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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Minneapolis-St Paul · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 1

KMSP · aifs_single · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d29 1 QC3.68 [3.01, 4.28]1.50-3.60 [-4.27, -2.87]4.14 [3.41, 4.68]10% [3%, 18%]24%28%-0.44+0.412026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d29 1 QC3.68 [2.90, 4.35]1.50-3.60 [-4.32, -2.75]4.14 [3.26, 4.76]10% [0%, 18%]24%28%-0.44+0.412026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d29 1 QC3.68 [2.93, 4.43]1.50-3.60 [-4.40, -2.78]4.14 [3.29, 4.83]10% [0%, 19%]24%28%-0.44+0.412026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall29 1 QC3.68 [2.90, 4.41]1.50-3.60 [-4.37, -2.73]4.14 [3.32, 4.76]10% [0%, 20%]24%28%-0.44+0.412026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d29 1 QC3.60 [2.83, 4.28]1.61-3.50 [-4.24, -2.64]4.09 [3.30, 4.67]17% [4%, 33%]21%34%-0.41+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d29 1 QC3.60 [2.62, 4.41]1.61-3.50 [-4.36, -2.45]4.09 [3.07, 4.80]17% [0%, 33%]21%34%-0.41+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d29 1 QC3.60 [2.66, 4.52]1.61-3.50 [-4.44, -2.50]4.09 [3.13, 4.92]17% [0%, 33%]21%34%-0.41+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall29 1 QC3.60 [2.67, 4.43]1.61-3.50 [-4.38, -2.45]4.09 [3.13, 4.80]17% [0%, 34%]21%34%-0.41+0.372026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d29 1 QC3.25 [2.55, 3.88]1.66-2.90 [-3.58, -2.23]3.68 [3.01, 4.17]17% [3%, 31%]24%38%-0.27+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d29 1 QC3.25 [2.45, 3.99]1.66-2.90 [-3.73, -2.17]3.68 [2.84, 4.30]17% [0%, 30%]24%38%-0.27+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d29 1 QC3.25 [2.43, 4.04]1.66-2.90 [-3.84, -2.23]3.68 [2.88, 4.40]17% [0%, 30%]24%38%-0.27+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall29 1 QC3.25 [2.42, 4.03]1.66-2.90 [-3.65, -2.20]3.68 [2.88, 4.30]17% [0%, 32%]24%38%-0.27+0.352026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d29 1 QC3.18 [2.38, 3.89]1.75-2.76 [-3.56, -1.96]3.64 [2.87, 4.19]21% [7%, 37%]24%41%-0.25+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d29 1 QC3.18 [2.17, 4.02]1.75-2.76 [-3.78, -1.87]3.64 [2.64, 4.34]21% [3%, 37%]24%41%-0.25+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d29 1 QC3.18 [2.21, 4.10]1.75-2.76 [-3.88, -1.93]3.64 [2.69, 4.46]21% [0%, 36%]24%41%-0.25+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall29 1 QC3.18 [2.19, 4.05]1.75-2.76 [-3.69, -1.89]3.64 [2.70, 4.35]21% [0%, 39%]24%41%-0.25+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d29 1 QC2.64 [2.08, 3.16]1.81-2.27 [-2.78, -1.57]3.14 [2.59, 3.60]24% [13%, 36%]34%55%+0.28+0.512026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d29 1 QC2.64 [2.02, 3.27]1.81-2.27 [-2.87, -1.58]3.14 [2.57, 3.67]24% [12%, 40%]34%55%+0.28+0.512026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d29 1 QC2.64 [1.97, 3.22]1.81-2.27 [-2.87, -1.47]3.14 [2.52, 3.63]24% [13%, 42%]34%55%+0.28+0.512026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall29 1 QC2.64 [2.00, 3.26]1.81-2.27 [-2.86, -1.56]3.14 [2.55, 3.65]24% [11%, 40%]34%55%+0.28+0.512026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d29 1 QC2.77 [2.25, 3.24]1.77-2.41 [-2.90, -1.77]3.24 [2.73, 3.66]21% [10%, 33%]31%55%+0.25+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d29 1 QC2.77 [2.20, 3.33]1.77-2.41 [-2.95, -1.80]3.24 [2.70, 3.73]21% [9%, 38%]31%55%+0.25+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d29 1 QC2.77 [2.16, 3.29]1.77-2.41 [-2.98, -1.66]3.24 [2.64, 3.71]21% [10%, 39%]31%55%+0.25+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall29 1 QC2.77 [2.16, 3.30]1.77-2.41 [-2.95, -1.73]3.24 [2.67, 3.70]21% [10%, 36%]31%55%+0.25+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d29 1 QC2.75 [2.18, 3.26]1.84-2.36 [-2.90, -1.65]3.22 [2.69, 3.62]24% [13%, 38%]28%55%+0.26+0.502026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d29 1 QC2.75 [2.10, 3.32]1.84-2.36 [-2.98, -1.67]3.22 [2.62, 3.66]24% [11%, 41%]28%55%+0.26+0.502026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d29 1 QC2.75 [2.10, 3.28]1.84-2.36 [-2.97, -1.61]3.22 [2.59, 3.65]24% [12%, 43%]28%55%+0.26+0.502026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall29 1 QC2.75 [2.06, 3.31]1.84-2.36 [-2.96, -1.62]3.22 [2.58, 3.64]24% [11%, 42%]28%55%+0.26+0.502026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d29 1 QC2.84 [2.33, 3.34]1.78-2.49 [-2.99, -1.84]3.32 [2.81, 3.73]17% [10%, 27%]28%55%+0.23+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d29 1 QC2.84 [2.27, 3.38]1.78-2.49 [-3.08, -1.85]3.32 [2.73, 3.76]17% [8%, 26%]28%55%+0.23+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d29 1 QC2.84 [2.25, 3.34]1.78-2.49 [-3.04, -1.77]3.32 [2.71, 3.74]17% [9%, 27%]28%55%+0.23+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall29 1 QC2.84 [2.21, 3.36]1.78-2.49 [-3.05, -1.78]3.32 [2.72, 3.73]17% [9%, 26%]28%55%+0.23+0.522026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSP, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-02: -3.76 °F2026-08-03: -2.5 °F2026-08-04: -3.28 °F2026-08-05: -3.35 °F2026-08-06: -1.35 °F2026-08-07: +0.69 °F2026-08-08: -1.18 °F2026-08-09: -5.36 °F2026-08-10: -4.26 °F2026-08-11: -3.65 °F2026-08-12: -4.32 °F2026-08-13: -1.22 °F2026-08-14: -3.79 °F2026-08-15: -3.92 °F2026-08-16: -5.65 °F2026-08-17: -5.55 °F2026-08-18: -6.79 °F2026-08-19: -3.94 °F2026-08-20: -0.91 °F2026-08-21: -3.72 °F2026-08-22: -1.97 °F2026-08-23: -3.2 °F2026-08-24: -8.62 °F2026-08-25: +0.42 °F2026-08-26: -4.28 °F2026-08-27: -4.42 °F2026-08-28: -4.45 °F2026-08-29: -6.53 °F2026-08-30: -3.67 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.67
2026-08-29-6.53
2026-08-28-4.45
2026-08-27-4.42
2026-08-26-4.28
2026-08-25+0.42
2026-08-24-8.62
2026-08-23-3.20
2026-08-22-1.97
2026-08-21-3.72
2026-08-20-0.91
2026-08-19-3.94
2026-08-18-6.79
2026-08-17-5.55
2026-08-16-5.65
2026-08-15-3.92
2026-08-14-3.79
2026-08-13-1.22
2026-08-12-4.32
2026-08-11-3.65
2026-08-10-4.26
2026-08-09-5.36
2026-08-08-1.18
2026-08-07+0.69
2026-08-06-1.35
2026-08-05-3.35
2026-08-04-3.28
2026-08-03-2.50
2026-08-02-3.76

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSP, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 3 days-5 to -4 °F: 5 days-4 to -3 °F: 10 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 4 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.76 · P90 |e| 5.82 °F-100+10 °Fn = 29 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.003
-5.00-4.005
-4.00-3.0010
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.004
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.002
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08293.68 -3.60

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -4.44 [-4.44, -4.44] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -1.44 [-2.45, -0.44] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -2.33 [-2.33, -2.33] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -1.31 [-2.45, -0.17] yes
NCEP GFS 29 +0.39 [-0.40, 1.25] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -3.93 [-3.93, -3.93] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 27 -2.70 [-3.22, -2.04] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 23 +0.29 [-0.82, 0.95] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +3.13 [3.13, 3.13] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 +0.54 [-0.40, 1.47] no
Persistence (baseline) 29 +1.13 [-0.11, 2.53] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSP aifs_single lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/aifs_single/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSP (Minneapolis-St Paul), model aifs_single, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/aifs_single/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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