Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Newark Liberty · NCEP GFS · lead day 5

KEWR · gfs · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC3.54 [2.82, 4.25]3.58-1.32 [-3.04, 0.39]4.76 [3.61, 5.77]32% [17%, 44%]44%52%+0.09+0.052026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC3.54 [2.82, 4.29]3.58-1.32 [-3.18, 0.62]4.76 [3.55, 5.83]32% [12%, 44%]44%52%+0.09+0.052026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC3.54 [2.82, 4.38]3.58-1.32 [-3.60, 0.72]4.76 [3.49, 5.96]32% [13%, 44%]44%52%+0.09+0.052026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall25 1 QC3.54 [2.83, 4.47]3.58-1.32 [-3.61, 0.65]4.76 [3.53, 6.08]32% [12%, 45%]44%52%+0.09+0.052026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d25 1 QC3.99 [3.08, 4.88]4.06-0.28 [-2.43, 1.91]5.26 [3.97, 6.34]20% [9%, 30%]40%56%-0.03-0.072026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d25 1 QC3.99 [2.99, 4.97]4.06-0.28 [-2.69, 2.30]5.26 [3.86, 6.47]20% [8%, 31%]40%56%-0.03-0.072026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d25 1 QC3.99 [2.94, 5.04]4.06-0.28 [-3.04, 2.44]5.26 [3.69, 6.67]20% [7%, 31%]40%56%-0.03-0.072026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall25 1 QC3.99 [2.95, 5.10]4.06-0.28 [-3.11, 2.33]5.26 [3.72, 6.70]20% [7%, 30%]40%56%-0.03-0.072026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d25 1 QC2.88 [1.75, 3.85]2.98-1.20 [-2.57, 0.58]4.29 [2.11, 5.61]24% [11%, 41%]44%72%+0.26+0.212026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d25 1 QC2.88 [1.67, 3.84]2.98-1.20 [-2.64, 0.97]4.29 [1.93, 5.65]24% [9%, 46%]44%72%+0.26+0.212026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d25 1 QC2.88 [1.68, 3.86]2.98-1.20 [-2.66, 1.02]4.29 [1.97, 5.66]24% [8%, 44%]44%72%+0.26+0.212026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall25 1 QC2.88 [1.52, 3.83]2.98-1.20 [-2.69, 1.01]4.29 [1.84, 5.65]24% [8%, 44%]44%72%+0.26+0.212026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d25 1 QC3.08 [2.13, 4.08]3.11-0.21 [-1.76, 1.80]4.67 [2.72, 6.02]32% [25%, 40%]64%64%+0.21+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d25 1 QC3.08 [2.04, 4.12]3.11-0.21 [-1.83, 2.22]4.67 [2.62, 6.09]32% [25%, 40%]64%64%+0.21+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d25 1 QC3.08 [2.03, 4.15]3.11-0.21 [-1.87, 2.23]4.67 [2.62, 6.07]32% [25%, 42%]64%64%+0.21+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall25 1 QC3.08 [2.03, 4.08]3.11-0.21 [-1.90, 2.21]4.67 [2.63, 6.03]32% [25%, 41%]64%64%+0.21+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC3.89 [3.13, 4.75]2.98+2.94 [1.66, 4.16]4.70 [3.77, 5.60]16% [4%, 27%]28%48%-0.33-0.052026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC3.89 [3.03, 4.86]2.98+2.94 [1.55, 4.34]4.70 [3.61, 5.80]16% [0%, 29%]28%48%-0.33-0.052026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC3.89 [3.00, 4.85]2.98+2.94 [1.41, 4.35]4.70 [3.53, 5.74]16% [0%, 29%]28%48%-0.33-0.052026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall25 1 QC3.89 [2.94, 4.77]2.98+2.94 [1.40, 4.29]4.70 [3.49, 5.77]16% [0%, 29%]28%48%-0.33-0.052026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d25 1 QC3.47 [2.80, 4.27]3.01+2.02 [0.67, 3.31]4.23 [3.41, 5.08]12% [4%, 21%]32%52%-0.19-0.062026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d25 1 QC3.47 [2.73, 4.38]3.01+2.02 [0.58, 3.54]4.23 [3.25, 5.26]12% [0%, 21%]32%52%-0.19-0.062026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d25 1 QC3.47 [2.68, 4.30]3.01+2.02 [0.42, 3.54]4.23 [3.10, 5.18]12% [0%, 21%]32%52%-0.19-0.062026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall25 1 QC3.47 [2.66, 4.30]3.01+2.02 [0.38, 3.48]4.23 [3.09, 5.23]12% [0%, 22%]32%52%-0.19-0.062026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d25 1 QC3.89 [2.99, 4.89]2.95+2.90 [1.87, 4.12]4.59 [3.55, 5.47]8% [0%, 15%]36%40%-0.33-0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d25 1 QC3.89 [2.96, 5.07]2.95+2.90 [1.78, 4.29]4.59 [3.50, 5.67]8% [0%, 14%]36%40%-0.33-0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d25 1 QC3.89 [2.97, 5.00]2.95+2.90 [1.72, 4.29]4.59 [3.46, 5.65]8% [0%, 14%]36%40%-0.33-0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall25 1 QC3.89 [2.83, 5.01]2.95+2.90 [1.72, 4.29]4.59 [3.27, 5.67]8% [0%, 14%]36%40%-0.33-0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d25 1 QC3.52 [2.59, 4.53]3.07+1.98 [0.87, 3.22]4.19 [3.07, 5.06]20% [5%, 37%]32%40%-0.20-0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d25 1 QC3.52 [2.51, 4.79]3.07+1.98 [0.81, 3.39]4.19 [2.99, 5.25]20% [0%, 38%]32%40%-0.20-0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d25 1 QC3.52 [2.43, 4.72]3.07+1.98 [0.76, 3.39]4.19 [2.90, 5.21]20% [0%, 40%]32%40%-0.20-0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall25 1 QC3.52 [2.36, 4.69]3.07+1.98 [0.75, 3.46]4.19 [2.81, 5.17]20% [0%, 43%]32%40%-0.20-0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KEWR, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-06: -3.07 °F2026-08-07: -1.64 °F2026-08-08: -5.79 °F2026-08-09: +1.71 °F2026-08-10: +2.83 °F2026-08-11: +4.67 °F2026-08-12: -0.73 °F2026-08-13: -0.66 °F2026-08-14: -9.14 °F2026-08-15: -4.44 °F2026-08-16: +4.01 °F2026-08-17: +1.54 °F2026-08-18: -0.6 °F2026-08-19: -0.61 °F2026-08-20: +0.37 °F2026-08-21: -9.33 °F2026-08-22: -6.06 °F2026-08-23: -11.87 °F2026-08-24: -0.1 °F2026-08-25: -3.66 °F2026-08-26: +0.42 °F2026-08-27: +5.06 °F2026-08-28: -2.96 °F2026-08-29: +7.26 °F2026-08-30: -0.1 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.10
2026-08-29+7.26
2026-08-28-2.96
2026-08-27+5.06
2026-08-26+0.42
2026-08-25-3.66
2026-08-24-0.10
2026-08-23-11.87
2026-08-22-6.06
2026-08-21-9.33
2026-08-20+0.37
2026-08-19-0.61
2026-08-18-0.60
2026-08-17+1.54
2026-08-16+4.01
2026-08-15-4.44
2026-08-14-9.14
2026-08-13-0.66
2026-08-12-0.73
2026-08-11+4.67
2026-08-10+2.83
2026-08-09+1.71
2026-08-08-5.79
2026-08-07-1.64
2026-08-06-3.07

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KEWR, lead day 5-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 2 days-8 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to 0 °F: 7 days0 to 2 °F: 4 days2 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 6 °F: 3 days6 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.96 · P90 |e| 8.39 °F-200+20 °Fn = 25 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.002
-8.00-6.001
-6.00-4.002
-4.00-2.003
-2.00+0.007
+0.00+2.004
+2.00+4.001
+4.00+6.003
+6.00+8.001
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08253.54 -1.32

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 25 -0.03 [-0.96, 0.96] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -0.81 [-2.31, 0.61] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 +0.02 [-1.74, 0.93] no
Persistence (baseline) 25 -0.34 [-2.52, 1.49] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KEWR gfs lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/gfs/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KEWR (Newark Liberty), model gfs, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/gfs/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence