Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

NCEP GFS (gfs)

source gfs · product pgrb2.0p25 · steps every 6 h to 240 h · initializations 0, 12 UTC · native extreme fields TMAX, TMIN (diagnostic only, never in the headline ranking).

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01. Earlier days ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled into the same average.

These pages are always bilinear interpolation, the headline method. The nearest-node variant, and every other window/initialization/interpolation/variable combination, is published on each permanent link below — follow any number.

Daily maximum temperature — MAE °F by station

the last 90 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL 1.17+0.15 · n=30 2.45-0.88 · n=29 3.13-0.78 · n=28 2.94+0.15 · n=27 3.26-0.72 · n=26 4.02-0.60 · n=25 4.91-0.67 · n=24 2.98-0.54 · n=23 3.71-0.27 · n=22 4.97-1.54 · n=21 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KAUS 1.64-1.30 · n=30 1.47-1.20 · n=29 1.55-1.11 · n=28 1.51-1.00 · n=27 1.87-1.22 · n=26 2.10-1.76 · n=25 2.82-1.92 · n=24 2.77-1.36 · n=23 2.31-1.06 · n=22 2.67-0.57 · n=21 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KBOS 2.22-0.80 · n=29 2.85-0.93 · n=28 2.77-1.52 · n=27 3.84-2.06 · n=26 4.21-1.39 · n=25 4.21-0.89 · n=24 4.55-0.64 · n=23 5.49-0.02 · n=22 6.45-1.15 · n=21 7.15-1.85 · n=20 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDCA 2.33-1.23 · n=30 3.74-2.71 · n=29 3.00-1.60 · n=28 3.58-1.08 · n=27 3.69-1.49 · n=26 4.34-2.18 · n=25 3.59-0.47 · n=24 4.47-2.82 · n=23 5.61-2.04 · n=22 7.28-1.61 · n=21 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDEN 3.72-3.04 · n=30 3.85-2.77 · n=29 3.39-1.85 · n=28 3.99-1.95 · n=27 4.48-2.88 · n=26 4.84-4.07 · n=25 4.02-2.03 · n=24 6.35-4.20 · n=23 5.33-3.20 · n=22 —KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KDFW 1.41+0.65 · n=30 1.73+1.34 · n=29 1.91+1.03 · n=28 1.92+1.44 · n=27 1.88+1.07 · n=26 2.19+0.43 · n=25 2.25+0.92 · n=24 2.59+0.88 · n=23 3.32+0.64 · n=22 3.03+0.78 · n=21 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KEWR 1.70-1.09 · n=30 1.99-0.97 · n=29 2.93-1.81 · n=28 2.32-0.79 · n=27 2.59-1.22 · n=26 3.54-1.32 · n=25 3.12-0.49 · n=24 2.73-1.00 · n=23 3.56-2.03 · n=22 4.91-0.77 · n=21 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KIAH 1.43-0.49 · n=30 1.24-0.36 · n=29 1.74-0.48 · n=28 2.13-0.37 · n=27 2.15-0.83 · n=26 2.29-1.17 · n=25 2.64-1.01 · n=24 2.29-0.92 · n=23 2.44-0.76 · n=22 2.87-1.23 · n=21 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAS 5.08-4.52 · n=30 5.14-4.42 · n=29 4.60-3.75 · n=28 4.69-3.69 · n=27 4.46-2.80 · n=26 4.72-3.16 · n=25 5.23-3.15 · n=24 6.75-3.40 · n=23 5.99-3.48 · n=22 —KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KLAX 2.09-0.81 · n=30 2.06-0.58 · n=29 2.25-0.52 · n=28 2.11-0.43 · n=27 2.18-0.18 · n=26 1.56-0.54 · n=25 1.86-0.81 · n=24 1.98-1.17 · n=23 2.99-1.16 · n=22 —KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMIA 1.52-1.25 · n=30 1.65-1.39 · n=29 1.69-1.46 · n=28 1.98-1.69 · n=27 2.04-1.91 · n=26 2.17-1.92 · n=25 2.71-2.54 · n=24 2.76-2.67 · n=23 2.56-2.56 · n=22 2.64-2.52 · n=21 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSP 2.07+0.90 · n=30 3.29+1.70 · n=29 3.89+1.91 · n=28 4.33+2.40 · n=27 3.81-0.59 · n=26 4.00+0.07 · n=25 4.75-1.20 · n=24 5.15-0.61 · n=23 7.09-2.37 · n=22 6.39-2.92 · n=21 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KMSY 5.06-4.80 · n=30 4.69-4.41 · n=29 4.66-4.44 · n=28 3.78-3.78 · n=27 4.12-4.12 · n=26 3.38-2.97 · n=25 4.53-4.46 · n=24 4.14-3.62 · n=23 3.48-3.27 · n=22 4.48-4.41 · n=21 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KNYC 3.36+3.06 · n=30 3.80+3.18 · n=29 4.14+2.47 · n=28 3.80+3.00 · n=27 4.17+2.71 · n=26 4.40+2.52 · n=25 4.45+3.63 · n=24 4.16+3.00 · n=23 3.67+1.72 · n=22 5.21+2.84 · n=21 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KOKC 2.50+1.32 · n=30 2.67+1.96 · n=29 3.13+2.21 · n=28 3.28+2.44 · n=27 2.99+1.93 · n=26 3.91+1.97 · n=25 4.23+1.27 · n=24 3.38+1.08 · n=23 4.09-0.03 · n=22 3.14+1.41 · n=21 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KORD 2.26-2.11 · n=30 2.57-1.96 · n=29 2.94-1.21 · n=28 3.92-1.27 · n=27 3.15-1.15 · n=26 3.40-1.22 · n=25 2.84-1.04 · n=24 5.61-3.56 · n=23 4.65-2.17 · n=22 7.17-3.20 · n=21 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHL 2.80-2.26 · n=30 2.88-2.49 · n=29 3.60-2.68 · n=28 3.12-1.93 · n=27 3.65-2.07 · n=26 4.33-1.96 · n=25 4.09-1.31 · n=24 3.77-1.73 · n=23 4.89-2.02 · n=22 5.14-1.32 · n=21 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KPHX 2.96-2.69 · n=30 2.91-2.59 · n=29 2.75-2.42 · n=28 4.05-3.32 · n=27 3.49-3.14 · n=26 4.01-3.45 · n=25 4.38-3.83 · n=24 4.31-3.87 · n=23 4.90-4.11 · n=22 —KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAN 2.93-2.91 · n=30 2.68-2.65 · n=29 2.82-2.78 · n=28 2.97-2.91 · n=27 3.09-3.07 · n=26 3.32-3.27 · n=25 3.40-3.35 · n=24 3.72-3.43 · n=23 3.83-3.55 · n=22 —KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSAT 2.11-1.97 · n=30 1.76-1.45 · n=29 1.77-1.39 · n=28 1.61-1.28 · n=27 1.70-0.83 · n=26 1.90-1.61 · n=25 1.63-1.29 · n=24 2.04-1.22 · n=23 1.98-0.70 · n=22 2.41-0.74 · n=21 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSEA 3.85+3.14 · n=30 4.28+3.22 · n=29 4.41+2.86 · n=28 4.61+3.20 · n=27 4.43+3.66 · n=26 4.18+2.63 · n=25 4.85+2.95 · n=24 4.66+1.38 · n=23 7.29+1.83 · n=22 —KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KSFO 4.74-4.35 · n=30 4.75-4.49 · n=29 4.58-4.30 · n=28 4.70-4.31 · n=27 4.57-4.44 · n=26 4.69-4.30 · n=25 4.65-4.40 · n=24 4.86-4.73 · n=23 4.89-4.86 · n=22 —KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax
KTTN 1.88+0.73 · n=30 2.94+0.58 · n=29 3.08-0.26 · n=28 2.53+0.71 · n=27 3.15+1.01 · n=26 4.27+0.56 · n=25 3.70+1.18 · n=24 3.29+0.62 · n=23 4.79+0.57 · n=22 5.33+1.40 · n=21 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmax

