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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Minneapolis-St Paul · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 9

KMSP · ifs_hres · lead 9

Target day = initialization date + 9 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d16 1 QC5.64 [3.90, 8.25]5.12-3.42 [-8.19, -0.99]7.04 [4.60, 9.54]6% [0%, 19%]25%44%-0.92-0.742026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d16 1 QC5.64 [3.88, 8.69]5.12-3.42 [-8.56, -0.97]7.04 [4.55, 9.72]6% [0%, 18%]25%44%-0.92-0.742026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d16 1 QC5.64 [3.73, 9.15]5.12-3.42 [-9.15, -0.82]7.04 [4.47, 10.15]6% [0%, 20%]25%44%-0.92-0.742026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall16 1 QC5.64 [3.73, 9.07]5.12-3.42 [-8.97, -0.50]7.04 [4.32, 10.23]6% [0%, 20%]25%44%-0.92-0.742026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d16 1 QC5.52 [3.68, 8.16]5.12-3.10 [-7.78, -0.62]7.04 [4.30, 9.92]6% [0%, 19%]25%38%-0.88-0.742026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d16 1 QC5.52 [3.64, 8.48]5.12-3.10 [-8.11, -0.59]7.04 [4.19, 10.05]6% [0%, 18%]25%38%-0.88-0.742026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d16 1 QC5.52 [3.59, 8.91]5.12-3.10 [-8.80, -0.45]7.04 [4.10, 10.38]6% [0%, 20%]25%38%-0.88-0.742026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall16 1 QC5.52 [3.56, 8.97]5.12-3.10 [-8.72, -0.09]7.04 [4.07, 10.58]6% [0%, 20%]25%38%-0.88-0.742026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d15 1 QC3.74 [2.73, 5.07]2.62-3.57 [-5.06, -2.61]4.62 [3.46, 5.80]20% [6%, 38%]40%47%-0.34+0.072026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d15 1 QC3.74 [2.70, 5.35]2.62-3.57 [-5.35, -2.56]4.62 [3.45, 5.99]20% [0%, 38%]40%47%-0.34+0.072026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d15 1 QC3.74 [2.63, 5.33]2.62-3.57 [-5.33, -2.49]4.62 [3.33, 5.99]20% [0%, 38%]40%47%-0.34+0.072026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall15 1 QC3.74 [2.64, 5.42]2.62-3.57 [-5.42, -2.47]4.62 [3.38, 6.05]20% [0%, 40%]40%47%-0.34+0.072026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d15 1 QC3.14 [2.11, 4.62]2.66-2.64 [-4.52, -1.40]4.02 [2.60, 5.46]27% [0%, 43%]40%53%-0.12+0.062026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d15 1 QC3.14 [2.12, 4.89]2.66-2.64 [-4.89, -1.43]4.02 [2.60, 5.67]27% [0%, 43%]40%53%-0.12+0.062026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d15 1 QC3.14 [2.05, 4.87]2.66-2.64 [-4.84, -1.34]4.02 [2.46, 5.69]27% [0%, 45%]40%53%-0.12+0.062026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall15 1 QC3.14 [2.02, 5.02]2.66-2.64 [-4.93, -1.25]4.02 [2.50, 5.73]27% [0%, 46%]40%53%-0.12+0.062026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d16 1 QC5.51 [4.16, 6.50]5.09+1.55 [-3.94, 5.08]6.72 [5.22, 7.71]6% [0%, 19%]25%38%-0.05+0.032026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d16 1 QC5.51 [3.91, 6.52]5.09+1.55 [-4.39, 5.39]6.72 [3.91, 7.75]6% [0%, 18%]25%38%-0.05+0.032026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d16 1 QC5.51 [3.91, 6.52]5.09+1.55 [-4.87, 5.51]6.72 [3.91, 7.75]6% [0%, 20%]25%38%-0.05+0.032026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall16 1 QC5.51 [3.91, 6.57]5.09+1.55 [-4.47, 5.45]6.72 [3.91, 7.70]6% [0%, 20%]25%38%-0.05+0.032026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d16 1 QC5.72 [4.39, 6.73]5.21+1.73 [-3.99, 5.29]6.89 [5.35, 7.90]0% [0%, 0%]19%38%-0.09+0.012026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d16 1 QC5.72 [3.97, 6.74]5.21+1.73 [-4.46, 5.58]6.89 [3.97, 7.90]0% [0%, 0%]19%38%-0.09+0.012026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d16 1 QC5.72 [3.97, 6.76]5.21+1.73 [-4.93, 5.74]6.89 [3.97, 7.92]0% [0%, 0%]19%38%-0.09+0.012026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall16 1 QC5.72 [3.97, 6.78]5.21+1.73 [-4.54, 5.65]6.89 [3.97, 7.92]0% [0%, 0%]19%38%-0.09+0.012026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d15 1 QC3.62 [2.43, 4.60]3.66+0.13 [-2.72, 2.63]4.28 [2.72, 5.23]7% [0%, 22%]33%40%+0.32+0.332026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d15 1 QC3.62 [1.77, 4.66]3.66+0.13 [-2.95, 2.79]4.28 [1.93, 5.30]7% [0%, 24%]33%40%+0.32+0.332026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d15 1 QC3.62 [1.77, 4.67]3.66+0.13 [-2.96, 2.98]4.28 [2.07, 5.32]7% [0%, 25%]33%40%+0.32+0.332026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall15 1 QC3.62 [1.77, 4.74]3.66+0.13 [-2.99, 2.82]4.28 [2.14, 5.32]7% [0%, 25%]33%40%+0.32+0.332026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d15 1 QC3.52 [2.25, 4.57]3.63+0.55 [-2.39, 3.12]4.36 [2.52, 5.46]20% [0%, 31%]40%47%+0.34+0.342026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d15 1 QC3.52 [1.66, 4.64]3.63+0.55 [-2.68, 3.27]4.36 [1.82, 5.54]20% [0%, 31%]40%47%+0.34+0.342026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d15 1 QC3.52 [1.77, 4.66]3.63+0.55 [-2.55, 3.50]4.36 [2.00, 5.54]20% [0%, 33%]40%47%+0.34+0.342026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall15 1 QC3.52 [1.78, 4.70]3.63+0.55 [-2.70, 3.29]4.36 [2.00, 5.55]20% [0%, 33%]40%47%+0.34+0.342026-08-10 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSP, lead day 9, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-10: -6.53 °F2026-08-16: -7.34 °F2026-08-17: -16.72 °F2026-08-18: -0.43 °F2026-08-19: +2.8 °F2026-08-20: +7.48 °F2026-08-21: -6.62 °F2026-08-22: +2.49 °F2026-08-23: -1.37 °F2026-08-24: -2.07 °F2026-08-25: -1.82 °F2026-08-26: +4.92 °F2026-08-27: -6.85 °F2026-08-28: -1.84 °F2026-08-29: -11.04 °F2026-08-30: -9.86 °F2026-08-102026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (21 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-9.86
2026-08-29-11.04
2026-08-28-1.84
2026-08-27-6.85
2026-08-26+4.92
2026-08-25-1.82
2026-08-24-2.07
2026-08-23-1.37
2026-08-22+2.49
2026-08-21-6.62
2026-08-20+7.48
2026-08-19+2.80
2026-08-18-0.43
2026-08-17-16.72
2026-08-16-7.34
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14—
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10-6.53

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSP, lead day 9-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 1 day-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -6 °F: 4 days-6 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to 0 °F: 4 days0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 5.72 · P90 |e| 10.45 °F-200+20 °Fn = 16 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.001
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.001
-8.00-6.004
-6.00-4.000
-4.00-2.001
-2.00+0.004
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.002
+4.00+6.001
+6.00+8.001
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08165.64 -3.42

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 16
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 16
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 15
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 15

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 16 +0.82 [-5.77, 2.41] no
NCEP GFS 16 -0.70 [-6.34, 2.14] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 16 +0.24 [-1.86, 2.05] no
Persistence (baseline) 16 +2.70 [0.72, 6.81] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSP ifs_hres lead 9, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/ifs_hres/lead/9/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSP (Minneapolis-St Paul), model ifs_hres, lead day 9. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/ifs_hres/lead/9/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence