Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · NCEP GFS · lead day 3

KDFW · gfs · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC1.92 [1.43, 2.44]1.45+1.44 [1.01, 1.82]2.47 [1.80, 3.11]37% [20%, 57%]70%81%+0.27+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC1.92 [1.41, 2.51]1.45+1.44 [0.91, 1.91]2.47 [1.73, 3.18]37% [17%, 62%]70%81%+0.27+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC1.92 [1.36, 2.59]1.45+1.44 [0.85, 1.97]2.47 [1.65, 3.25]37% [18%, 65%]70%81%+0.27+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall27 1 QC1.92 [1.32, 2.69]1.45+1.44 [0.95, 2.00]2.47 [1.64, 3.36]37% [14%, 62%]70%81%+0.27+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d27 1 QC2.06 [1.51, 2.68]1.66+1.50 [0.97, 1.93]2.79 [1.85, 3.63]33% [14%, 54%]67%74%+0.22+0.372026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d27 1 QC2.06 [1.45, 2.76]1.66+1.50 [0.88, 2.03]2.79 [1.76, 3.73]33% [10%, 57%]67%74%+0.22+0.372026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d27 1 QC2.06 [1.39, 2.78]1.66+1.50 [0.75, 2.10]2.79 [1.68, 3.79]33% [11%, 61%]67%74%+0.22+0.372026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall27 1 QC2.06 [1.35, 2.97]1.66+1.50 [0.92, 2.09]2.79 [1.64, 3.89]33% [9%, 60%]67%74%+0.22+0.372026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC1.83 [1.44, 2.30]1.35+1.40 [0.86, 1.86]2.20 [1.67, 2.69]26% [10%, 46%]63%81%+0.30+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC1.83 [1.40, 2.35]1.35+1.40 [0.73, 1.99]2.20 [1.63, 2.79]26% [9%, 50%]63%81%+0.30+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC1.83 [1.33, 2.40]1.35+1.40 [0.56, 2.09]2.20 [1.53, 2.86]26% [7%, 50%]63%81%+0.30+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall27 1 QC1.83 [1.35, 2.56]1.35+1.40 [0.74, 2.02]2.20 [1.50, 2.90]26% [7%, 53%]63%81%+0.30+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d27 1 QC1.90 [1.51, 2.34]1.31+1.43 [0.85, 1.92]2.24 [1.71, 2.73]22% [11%, 33%]67%81%+0.28+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d27 1 QC1.90 [1.50, 2.40]1.31+1.43 [0.75, 2.01]2.24 [1.68, 2.80]22% [11%, 35%]67%81%+0.28+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d27 1 QC1.90 [1.42, 2.43]1.31+1.43 [0.53, 2.07]2.24 [1.58, 2.85]22% [10%, 35%]67%81%+0.28+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall27 1 QC1.90 [1.43, 2.57]1.31+1.43 [0.74, 2.04]2.24 [1.61, 2.93]22% [9%, 36%]67%81%+0.28+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC3.48 [2.96, 4.17]1.21+3.48 [2.96, 4.17]3.84 [3.31, 4.52]4% [0%, 11%]26%30%-0.42+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC3.48 [2.96, 4.25]1.21+3.48 [2.96, 4.25]3.84 [3.30, 4.63]4% [0%, 11%]26%30%-0.42+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC3.48 [2.92, 4.40]1.21+3.48 [2.92, 4.40]3.84 [3.28, 4.77]4% [0%, 11%]26%30%-0.42+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall27 1 QC3.48 [2.93, 4.21]1.21+3.48 [2.93, 4.21]3.84 [3.25, 4.63]4% [0%, 11%]26%30%-0.42+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d27 1 QC4.06 [3.61, 4.57]1.19+4.06 [3.61, 4.57]4.35 [3.89, 4.89]0% [0%, 0%]7%26%-0.66+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d27 1 QC4.06 [3.63, 4.66]1.19+4.06 [3.63, 4.66]4.35 [3.88, 4.98]0% [0%, 0%]7%26%-0.66+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d27 1 QC4.06 [3.60, 4.76]1.19+4.06 [3.60, 4.76]4.35 [3.87, 5.09]0% [0%, 0%]7%26%-0.66+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall27 1 QC4.06 [3.62, 4.71]1.19+4.06 [3.62, 4.71]4.35 [3.88, 5.00]0% [0%, 0%]7%26%-0.66+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC3.28 [2.80, 3.93]1.20+3.28 [2.80, 3.93]3.59 [3.16, 4.15]7% [0%, 17%]22%37%-0.34+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC3.28 [2.82, 4.05]1.20+3.28 [2.82, 4.05]3.59 [3.19, 4.25]7% [0%, 17%]22%37%-0.34+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC3.28 [2.80, 4.01]1.20+3.28 [2.80, 4.01]3.59 [3.16, 4.24]7% [0%, 18%]22%37%-0.34+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall27 1 QC3.28 [2.81, 4.11]1.20+3.28 [2.81, 4.11]3.59 [3.15, 4.31]7% [0%, 17%]22%37%-0.34+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d27 1 QC3.76 [3.36, 4.37]1.55+3.72 [3.31, 4.34]4.14 [3.75, 4.68]7% [0%, 15%]19%37%-0.54+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d27 1 QC3.76 [3.36, 4.38]1.55+3.72 [3.33, 4.38]4.14 [3.76, 4.74]7% [0%, 17%]19%37%-0.54+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d27 1 QC3.76 [3.35, 4.42]1.55+3.72 [3.31, 4.40]4.14 [3.73, 4.75]7% [0%, 17%]19%37%-0.54+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall27 1 QC3.76 [3.33, 4.48]1.55+3.72 [3.30, 4.48]4.14 [3.73, 4.75]7% [0%, 17%]19%37%-0.54+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KDFW, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-04: +4.82 °F2026-08-05: +2.73 °F2026-08-06: -1.26 °F2026-08-07: +0.36 °F2026-08-08: +1.41 °F2026-08-09: +0.77 °F2026-08-10: +3.33 °F2026-08-11: +2.46 °F2026-08-12: +1.89 °F2026-08-13: +1.56 °F2026-08-14: +1.96 °F2026-08-15: +1.92 °F2026-08-16: +1.57 °F2026-08-17: +0.16 °F2026-08-18: +1.65 °F2026-08-19: +0.22 °F2026-08-20: +0.94 °F2026-08-21: +5.07 °F2026-08-22: +1.17 °F2026-08-23: -0.44 °F2026-08-24: -4.03 °F2026-08-25: +6.25 °F2026-08-26: +2.99 °F2026-08-27: +0.88 °F2026-08-28: -0.73 °F2026-08-29: +0.55 °F2026-08-30: +0.61 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+0.61
2026-08-29+0.55
2026-08-28-0.73
2026-08-27+0.88
2026-08-26+2.99
2026-08-25+6.25
2026-08-24-4.03
2026-08-23-0.44
2026-08-22+1.17
2026-08-21+5.07
2026-08-20+0.94
2026-08-19+0.22
2026-08-18+1.65
2026-08-17+0.16
2026-08-16+1.57
2026-08-15+1.92
2026-08-14+1.96
2026-08-13+1.56
2026-08-12+1.89
2026-08-11+2.46
2026-08-10+3.33
2026-08-09+0.77
2026-08-08+1.41
2026-08-07+0.36
2026-08-06-1.26
2026-08-05+2.73
2026-08-04+4.82

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KDFW, lead day 3-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 8 days1 to 2 °F: 8 days2 to 3 °F: 3 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 1 day5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 1 day7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.56 · P90 |e| 4.34 °F-100+10 °Fn = 27 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.000
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.008
+1.00+2.008
+2.00+3.003
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.001
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.001
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08271.92 +1.44

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
NCEP GFS2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
NCEP GFS2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
NCEP GFS2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 27 -1.22 [-2.21, -0.25] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -4.84 [-6.28, -3.40] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 -0.37 [-1.55, 0.97] no
Persistence (baseline) 27 -0.71 [-2.00, 0.54] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW gfs lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/gfs/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model gfs, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/gfs/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence