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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Minneapolis-St Paul · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 1

KMSP · ifs_hres · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC3.82 [3.31, 4.54]2.18-2.78 [-4.11, -1.85]4.19 [3.65, 4.96]0% [0%, 0%]22%39%-0.57+0.112026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC3.82 [3.32, 4.84]2.18-2.78 [-4.49, -1.82]4.19 [3.62, 5.32]0% [0%, 0%]22%39%-0.57+0.112026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC3.82 [3.33, 4.72]2.18-2.78 [-4.38, -1.78]4.19 [3.66, 5.21]0% [0%, 0%]22%39%-0.57+0.112026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC3.82 [3.30, 5.00]2.18-2.78 [-4.68, -1.77]4.19 [3.64, 5.48]0% [0%, 0%]22%39%-0.57+0.112026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC3.04 [2.35, 3.87]2.45-1.72 [-3.25, -0.47]3.73 [3.04, 4.45]26% [8%, 48%]35%48%-0.25+0.002026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC3.04 [2.34, 4.21]2.45-1.72 [-3.80, -0.41]3.73 [2.96, 4.74]26% [6%, 50%]35%48%-0.25+0.002026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC3.04 [2.38, 4.04]2.45-1.72 [-3.62, -0.32]3.73 [3.05, 4.66]26% [0%, 52%]35%48%-0.25+0.002026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC3.04 [2.31, 4.45]2.45-1.72 [-4.09, -0.38]3.73 [3.03, 5.01]26% [5%, 50%]35%48%-0.25+0.002026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC4.11 [3.69, 4.65]2.23-3.64 [-4.58, -2.71]4.64 [4.22, 5.10]12% [4%, 21%]21%33%-0.73+0.072026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC4.11 [3.71, 4.82]2.23-3.64 [-4.74, -2.69]4.64 [4.21, 5.27]12% [0%, 21%]21%33%-0.73+0.072026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC4.11 [3.68, 4.79]2.23-3.64 [-4.70, -2.61]4.64 [4.21, 5.27]12% [0%, 21%]21%33%-0.73+0.072026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC4.11 [3.67, 4.84]2.23-3.64 [-4.82, -2.65]4.64 [4.20, 5.26]12% [0%, 21%]21%33%-0.73+0.072026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC3.28 [2.87, 3.81]2.40-2.57 [-3.71, -1.47]3.98 [3.56, 4.37]12% [4%, 20%]46%46%-0.38-0.002026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC3.28 [2.89, 3.98]2.40-2.57 [-3.87, -1.42]3.98 [3.54, 4.53]12% [0%, 20%]46%46%-0.38-0.002026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC3.28 [2.90, 3.91]2.40-2.57 [-3.85, -1.37]3.98 [3.52, 4.50]12% [0%, 20%]46%46%-0.38-0.002026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC3.28 [2.85, 4.09]2.40-2.57 [-4.07, -1.44]3.98 [3.56, 4.57]12% [0%, 21%]46%46%-0.38-0.002026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC1.47 [0.96, 2.06]1.48+0.04 [-1.01, 0.83]1.87 [1.23, 2.43]43% [18%, 66%]70%87%+0.61+0.612026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC1.47 [0.91, 2.22]1.48+0.04 [-1.56, 0.85]1.87 [1.14, 2.50]43% [7%, 71%]70%87%+0.61+0.612026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC1.47 [0.81, 2.23]1.48+0.04 [-1.59, 0.85]1.87 [1.00, 2.56]43% [6%, 75%]70%87%+0.61+0.612026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC1.47 [0.84, 2.24]1.48+0.04 [-1.55, 0.90]1.87 [1.07, 2.52]43% [6%, 75%]70%87%+0.61+0.612026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC1.50 [0.99, 2.05]1.54+0.29 [-0.76, 1.10]1.94 [1.23, 2.53]48% [25%, 68%]65%83%+0.60+0.602026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC1.50 [0.90, 2.12]1.54+0.29 [-1.35, 1.12]1.94 [1.11, 2.57]48% [15%, 75%]65%83%+0.60+0.602026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC1.50 [0.80, 2.16]1.54+0.29 [-1.39, 1.07]1.94 [0.98, 2.64]48% [14%, 79%]65%83%+0.60+0.602026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC1.50 [0.88, 2.12]1.54+0.29 [-1.44, 1.13]1.94 [1.08, 2.58]48% [14%, 77%]65%83%+0.60+0.602026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC1.53 [0.93, 2.05]1.55-0.25 [-1.05, 0.39]1.86 [1.31, 2.24]33% [10%, 58%]58%92%+0.60+0.602026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC1.53 [0.75, 2.09]1.55-0.25 [-1.30, 0.42]1.86 [1.11, 2.28]33% [0%, 67%]58%92%+0.60+0.602026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC1.53 [0.63, 2.10]1.55-0.25 [-1.23, 0.45]1.86 [0.96, 2.27]33% [0%, 71%]58%92%+0.60+0.602026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC1.53 [0.72, 2.12]1.55-0.25 [-1.30, 0.44]1.86 [1.08, 2.29]33% [0%, 67%]58%92%+0.60+0.602026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC1.60 [0.91, 2.15]1.60+0.00 [-0.82, 0.67]1.95 [1.22, 2.38]38% [13%, 65%]62%83%+0.58+0.582026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC1.60 [0.72, 2.19]1.60+0.00 [-1.08, 0.65]1.95 [0.95, 2.39]38% [6%, 71%]62%83%+0.58+0.582026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC1.60 [0.59, 2.20]1.60+0.00 [-0.98, 0.71]1.95 [0.81, 2.40]38% [5%, 79%]62%83%+0.58+0.582026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC1.60 [0.69, 2.19]1.60+0.00 [-1.00, 0.68]1.95 [0.93, 2.40]38% [4%, 73%]62%83%+0.58+0.582026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSP, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-02: -7.69 °F2026-08-09: -3.84 °F2026-08-10: -1.55 °F2026-08-11: -2.59 °F2026-08-12: -2.94 °F2026-08-13: +7.04 °F2026-08-14: -1.97 °F2026-08-15: -2.08 °F2026-08-16: -4.98 °F2026-08-17: -4.97 °F2026-08-18: -4.65 °F2026-08-19: -2.76 °F2026-08-20: +3.3 °F2026-08-21: -6.82 °F2026-08-22: -1.99 °F2026-08-23: -3.3 °F2026-08-24: -4.22 °F2026-08-25: +1.61 °F2026-08-26: -4.04 °F2026-08-27: -5.01 °F2026-08-28: -1.73 °F2026-08-29: -5.27 °F2026-08-30: -3.45 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.45
2026-08-29-5.27
2026-08-28-1.73
2026-08-27-5.01
2026-08-26-4.04
2026-08-25+1.61
2026-08-24-4.22
2026-08-23-3.30
2026-08-22-1.99
2026-08-21-6.82
2026-08-20+3.30
2026-08-19-2.76
2026-08-18-4.65
2026-08-17-4.97
2026-08-16-4.98
2026-08-15-2.08
2026-08-14-1.97
2026-08-13+7.04
2026-08-12-2.94
2026-08-11-2.59
2026-08-10-1.55
2026-08-09-3.84
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02-7.69

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSP, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 5 days-4 to -3 °F: 3 days-3 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1 °F: 4 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.45 · P90 |e| 6.51 °F-100+10 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.005
-4.00-3.003
-3.00-2.004
-2.00-1.004
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.001
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08233.82 -2.78

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 23 -0.29 [-0.95, 0.82] no
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -4.67 [-4.67, -4.67] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -2.19 [-2.67, -1.70] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -2.56 [-2.56, -2.56] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -2.05 [-2.68, -1.43] yes
NCEP GFS 23 +0.55 [-0.32, 2.16] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -4.16 [-4.16, -4.16] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 -3.10 [-4.07, -1.90] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +2.90 [2.90, 2.90] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 -0.21 [-1.66, 1.25] no
Persistence (baseline) 23 +1.38 [0.28, 2.98] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSP ifs_hres lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSP (Minneapolis-St Paul), model ifs_hres, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence