Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Minneapolis-St Paul · NCEP GFS · lead day 5

KMSP · gfs · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC4.00 [2.68, 5.43]4.01+0.07 [-2.36, 2.78]5.32 [3.26, 7.29]12% [0%, 29%]32%40%+0.03+0.032026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC4.00 [2.47, 5.78]4.01+0.07 [-2.45, 3.31]5.32 [3.09, 7.64]12% [0%, 33%]32%40%+0.03+0.032026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC4.00 [2.18, 5.58]4.01+0.07 [-2.75, 3.21]5.32 [2.88, 7.57]12% [0%, 38%]32%40%+0.03+0.032026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall25 1 QC4.00 [2.30, 5.60]4.01+0.07 [-2.49, 3.34]5.32 [3.03, 7.62]12% [0%, 36%]32%40%+0.03+0.032026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d25 1 QC3.96 [2.45, 5.53]3.98+0.36 [-2.00, 3.17]5.43 [3.18, 7.61]20% [3%, 43%]28%56%+0.04+0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d25 1 QC3.96 [2.33, 5.99]3.98+0.36 [-2.09, 3.83]5.43 [2.97, 7.97]20% [0%, 50%]28%56%+0.04+0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d25 1 QC3.96 [1.94, 5.88]3.98+0.36 [-2.34, 3.67]5.43 [2.66, 7.88]20% [0%, 50%]28%56%+0.04+0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall25 1 QC3.96 [2.11, 5.87]3.98+0.36 [-2.21, 3.78]5.43 [2.81, 7.95]20% [0%, 50%]28%56%+0.04+0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d25 1 QC5.64 [3.61, 7.44]5.64-0.06 [-4.16, 4.65]7.41 [5.07, 9.08]8% [0%, 19%]32%44%-0.37-0.372026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d25 1 QC5.64 [3.43, 7.67]5.64-0.06 [-4.15, 5.53]7.41 [4.29, 9.34]8% [0%, 24%]32%44%-0.37-0.372026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d25 1 QC5.64 [2.93, 7.72]5.64-0.06 [-4.50, 5.65]7.41 [3.74, 9.31]8% [0%, 22%]32%44%-0.37-0.372026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall25 1 QC5.64 [3.33, 7.62]5.64-0.06 [-4.32, 5.50]7.41 [4.17, 9.25]8% [0%, 23%]32%44%-0.37-0.372026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d25 1 QC5.65 [3.79, 7.44]5.59+0.46 [-3.46, 5.08]7.14 [4.93, 8.85]4% [0%, 15%]20%36%-0.37-0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d25 1 QC5.65 [3.61, 7.72]5.59+0.46 [-3.46, 6.05]7.14 [4.40, 9.13]4% [0%, 18%]20%36%-0.37-0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d25 1 QC5.65 [3.09, 7.70]5.59+0.46 [-3.71, 6.35]7.14 [3.83, 9.09]4% [0%, 19%]20%36%-0.37-0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall25 1 QC5.65 [3.43, 7.62]5.59+0.46 [-3.53, 5.96]7.14 [4.28, 9.04]4% [0%, 20%]20%36%-0.37-0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC4.31 [2.67, 6.02]4.06-1.67 [-4.11, 0.72]5.24 [3.34, 6.74]12% [0%, 25%]28%44%+0.09+0.152026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC4.31 [2.56, 6.31]4.06-1.67 [-4.17, 1.25]5.24 [3.13, 7.03]12% [0%, 25%]28%44%+0.09+0.152026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC4.31 [2.49, 6.36]4.06-1.67 [-4.52, 1.04]5.24 [3.05, 7.05]12% [0%, 29%]28%44%+0.09+0.152026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall25 1 QC4.31 [2.54, 6.32]4.06-1.67 [-4.61, 1.02]5.24 [3.17, 7.01]12% [0%, 27%]28%44%+0.09+0.152026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d25 1 QC4.30 [2.92, 5.66]4.21-0.56 [-2.97, 1.89]5.23 [3.56, 6.69]20% [8%, 35%]28%36%+0.10+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d25 1 QC4.30 [2.69, 5.82]4.21-0.56 [-3.05, 2.48]5.23 [3.26, 6.99]20% [8%, 36%]28%36%+0.10+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d25 1 QC4.30 [2.48, 5.87]4.21-0.56 [-3.49, 2.19]5.23 [3.01, 6.99]20% [7%, 37%]28%36%+0.10+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall25 1 QC4.30 [2.66, 5.82]4.21-0.56 [-3.48, 2.24]5.23 [3.27, 6.86]20% [7%, 38%]28%36%+0.10+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d25 1 QC4.24 [3.34, 5.19]4.24+0.04 [-2.80, 2.58]5.21 [3.93, 6.29]0% [0%, 0%]28%48%+0.11+0.112026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d25 1 QC4.24 [3.32, 5.39]4.24+0.04 [-2.78, 2.92]5.21 [3.92, 6.45]0% [0%, 0%]28%48%+0.11+0.112026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d25 1 QC4.24 [3.17, 5.40]4.24+0.04 [-3.01, 2.98]5.21 [3.77, 6.47]0% [0%, 0%]28%48%+0.11+0.112026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall25 1 QC4.24 [3.24, 5.39]4.24+0.04 [-3.03, 3.02]5.21 [3.84, 6.41]0% [0%, 0%]28%48%+0.11+0.112026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d25 1 QC4.54 [3.86, 5.27]4.45+1.13 [-1.96, 3.82]5.62 [4.72, 6.51]16% [5%, 26%]24%32%+0.05+0.062026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d25 1 QC4.54 [3.80, 5.34]4.45+1.13 [-2.02, 4.20]5.62 [4.67, 6.67]16% [0%, 27%]24%32%+0.05+0.062026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d25 1 QC4.54 [3.63, 5.38]4.45+1.13 [-2.22, 4.30]5.62 [4.54, 6.72]16% [0%, 29%]24%32%+0.05+0.062026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall25 1 QC4.54 [3.65, 5.41]4.45+1.13 [-2.29, 4.35]5.62 [4.59, 6.67]16% [0%, 29%]24%32%+0.05+0.062026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KMSP, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-06: +0.6 °F2026-08-07: +9.06 °F2026-08-08: +16.46 °F2026-08-09: -2.72 °F2026-08-10: -4.55 °F2026-08-11: -1.85 °F2026-08-12: -4.76 °F2026-08-13: -3.28 °F2026-08-14: -3.06 °F2026-08-15: -4.32 °F2026-08-16: -5.16 °F2026-08-17: +2.17 °F2026-08-18: -9.96 °F2026-08-19: +1.07 °F2026-08-20: +5.28 °F2026-08-21: -3.21 °F2026-08-22: +1.73 °F2026-08-23: +6.21 °F2026-08-24: +1.61 °F2026-08-25: +3.12 °F2026-08-26: +3.07 °F2026-08-27: -0.03 °F2026-08-28: -5.19 °F2026-08-29: +0.55 °F2026-08-30: -1.07 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.07
2026-08-29+0.55
2026-08-28-5.19
2026-08-27-0.03
2026-08-26+3.07
2026-08-25+3.12
2026-08-24+1.61
2026-08-23+6.21
2026-08-22+1.73
2026-08-21-3.21
2026-08-20+5.28
2026-08-19+1.07
2026-08-18-9.96
2026-08-17+2.17
2026-08-16-5.16
2026-08-15-4.32
2026-08-14-3.06
2026-08-13-3.28
2026-08-12-4.76
2026-08-11-1.85
2026-08-10-4.55
2026-08-09-2.72
2026-08-08+16.46
2026-08-07+9.06
2026-08-06+0.60

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KMSP, lead day 5-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -4 °F: 5 days-4 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to 0 °F: 3 days0 to 2 °F: 5 days2 to 4 °F: 3 days4 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 10 °F: 1 day10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 1 day18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.12 · P90 |e| 7.92 °F-200+20 °Fn = 25 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.001
-8.00-6.000
-6.00-4.005
-4.00-2.004
-2.00+0.003
+0.00+2.005
+2.00+4.003
+4.00+6.001
+6.00+8.001
+8.00+10.001
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.001
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08254.00 +0.07

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 25 -0.50 [-1.85, 1.84] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -2.73 [-5.21, 0.03] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 -0.11 [-1.13, 0.78] no
Persistence (baseline) 25 -0.12 [-1.21, 0.92] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSP gfs lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/gfs/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSP (Minneapolis-St Paul), model gfs, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/gfs/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence