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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Minneapolis-St Paul · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 3

KMSP · aifs_single · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC3.90 [2.88, 4.77]2.59-3.35 [-4.14, -2.44]4.70 [3.50, 5.59]15% [5%, 25%]26%44%-0.16+0.242026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC3.90 [2.69, 4.75]2.59-3.35 [-4.09, -2.30]4.70 [3.18, 5.56]15% [4%, 25%]26%44%-0.16+0.242026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC3.90 [2.74, 4.80]2.59-3.35 [-4.17, -2.35]4.70 [3.28, 5.62]15% [0%, 25%]26%44%-0.16+0.242026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall27 1 QC3.90 [2.62, 4.80]2.59-3.35 [-4.19, -2.29]4.70 [3.10, 5.59]15% [4%, 26%]26%44%-0.16+0.242026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d27 1 QC3.85 [2.72, 4.78]2.62-3.28 [-4.16, -2.24]4.68 [3.39, 5.63]15% [5%, 25%]22%48%-0.14+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d27 1 QC3.85 [2.41, 4.76]2.62-3.28 [-4.15, -2.04]4.68 [3.03, 5.59]15% [4%, 25%]22%48%-0.14+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d27 1 QC3.85 [2.49, 4.85]2.62-3.28 [-4.20, -2.10]4.68 [3.07, 5.66]15% [0%, 25%]22%48%-0.14+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall27 1 QC3.85 [2.42, 4.84]2.62-3.28 [-4.22, -2.10]4.68 [2.89, 5.63]15% [4%, 26%]22%48%-0.14+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC3.91 [2.95, 4.79]2.24-3.40 [-4.20, -2.47]4.56 [3.39, 5.53]0% [0%, 0%]22%33%-0.16+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC3.91 [2.81, 4.71]2.24-3.40 [-4.18, -2.31]4.56 [3.20, 5.45]0% [0%, 0%]22%33%-0.16+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC3.91 [2.85, 4.81]2.24-3.40 [-4.24, -2.32]4.56 [3.20, 5.54]0% [0%, 0%]22%33%-0.16+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall27 1 QC3.91 [2.69, 4.75]2.24-3.40 [-4.20, -2.28]4.56 [3.10, 5.47]0% [0%, 0%]22%33%-0.16+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d27 1 QC3.84 [2.82, 4.76]2.27-3.31 [-4.20, -2.22]4.51 [3.29, 5.50]11% [0%, 23%]22%37%-0.14+0.342026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d27 1 QC3.84 [2.64, 4.67]2.27-3.31 [-4.18, -2.06]4.51 [3.07, 5.42]11% [0%, 25%]22%37%-0.14+0.342026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d27 1 QC3.84 [2.68, 4.80]2.27-3.31 [-4.24, -2.08]4.51 [3.13, 5.52]11% [0%, 25%]22%37%-0.14+0.342026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall27 1 QC3.84 [2.59, 4.73]2.27-3.31 [-4.22, -2.05]4.51 [2.95, 5.44]11% [0%, 26%]22%37%-0.14+0.342026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC2.85 [2.36, 3.30]2.11-2.00 [-2.90, -1.01]3.31 [2.78, 3.74]19% [10%, 31%]37%52%+0.37+0.532026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC2.85 [2.27, 3.39]2.11-2.00 [-2.94, -0.89]3.31 [2.73, 3.80]19% [9%, 38%]37%52%+0.37+0.532026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC2.85 [2.23, 3.43]2.11-2.00 [-2.99, -0.77]3.31 [2.64, 3.84]19% [8%, 38%]37%52%+0.37+0.532026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall27 1 QC2.85 [2.21, 3.38]2.11-2.00 [-2.94, -0.69]3.31 [2.69, 3.78]19% [8%, 38%]37%52%+0.37+0.532026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d27 1 QC2.95 [2.46, 3.38]2.07-2.16 [-3.03, -1.19]3.39 [2.88, 3.81]11% [3%, 19%]33%52%+0.35+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d27 1 QC2.95 [2.38, 3.45]2.07-2.16 [-3.05, -1.05]3.39 [2.83, 3.86]11% [3%, 24%]33%52%+0.35+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d27 1 QC2.95 [2.33, 3.50]2.07-2.16 [-3.12, -0.99]3.39 [2.75, 3.89]11% [0%, 23%]33%52%+0.35+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall27 1 QC2.95 [2.31, 3.46]2.07-2.16 [-3.06, -0.91]3.39 [2.77, 3.84]11% [0%, 25%]33%52%+0.35+0.542026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC2.71 [2.32, 3.08]1.76-2.16 [-2.81, -1.48]3.11 [2.72, 3.46]15% [4%, 26%]33%67%+0.40+0.612026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC2.71 [2.26, 3.15]1.76-2.16 [-2.84, -1.39]3.11 [2.67, 3.49]15% [5%, 29%]33%67%+0.40+0.612026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC2.71 [2.23, 3.12]1.76-2.16 [-2.88, -1.29]3.11 [2.62, 3.48]15% [4%, 29%]33%67%+0.40+0.612026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall27 1 QC2.71 [2.16, 3.11]1.76-2.16 [-2.81, -1.31]3.11 [2.61, 3.47]15% [4%, 29%]33%67%+0.40+0.612026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d27 1 QC2.81 [2.38, 3.18]1.73-2.33 [-2.94, -1.65]3.22 [2.82, 3.57]19% [7%, 33%]26%59%+0.38+0.622026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d27 1 QC2.81 [2.32, 3.24]1.73-2.33 [-2.95, -1.58]3.22 [2.76, 3.62]19% [5%, 36%]26%59%+0.38+0.622026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d27 1 QC2.81 [2.30, 3.24]1.73-2.33 [-3.01, -1.52]3.22 [2.76, 3.60]19% [5%, 38%]26%59%+0.38+0.622026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall27 1 QC2.81 [2.23, 3.22]1.73-2.33 [-2.95, -1.51]3.22 [2.69, 3.59]19% [5%, 38%]26%59%+0.38+0.622026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSP, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-04: -2.65 °F2026-08-05: -4.69 °F2026-08-06: -0.83 °F2026-08-07: +1.09 °F2026-08-08: -0.64 °F2026-08-09: -2.71 °F2026-08-10: -3.04 °F2026-08-11: -5.86 °F2026-08-12: -8.49 °F2026-08-13: +1.47 °F2026-08-14: -2.31 °F2026-08-15: +0.35 °F2026-08-16: -7.32 °F2026-08-17: -5.87 °F2026-08-18: -10.49 °F2026-08-19: -3.99 °F2026-08-20: +4.63 °F2026-08-21: -2.38 °F2026-08-22: -2.28 °F2026-08-23: -3.93 °F2026-08-24: -9.04 °F2026-08-25: -0.92 °F2026-08-26: -4.61 °F2026-08-27: -5.06 °F2026-08-28: -5 °F2026-08-29: -4.12 °F2026-08-30: -1.63 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.63
2026-08-29-4.12
2026-08-28-5.00
2026-08-27-5.06
2026-08-26-4.61
2026-08-25-0.92
2026-08-24-9.04
2026-08-23-3.93
2026-08-22-2.28
2026-08-21-2.38
2026-08-20+4.63
2026-08-19-3.99
2026-08-18-10.49
2026-08-17-5.87
2026-08-16-7.32
2026-08-15+0.35
2026-08-14-2.31
2026-08-13+1.47
2026-08-12-8.49
2026-08-11-5.86
2026-08-10-3.04
2026-08-09-2.71
2026-08-08-0.64
2026-08-07+1.09
2026-08-06-0.83
2026-08-05-4.69
2026-08-04-2.65

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSP, lead day 3-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 2 days-8 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -4 °F: 7 days-4 to -2 °F: 8 days-2 to 0 °F: 4 days0 to 2 °F: 3 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.93 · P90 |e| 7.78 °F-200+20 °Fn = 27 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.002
-8.00-6.001
-6.00-4.007
-4.00-2.008
-2.00+0.004
+0.00+2.003
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.001
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08273.90 -3.35

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 27 -0.42 [-3.03, 1.25] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -2.33 [-3.27, -1.56] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 +0.69 [-0.07, 1.35] no
Persistence (baseline) 27 +0.53 [-2.02, 2.41] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSP aifs_single lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/aifs_single/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSP (Minneapolis-St Paul), model aifs_single, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/aifs_single/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence