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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Minneapolis-St Paul · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 3

KMSP · ifs_hres · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.65 [3.06, 4.18]2.88-2.19 [-3.06, -1.01]4.29 [3.54, 4.86]5% [0%, 12%]27%50%-0.10+0.152026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.65 [2.98, 4.18]2.88-2.19 [-3.05, -0.57]4.29 [3.43, 4.86]5% [0%, 13%]27%50%-0.10+0.152026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.65 [2.95, 4.24]2.88-2.19 [-3.05, -0.64]4.29 [3.33, 4.90]5% [0%, 14%]27%50%-0.10+0.152026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.65 [2.85, 4.22]2.88-2.19 [-3.06, -0.54]4.29 [3.26, 4.87]5% [0%, 13%]27%50%-0.10+0.152026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC3.35 [2.90, 3.89]2.91-1.15 [-2.16, 0.25]4.01 [3.38, 4.64]9% [0%, 17%]32%55%-0.01+0.142026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC3.35 [2.90, 3.92]2.91-1.15 [-2.13, 0.75]4.01 [3.34, 4.66]9% [0%, 18%]32%55%-0.01+0.142026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC3.35 [2.86, 3.94]2.91-1.15 [-2.16, 0.65]4.01 [3.31, 4.70]9% [0%, 19%]32%55%-0.01+0.142026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC3.35 [2.93, 3.95]2.91-1.15 [-2.17, 0.76]4.01 [3.37, 4.68]9% [0%, 17%]32%55%-0.01+0.142026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC4.20 [3.45, 4.97]2.67-3.45 [-4.49, -2.42]4.88 [4.14, 5.60]18% [5%, 30%]32%32%-0.27+0.212026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC4.20 [3.20, 5.11]2.67-3.45 [-4.91, -2.17]4.88 [3.83, 5.67]18% [0%, 29%]32%32%-0.27+0.212026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC4.20 [3.00, 5.33]2.67-3.45 [-4.82, -2.22]4.88 [3.80, 5.88]18% [0%, 30%]32%32%-0.27+0.212026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC4.20 [3.12, 5.23]2.67-3.45 [-4.73, -2.14]4.88 [3.70, 5.81]18% [0%, 29%]32%32%-0.27+0.212026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC3.80 [2.99, 4.58]2.91-2.54 [-3.67, -1.51]4.46 [3.57, 5.31]18% [4%, 40%]27%32%-0.15+0.142026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC3.80 [2.70, 4.70]2.91-2.54 [-4.18, -1.29]4.46 [3.16, 5.39]18% [3%, 44%]27%32%-0.15+0.142026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC3.80 [2.54, 4.92]2.91-2.54 [-4.08, -1.34]4.46 [3.08, 5.60]18% [0%, 46%]27%32%-0.15+0.142026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC3.80 [2.65, 4.76]2.91-2.54 [-4.04, -1.13]4.46 [3.10, 5.54]18% [0%, 50%]27%32%-0.15+0.142026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.39 [1.81, 3.09]2.27+0.79 [-0.38, 2.11]2.90 [2.34, 3.67]23% [8%, 44%]41%68%+0.48+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.39 [1.70, 3.31]2.27+0.79 [-0.43, 2.55]2.90 [2.23, 3.88]23% [7%, 50%]41%68%+0.48+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.39 [1.59, 3.31]2.27+0.79 [-0.43, 2.67]2.90 [2.11, 3.88]23% [6%, 50%]41%68%+0.48+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.39 [1.76, 3.41]2.27+0.79 [-0.41, 2.73]2.90 [2.27, 3.95]23% [0%, 50%]41%68%+0.48+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC2.44 [1.86, 3.23]2.19+1.09 [0.03, 2.40]2.89 [2.27, 3.83]18% [7%, 32%]50%64%+0.47+0.532026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC2.44 [1.75, 3.45]2.19+1.09 [-0.07, 2.92]2.89 [2.14, 4.04]18% [6%, 36%]50%64%+0.47+0.532026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC2.44 [1.65, 3.42]2.19+1.09 [-0.03, 2.92]2.89 [2.02, 4.04]18% [6%, 36%]50%64%+0.47+0.532026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC2.44 [1.78, 3.59]2.19+1.09 [0.03, 3.20]2.89 [2.16, 4.14]18% [0%, 33%]50%64%+0.47+0.532026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC1.64 [1.10, 2.38]1.65-0.06 [-0.92, 0.83]2.11 [1.39, 2.94]36% [12%, 58%]73%91%+0.65+0.642026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC1.64 [1.02, 2.73]1.65-0.06 [-1.01, 1.13]2.11 [1.29, 3.12]36% [0%, 67%]73%91%+0.65+0.642026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC1.64 [0.99, 2.67]1.65-0.06 [-0.99, 1.24]2.11 [1.23, 3.00]36% [0%, 67%]73%91%+0.65+0.642026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC1.64 [0.98, 2.79]1.65-0.06 [-0.98, 1.14]2.11 [1.25, 3.11]36% [0%, 67%]73%91%+0.65+0.642026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC1.72 [1.28, 2.42]1.70+0.10 [-0.66, 0.89]2.07 [1.40, 2.87]23% [5%, 38%]64%91%+0.63+0.632026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC1.72 [1.23, 2.63]1.70+0.10 [-0.82, 1.12]2.07 [1.33, 3.08]23% [0%, 40%]64%91%+0.63+0.632026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC1.72 [1.20, 2.64]1.70+0.10 [-0.79, 1.14]2.07 [1.27, 3.01]23% [0%, 41%]64%91%+0.63+0.632026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC1.72 [1.22, 2.67]1.70+0.10 [-0.75, 1.20]2.07 [1.31, 3.08]23% [0%, 42%]64%91%+0.63+0.632026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSP, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-04: +2.21 °F2026-08-10: -2.14 °F2026-08-11: -5.17 °F2026-08-12: -7.17 °F2026-08-13: +7.48 °F2026-08-14: -0.1 °F2026-08-15: -1.51 °F2026-08-16: -1.32 °F2026-08-17: -5.85 °F2026-08-18: -2.64 °F2026-08-19: -6.41 °F2026-08-20: +3.67 °F2026-08-21: -4.13 °F2026-08-22: -1.24 °F2026-08-23: -2.72 °F2026-08-24: -7.83 °F2026-08-25: +1.14 °F2026-08-26: -2.87 °F2026-08-27: -4 °F2026-08-28: -3.23 °F2026-08-29: -5.97 °F2026-08-30: +1.55 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+1.55
2026-08-29-5.97
2026-08-28-3.23
2026-08-27-4.00
2026-08-26-2.87
2026-08-25+1.14
2026-08-24-7.83
2026-08-23-2.72
2026-08-22-1.24
2026-08-21-4.13
2026-08-20+3.67
2026-08-19-6.41
2026-08-18-2.64
2026-08-17-5.85
2026-08-16-1.32
2026-08-15-1.51
2026-08-14-0.10
2026-08-13+7.48
2026-08-12-7.17
2026-08-11-5.17
2026-08-10-2.14
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04+2.21

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSP, lead day 3-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 2 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 3 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.05 · P90 |e| 7.09 °F-100+10 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.002
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.003
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.004
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.002
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.001
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08223.65 -2.19

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 -0.69 [-1.35, 0.07] no
NCEP GFS 22 -0.16 [-1.84, 0.86] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -3.10 [-4.56, -1.89] yes
Persistence (baseline) 22 +0.33 [-2.55, 1.73] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSP ifs_hres lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSP (Minneapolis-St Paul), model ifs_hres, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence