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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Newark Liberty · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 5

KEWR · aifs_single · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC3.58 [3.15, 3.97]2.05-3.05 [-3.62, -2.39]3.98 [3.64, 4.27]12% [4%, 20%]20%32%+0.08+0.462026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC3.58 [3.19, 3.96]2.05-3.05 [-3.64, -2.38]3.98 [3.65, 4.23]12% [0%, 21%]20%32%+0.08+0.462026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC3.58 [3.16, 4.04]2.05-3.05 [-3.67, -2.25]3.98 [3.59, 4.31]12% [0%, 21%]20%32%+0.08+0.462026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall25 1 QC3.58 [3.11, 4.00]2.05-3.05 [-3.71, -2.30]3.98 [3.57, 4.28]12% [0%, 21%]20%32%+0.08+0.462026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d25 1 QC3.64 [3.25, 4.03]2.07-3.08 [-3.67, -2.40]4.02 [3.67, 4.29]12% [0%, 24%]20%36%+0.06+0.452026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d25 1 QC3.64 [3.28, 4.03]2.07-3.08 [-3.66, -2.41]4.02 [3.69, 4.25]12% [0%, 24%]20%36%+0.06+0.452026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d25 1 QC3.64 [3.24, 4.07]2.07-3.08 [-3.71, -2.27]4.02 [3.65, 4.28]12% [0%, 25%]20%36%+0.06+0.452026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall25 1 QC3.64 [3.22, 4.06]2.07-3.08 [-3.71, -2.34]4.02 [3.61, 4.26]12% [0%, 27%]20%36%+0.06+0.452026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.17 [2.65, 3.78]1.87-2.95 [-3.71, -2.26]3.66 [3.29, 4.12]21% [5%, 39%]38%42%+0.17+0.492026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.17 [2.61, 3.93]1.87-2.95 [-3.84, -2.16]3.66 [3.23, 4.26]21% [0%, 44%]38%42%+0.17+0.492026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.17 [2.57, 3.85]1.87-2.95 [-3.80, -2.09]3.66 [3.22, 4.20]21% [0%, 44%]38%42%+0.17+0.492026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.17 [2.55, 3.91]1.87-2.95 [-3.87, -2.14]3.66 [3.23, 4.23]21% [0%, 44%]38%42%+0.17+0.492026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC3.21 [2.72, 3.77]1.92-2.94 [-3.68, -2.22]3.69 [3.32, 4.08]21% [5%, 39%]38%42%+0.16+0.482026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC3.21 [2.67, 3.89]1.92-2.94 [-3.81, -2.13]3.69 [3.28, 4.18]21% [0%, 44%]38%42%+0.16+0.482026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC3.21 [2.64, 3.88]1.92-2.94 [-3.76, -2.04]3.69 [3.22, 4.13]21% [0%, 44%]38%42%+0.16+0.482026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC3.21 [2.65, 3.86]1.92-2.94 [-3.80, -2.10]3.69 [3.27, 4.19]21% [0%, 44%]38%42%+0.16+0.482026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC2.89 [2.27, 3.55]2.51+1.44 [0.34, 2.58]3.52 [2.60, 4.36]12% [0%, 23%]36%68%+0.01+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC2.89 [2.19, 3.59]2.51+1.44 [0.27, 2.70]3.52 [2.42, 4.42]12% [0%, 24%]36%68%+0.01+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC2.89 [2.09, 3.69]2.51+1.44 [0.23, 2.72]3.52 [2.29, 4.52]12% [0%, 25%]36%68%+0.01+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall25 1 QC2.89 [2.17, 3.67]2.51+1.44 [0.14, 2.81]3.52 [2.37, 4.46]12% [0%, 25%]36%68%+0.01+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d25 1 QC2.66 [2.12, 3.19]2.61+0.53 [-0.64, 1.71]3.34 [2.51, 4.01]20% [4%, 36%]40%64%+0.09+0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d25 1 QC2.66 [1.99, 3.23]2.61+0.53 [-0.69, 1.83]3.34 [2.33, 4.02]20% [0%, 38%]40%64%+0.09+0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d25 1 QC2.66 [1.96, 3.30]2.61+0.53 [-0.78, 1.82]3.34 [2.28, 4.09]20% [0%, 38%]40%64%+0.09+0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall25 1 QC2.66 [2.06, 3.25]2.61+0.53 [-0.86, 1.90]3.34 [2.38, 4.07]20% [0%, 38%]40%64%+0.09+0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC2.78 [2.24, 3.36]2.54+1.20 [0.13, 2.34]3.35 [2.52, 4.13]8% [0%, 19%]33%67%+0.06+0.102026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC2.78 [2.17, 3.43]2.54+1.20 [0.05, 2.48]3.35 [2.49, 4.20]8% [0%, 23%]33%67%+0.06+0.102026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC2.78 [2.16, 3.48]2.54+1.20 [0.01, 2.55]3.35 [2.45, 4.30]8% [0%, 22%]33%67%+0.06+0.102026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC2.78 [2.12, 3.48]2.54+1.20 [-0.06, 2.59]3.35 [2.44, 4.25]8% [0%, 23%]33%67%+0.06+0.102026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC2.65 [2.22, 3.02]2.63+0.27 [-0.80, 1.39]3.19 [2.53, 3.74]17% [4%, 32%]42%67%+0.10+0.072026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC2.65 [2.15, 3.02]2.63+0.27 [-0.89, 1.53]3.19 [2.44, 3.76]17% [0%, 38%]42%67%+0.10+0.072026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC2.65 [2.13, 3.09]2.63+0.27 [-0.87, 1.55]3.19 [2.40, 3.84]17% [0%, 38%]42%67%+0.10+0.072026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC2.65 [2.12, 3.08]2.63+0.27 [-1.00, 1.58]3.19 [2.44, 3.80]17% [0%, 36%]42%67%+0.10+0.072026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KEWR, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-06: -4.55 °F2026-08-07: -4.05 °F2026-08-08: -4.66 °F2026-08-09: -3.05 °F2026-08-10: +0.76 °F2026-08-11: -2.52 °F2026-08-12: -7.11 °F2026-08-13: -1.95 °F2026-08-14: -4.32 °F2026-08-15: -5.02 °F2026-08-16: -0.92 °F2026-08-17: +2.52 °F2026-08-18: -5.55 °F2026-08-19: -6.19 °F2026-08-20: -3.34 °F2026-08-21: +0.22 °F2026-08-22: +1.04 °F2026-08-23: -4.75 °F2026-08-24: -3.92 °F2026-08-25: -4.27 °F2026-08-26: -3.32 °F2026-08-27: -3.26 °F2026-08-28: -5.75 °F2026-08-29: -4.36 °F2026-08-30: +2.05 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+2.05
2026-08-29-4.36
2026-08-28-5.75
2026-08-27-3.26
2026-08-26-3.32
2026-08-25-4.27
2026-08-24-3.92
2026-08-23-4.75
2026-08-22+1.04
2026-08-21+0.22
2026-08-20-3.34
2026-08-19-6.19
2026-08-18-5.55
2026-08-17+2.52
2026-08-16-0.92
2026-08-15-5.02
2026-08-14-4.32
2026-08-13-1.95
2026-08-12-7.11
2026-08-11-2.52
2026-08-10+0.76
2026-08-09-3.05
2026-08-08-4.66
2026-08-07-4.05
2026-08-06-4.55

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KEWR, lead day 5-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 3 days-5 to -4 °F: 7 days-4 to -3 °F: 5 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 2 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.92 · P90 |e| 5.67 °F-100+10 °Fn = 25 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.003
-5.00-4.007
-4.00-3.005
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.002
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.002
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08253.58 -3.05

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 25 +0.03 [-0.96, 0.96] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -0.78 [-1.69, 0.10] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 -0.15 [-1.52, 1.13] no
Persistence (baseline) 25 -0.30 [-1.99, 1.28] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KEWR aifs_single lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/aifs_single/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KEWR (Newark Liberty), model aifs_single, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/aifs_single/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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