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily minimum temperature — MAE °F by station

the last 90 days, 00Z, bilinear. MAE with the bias and n underneath; every cell links to its permanent page. The sparkline shows this station across lead days 1–9 on a scale shared within this table.
Stationd0d1d2d3d4d5d6d7d8d9lead 1–9
KATL 1.87+1.20 · n=30 2.15+1.42 · n=29 2.07+1.29 · n=28 2.40+1.70 · n=27 2.56+1.60 · n=26 2.97+2.01 · n=25 2.79+1.67 · n=24 2.70+1.08 · n=23 3.24+1.48 · n=22 3.85+0.81 · n=21 KATL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KAUS 3.81+3.42 · n=30 3.84+3.38 · n=29 3.52+2.89 · n=28 3.28+2.83 · n=27 3.28+2.68 · n=26 3.15+2.62 · n=25 3.09+2.74 · n=24 3.13+2.30 · n=23 2.99+2.21 · n=22 2.91+2.23 · n=21 KAUS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KBOS 1.55-0.83 · n=29 1.59-0.69 · n=28 1.77-1.26 · n=27 1.78-1.07 · n=26 1.75-1.19 · n=25 3.02-1.13 · n=24 2.36-0.52 · n=23 2.45-0.27 · n=22 2.55-0.52 · n=21 3.22-1.48 · n=20 KBOS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDCA 1.72-0.42 · n=30 2.44-0.70 · n=29 2.83-1.22 · n=28 2.40-0.88 · n=27 2.98-1.23 · n=26 2.98-1.00 · n=25 3.16-0.18 · n=24 3.76-1.00 · n=23 4.44-1.54 · n=22 4.95-0.57 · n=21 KDCA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDEN 3.59+2.96 · n=30 4.14+3.66 · n=29 4.79+4.61 · n=28 4.79+4.61 · n=27 5.25+4.75 · n=26 4.51+3.53 · n=25 5.08+3.76 · n=24 5.36+4.37 · n=23 5.73+4.47 · n=22 —KDEN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KDFW 3.02+3.02 · n=30 3.73+3.73 · n=29 3.46+3.44 · n=28 3.48+3.48 · n=27 3.12+3.12 · n=26 2.86+2.72 · n=25 2.86+2.86 · n=24 3.88+3.35 · n=23 3.95+3.02 · n=22 3.58+2.80 · n=21 KDFW MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KEWR 3.58+3.28 · n=30 3.85+3.51 · n=29 3.64+3.05 · n=28 4.00+3.89 · n=27 4.12+3.80 · n=26 3.89+2.94 · n=25 4.61+3.61 · n=24 4.33+3.64 · n=23 4.47+3.53 · n=22 4.90+3.08 · n=21 KEWR MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KIAH 3.57+3.57 · n=30 3.46+3.46 · n=29 3.45+3.45 · n=28 3.61+3.58 · n=27 3.34+3.24 · n=26 3.55+3.35 · n=25 3.47+3.19 · n=24 3.48+3.10 · n=23 2.98+2.67 · n=22 3.55+3.10 · n=21 KIAH MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAS 3.19-1.22 · n=30 3.46-1.39 · n=29 3.71-0.94 · n=28 3.39-0.12 · n=27 3.59-0.20 · n=26 3.37+0.44 · n=25 3.81+0.15 · n=24 4.54+0.22 · n=23 4.93-0.42 · n=22 —KLAS MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KLAX 2.94+2.84 · n=30 3.48+3.34 · n=29 3.67+3.58 · n=28 3.82+3.71 · n=27 3.61+3.54 · n=26 3.57+3.57 · n=25 3.42+3.42 · n=24 3.42+3.18 · n=23 3.32+2.87 · n=22 —KLAX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMIA 4.51+4.50 · n=30 4.84+4.78 · n=29 4.86+4.86 · n=28 4.92+4.92 · n=27 4.64+4.64 · n=26 4.80+4.80 · n=25 4.68+4.68 · n=24 4.76+4.76 · n=23 4.28+4.11 · n=22 4.60+4.60 · n=21 KMIA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSP 1.81-1.18 · n=30 2.28-0.29 · n=29 2.27-0.03 · n=28 2.98+0.28 · n=27 3.57+0.13 · n=26 4.31-1.67 · n=25 4.46-2.13 · n=24 5.32-1.47 · n=23 7.11-1.90 · n=22 6.63-2.56 · n=21 KMSP MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KMSY 1.68+1.34 · n=30 1.80+1.40 · n=29 1.58+1.17 · n=28 1.70+1.00 · n=27 2.07+1.29 · n=26 2.17+1.45 · n=25 2.27+0.99 · n=24 1.96+0.96 · n=23 2.14+0.94 · n=22 2.11+0.86 · n=21 KMSY MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KNYC 4.57+4.57 · n=30 4.92+4.92 · n=29 4.46+4.46 · n=28 5.21+5.21 · n=27 5.25+5.25 · n=26 5.08+4.47 · n=25 5.58+5.05 · n=24 5.37+4.93 · n=23 5.12+4.73 · n=22 5.32+4.64 · n=21 KNYC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KOKC 2.65+1.35 · n=30 3.01+2.08 · n=29 3.37+2.86 · n=28 5.32+4.45 · n=27 5.23+4.84 · n=26 5.32+4.38 · n=25 5.62+4.01 · n=24 5.50+3.17 · n=23 4.90+1.71 · n=22 5.60+2.42 · n=21 KOKC MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KORD 1.76+0.40 · n=30 1.65+0.41 · n=29 1.88+0.46 · n=28 2.27+0.79 · n=27 2.45+0.57 · n=26 3.20+1.30 · n=25 3.94+0.62 · n=24 3.64-0.27 · n=23 5.17-0.17 · n=22 5.58-0.53 · n=21 KORD MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHL 1.45+0.24 · n=30 1.85+0.08 · n=29 1.94+0.17 · n=28 1.83+0.67 · n=27 2.31+0.14 · n=26 2.61-0.10 · n=25 3.08+0.32 · n=24 3.48+0.40 · n=23 3.57+0.38 · n=22 4.19-0.06 · n=21 KPHL MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KPHX 4.44+3.22 · n=30 4.07+3.12 · n=29 4.23+3.16 · n=28 4.11+3.26 · n=27 4.17+3.93 · n=26 4.57+3.68 · n=25 4.51+3.47 · n=24 4.38+2.85 · n=23 5.10+3.88 · n=22 —KPHX MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAN 2.14+2.03 · n=30 2.37+2.26 · n=29 2.54+2.39 · n=28 2.63+2.40 · n=27 2.49+2.28 · n=26 2.46+2.35 · n=25 2.35+2.31 · n=24 2.34+2.34 · n=23 2.08+1.70 · n=22 —KSAN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSAT 1.69-0.14 · n=30 1.96-0.37 · n=29 2.11-0.66 · n=28 1.96-0.63 · n=27 2.12-0.80 · n=26 2.15-0.86 · n=25 2.15-0.87 · n=24 2.04-1.22 · n=23 1.73-1.01 · n=22 2.07-1.08 · n=21 KSAT MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSEA 1.35-0.67 · n=30 1.38-0.95 · n=29 1.37-0.70 · n=28 1.65-0.50 · n=27 1.90-1.00 · n=26 2.03-1.35 · n=25 2.56-1.10 · n=24 2.83-0.70 · n=23 3.04-0.46 · n=22 —KSEA MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KSFO 1.05-0.34 · n=30 0.91-0.19 · n=29 0.93-0.24 · n=28 0.82-0.35 · n=27 1.04-0.52 · n=26 0.98-0.63 · n=25 1.06-0.74 · n=24 1.15-0.41 · n=23 0.98-0.38 · n=22 —KSFO MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin
KTTN 3.35+3.34 · n=30 3.63+3.39 · n=29 3.34+3.01 · n=28 4.42+4.24 · n=27 4.05+3.49 · n=26 4.05+3.01 · n=25 4.60+3.44 · n=24 5.05+3.23 · n=23 4.60+3.47 · n=22 5.67+3.29 · n=21 KTTN MAE by lead day 1 to 9, tmin

Up to 2 of the scored days in this table carry a QC flag on the observation (a CLI value that disagreed with the hourly observations, or a fallback source). They are kept in the scores and counted here rather than dropped — see methodology.

Month by month

MAE °F at lead day 1, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum, per station.

MonthKATLKAUSKBOSKDCAKDENKDFWKEWRKIAHKLASKLAXKMIAKMSPKMSYKNYCKOKCKORDKPHLKPHXKSANKSATKSEAKSFOKTTN
2026-08 2.45-0.88 · n=291.47-1.20 · n=292.85-0.93 · n=283.74-2.71 · n=293.85-2.77 · n=291.73+1.34 · n=291.99-0.97 · n=291.24-0.36 · n=295.14-4.42 · n=292.06-0.58 · n=291.65-1.39 · n=293.29+1.70 · n=294.69-4.41 · n=293.80+3.18 · n=292.67+1.96 · n=292.57-1.96 · n=292.88-2.49 · n=292.91-2.59 · n=292.68-2.65 · n=291.76-1.45 · n=294.27+3.22 · n=294.75-4.49 · n=292.94+0.58 · n=29

Source and licence

Where it comes from

gfs · pgrb2.0p25

Steps every 6 h to 240 h; sampled at 00/06/12/18 UTC only.

Licence

NOAA/NCEP, U.S. Government work, public domain.

Post-processing

None. Raw grid values, bilinear (headline) or nearest-node interpolation, no MOS, no bias correction, no downscaling.

All scores as JSON scores_latest.csv daily_errors.csv.gz data & licences