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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Minneapolis-St Paul · NCEP GFS · lead day 3

KMSP · gfs · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC4.33 [3.27, 5.48]3.52+2.40 [0.64, 4.67]5.33 [4.00, 6.56]7% [0%, 15%]19%44%-0.28-0.032026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC4.33 [3.18, 5.74]3.52+2.40 [0.64, 5.42]5.33 [3.86, 6.85]7% [0%, 17%]19%44%-0.28-0.032026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC4.33 [3.21, 5.80]3.52+2.40 [0.59, 5.33]5.33 [3.72, 6.89]7% [0%, 16%]19%44%-0.28-0.032026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall27 1 QC4.33 [3.19, 5.95]3.52+2.40 [0.63, 5.61]5.33 [3.54, 7.00]7% [0%, 16%]19%44%-0.28-0.032026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d27 1 QC4.35 [3.27, 5.63]3.44+2.69 [0.77, 5.03]5.47 [4.05, 6.80]11% [0%, 22%]19%48%-0.29-0.012026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d27 1 QC4.35 [3.18, 5.92]3.44+2.69 [0.78, 5.75]5.47 [3.90, 7.07]11% [0%, 22%]19%48%-0.29-0.012026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d27 1 QC4.35 [3.18, 5.93]3.44+2.69 [0.72, 5.65]5.47 [3.83, 7.16]11% [0%, 23%]19%48%-0.29-0.012026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall27 1 QC4.35 [3.13, 6.00]3.44+2.69 [0.78, 5.81]5.47 [3.53, 7.15]11% [0%, 22%]19%48%-0.29-0.012026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC3.78 [2.82, 4.77]3.28+2.37 [0.98, 3.96]4.76 [3.51, 5.87]19% [4%, 33%]30%52%-0.12+0.042026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC3.78 [2.77, 5.17]3.28+2.37 [0.91, 4.52]4.76 [3.39, 6.20]19% [0%, 34%]30%52%-0.12+0.042026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC3.78 [2.74, 5.15]3.28+2.37 [0.83, 4.67]4.76 [3.36, 6.20]19% [0%, 36%]30%52%-0.12+0.042026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall27 1 QC3.78 [2.61, 5.26]3.28+2.37 [0.78, 4.76]4.76 [3.14, 6.34]19% [0%, 35%]30%52%-0.12+0.042026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d27 1 QC3.66 [2.72, 4.67]3.06+2.59 [1.27, 4.18]4.69 [3.32, 6.02]7% [0%, 17%]33%44%-0.09+0.112026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d27 1 QC3.66 [2.63, 5.03]3.06+2.59 [1.20, 4.72]4.69 [3.21, 6.37]7% [0%, 20%]33%44%-0.09+0.112026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d27 1 QC3.66 [2.63, 4.90]3.06+2.59 [1.12, 4.63]4.69 [3.16, 6.28]7% [0%, 19%]33%44%-0.09+0.112026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall27 1 QC3.66 [2.48, 5.04]3.06+2.59 [1.15, 4.84]4.69 [3.06, 6.37]7% [0%, 23%]33%44%-0.09+0.112026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC2.98 [2.29, 3.62]2.93+0.28 [-1.31, 1.88]3.60 [2.79, 4.31]26% [12%, 41%]41%56%+0.34+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC2.98 [2.18, 3.71]2.93+0.28 [-1.25, 2.26]3.60 [2.54, 4.36]26% [10%, 44%]41%56%+0.34+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC2.98 [2.00, 3.74]2.93+0.28 [-1.49, 2.16]3.60 [2.30, 4.39]26% [10%, 47%]41%56%+0.34+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall27 1 QC2.98 [2.11, 3.73]2.93+0.28 [-1.42, 2.25]3.60 [2.47, 4.42]26% [8%, 46%]41%56%+0.34+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d27 1 QC3.51 [2.59, 4.29]3.16+1.56 [-0.21, 3.39]4.10 [3.15, 4.87]11% [0%, 23%]22%41%+0.22+0.302026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d27 1 QC3.51 [2.56, 4.47]3.16+1.56 [-0.19, 3.73]4.10 [3.08, 5.00]11% [0%, 24%]22%41%+0.22+0.302026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d27 1 QC3.51 [2.23, 4.49]3.16+1.56 [-0.37, 3.72]4.10 [2.76, 5.03]11% [0%, 25%]22%41%+0.22+0.302026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall27 1 QC3.51 [2.34, 4.44]3.16+1.56 [-0.36, 3.75]4.10 [2.92, 5.00]11% [0%, 25%]22%41%+0.22+0.302026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC3.35 [2.48, 4.03]3.27+0.44 [-1.19, 2.32]4.09 [3.28, 4.78]15% [3%, 29%]41%52%+0.26+0.282026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC3.35 [2.27, 4.24]3.27+0.44 [-1.22, 2.55]4.09 [3.08, 4.93]15% [0%, 35%]41%52%+0.26+0.282026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC3.35 [2.02, 4.32]3.27+0.44 [-1.39, 2.72]4.09 [2.86, 4.99]15% [0%, 38%]41%52%+0.26+0.282026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall27 1 QC3.35 [2.20, 4.35]3.27+0.44 [-1.26, 2.91]4.09 [2.98, 5.09]15% [0%, 36%]41%52%+0.26+0.282026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d27 1 QC3.81 [3.06, 4.64]3.32+1.62 [-0.13, 3.60]4.40 [3.50, 5.31]4% [0%, 11%]26%44%+0.16+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d27 1 QC3.81 [2.90, 4.79]3.32+1.62 [-0.11, 3.86]4.40 [3.25, 5.50]4% [0%, 11%]26%44%+0.16+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d27 1 QC3.81 [2.76, 4.99]3.32+1.62 [-0.32, 3.99]4.40 [3.06, 5.60]4% [0%, 11%]26%44%+0.16+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall27 1 QC3.81 [2.73, 5.03]3.32+1.62 [-0.18, 4.19]4.40 [3.03, 5.60]4% [0%, 11%]26%44%+0.16+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KMSP, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-04: +3.25 °F2026-08-05: +3.45 °F2026-08-06: +5.46 °F2026-08-07: +7.8 °F2026-08-08: +13.24 °F2026-08-09: +3 °F2026-08-10: +2.75 °F2026-08-11: -3.21 °F2026-08-12: -5.89 °F2026-08-13: +2.69 °F2026-08-14: -4.87 °F2026-08-15: +8.08 °F2026-08-16: -0.04 °F2026-08-17: +2.96 °F2026-08-18: -6.67 °F2026-08-19: -1.15 °F2026-08-20: +5.62 °F2026-08-21: +3.29 °F2026-08-22: +2.72 °F2026-08-23: +2.17 °F2026-08-24: -3.98 °F2026-08-25: +1.54 °F2026-08-26: +2.99 °F2026-08-27: +1.09 °F2026-08-28: -0.11 °F2026-08-29: +7.41 °F2026-08-30: +11.33 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+11.33
2026-08-29+7.41
2026-08-28-0.11
2026-08-27+1.09
2026-08-26+2.99
2026-08-25+1.54
2026-08-24-3.98
2026-08-23+2.17
2026-08-22+2.72
2026-08-21+3.29
2026-08-20+5.62
2026-08-19-1.15
2026-08-18-6.67
2026-08-17+2.96
2026-08-16-0.04
2026-08-15+8.08
2026-08-14-4.87
2026-08-13+2.69
2026-08-12-5.89
2026-08-11-3.21
2026-08-10+2.75
2026-08-09+3.00
2026-08-08+13.24
2026-08-07+7.80
2026-08-06+5.46
2026-08-05+3.45
2026-08-04+3.25

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KMSP, lead day 3-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to 0 °F: 3 days0 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 4 °F: 10 days4 to 6 °F: 2 days6 to 8 °F: 2 days8 to 10 °F: 1 day10 to 12 °F: 1 day12 to 14 °F: 1 day14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.25 · P90 |e| 7.91 °F-200+20 °Fn = 27 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.001
-6.00-4.002
-4.00-2.002
-2.00+0.003
+0.00+2.002
+2.00+4.0010
+4.00+6.002
+6.00+8.002
+8.00+10.001
+10.00+12.001
+12.00+14.001
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08274.33 +2.40

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
NCEP GFS2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
NCEP GFS2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
NCEP GFS2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 27 +0.42 [-1.25, 3.03] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -2.39 [-5.01, 0.21] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 +0.16 [-0.86, 1.84] no
Persistence (baseline) 27 +0.96 [-0.34, 2.43] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSP gfs lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/gfs/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSP (Minneapolis-St Paul), model gfs, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/gfs/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence