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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Minneapolis-St Paul · Pangu-Weather (IFS init) · lead day 1

KMSP · pangu_ifs · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, PANG_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d2 1 QC4.57 [2.20, 6.93]2.37-4.57 [-6.93, -2.20]5.14 [2.20, 6.93]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-2.04-0.582026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d2 1 QC4.57 [2.20, 6.93]2.37-4.57 [-6.93, -2.20]5.14 [2.20, 6.93]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-2.04-0.582026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d2 1 QC4.57 [2.20, 6.93]2.37-4.57 [-6.93, -2.20]5.14 [2.20, 6.93]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-2.04-0.582026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall2 1 QC4.57 [2.20, 6.93]2.37-4.57 [-6.93, -2.20]5.14 [2.20, 6.93]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-2.04-0.582026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d2 1 QC4.67 [2.51, 6.83]2.16-4.67 [-6.83, -2.51]5.15 [2.51, 6.83]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-2.11-0.442026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d2 1 QC4.67 [2.51, 6.83]2.16-4.67 [-6.83, -2.51]5.15 [2.51, 6.83]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-2.11-0.442026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d2 1 QC4.67 [2.51, 6.83]2.16-4.67 [-6.83, -2.51]5.15 [2.51, 6.83]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-2.11-0.442026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall2 1 QC4.67 [2.51, 6.83]2.16-4.67 [-6.83, -2.51]5.15 [2.51, 6.83]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-2.11-0.442026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC4.77 [2.06, 7.47]2.71-4.77 [-7.47, -2.06]5.48 [2.06, 7.47]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-2.18-0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC4.77 [2.06, 7.47]2.71-4.77 [-7.47, -2.06]5.48 [2.06, 7.47]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-2.18-0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC4.77 [2.06, 7.47]2.71-4.77 [-7.47, -2.06]5.48 [2.06, 7.47]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-2.18-0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall2 1 QC4.77 [2.06, 7.47]2.71-4.77 [-7.47, -2.06]5.48 [2.06, 7.47]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-2.18-0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d2 1 QC4.99 [2.36, 7.63]2.64-4.99 [-7.63, -2.36]5.64 [2.36, 7.63]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-2.33-0.762026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d2 1 QC4.99 [2.36, 7.63]2.64-4.99 [-7.63, -2.36]5.64 [2.36, 7.63]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-2.33-0.762026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d2 1 QC4.99 [2.36, 7.63]2.64-4.99 [-7.63, -2.36]5.64 [2.36, 7.63]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-2.33-0.762026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall2 1 QC4.99 [2.36, 7.63]2.64-4.99 [-7.63, -2.36]5.64 [2.36, 7.63]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-2.33-0.762026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d2 1 QC1.36 [1.33, 1.40]0.04-1.36 [-1.40, -1.33]1.36 [1.33, 1.40]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.73+0.992026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d2 1 QC1.36 [1.33, 1.40]0.04-1.36 [-1.40, -1.33]1.36 [1.33, 1.40]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.73+0.992026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d2 1 QC1.36 [1.33, 1.40]0.04-1.36 [-1.40, -1.33]1.36 [1.33, 1.40]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.73+0.992026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall2 1 QC1.36 [1.33, 1.40]0.04-1.36 [-1.40, -1.33]1.36 [1.33, 1.40]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.73+0.992026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d2 1 QC1.50 [1.32, 1.67]0.18-1.50 [-1.67, -1.32]1.51 [1.32, 1.67]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.70+0.942026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d2 1 QC1.50 [1.32, 1.67]0.18-1.50 [-1.67, -1.32]1.51 [1.32, 1.67]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.70+0.942026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d2 1 QC1.50 [1.32, 1.67]0.18-1.50 [-1.67, -1.32]1.51 [1.32, 1.67]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.70+0.942026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall2 1 QC1.50 [1.32, 1.67]0.18-1.50 [-1.67, -1.32]1.51 [1.32, 1.67]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.70+0.942026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC0.98 [0.17, 1.79]0.81-0.98 [-1.79, -0.17]1.27 [0.17, 1.79]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.80+0.732026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC0.98 [0.17, 1.79]0.81-0.98 [-1.79, -0.17]1.27 [0.17, 1.79]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.80+0.732026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC0.98 [0.17, 1.79]0.81-0.98 [-1.79, -0.17]1.27 [0.17, 1.79]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.80+0.732026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall2 1 QC0.98 [0.17, 1.79]0.81-0.98 [-1.79, -0.17]1.27 [0.17, 1.79]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.80+0.732026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d2 1 QC1.20 [0.25, 2.16]0.96-1.20 [-2.16, -0.25]1.54 [0.25, 2.16]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.76+0.682026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d2 1 QC1.20 [0.25, 2.16]0.96-1.20 [-2.16, -0.25]1.54 [0.25, 2.16]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.76+0.682026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d2 1 QC1.20 [0.25, 2.16]0.96-1.20 [-2.16, -0.25]1.54 [0.25, 2.16]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.76+0.682026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall2 1 QC1.20 [0.25, 2.16]0.96-1.20 [-2.16, -0.25]1.54 [0.25, 2.16]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.76+0.682026-08-29 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Pangu-Weather (IFS init) at KMSP, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-29: -6.93 °F2026-08-30: -2.2 °F2026-08-292026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (2 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.20
2026-08-29-6.93

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Pangu-Weather (IFS init) at KMSP, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.57 · P90 |e| 6.46 °F-100+10 °Fn = 2 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.000
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0824.57 -4.57

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Pangu-Weather (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Pangu-Weather (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 2 -0.54 [-1.47, 0.40] no
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -5.91 [-5.91, -5.91] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -1.98 [-3.92, -0.04] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -3.81 [-3.81, -3.81] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -1.85 [-3.93, 0.24] no
NCEP GFS 2 +0.94 [-1.27, 3.15] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -5.41 [-5.41, -5.41] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 2 -2.52 [-3.83, -1.20] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 2 +0.21 [-1.25, 1.66] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +1.66 [1.66, 1.66] yes
Persistence (baseline) 2 +3.07 [-0.80, 6.93] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSP pangu_ifs lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/pangu_ifs/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSP (Minneapolis-St Paul), model pangu_ifs, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/pangu_ifs/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence