Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 3

KDFW · aifs_single · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC3.13 [2.42, 3.84]1.66-2.81 [-3.41, -2.31]3.52 [2.83, 4.11]11% [0%, 30%]30%52%-0.19+0.372026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC3.13 [2.29, 3.98]1.66-2.81 [-3.52, -2.24]3.52 [2.72, 4.21]11% [0%, 29%]30%52%-0.19+0.372026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC3.13 [2.31, 4.14]1.66-2.81 [-3.64, -2.24]3.52 [2.71, 4.34]11% [0%, 30%]30%52%-0.19+0.372026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall27 1 QC3.13 [2.27, 3.99]1.66-2.81 [-3.42, -2.20]3.52 [2.69, 4.23]11% [0%, 30%]30%52%-0.19+0.372026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d27 1 QC3.61 [2.96, 4.30]1.62-3.38 [-3.97, -2.89]3.98 [3.28, 4.60]4% [0%, 11%]19%44%-0.37+0.392026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d27 1 QC3.61 [2.86, 4.42]1.62-3.38 [-4.08, -2.83]3.98 [3.20, 4.68]4% [0%, 11%]19%44%-0.37+0.392026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d27 1 QC3.61 [2.88, 4.58]1.62-3.38 [-4.18, -2.83]3.98 [3.21, 4.83]4% [0%, 12%]19%44%-0.37+0.392026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall27 1 QC3.61 [2.83, 4.39]1.62-3.38 [-4.01, -2.81]3.98 [3.16, 4.71]4% [0%, 12%]19%44%-0.37+0.392026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC3.23 [2.61, 3.85]1.39-3.06 [-3.56, -2.56]3.59 [2.93, 4.23]7% [0%, 14%]22%41%-0.23+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC3.23 [2.56, 3.89]1.39-3.06 [-3.58, -2.50]3.59 [2.86, 4.29]7% [0%, 14%]22%41%-0.23+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC3.23 [2.50, 3.93]1.39-3.06 [-3.66, -2.49]3.59 [2.80, 4.32]7% [0%, 14%]22%41%-0.23+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall27 1 QC3.23 [2.51, 3.91]1.39-3.06 [-3.58, -2.49]3.59 [2.78, 4.35]7% [0%, 14%]22%41%-0.23+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d27 1 QC3.70 [3.15, 4.25]1.41-3.61 [-4.09, -3.13]4.09 [3.44, 4.70]4% [0%, 11%]19%37%-0.41+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d27 1 QC3.70 [3.10, 4.28]1.41-3.61 [-4.14, -3.05]4.09 [3.41, 4.75]4% [0%, 11%]19%37%-0.41+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d27 1 QC3.70 [3.05, 4.31]1.41-3.61 [-4.20, -3.04]4.09 [3.32, 4.81]4% [0%, 12%]19%37%-0.41+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall27 1 QC3.70 [3.05, 4.27]1.41-3.61 [-4.13, -3.04]4.09 [3.34, 4.83]4% [0%, 12%]19%37%-0.41+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC1.76 [1.39, 2.17]1.20-1.46 [-2.06, -0.86]2.10 [1.71, 2.49]26% [11%, 41%]59%85%+0.28+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC1.76 [1.33, 2.19]1.20-1.46 [-2.12, -0.79]2.10 [1.65, 2.52]26% [8%, 42%]59%85%+0.28+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC1.76 [1.33, 2.25]1.20-1.46 [-2.20, -0.77]2.10 [1.61, 2.57]26% [7%, 41%]59%85%+0.28+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall27 1 QC1.76 [1.34, 2.21]1.20-1.46 [-2.16, -0.79]2.10 [1.65, 2.59]26% [8%, 41%]59%85%+0.28+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d27 1 QC1.91 [1.48, 2.39]1.22-1.68 [-2.32, -1.08]2.28 [1.84, 2.68]22% [7%, 38%]59%78%+0.22+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d27 1 QC1.91 [1.42, 2.40]1.22-1.68 [-2.34, -1.03]2.28 [1.76, 2.72]22% [4%, 38%]59%78%+0.22+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d27 1 QC1.91 [1.42, 2.48]1.22-1.68 [-2.45, -0.99]2.28 [1.73, 2.79]22% [0%, 38%]59%78%+0.22+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall27 1 QC1.91 [1.41, 2.44]1.22-1.68 [-2.41, -1.01]2.28 [1.77, 2.79]22% [0%, 38%]59%78%+0.22+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC1.79 [1.40, 2.22]1.19-1.48 [-2.08, -0.89]2.08 [1.68, 2.43]30% [11%, 48%]59%81%+0.27+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC1.79 [1.33, 2.25]1.19-1.48 [-2.15, -0.84]2.08 [1.61, 2.48]30% [8%, 47%]59%81%+0.27+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC1.79 [1.34, 2.34]1.19-1.48 [-2.24, -0.82]2.08 [1.57, 2.53]30% [8%, 46%]59%81%+0.27+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall27 1 QC1.79 [1.32, 2.31]1.19-1.48 [-2.21, -0.83]2.08 [1.55, 2.54]30% [8%, 46%]59%81%+0.27+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d27 1 QC1.92 [1.47, 2.38]1.20-1.69 [-2.32, -1.10]2.25 [1.81, 2.65]30% [11%, 48%]56%81%+0.22+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d27 1 QC1.92 [1.41, 2.45]1.20-1.69 [-2.40, -1.06]2.25 [1.73, 2.71]30% [8%, 47%]56%81%+0.22+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d27 1 QC1.92 [1.41, 2.51]1.20-1.69 [-2.46, -1.02]2.25 [1.66, 2.76]30% [8%, 46%]56%81%+0.22+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall27 1 QC1.92 [1.41, 2.46]1.20-1.69 [-2.45, -1.03]2.25 [1.66, 2.78]30% [8%, 46%]56%81%+0.22+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KDFW, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-04: -2.21 °F2026-08-05: -1.66 °F2026-08-06: -1.82 °F2026-08-07: -2.64 °F2026-08-08: -4.27 °F2026-08-09: -5.74 °F2026-08-10: -0.75 °F2026-08-11: -0.71 °F2026-08-12: -0.67 °F2026-08-13: -1.46 °F2026-08-14: -3.36 °F2026-08-15: -2.19 °F2026-08-16: -3.15 °F2026-08-17: -4.78 °F2026-08-18: -3.39 °F2026-08-19: -3.41 °F2026-08-20: -2.5 °F2026-08-21: +1.67 °F2026-08-22: -1.92 °F2026-08-23: -6.17 °F2026-08-24: -6.01 °F2026-08-25: +2.75 °F2026-08-26: -4.52 °F2026-08-27: -3.89 °F2026-08-28: -4.65 °F2026-08-29: -5.33 °F2026-08-30: -2.96 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.96
2026-08-29-5.33
2026-08-28-4.65
2026-08-27-3.89
2026-08-26-4.52
2026-08-25+2.75
2026-08-24-6.01
2026-08-23-6.17
2026-08-22-1.92
2026-08-21+1.67
2026-08-20-2.50
2026-08-19-3.41
2026-08-18-3.39
2026-08-17-4.78
2026-08-16-3.15
2026-08-15-2.19
2026-08-14-3.36
2026-08-13-1.46
2026-08-12-0.67
2026-08-11-0.71
2026-08-10-0.75
2026-08-09-5.74
2026-08-08-4.27
2026-08-07-2.64
2026-08-06-1.82
2026-08-05-1.66
2026-08-04-2.21

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KDFW, lead day 3-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -3 °F: 5 days-3 to -2 °F: 5 days-2 to -1 °F: 4 days-1 to 0 °F: 3 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.96 · P90 |e| 5.49 °F-100+10 °Fn = 27 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.004
-4.00-3.005
-3.00-2.005
-2.00-1.004
-1.00+0.003
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08273.13 -2.81

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 27 +1.22 [0.25, 2.21] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -3.81 [-4.86, -2.85] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 +0.69 [-0.29, 1.18] no
Persistence (baseline) 27 +0.50 [-0.43, 1.46] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW aifs_single lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/aifs_single/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model aifs_single, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/aifs_single/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence