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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Newark Liberty · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 5

KEWR · ifs_hres · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC3.70 [2.95, 4.62]2.80-2.50 [-4.00, -1.01]4.20 [3.53, 5.13]17% [0%, 36%]22%44%-0.11+0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC3.70 [2.76, 4.97]2.80-2.50 [-4.69, -0.86]4.20 [3.42, 5.58]17% [0%, 40%]22%44%-0.11+0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC3.70 [2.66, 4.96]2.80-2.50 [-4.68, -0.81]4.20 [3.31, 5.53]17% [0%, 40%]22%44%-0.11+0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 1 QC3.70 [2.78, 4.89]2.80-2.50 [-4.39, -0.92]4.20 [3.42, 5.28]17% [0%, 40%]22%44%-0.11+0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 1 QC3.44 [2.74, 4.24]2.81-1.99 [-3.50, -0.39]4.00 [3.43, 4.81]11% [0%, 29%]28%44%-0.03+0.072026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 1 QC3.44 [2.46, 4.60]2.81-1.99 [-4.31, -0.24]4.00 [3.26, 5.20]11% [0%, 33%]28%44%-0.03+0.072026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 1 QC3.44 [2.42, 4.60]2.81-1.99 [-4.20, -0.18]4.00 [3.18, 5.15]11% [0%, 35%]28%44%-0.03+0.072026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 1 QC3.44 [2.50, 4.48]2.81-1.99 [-3.99, -0.35]4.00 [3.27, 4.93]11% [0%, 38%]28%44%-0.03+0.072026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d20 1 QC3.35 [2.82, 3.93]2.41-2.24 [-3.73, -0.91]3.78 [3.35, 4.32]15% [0%, 38%]35%45%+0.00+0.162026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d20 1 QC3.35 [2.73, 4.07]2.41-2.24 [-4.00, -0.81]3.78 [3.24, 4.56]15% [0%, 44%]35%45%+0.00+0.162026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d20 1 QC3.35 [2.59, 4.18]2.41-2.24 [-4.01, -0.77]3.78 [3.17, 4.47]15% [0%, 46%]35%45%+0.00+0.162026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall20 1 QC3.35 [2.67, 4.20]2.41-2.24 [-4.07, -0.72]3.78 [3.21, 4.51]15% [0%, 50%]35%45%+0.00+0.162026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d20 1 QC3.16 [2.50, 3.68]2.52-1.86 [-3.28, -0.52]3.65 [3.16, 4.02]10% [0%, 33%]35%45%+0.06+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d20 1 QC3.16 [2.34, 3.81]2.52-1.86 [-3.49, -0.37]3.65 [3.05, 4.12]10% [0%, 43%]35%45%+0.06+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d20 1 QC3.16 [2.26, 3.94]2.52-1.86 [-3.60, -0.24]3.65 [2.94, 4.18]10% [0%, 44%]35%45%+0.06+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall20 1 QC3.16 [2.29, 3.89]2.52-1.86 [-3.62, -0.29]3.65 [2.96, 4.16]10% [0%, 50%]35%45%+0.06+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC3.05 [2.12, 4.01]2.84+1.48 [-0.42, 3.24]3.77 [2.59, 4.75]17% [0%, 38%]44%56%-0.14-0.112026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC3.05 [1.96, 4.15]2.84+1.48 [-1.48, 3.43]3.77 [2.21, 4.79]17% [0%, 40%]44%56%-0.14-0.112026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC3.05 [1.97, 4.19]2.84+1.48 [-1.50, 3.48]3.77 [2.21, 4.82]17% [0%, 44%]44%56%-0.14-0.112026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 1 QC3.05 [1.95, 4.19]2.84+1.48 [-1.34, 3.36]3.77 [2.26, 4.81]17% [0%, 43%]44%56%-0.14-0.112026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 1 QC3.03 [2.35, 3.70]2.93+0.79 [-1.03, 2.57]3.68 [2.87, 4.37]17% [8%, 25%]39%56%-0.13-0.142026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 1 QC3.03 [2.08, 3.78]2.93+0.79 [-1.94, 2.82]3.68 [2.61, 4.39]17% [0%, 24%]39%56%-0.13-0.142026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 1 QC3.03 [2.07, 3.81]2.93+0.79 [-1.95, 2.85]3.68 [2.61, 4.39]17% [0%, 25%]39%56%-0.13-0.142026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 1 QC3.03 [2.08, 3.82]2.93+0.79 [-1.93, 2.73]3.68 [2.55, 4.41]17% [0%, 25%]39%56%-0.13-0.142026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d20 1 QC2.52 [1.88, 3.15]2.49+1.34 [-0.24, 2.46]3.25 [2.51, 3.81]30% [18%, 40%]50%60%+0.07+0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d20 1 QC2.52 [1.87, 3.15]2.49+1.34 [-1.23, 2.57]3.25 [2.49, 3.84]30% [12%, 40%]50%60%+0.07+0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d20 1 QC2.52 [1.97, 3.15]2.49+1.34 [-1.31, 2.72]3.25 [2.55, 3.80]30% [0%, 40%]50%60%+0.07+0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall20 1 QC2.52 [1.93, 3.17]2.49+1.34 [-0.92, 2.66]3.25 [2.53, 3.80]30% [0%, 40%]50%60%+0.07+0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d20 1 QC2.54 [2.11, 3.03]2.56+0.70 [-0.89, 1.88]3.14 [2.57, 3.60]25% [6%, 47%]45%65%+0.06-0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d20 1 QC2.54 [2.10, 3.23]2.56+0.70 [-1.83, 1.99]3.14 [2.54, 3.61]25% [0%, 45%]45%65%+0.06-0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d20 1 QC2.54 [2.14, 3.29]2.56+0.70 [-1.96, 2.16]3.14 [2.60, 3.60]25% [0%, 50%]45%65%+0.06-0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall20 1 QC2.54 [2.13, 3.22]2.56+0.70 [-1.60, 2.05]3.14 [2.54, 3.63]25% [0%, 50%]45%65%+0.06-0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KEWR, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-06: -7.25 °F2026-08-12: -0.75 °F2026-08-13: -6.22 °F2026-08-14: -3.35 °F2026-08-16: +2.74 °F2026-08-17: +3 °F2026-08-19: -4.75 °F2026-08-20: +4.03 °F2026-08-21: -2.57 °F2026-08-22: -6.94 °F2026-08-23: -3.5 °F2026-08-24: -3.71 °F2026-08-25: -5.8 °F2026-08-26: -2.98 °F2026-08-27: +0.98 °F2026-08-28: -5.62 °F2026-08-29: -1.76 °F2026-08-30: -0.6 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.60
2026-08-29-1.76
2026-08-28-5.62
2026-08-27+0.98
2026-08-26-2.98
2026-08-25-5.80
2026-08-24-3.71
2026-08-23-3.50
2026-08-22-6.94
2026-08-21-2.57
2026-08-20+4.03
2026-08-19-4.75
2026-08-18—
2026-08-17+3.00
2026-08-16+2.74
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14-3.35
2026-08-13-6.22
2026-08-12-0.75
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06-7.25

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KEWR, lead day 5-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 3 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 2 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 1 day5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.42 · P90 |e| 6.44 °F-100+10 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.003
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.002
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.001
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08183.70 -2.50

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 +0.15 [-1.13, 1.52] no
NCEP GFS 18 -0.02 [-0.93, 1.74] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -0.33 [-1.59, 0.74] no
Persistence (baseline) 18 +0.36 [-1.12, 1.45] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KEWR ifs_hres lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KEWR (Newark Liberty), model ifs_hres, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence