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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 3

KDFW · ifs_hres · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.42 [1.57, 3.32]2.10-0.85 [-1.82, 0.40]3.00 [1.89, 3.78]32% [14%, 50%]50%68%+0.18+0.282026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.42 [1.48, 3.51]2.10-0.85 [-2.05, 0.88]3.00 [1.73, 3.94]32% [8%, 55%]50%68%+0.18+0.282026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.42 [1.38, 3.54]2.10-0.85 [-2.11, 0.92]3.00 [1.62, 3.94]32% [6%, 52%]50%68%+0.18+0.282026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.42 [1.42, 3.69]2.10-0.85 [-1.98, 0.98]3.00 [1.65, 3.95]32% [0%, 55%]50%68%+0.18+0.282026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC2.60 [1.82, 3.38]2.08-1.29 [-2.26, -0.08]3.12 [2.10, 3.84]23% [10%, 37%]41%59%+0.12+0.292026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC2.60 [1.75, 3.58]2.08-1.29 [-2.46, 0.35]3.12 [1.99, 3.97]23% [5%, 38%]41%59%+0.12+0.292026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC2.60 [1.70, 3.60]2.08-1.29 [-2.51, 0.46]3.12 [1.87, 4.00]23% [0%, 38%]41%59%+0.12+0.292026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC2.60 [1.71, 3.59]2.08-1.29 [-2.35, 0.52]3.12 [1.89, 3.97]23% [0%, 41%]41%59%+0.12+0.292026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.37 [1.53, 3.04]1.78-1.25 [-2.25, -0.15]2.88 [1.75, 3.53]23% [10%, 44%]55%68%+0.20+0.392026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.37 [1.32, 3.21]1.78-1.25 [-2.39, 0.13]2.88 [1.41, 3.64]23% [8%, 50%]55%68%+0.20+0.392026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.37 [1.23, 3.26]1.78-1.25 [-2.46, 0.15]2.88 [1.30, 3.63]23% [7%, 54%]55%68%+0.20+0.392026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.37 [1.24, 3.21]1.78-1.25 [-2.25, 0.22]2.88 [1.30, 3.68]23% [7%, 50%]55%68%+0.20+0.392026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC2.61 [1.83, 3.29]1.74-1.64 [-2.55, -0.58]3.01 [2.03, 3.65]9% [0%, 22%]41%59%+0.12+0.402026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC2.61 [1.56, 3.46]1.74-1.64 [-2.68, -0.27]3.01 [1.60, 3.76]9% [0%, 23%]41%59%+0.12+0.402026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC2.61 [1.43, 3.50]1.74-1.64 [-2.77, -0.22]3.01 [1.49, 3.79]9% [0%, 25%]41%59%+0.12+0.402026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC2.61 [1.54, 3.48]1.74-1.64 [-2.62, -0.28]3.01 [1.58, 3.75]9% [0%, 25%]41%59%+0.12+0.402026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.03 [2.23, 3.67]1.18+3.02 [2.22, 3.67]3.44 [2.59, 4.08]5% [0%, 12%]27%55%-0.45+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.03 [2.18, 3.70]1.18+3.02 [2.17, 3.70]3.44 [2.55, 4.08]5% [0%, 14%]27%55%-0.45+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.03 [2.13, 3.73]1.18+3.02 [2.11, 3.73]3.44 [2.54, 4.13]5% [0%, 14%]27%55%-0.45+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.03 [2.16, 3.74]1.18+3.02 [2.14, 3.74]3.44 [2.53, 4.15]5% [0%, 14%]27%55%-0.45+0.452026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC3.31 [2.46, 4.00]1.24+3.31 [2.46, 4.00]3.70 [2.80, 4.38]5% [0%, 12%]23%45%-0.59+0.432026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC3.31 [2.37, 4.02]1.24+3.31 [2.37, 4.02]3.70 [2.67, 4.39]5% [0%, 14%]23%45%-0.59+0.432026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC3.31 [2.37, 4.08]1.24+3.31 [2.37, 4.08]3.70 [2.67, 4.47]5% [0%, 14%]23%45%-0.59+0.432026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC3.31 [2.35, 4.07]1.24+3.31 [2.35, 4.07]3.70 [2.63, 4.45]5% [0%, 14%]23%45%-0.59+0.432026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.92 [2.05, 3.60]1.17+2.92 [2.05, 3.60]3.34 [2.35, 3.99]9% [0%, 25%]27%59%-0.40+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.92 [1.98, 3.68]1.17+2.92 [1.98, 3.68]3.34 [2.34, 4.03]9% [0%, 27%]27%59%-0.40+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.92 [1.91, 3.70]1.17+2.92 [1.91, 3.70]3.34 [2.29, 4.09]9% [0%, 30%]27%59%-0.40+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.92 [1.96, 3.69]1.17+2.92 [1.96, 3.69]3.34 [2.30, 4.08]9% [0%, 29%]27%59%-0.40+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC3.15 [2.31, 3.77]1.17+3.15 [2.31, 3.77]3.51 [2.59, 4.14]5% [0%, 12%]23%45%-0.51+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC3.15 [2.22, 3.84]1.17+3.15 [2.22, 3.84]3.51 [2.52, 4.16]5% [0%, 14%]23%45%-0.51+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC3.15 [2.19, 3.85]1.17+3.15 [2.19, 3.85]3.51 [2.50, 4.20]5% [0%, 14%]23%45%-0.51+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC3.15 [2.20, 3.85]1.17+3.15 [2.20, 3.85]3.51 [2.52, 4.20]5% [0%, 14%]23%45%-0.51+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDFW, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-04: +3.95 °F2026-08-10: -0.52 °F2026-08-11: -0.92 °F2026-08-12: -0.45 °F2026-08-13: -1.48 °F2026-08-14: -1.79 °F2026-08-15: -2.13 °F2026-08-16: -1.71 °F2026-08-17: -2.31 °F2026-08-18: -0.83 °F2026-08-19: -2.41 °F2026-08-20: +0.08 °F2026-08-21: +6.22 °F2026-08-22: +0.94 °F2026-08-23: -3.82 °F2026-08-24: -3.38 °F2026-08-25: +5.76 °F2026-08-26: +0.34 °F2026-08-27: -2.65 °F2026-08-28: -4.18 °F2026-08-29: -5.4 °F2026-08-30: -1.99 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.99
2026-08-29-5.40
2026-08-28-4.18
2026-08-27-2.65
2026-08-26+0.34
2026-08-25+5.76
2026-08-24-3.38
2026-08-23-3.82
2026-08-22+0.94
2026-08-21+6.22
2026-08-20+0.08
2026-08-19-2.41
2026-08-18-0.83
2026-08-17-2.31
2026-08-16-1.71
2026-08-15-2.13
2026-08-14-1.79
2026-08-13-1.48
2026-08-12-0.45
2026-08-11-0.92
2026-08-10-0.52
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04+3.95

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDFW, lead day 3-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1 °F: 4 days-1 to 0 °F: 4 days0 to 1 °F: 3 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 1 day7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.06 · P90 |e| 5.28 °F-100+10 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.004
-2.00-1.004
-1.00+0.004
+0.00+1.003
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.001
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08222.42 -0.85

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 -0.69 [-1.18, 0.29] no
NCEP GFS 22 +0.37 [-0.97, 1.55] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -4.96 [-6.03, -3.19] yes
Persistence (baseline) 22 -0.53 [-1.38, 0.95] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW ifs_hres lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model ifs_hres, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence