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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Minneapolis-St Paul · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 8

KMSP · ifs_hres · lead 8

Target day = initialization date + 8 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d17 1 QC5.02 [4.28, 6.37]3.41-3.81 [-6.29, -2.36]5.80 [5.02, 6.99]12% [0%, 23%]18%24%-0.58-0.082026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d17 1 QC5.02 [4.22, 7.62]3.41-3.81 [-7.62, -2.28]5.80 [4.96, 7.62]12% [0%, 24%]18%24%-0.58-0.082026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d17 1 QC5.02 [4.19, 7.62]3.41-3.81 [-7.62, -2.08]5.80 [4.90, 7.62]12% [0%, 25%]18%24%-0.58-0.082026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall17 1 QC5.02 [4.14, 7.34]3.41-3.81 [-7.34, -1.99]5.80 [4.89, 7.60]12% [0%, 25%]18%24%-0.58-0.082026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d17 1 QC4.80 [4.09, 5.74]3.52-3.22 [-5.62, -1.62]5.57 [4.80, 6.49]12% [0%, 29%]18%24%-0.51-0.122026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d17 1 QC4.80 [4.07, 5.83]3.52-3.22 [-5.83, -1.54]5.57 [4.79, 6.57]12% [0%, 29%]18%24%-0.51-0.122026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d17 1 QC4.80 [4.04, 5.90]3.52-3.22 [-5.88, -1.38]5.57 [4.73, 6.66]12% [0%, 30%]18%24%-0.51-0.122026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall17 1 QC4.80 [4.02, 5.90]3.52-3.22 [-5.86, -1.30]5.57 [4.74, 6.54]12% [0%, 33%]18%24%-0.51-0.122026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC4.75 [3.92, 5.99]3.14-4.54 [-5.88, -3.61]5.83 [4.93, 6.96]18% [8%, 30%]35%35%-0.50+0.002026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC4.75 [3.96, 6.51]3.14-4.54 [-6.30, -3.67]5.83 [4.92, 6.91]18% [0%, 33%]35%35%-0.50+0.002026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC4.75 [3.87, 6.87]3.14-4.54 [-6.87, -3.59]5.83 [4.85, 6.87]18% [0%, 33%]35%35%-0.50+0.002026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 1 QC4.75 [3.64, 6.68]3.14-4.54 [-6.53, -3.33]5.83 [4.60, 6.88]18% [0%, 33%]35%35%-0.50+0.002026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 1 QC4.31 [3.38, 5.64]3.40-3.64 [-5.18, -2.54]5.47 [4.37, 6.67]18% [7%, 29%]35%41%-0.36-0.082026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 1 QC4.31 [3.43, 6.10]3.40-3.64 [-5.79, -2.53]5.47 [4.28, 6.69]18% [0%, 30%]35%41%-0.36-0.082026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 1 QC4.31 [3.34, 6.10]3.40-3.64 [-6.10, -2.54]5.47 [4.17, 6.58]18% [0%, 29%]35%41%-0.36-0.082026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 1 QC4.31 [3.14, 6.10]3.40-3.64 [-5.93, -2.21]5.47 [3.96, 6.68]18% [0%, 33%]35%41%-0.36-0.082026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d17 1 QC4.22 [2.40, 5.92]4.11+1.52 [-2.76, 4.26]5.49 [2.75, 7.38]6% [0%, 17%]35%41%+0.28+0.292026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d17 1 QC4.22 [2.20, 6.02]4.11+1.52 [-4.54, 4.58]5.49 [2.49, 7.46]6% [0%, 16%]35%41%+0.28+0.292026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d17 1 QC4.22 [2.19, 6.06]4.11+1.52 [-4.78, 4.68]5.49 [2.41, 7.56]6% [0%, 17%]35%41%+0.28+0.292026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall17 1 QC4.22 [1.97, 6.00]4.11+1.52 [-4.60, 4.49]5.49 [2.17, 7.48]6% [0%, 17%]35%41%+0.28+0.292026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d17 1 QC4.33 [2.55, 5.96]4.17+1.57 [-2.83, 4.36]5.56 [2.91, 7.41]12% [0%, 19%]24%41%+0.26+0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d17 1 QC4.33 [2.38, 6.08]4.17+1.57 [-4.56, 4.66]5.56 [2.67, 7.49]12% [0%, 17%]24%41%+0.26+0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d17 1 QC4.33 [2.34, 6.14]4.17+1.57 [-4.68, 4.79]5.56 [2.66, 7.59]12% [0%, 18%]24%41%+0.26+0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall17 1 QC4.33 [2.22, 6.07]4.17+1.57 [-4.59, 4.58]5.56 [2.42, 7.50]12% [0%, 17%]24%41%+0.26+0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC2.84 [1.85, 3.82]2.83-0.33 [-2.05, 1.43]4.05 [2.54, 5.13]35% [14%, 45%]47%71%+0.51+0.512026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC2.84 [1.74, 3.80]2.83-0.33 [-2.12, 1.78]4.05 [1.80, 5.14]35% [0%, 44%]47%71%+0.51+0.512026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC2.84 [1.79, 3.88]2.83-0.33 [-2.08, 1.80]4.05 [1.80, 5.23]35% [0%, 44%]47%71%+0.51+0.512026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 1 QC2.84 [1.80, 3.86]2.83-0.33 [-2.47, 1.79]4.05 [1.80, 5.20]35% [0%, 45%]47%71%+0.51+0.512026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 1 QC2.84 [1.78, 3.85]2.86-0.17 [-1.94, 1.35]4.03 [2.39, 5.10]35% [14%, 45%]53%71%+0.51+0.512026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 1 QC2.84 [1.36, 3.78]2.86-0.17 [-2.01, 1.54]4.03 [1.46, 5.08]35% [0%, 44%]53%71%+0.51+0.512026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 1 QC2.84 [1.35, 3.88]2.86-0.17 [-2.04, 1.58]4.03 [1.46, 5.17]35% [0%, 44%]53%71%+0.51+0.512026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 1 QC2.84 [1.41, 3.89]2.86-0.17 [-2.30, 1.60]4.03 [1.57, 5.12]35% [0%, 45%]53%71%+0.51+0.512026-08-09 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSP, lead day 8, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-09: -7.63 °F2026-08-15: -7.6 °F2026-08-16: -2.68 °F2026-08-17: -6.88 °F2026-08-18: -3.75 °F2026-08-19: +0.05 °F2026-08-20: +6.59 °F2026-08-21: -6.08 °F2026-08-22: -3.99 °F2026-08-23: -0.36 °F2026-08-24: -7.61 °F2026-08-25: +3.63 °F2026-08-26: -5.87 °F2026-08-27: -3.85 °F2026-08-28: -11.61 °F2026-08-29: -1.2 °F2026-08-30: -5.92 °F2026-08-092026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (22 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-5.92
2026-08-29-1.20
2026-08-28-11.61
2026-08-27-3.85
2026-08-26-5.87
2026-08-25+3.63
2026-08-24-7.61
2026-08-23-0.36
2026-08-22-3.99
2026-08-21-6.08
2026-08-20+6.59
2026-08-19+0.05
2026-08-18-3.75
2026-08-17-6.88
2026-08-16-2.68
2026-08-15-7.60
2026-08-14—
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09-7.63

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSP, lead day 8-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 5 days-6 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 5.87 · P90 |e| 7.62 °F-200+20 °Fn = 17 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.005
-6.00-4.002
-4.00-2.004
-2.00+0.002
+0.00+2.001
+2.00+4.001
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.001
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08175.02 -3.81

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 17 -0.96 [-2.85, 1.33] no
NCEP GFS 17 -1.25 [-2.89, 2.72] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 17 -0.18 [-1.44, 0.58] no
Persistence (baseline) 17 +1.84 [0.06, 6.12] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSP ifs_hres lead 8, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSP (Minneapolis-St Paul), model ifs_hres, lead day 8. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence