Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New Orleans Intl · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 5

KMSY · aifs_single · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC4.51 [3.99, 5.05]1.22-4.51 [-5.05, -3.99]4.77 [4.18, 5.32]0% [0%, 0%]4%20%-0.68+0.552026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC4.51 [4.03, 5.13]1.22-4.51 [-5.13, -4.03]4.77 [4.23, 5.41]0% [0%, 0%]4%20%-0.68+0.552026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC4.51 [3.95, 5.10]1.22-4.51 [-5.10, -3.95]4.77 [4.17, 5.35]0% [0%, 0%]4%20%-0.68+0.552026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall25 1 QC4.51 [3.93, 5.17]1.22-4.51 [-5.17, -3.93]4.77 [4.17, 5.42]0% [0%, 0%]4%20%-0.68+0.552026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d25 1 QC4.51 [3.99, 5.05]1.22-4.51 [-5.05, -3.99]4.77 [4.18, 5.32]0% [0%, 0%]4%20%-0.68+0.552026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d25 1 QC4.51 [4.03, 5.13]1.22-4.51 [-5.13, -4.03]4.77 [4.22, 5.41]0% [0%, 0%]4%20%-0.68+0.552026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d25 1 QC4.51 [3.95, 5.10]1.22-4.51 [-5.10, -3.95]4.77 [4.16, 5.35]0% [0%, 0%]4%20%-0.68+0.552026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall25 1 QC4.51 [3.93, 5.17]1.22-4.51 [-5.17, -3.93]4.77 [4.17, 5.42]0% [0%, 0%]4%20%-0.68+0.552026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC4.80 [4.34, 5.10]0.88-4.80 [-5.10, -4.34]4.94 [4.49, 5.22]0% [0%, 0%]4%4%-0.77+0.682026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC4.80 [4.35, 5.10]0.88-4.80 [-5.10, -4.35]4.94 [4.51, 5.23]0% [0%, 0%]4%4%-0.77+0.682026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC4.80 [4.34, 5.11]0.88-4.80 [-5.11, -4.34]4.94 [4.47, 5.24]0% [0%, 0%]4%4%-0.77+0.682026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC4.80 [4.18, 5.17]0.88-4.80 [-5.17, -4.18]4.94 [4.37, 5.28]0% [0%, 0%]4%4%-0.77+0.682026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC4.80 [4.35, 5.10]0.88-4.80 [-5.10, -4.35]4.95 [4.50, 5.23]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-0.77+0.682026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC4.80 [4.36, 5.11]0.88-4.80 [-5.11, -4.36]4.95 [4.51, 5.23]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-0.77+0.682026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC4.80 [4.35, 5.12]0.88-4.80 [-5.12, -4.35]4.95 [4.47, 5.25]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-0.77+0.682026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC4.80 [4.19, 5.18]0.88-4.80 [-5.18, -4.19]4.95 [4.38, 5.28]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-0.77+0.682026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC3.49 [2.82, 4.12]1.59+3.31 [2.37, 4.03]3.93 [3.02, 4.70]4% [0%, 11%]16%48%-1.08+0.072026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC3.49 [2.71, 4.11]1.59+3.31 [2.18, 4.08]3.93 [2.84, 4.70]4% [0%, 11%]16%48%-1.08+0.072026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC3.49 [2.73, 4.25]1.59+3.31 [2.16, 4.18]3.93 [2.83, 4.85]4% [0%, 12%]16%48%-1.08+0.072026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall25 1 QC3.49 [2.69, 4.24]1.59+3.31 [1.94, 4.11]3.93 [2.78, 4.85]4% [0%, 14%]16%48%-1.08+0.072026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d25 1 QC3.50 [2.83, 4.13]1.59+3.32 [2.38, 4.04]3.94 [3.03, 4.70]4% [0%, 11%]16%48%-1.08+0.072026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d25 1 QC3.50 [2.72, 4.12]1.59+3.32 [2.19, 4.09]3.94 [2.85, 4.71]4% [0%, 11%]16%48%-1.08+0.072026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d25 1 QC3.50 [2.74, 4.27]1.59+3.32 [2.17, 4.19]3.94 [2.84, 4.86]4% [0%, 12%]16%48%-1.08+0.072026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall25 1 QC3.50 [2.69, 4.25]1.59+3.32 [1.95, 4.12]3.94 [2.78, 4.85]4% [0%, 14%]16%48%-1.08+0.072026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.19 [2.53, 3.85]1.56+2.90 [1.91, 3.57]3.57 [2.75, 4.31]4% [0%, 11%]25%54%-0.82+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.19 [2.36, 3.85]1.56+2.90 [1.70, 3.60]3.57 [2.51, 4.31]4% [0%, 11%]25%54%-0.82+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.19 [2.37, 3.91]1.56+2.90 [1.68, 3.70]3.57 [2.51, 4.40]4% [0%, 12%]25%54%-0.82+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.19 [2.33, 3.98]1.56+2.90 [1.42, 3.72]3.57 [2.47, 4.44]4% [0%, 14%]25%54%-0.82+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC3.20 [2.53, 3.85]1.57+2.91 [1.91, 3.57]3.58 [2.75, 4.31]4% [0%, 11%]25%54%-0.83+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC3.20 [2.37, 3.85]1.57+2.91 [1.70, 3.61]3.58 [2.51, 4.31]4% [0%, 11%]25%54%-0.83+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC3.20 [2.38, 3.92]1.57+2.91 [1.68, 3.71]3.58 [2.51, 4.40]4% [0%, 12%]25%54%-0.83+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC3.20 [2.33, 3.98]1.57+2.91 [1.43, 3.72]3.58 [2.47, 4.44]4% [0%, 14%]25%54%-0.83+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSY, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-06: -2.99 °F2026-08-07: -5.98 °F2026-08-08: -3.94 °F2026-08-09: -5.05 °F2026-08-10: -8.16 °F2026-08-11: -6.67 °F2026-08-12: -3.87 °F2026-08-13: -4.72 °F2026-08-14: -3.86 °F2026-08-15: -4.21 °F2026-08-16: -7.65 °F2026-08-17: -2.56 °F2026-08-18: -2.35 °F2026-08-19: -4.84 °F2026-08-20: -4.25 °F2026-08-21: -6.01 °F2026-08-22: -3.27 °F2026-08-23: -4.16 °F2026-08-24: -2.86 °F2026-08-25: -4.12 °F2026-08-26: -4.68 °F2026-08-27: -3.76 °F2026-08-28: -5.68 °F2026-08-29: -5.49 °F2026-08-30: -1.68 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.68
2026-08-29-5.49
2026-08-28-5.68
2026-08-27-3.76
2026-08-26-4.68
2026-08-25-4.12
2026-08-24-2.86
2026-08-23-4.16
2026-08-22-3.27
2026-08-21-6.01
2026-08-20-4.25
2026-08-19-4.84
2026-08-18-2.35
2026-08-17-2.56
2026-08-16-7.65
2026-08-15-4.21
2026-08-14-3.86
2026-08-13-4.72
2026-08-12-3.87
2026-08-11-6.67
2026-08-10-8.16
2026-08-09-5.05
2026-08-08-3.94
2026-08-07-5.98
2026-08-06-2.99

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSY, lead day 5-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 4 days-5 to -4 °F: 7 days-4 to -3 °F: 5 days-3 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.21 · P90 |e| 6.41 °F-100+10 °Fn = 25 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.004
-5.00-4.007
-4.00-3.005
-3.00-2.004
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08254.51 -4.51

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 25 +1.13 [0.20, 2.25] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -0.74 [-1.15, -0.25] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 -0.91 [-2.13, 0.43] no
Persistence (baseline) 25 +1.83 [0.49, 2.80] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSY aifs_single lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/aifs_single/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSY (New Orleans Intl), model aifs_single, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/aifs_single/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence