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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New Orleans Intl · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 5

KMSY · ifs_hres · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC5.16 [4.01, 6.03]1.73-5.16 [-6.03, -4.01]5.55 [4.25, 6.43]0% [0%, 0%]0%17%-0.98+0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC5.16 [3.87, 6.17]1.73-5.16 [-6.17, -3.87]5.55 [4.07, 6.57]0% [0%, 0%]0%17%-0.98+0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC5.16 [3.62, 6.25]1.73-5.16 [-6.25, -3.62]5.55 [3.83, 6.59]0% [0%, 0%]0%17%-0.98+0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 1 QC5.16 [3.73, 6.18]1.73-5.16 [-6.18, -3.73]5.55 [3.94, 6.57]0% [0%, 0%]0%17%-0.98+0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 1 QC5.11 [3.97, 5.98]1.72-5.11 [-5.98, -3.97]5.51 [4.20, 6.40]0% [0%, 0%]0%17%-0.96+0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 1 QC5.11 [3.83, 6.12]1.72-5.11 [-6.12, -3.83]5.51 [4.03, 6.52]0% [0%, 0%]0%17%-0.96+0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 1 QC5.11 [3.57, 6.19]1.72-5.11 [-6.19, -3.57]5.51 [3.78, 6.56]0% [0%, 0%]0%17%-0.96+0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 1 QC5.11 [3.69, 6.14]1.72-5.11 [-6.14, -3.69]5.51 [3.91, 6.54]0% [0%, 0%]0%17%-0.96+0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d20 1 QC4.61 [3.55, 5.36]1.62-4.61 [-5.36, -3.55]5.06 [4.05, 5.85]0% [0%, 0%]5%15%-0.84+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d20 1 QC4.61 [3.28, 5.51]1.62-4.61 [-5.51, -3.28]5.06 [3.75, 5.96]0% [0%, 0%]5%15%-0.84+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d20 1 QC4.61 [2.97, 5.53]1.62-4.61 [-5.53, -2.97]5.06 [3.34, 5.99]0% [0%, 0%]5%15%-0.84+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall20 1 QC4.61 [3.35, 5.48]1.62-4.61 [-5.48, -3.35]5.06 [3.73, 6.02]0% [0%, 0%]5%15%-0.84+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d20 1 QC4.56 [3.49, 5.32]1.63-4.56 [-5.32, -3.49]5.03 [4.00, 5.82]0% [0%, 0%]5%20%-0.82+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d20 1 QC4.56 [3.23, 5.46]1.63-4.56 [-5.46, -3.23]5.03 [3.69, 5.94]0% [0%, 0%]5%20%-0.82+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d20 1 QC4.56 [2.91, 5.46]1.63-4.56 [-5.46, -2.91]5.03 [3.29, 5.96]0% [0%, 0%]5%20%-0.82+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall20 1 QC4.56 [3.29, 5.44]1.63-4.56 [-5.44, -3.29]5.03 [3.69, 5.98]0% [0%, 0%]5%20%-0.82+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC3.06 [2.09, 3.88]1.90+2.71 [1.13, 3.81]3.60 [2.50, 4.35]22% [6%, 38%]22%50%-0.38+0.142026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC3.06 [1.90, 3.91]1.90+2.71 [0.76, 3.82]3.60 [2.28, 4.37]22% [0%, 42%]22%50%-0.38+0.142026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC3.06 [1.95, 4.01]1.90+2.71 [0.63, 3.99]3.60 [2.34, 4.44]22% [0%, 42%]22%50%-0.38+0.142026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 1 QC3.06 [1.96, 4.16]1.90+2.71 [0.45, 4.16]3.60 [2.33, 4.54]22% [0%, 40%]22%50%-0.38+0.142026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 1 QC3.04 [2.09, 3.86]1.90+2.69 [1.10, 3.79]3.57 [2.49, 4.32]22% [6%, 38%]28%50%-0.37+0.152026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 1 QC3.04 [1.90, 3.89]1.90+2.69 [0.72, 3.81]3.57 [2.28, 4.35]22% [0%, 42%]28%50%-0.37+0.152026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 1 QC3.04 [1.95, 3.99]1.90+2.69 [0.60, 3.96]3.57 [2.33, 4.42]22% [0%, 42%]28%50%-0.37+0.152026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 1 QC3.04 [1.96, 4.13]1.90+2.69 [0.42, 4.13]3.57 [2.36, 4.51]22% [0%, 40%]28%50%-0.37+0.152026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d20 1 QC3.24 [2.53, 3.87]1.69+2.82 [1.62, 3.50]3.59 [2.76, 4.26]5% [0%, 17%]25%55%-0.62+0.162026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d20 1 QC3.24 [2.32, 3.90]1.69+2.82 [1.24, 3.51]3.59 [2.53, 4.25]5% [0%, 20%]25%55%-0.62+0.162026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d20 1 QC3.24 [2.38, 3.93]1.69+2.82 [1.20, 3.56]3.59 [2.64, 4.30]5% [0%, 20%]25%55%-0.62+0.162026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall20 1 QC3.24 [2.36, 4.04]1.69+2.82 [0.92, 3.68]3.59 [2.54, 4.42]5% [0%, 20%]25%55%-0.62+0.162026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d20 1 QC3.23 [2.52, 3.84]1.69+2.80 [1.59, 3.47]3.58 [2.75, 4.24]5% [0%, 17%]25%55%-0.61+0.162026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d20 1 QC3.23 [2.31, 3.88]1.69+2.80 [1.20, 3.49]3.58 [2.51, 4.23]5% [0%, 20%]25%55%-0.61+0.162026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d20 1 QC3.23 [2.35, 3.91]1.69+2.80 [1.18, 3.55]3.58 [2.63, 4.28]5% [0%, 20%]25%55%-0.61+0.162026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall20 1 QC3.23 [2.33, 4.03]1.69+2.80 [0.89, 3.66]3.58 [2.54, 4.40]5% [0%, 20%]25%55%-0.61+0.162026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSY, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-06: -2.46 °F2026-08-12: -4.19 °F2026-08-13: -6.34 °F2026-08-14: -4.02 °F2026-08-16: -2.89 °F2026-08-17: -3.31 °F2026-08-19: -4.85 °F2026-08-20: -5.38 °F2026-08-21: -8.03 °F2026-08-22: -7.04 °F2026-08-23: -3.82 °F2026-08-24: -2.31 °F2026-08-25: -3.96 °F2026-08-26: -6.83 °F2026-08-27: -4.41 °F2026-08-28: -9.2 °F2026-08-29: -8.82 °F2026-08-30: -4.99 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.99
2026-08-29-8.82
2026-08-28-9.20
2026-08-27-4.41
2026-08-26-6.83
2026-08-25-3.96
2026-08-24-2.31
2026-08-23-3.82
2026-08-22-7.04
2026-08-21-8.03
2026-08-20-5.38
2026-08-19-4.85
2026-08-18—
2026-08-17-3.31
2026-08-16-2.89
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14-4.02
2026-08-13-6.34
2026-08-12-4.19
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06-2.46

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSY, lead day 5-10 to -9 °F: 1 day-9 to -8 °F: 2 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 5 days-4 to -3 °F: 3 days-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.63 · P90 |e| 8.27 °F-100+10 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.001
-9.00-8.002
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.005
-4.00-3.003
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08185.16 -5.16

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 +0.91 [-0.43, 2.13] no
NCEP GFS 18 +1.75 [0.21, 2.80] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -0.00 [-1.70, 1.31] no
Persistence (baseline) 18 +2.55 [0.25, 3.88] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSY ifs_hres lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSY (New Orleans Intl), model ifs_hres, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSY/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence