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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Minneapolis-St Paul · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 5

KMSP · aifs_single · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC4.51 [3.65, 5.21]2.85-4.08 [-4.98, -2.73]5.36 [4.36, 6.19]16% [5%, 24%]28%32%-0.09+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC4.51 [3.48, 5.16]2.85-4.08 [-5.01, -2.40]5.36 [4.25, 6.20]16% [5%, 25%]28%32%-0.09+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC4.51 [3.51, 5.19]2.85-4.08 [-5.04, -2.49]5.36 [4.24, 6.17]16% [0%, 25%]28%32%-0.09+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall25 1 QC4.51 [3.20, 5.16]2.85-4.08 [-4.95, -2.15]5.36 [3.83, 6.16]16% [0%, 29%]28%32%-0.09+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d25 1 QC4.55 [3.73, 5.26]2.87-4.09 [-5.04, -2.68]5.41 [4.42, 6.25]12% [4%, 21%]28%36%-0.10+0.302026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d25 1 QC4.55 [3.60, 5.18]2.87-4.09 [-5.06, -2.31]5.41 [4.29, 6.28]12% [0%, 21%]28%36%-0.10+0.302026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d25 1 QC4.55 [3.59, 5.23]2.87-4.09 [-5.07, -2.35]5.41 [4.32, 6.25]12% [0%, 21%]28%36%-0.10+0.302026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall25 1 QC4.55 [3.32, 5.21]2.87-4.09 [-4.98, -2.07]5.41 [4.01, 6.26]12% [0%, 21%]28%36%-0.10+0.302026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC4.46 [3.72, 5.17]2.78-3.92 [-4.92, -2.64]5.22 [4.22, 5.92]4% [0%, 12%]21%42%-0.10+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC4.46 [3.55, 5.14]2.78-3.92 [-4.99, -2.36]5.22 [3.96, 5.92]4% [0%, 11%]21%42%-0.10+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC4.46 [3.62, 5.14]2.78-3.92 [-5.02, -2.47]5.22 [4.09, 5.93]4% [0%, 13%]21%42%-0.10+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC4.46 [3.39, 5.12]2.78-3.92 [-4.91, -2.38]5.22 [3.94, 5.93]4% [0%, 13%]21%42%-0.10+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC4.50 [3.70, 5.25]2.81-3.91 [-5.02, -2.60]5.25 [4.20, 6.01]12% [0%, 21%]17%42%-0.11+0.302026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC4.50 [3.54, 5.28]2.81-3.91 [-5.13, -2.19]5.25 [3.99, 6.01]12% [0%, 21%]17%42%-0.11+0.302026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC4.50 [3.62, 5.26]2.81-3.91 [-5.20, -2.37]5.25 [4.05, 6.00]12% [0%, 21%]17%42%-0.11+0.302026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC4.50 [3.44, 5.19]2.81-3.91 [-5.02, -2.27]5.25 [4.02, 6.00]12% [0%, 23%]17%42%-0.11+0.302026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC2.72 [2.23, 3.11]2.19-1.87 [-2.70, -0.79]3.29 [2.80, 3.62]28% [18%, 41%]40%60%+0.43+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC2.72 [2.19, 3.13]2.19-1.87 [-2.80, -0.60]3.29 [2.75, 3.64]28% [17%, 43%]40%60%+0.43+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC2.72 [2.23, 3.11]2.19-1.87 [-2.80, -0.64]3.29 [2.77, 3.63]28% [16%, 43%]40%60%+0.43+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall25 1 QC2.72 [2.10, 3.17]2.19-1.87 [-2.85, -0.52]3.29 [2.65, 3.65]28% [14%, 43%]40%60%+0.43+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d25 1 QC2.82 [2.26, 3.24]2.17-2.04 [-2.90, -0.98]3.38 [2.85, 3.74]24% [10%, 47%]40%60%+0.41+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d25 1 QC2.82 [2.20, 3.25]2.17-2.04 [-2.96, -0.77]3.38 [2.79, 3.75]24% [7%, 56%]40%60%+0.41+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d25 1 QC2.82 [2.21, 3.26]2.17-2.04 [-3.00, -0.81]3.38 [2.83, 3.73]24% [7%, 56%]40%60%+0.41+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall25 1 QC2.82 [2.05, 3.32]2.17-2.04 [-3.05, -0.67]3.38 [2.70, 3.77]24% [7%, 60%]40%60%+0.41+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC2.58 [2.07, 3.11]2.16-1.83 [-2.79, -0.67]3.15 [2.49, 3.71]25% [15%, 38%]38%67%+0.45+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC2.58 [2.02, 3.15]2.16-1.83 [-2.92, -0.54]3.15 [2.41, 3.71]25% [14%, 43%]38%67%+0.45+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC2.58 [1.96, 3.21]2.16-1.83 [-2.96, -0.46]3.15 [2.32, 3.79]25% [14%, 40%]38%67%+0.45+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC2.58 [2.00, 3.18]2.16-1.83 [-2.96, -0.38]3.15 [2.42, 3.77]25% [14%, 40%]38%67%+0.45+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC2.65 [2.09, 3.23]2.15-2.00 [-2.91, -0.91]3.23 [2.50, 3.82]21% [13%, 37%]38%62%+0.43+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC2.65 [2.02, 3.25]2.15-2.00 [-3.06, -0.71]3.23 [2.41, 3.85]21% [13%, 42%]38%62%+0.43+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC2.65 [1.94, 3.30]2.15-2.00 [-3.08, -0.68]3.23 [2.28, 3.93]21% [13%, 40%]38%62%+0.43+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC2.65 [1.96, 3.29]2.15-2.00 [-3.08, -0.59]3.23 [2.38, 3.91]21% [14%, 40%]38%62%+0.43+0.542026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSP, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-06: -1.93 °F2026-08-07: +3.53 °F2026-08-08: -0.52 °F2026-08-09: -6.99 °F2026-08-10: -7.1 °F2026-08-11: -6.25 °F2026-08-12: -5.64 °F2026-08-13: +0.42 °F2026-08-14: -3.15 °F2026-08-15: -5.5 °F2026-08-16: -5.25 °F2026-08-17: -4.92 °F2026-08-18: -6.57 °F2026-08-19: -12.74 °F2026-08-20: -2.29 °F2026-08-21: +1.35 °F2026-08-22: -1 °F2026-08-23: -7.32 °F2026-08-24: -7.34 °F2026-08-25: -0.97 °F2026-08-26: -5.63 °F2026-08-27: -3.83 °F2026-08-28: -7.42 °F2026-08-29: -3.75 °F2026-08-30: -1.23 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.23
2026-08-29-3.75
2026-08-28-7.42
2026-08-27-3.83
2026-08-26-5.63
2026-08-25-0.97
2026-08-24-7.34
2026-08-23-7.32
2026-08-22-1.00
2026-08-21+1.35
2026-08-20-2.29
2026-08-19-12.74
2026-08-18-6.57
2026-08-17-4.92
2026-08-16-5.25
2026-08-15-5.50
2026-08-14-3.15
2026-08-13+0.42
2026-08-12-5.64
2026-08-11-6.25
2026-08-10-7.10
2026-08-09-6.99
2026-08-08-0.52
2026-08-07+3.53
2026-08-06-1.93

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSP, lead day 5-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 1 day-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 7 days-6 to -4 °F: 5 days-4 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to 0 °F: 5 days0 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.92 · P90 |e| 7.33 °F-200+20 °Fn = 25 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.001
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.007
-6.00-4.005
-4.00-2.004
-2.00+0.005
+0.00+2.002
+2.00+4.001
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08254.51 -4.08

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 25 +0.50 [-1.84, 1.85] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -2.23 [-3.55, -0.96] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 +1.27 [0.37, 2.06] yes
Persistence (baseline) 25 +0.39 [-1.75, 1.83] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSP aifs_single lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/aifs_single/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSP (Minneapolis-St Paul), model aifs_single, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/aifs_single/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence