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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Minneapolis-St Paul · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 5

KMSP · ifs_hres · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC2.96 [2.13, 3.75]2.47-1.85 [-3.19, -0.77]3.48 [2.42, 4.37]17% [6%, 27%]28%50%+0.14+0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC2.96 [1.95, 3.85]2.47-1.85 [-3.44, -0.70]3.48 [2.15, 4.43]17% [0%, 25%]28%50%+0.14+0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC2.96 [1.90, 3.88]2.47-1.85 [-3.45, -0.64]3.48 [2.15, 4.47]17% [0%, 25%]28%50%+0.14+0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 1 QC2.96 [1.94, 3.81]2.47-1.85 [-3.24, -0.64]3.48 [2.16, 4.45]17% [0%, 25%]28%50%+0.14+0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 1 QC3.10 [2.04, 3.82]2.97-1.05 [-2.46, 0.26]3.58 [2.52, 4.34]17% [5%, 40%]17%50%+0.10+0.102026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 1 QC3.10 [1.49, 3.94]2.97-1.05 [-2.76, 0.44]3.58 [2.12, 4.43]17% [0%, 51%]17%50%+0.10+0.102026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 1 QC3.10 [1.76, 3.92]2.97-1.05 [-2.78, 0.50]3.58 [2.29, 4.41]17% [0%, 50%]17%50%+0.10+0.102026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 1 QC3.10 [1.60, 3.91]2.97-1.05 [-2.58, 0.38]3.58 [2.18, 4.42]17% [0%, 50%]17%50%+0.10+0.102026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d20 1 QC3.72 [2.71, 4.61]2.38-3.41 [-4.30, -2.42]4.57 [3.35, 5.45]15% [0%, 29%]30%45%-0.05+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d20 1 QC3.72 [2.42, 4.69]2.38-3.41 [-4.40, -2.42]4.57 [2.97, 5.50]15% [0%, 29%]30%45%-0.05+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d20 1 QC3.72 [2.42, 4.71]2.38-3.41 [-4.44, -2.27]4.57 [2.72, 5.54]15% [0%, 29%]30%45%-0.05+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall20 1 QC3.72 [2.42, 4.65]2.38-3.41 [-4.37, -2.20]4.57 [2.54, 5.50]15% [0%, 29%]30%45%-0.05+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d20 1 QC3.28 [2.16, 4.15]2.65-2.49 [-3.40, -1.39]4.15 [2.77, 5.10]15% [5%, 36%]40%55%+0.08+0.242026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d20 1 QC3.28 [1.92, 4.21]2.65-2.49 [-3.50, -1.15]4.15 [2.31, 5.13]15% [0%, 45%]40%55%+0.08+0.242026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d20 1 QC3.28 [1.75, 4.21]2.65-2.49 [-3.52, -1.04]4.15 [2.16, 5.16]15% [0%, 41%]40%55%+0.08+0.242026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall20 1 QC3.28 [1.81, 4.22]2.65-2.49 [-3.46, -0.51]4.15 [2.21, 5.16]15% [0%, 42%]40%55%+0.08+0.242026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC1.91 [1.22, 2.46]1.86+0.65 [-0.77, 1.57]2.51 [1.50, 3.17]33% [21%, 56%]61%72%+0.59+0.602026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC1.91 [0.96, 2.54]1.86+0.65 [-1.02, 1.65]2.51 [1.11, 3.25]33% [21%, 67%]61%72%+0.59+0.602026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC1.91 [0.99, 2.53]1.86+0.65 [-1.24, 1.64]2.51 [1.06, 3.23]33% [20%, 67%]61%72%+0.59+0.602026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 1 QC1.91 [0.92, 2.57]1.86+0.65 [-1.07, 1.59]2.51 [1.00, 3.26]33% [20%, 67%]61%72%+0.59+0.602026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 1 QC2.08 [1.43, 2.69]1.80+0.95 [-0.32, 1.87]2.57 [1.61, 3.25]22% [6%, 40%]67%72%+0.55+0.612026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 1 QC2.08 [1.34, 2.73]1.80+0.95 [-0.47, 1.94]2.57 [1.35, 3.30]22% [0%, 40%]67%72%+0.55+0.612026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 1 QC2.08 [1.30, 2.76]1.80+0.95 [-0.80, 1.95]2.57 [1.32, 3.30]22% [0%, 42%]67%72%+0.55+0.612026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 1 QC2.08 [1.30, 2.76]1.80+0.95 [-0.68, 1.91]2.57 [1.31, 3.29]22% [0%, 40%]67%72%+0.55+0.612026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d20 1 QC2.03 [1.43, 2.59]2.03+0.08 [-1.20, 1.15]2.66 [1.87, 3.18]35% [14%, 52%]65%75%+0.54+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d20 1 QC2.03 [1.28, 2.66]2.03+0.08 [-1.43, 1.28]2.66 [1.28, 3.31]35% [0%, 55%]65%75%+0.54+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d20 1 QC2.03 [1.21, 2.66]2.03+0.08 [-1.60, 1.28]2.66 [1.28, 3.25]35% [0%, 56%]65%75%+0.54+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall20 1 QC2.03 [1.24, 2.75]2.03+0.08 [-1.44, 1.28]2.66 [1.28, 3.29]35% [0%, 54%]65%75%+0.54+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d20 1 QC1.98 [1.47, 2.59]1.95+0.27 [-1.02, 1.33]2.58 [1.92, 3.08]30% [11%, 47%]60%75%+0.55+0.562026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d20 1 QC1.98 [1.38, 2.70]1.95+0.27 [-1.15, 1.68]2.58 [1.85, 3.18]30% [0%, 50%]60%75%+0.55+0.562026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d20 1 QC1.98 [1.29, 2.68]1.95+0.27 [-1.43, 1.72]2.58 [1.68, 3.11]30% [0%, 50%]60%75%+0.55+0.562026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall20 1 QC1.98 [1.28, 2.72]1.95+0.27 [-1.27, 1.55]2.58 [1.73, 3.20]30% [0%, 50%]60%75%+0.55+0.562026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSP, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-06: -1.51 °F2026-08-12: -3.04 °F2026-08-13: +2.57 °F2026-08-14: +0.72 °F2026-08-16: -4.13 °F2026-08-17: -4.56 °F2026-08-19: -7.86 °F2026-08-20: +1.08 °F2026-08-21: -4.97 °F2026-08-22: -4.48 °F2026-08-23: -0.98 °F2026-08-24: -2.45 °F2026-08-25: +3.01 °F2026-08-26: +2.54 °F2026-08-27: -3.19 °F2026-08-28: +0.01 °F2026-08-29: -4 °F2026-08-30: -2.13 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.13
2026-08-29-4.00
2026-08-28+0.01
2026-08-27-3.19
2026-08-26+2.54
2026-08-25+3.01
2026-08-24-2.45
2026-08-23-0.98
2026-08-22-4.48
2026-08-21-4.97
2026-08-20+1.08
2026-08-19-7.86
2026-08-18—
2026-08-17-4.56
2026-08-16-4.13
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14+0.72
2026-08-13+2.57
2026-08-12-3.04
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06-1.51

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSP, lead day 5-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 5 days-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 2 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.79 · P90 |e| 4.68 °F-100+10 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.005
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.002
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.002
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08182.96 -1.85

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 -1.27 [-2.06, -0.37] yes
NCEP GFS 18 +0.11 [-0.78, 1.13] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -4.09 [-5.71, -1.94] yes
Persistence (baseline) 18 -0.49 [-2.49, 0.75] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSP ifs_hres lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSP (Minneapolis-St Paul), model ifs_hres, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence