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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New Orleans Intl · NCEP GFS · lead day 5

KMSY · gfs · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC3.38 [2.77, 3.98]1.72-2.97 [-3.76, -2.21]3.94 [3.11, 4.64]8% [0%, 18%]24%44%-0.26+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC3.38 [2.67, 4.06]1.72-2.97 [-3.82, -2.13]3.94 [2.94, 4.74]8% [0%, 22%]24%44%-0.26+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC3.38 [2.67, 4.04]1.72-2.97 [-3.94, -2.14]3.94 [2.92, 4.73]8% [0%, 22%]24%44%-0.26+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall25 1 QC3.38 [2.64, 4.03]1.72-2.97 [-3.87, -2.13]3.94 [2.89, 4.72]8% [0%, 22%]24%44%-0.26+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d25 1 QC3.54 [2.93, 4.14]1.75-3.13 [-3.94, -2.34]4.11 [3.28, 4.82]8% [0%, 18%]24%44%-0.32+0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d25 1 QC3.54 [2.83, 4.22]1.75-3.13 [-3.98, -2.25]4.11 [3.11, 4.92]8% [0%, 22%]24%44%-0.32+0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d25 1 QC3.54 [2.83, 4.20]1.75-3.13 [-4.10, -2.27]4.11 [3.09, 4.92]8% [0%, 22%]24%44%-0.32+0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall25 1 QC3.54 [2.79, 4.18]1.75-3.13 [-4.06, -2.25]4.11 [3.05, 4.91]8% [0%, 22%]24%44%-0.32+0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d25 1 QC4.31 [3.53, 5.04]1.98-3.97 [-4.81, -3.11]4.82 [4.08, 5.46]8% [0%, 19%]12%24%-0.61+0.272026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d25 1 QC4.31 [3.43, 5.13]1.98-3.97 [-4.98, -3.05]4.82 [3.90, 5.59]8% [0%, 20%]12%24%-0.61+0.272026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d25 1 QC4.31 [3.43, 5.15]1.98-3.97 [-5.07, -3.05]4.82 [3.99, 5.62]8% [0%, 21%]12%24%-0.61+0.272026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall25 1 QC4.31 [3.43, 5.09]1.98-3.97 [-5.00, -3.06]4.82 [3.89, 5.52]8% [0%, 20%]12%24%-0.61+0.272026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d25 1 QC4.42 [3.64, 5.14]2.02-4.09 [-4.93, -3.21]4.93 [4.21, 5.56]8% [0%, 19%]8%24%-0.65+0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d25 1 QC4.42 [3.53, 5.21]2.02-4.09 [-5.10, -3.14]4.93 [4.02, 5.69]8% [0%, 20%]8%24%-0.65+0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d25 1 QC4.42 [3.56, 5.25]2.02-4.09 [-5.19, -3.16]4.93 [4.12, 5.74]8% [0%, 21%]8%24%-0.65+0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall25 1 QC4.42 [3.53, 5.19]2.02-4.09 [-5.14, -3.16]4.93 [4.02, 5.62]8% [0%, 20%]8%24%-0.65+0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC2.17 [1.23, 3.10]1.77+1.45 [0.31, 2.46]2.68 [1.61, 3.54]28% [5%, 48%]60%68%-0.29-0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC2.17 [1.24, 3.25]1.77+1.45 [0.14, 2.80]2.68 [1.62, 3.67]28% [0%, 49%]60%68%-0.29-0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC2.17 [1.15, 3.26]1.77+1.45 [-0.01, 2.82]2.68 [1.46, 3.67]28% [0%, 52%]60%68%-0.29-0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall25 1 QC2.17 [1.19, 3.31]1.77+1.45 [0.16, 2.76]2.68 [1.50, 3.68]28% [0%, 50%]60%68%-0.29-0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d25 1 QC2.19 [1.23, 3.12]1.78+1.49 [0.35, 2.51]2.70 [1.62, 3.55]28% [5%, 48%]60%68%-0.30-0.052026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d25 1 QC2.19 [1.24, 3.26]1.78+1.49 [0.19, 2.85]2.70 [1.62, 3.69]28% [0%, 49%]60%68%-0.30-0.052026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d25 1 QC2.19 [1.16, 3.28]1.78+1.49 [0.02, 2.88]2.70 [1.47, 3.69]28% [0%, 52%]60%68%-0.30-0.052026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall25 1 QC2.19 [1.20, 3.32]1.78+1.49 [0.20, 2.82]2.70 [1.52, 3.71]28% [0%, 50%]60%68%-0.30-0.052026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d25 1 QC2.10 [1.29, 2.97]1.98+1.15 [-0.08, 2.28]2.64 [1.73, 3.41]28% [9%, 43%]52%68%-0.25-0.162026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d25 1 QC2.10 [1.33, 3.08]1.98+1.15 [-0.27, 2.47]2.64 [1.74, 3.55]28% [6%, 44%]52%68%-0.25-0.162026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d25 1 QC2.10 [1.15, 3.18]1.98+1.15 [-0.40, 2.55]2.64 [1.53, 3.59]28% [0%, 44%]52%68%-0.25-0.162026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall25 1 QC2.10 [1.17, 3.19]1.98+1.15 [-0.32, 2.48]2.64 [1.53, 3.58]28% [0%, 43%]52%68%-0.25-0.162026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d25 1 QC2.12 [1.29, 3.00]1.99+1.19 [-0.05, 2.33]2.66 [1.73, 3.42]32% [12%, 47%]52%68%-0.26-0.172026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d25 1 QC2.12 [1.33, 3.10]1.99+1.19 [-0.23, 2.52]2.66 [1.75, 3.55]32% [6%, 48%]52%68%-0.26-0.172026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d25 1 QC2.12 [1.15, 3.19]1.99+1.19 [-0.36, 2.60]2.66 [1.53, 3.58]32% [0%, 50%]52%68%-0.26-0.172026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall25 1 QC2.12 [1.17, 3.21]1.99+1.19 [-0.28, 2.53]2.66 [1.53, 3.58]32% [0%, 50%]52%68%-0.26-0.172026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KMSY, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-06: -4.5 °F2026-08-07: -2.51 °F2026-08-08: -2.55 °F2026-08-09: -3.06 °F2026-08-10: -1.61 °F2026-08-11: -3.01 °F2026-08-12: -0.41 °F2026-08-13: -3.66 °F2026-08-14: -2.59 °F2026-08-15: -7.32 °F2026-08-16: -8.08 °F2026-08-17: -2.68 °F2026-08-18: -3.09 °F2026-08-19: -1.77 °F2026-08-20: -3.44 °F2026-08-21: -3.41 °F2026-08-22: -3.16 °F2026-08-23: -1.14 °F2026-08-24: -1.46 °F2026-08-25: -6.15 °F2026-08-26: -2.42 °F2026-08-27: +5.11 °F2026-08-28: -3.82 °F2026-08-29: -7.38 °F2026-08-30: -0.19 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.19
2026-08-29-7.38
2026-08-28-3.82
2026-08-27+5.11
2026-08-26-2.42
2026-08-25-6.15
2026-08-24-1.46
2026-08-23-1.14
2026-08-22-3.16
2026-08-21-3.41
2026-08-20-3.44
2026-08-19-1.77
2026-08-18-3.09
2026-08-17-2.68
2026-08-16-8.08
2026-08-15-7.32
2026-08-14-2.59
2026-08-13-3.66
2026-08-12-0.41
2026-08-11-3.01
2026-08-10-1.61
2026-08-09-3.06
2026-08-08-2.55
2026-08-07-2.51
2026-08-06-4.50

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KMSY, lead day 5-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 2 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 8 days-3 to -2 °F: 5 days-2 to -1 °F: 4 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.06 · P90 |e| 6.85 °F-100+10 °Fn = 25 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.002
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.008
-3.00-2.005
-2.00-1.004
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08253.38 -2.97

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 25 -1.13 [-2.25, -0.20] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -1.87 [-2.83, -0.95] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 -1.75 [-2.80, -0.21] yes
Persistence (baseline) 25 +0.70 [-0.85, 1.94] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSY gfs lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/gfs/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSY (New Orleans Intl), model gfs, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/gfs/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence