10 [2.46, 3.77]21% [9%, 35%]38%55%+0.29+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d29 1 QC2.62 [2.10, 3.12]2.52+0.90 [-0.36, 2.02]3.10 [2.47, 3.74]21% [7%, 36%]38%55%+0.29+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall29 1 QC2.62 [2.06, 3.12]2.52+0.90 [-0.31, 2.00]3.10 [2.48, 3.75]21% [7%, 37%]38%55%+0.29+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d29 1 QC1.84 [1.35, 2.36]1.85-0.08 [-0.77, 0.70]2.19 [1.62, 2.71]28% [11%, 48%]55%79%+0.50+0.502026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d29 1 QC1.84 [1.27, 2.37]1.85-0.08 [-0.91, 0.72]2.19 [1.53, 2.71]28% [10%, 50%]55%79%+0.50+0.502026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d29 1 QC1.84 [1.30, 2.38]1.85-0.08 [-0.96, 0.68]2.19 [1.52, 2.73]28% [8%, 50%]55%79%+0.50+0.502026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall29 1 QC1.84 [1.25, 2.37]1.85-0.08 [-0.93, 0.71]2.19 [1.51, 2.70]28% [8%, 50%]55%79%+0.50+0.502026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d29 1 QC2.16 [1.51, 2.84]2.04+1.13 [0.42, 1.87]2.68 [1.97, 3.42]28% [10%, 46%]52%72%+0.42+0.452026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d29 1 QC2.16 [1.33, 2.82]2.04+1.13 [0.35, 1.89]2.68 [1.82, 3.39]28% [9%, 50%]52%72%+0.42+0.452026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d29 1 QC2.16 [1.41, 2.85]2.04+1.13 [0.24, 1.85]2.68 [1.86, 3.40]28% [8%, 50%]52%72%+0.42+0.452026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall29 1 QC2.16 [1.21, 2.86]2.04+1.13 [0.32, 1.88]2.68 [1.70, 3.40]28% [7%, 56%]52%72%+0.42+0.452026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KMSP, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-02: -2.22 °F2026-08-03: +0.29 °F2026-08-04: +3.51 °F2026-08-05: +1.04 °F2026-08-06: +3.44 °F2026-08-07: +6.67 °F2026-08-08: +5.28 °F2026-08-09: -3.52 °F2026-08-10: +2.98 °F2026-08-11: +0.46 °F2026-08-12: +1.03 °F2026-08-13: +7.42 °F2026-08-14: +4.45 °F2026-08-15: -8.84 °F2026-08-16: -2.3 °F2026-08-17: +0.51 °F2026-08-18: -3.96 °F2026-08-19: +2.31 °F2026-08-20: +6.37 °F2026-08-21: +0.8 °F2026-08-22: +0.31 °F2026-08-23: +1.28 °F2026-08-24: -2.13 °F2026-08-25: +8.19 °F2026-08-26: +2.21 °F2026-08-27: +1.41 °F2026-08-28: +5.19 °F2026-08-29: +3.79 °F2026-08-30: +3.47 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+3.47
2026-08-29+3.79
2026-08-28+5.19
2026-08-27+1.41
2026-08-26+2.21
2026-08-25+8.19
2026-08-24-2.13
2026-08-23+1.28
2026-08-22+0.31
2026-08-21+0.80
2026-08-20+6.37
2026-08-19+2.31
2026-08-18-3.96
2026-08-17+0.51
2026-08-16-2.30
2026-08-15-8.84
2026-08-14+4.45
2026-08-13+7.42
2026-08-12+1.03
2026-08-11+0.46
2026-08-10+2.98
2026-08-09-3.52
2026-08-08+5.28
2026-08-07+6.67
2026-08-06+3.44
2026-08-05+1.04
2026-08-04+3.51
2026-08-03+0.29
2026-08-02-2.22

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KMSP, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 5 days1 to 2 °F: 4 days2 to 3 °F: 3 days3 to 4 °F: 4 days4 to 5 °F: 1 day5 to 6 °F: 2 days6 to 7 °F: 2 days7 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 9 °F: 1 day9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.98 · P90 |e| 6.82 °F-100+10 °Fn = 29 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.005
+1.00+2.004
+2.00+3.003
+3.00+4.004
+4.00+5.001
+5.00+6.002
+6.00+7.002
+7.00+8.001
+8.00+9.001
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08293.29 +1.70

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
NCEP GFS2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
NCEP GFS2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
NCEP GFS2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 29 -0.39 [-1.25, 0.40] no
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -4.64 [-4.64, -4.64] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -2.92 [-3.19, -2.65] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -2.54 [-2.54, -2.54] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -2.78 [-2.91, -2.66] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -4.13 [-4.13, -4.13] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 27 -3.04 [-4.22, -1.97] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 23 -0.55 [-2.16, 0.32] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +2.93 [2.93, 2.93] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 -0.94 [-3.15, 1.27] no
Persistence (baseline) 29 +0.74 [-0.20, 1.82] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSP gfs lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/gfs/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSP (Minneapolis-St Paul), model gfs, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/gfs/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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