Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New York Central Park · NCEP GFS · lead day 5

KNYC · gfs · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC4.40 [3.49, 5.31]3.59+2.52 [0.42, 4.57]5.37 [4.16, 6.34]16% [9%, 24%]24%32%-0.31-0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC4.40 [3.45, 5.47]3.59+2.52 [0.20, 5.07]5.37 [4.08, 6.47]16% [7%, 24%]24%32%-0.31-0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC4.40 [3.43, 5.45]3.59+2.52 [-0.05, 4.95]5.37 [4.03, 6.49]16% [7%, 25%]24%32%-0.31-0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall25 1 QC4.40 [3.46, 5.43]3.59+2.52 [0.01, 4.92]5.37 [4.05, 6.43]16% [7%, 24%]24%32%-0.31-0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d25 1 QC4.36 [3.47, 5.24]3.45+2.70 [0.70, 4.60]5.32 [4.12, 6.30]16% [7%, 25%]24%36%-0.30-0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d25 1 QC4.36 [3.41, 5.44]3.45+2.70 [0.54, 5.02]5.32 [4.05, 6.49]16% [5%, 27%]24%36%-0.30-0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d25 1 QC4.36 [3.41, 5.44]3.45+2.70 [0.33, 4.92]5.32 [4.01, 6.50]16% [5%, 26%]24%36%-0.30-0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall25 1 QC4.36 [3.41, 5.44]3.45+2.70 [0.28, 5.00]5.32 [4.08, 6.40]16% [4%, 26%]24%36%-0.30-0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d25 1 QC4.55 [3.31, 6.12]3.28+3.03 [1.10, 5.52]5.30 [3.94, 6.63]4% [0%, 11%]24%32%-0.36+0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d25 1 QC4.55 [3.22, 6.36]3.28+3.03 [1.08, 6.22]5.30 [3.82, 6.84]4% [0%, 11%]24%32%-0.36+0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d25 1 QC4.55 [3.08, 6.32]3.28+3.03 [0.95, 6.18]5.30 [3.63, 6.76]4% [0%, 14%]24%32%-0.36+0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall25 1 QC4.55 [3.14, 6.31]3.28+3.03 [1.01, 6.22]5.30 [3.75, 6.68]4% [0%, 14%]24%32%-0.36+0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d25 1 QC4.67 [3.45, 6.28]3.22+3.22 [1.29, 5.72]5.37 [3.99, 6.75]4% [0%, 12%]24%32%-0.39+0.032026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d25 1 QC4.67 [3.33, 6.56]3.22+3.22 [1.29, 6.41]5.37 [3.91, 7.00]4% [0%, 11%]24%32%-0.39+0.032026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d25 1 QC4.67 [3.18, 6.50]3.22+3.22 [1.17, 6.31]5.37 [3.72, 6.91]4% [0%, 12%]24%32%-0.39+0.032026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall25 1 QC4.67 [3.29, 6.45]3.22+3.22 [1.24, 6.41]5.37 [3.79, 6.83]4% [0%, 12%]24%32%-0.39+0.032026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC5.08 [4.26, 5.82]3.11+4.47 [3.23, 5.55]5.87 [5.21, 6.45]12% [0%, 27%]28%32%-0.89-0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC5.08 [4.24, 5.91]3.11+4.47 [3.28, 5.71]5.87 [5.16, 6.52]12% [0%, 29%]28%32%-0.89-0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC5.08 [4.12, 6.01]3.11+4.47 [3.07, 5.74]5.87 [5.07, 6.55]12% [0%, 30%]28%32%-0.89-0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall25 1 QC5.08 [4.18, 5.94]3.11+4.47 [3.14, 5.65]5.87 [5.07, 6.51]12% [0%, 29%]28%32%-0.89-0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d25 1 QC5.31 [4.48, 6.11]3.11+4.75 [3.52, 5.84]6.09 [5.40, 6.73]12% [0%, 24%]20%32%-0.98-0.242026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d25 1 QC5.31 [4.45, 6.17]3.11+4.75 [3.58, 6.00]6.09 [5.34, 6.80]12% [0%, 27%]20%32%-0.98-0.242026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d25 1 QC5.31 [4.31, 6.27]3.11+4.75 [3.37, 6.08]6.09 [5.26, 6.83]12% [0%, 29%]20%32%-0.98-0.242026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall25 1 QC5.31 [4.40, 6.20]3.11+4.75 [3.45, 6.00]6.09 [5.26, 6.79]12% [0%, 27%]20%32%-0.98-0.242026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d25 1 QC4.81 [3.79, 5.93]2.80+4.44 [3.26, 5.84]5.69 [4.47, 6.76]8% [0%, 22%]16%32%-0.79-0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d25 1 QC4.81 [3.77, 6.29]2.80+4.44 [3.33, 6.20]5.69 [4.43, 7.14]8% [0%, 22%]16%32%-0.79-0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d25 1 QC4.81 [3.74, 6.13]2.80+4.44 [3.22, 6.06]5.69 [4.31, 7.03]8% [0%, 23%]16%32%-0.79-0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall25 1 QC4.81 [3.67, 6.21]2.80+4.44 [3.18, 6.18]5.69 [4.23, 6.98]8% [0%, 22%]16%32%-0.79-0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d25 1 QC5.10 [4.10, 6.21]2.75+4.80 [3.67, 6.16]5.94 [4.77, 7.01]8% [0%, 22%]16%32%-0.90-0.102026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d25 1 QC5.10 [4.05, 6.55]2.75+4.80 [3.71, 6.48]5.94 [4.70, 7.35]8% [0%, 22%]16%32%-0.90-0.102026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d25 1 QC5.10 [4.07, 6.39]2.75+4.80 [3.61, 6.36]5.94 [4.60, 7.27]8% [0%, 23%]16%32%-0.90-0.102026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall25 1 QC5.10 [3.98, 6.48]2.75+4.80 [3.59, 6.47]5.94 [4.53, 7.26]8% [0%, 22%]16%32%-0.90-0.102026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KNYC, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-06: +3.13 °F2026-08-07: +3.76 °F2026-08-08: -0.88 °F2026-08-09: +7.19 °F2026-08-10: +9.35 °F2026-08-11: +9.14 °F2026-08-12: +4.4 °F2026-08-13: +3.29 °F2026-08-14: -5.85 °F2026-08-15: -0.82 °F2026-08-16: +5.15 °F2026-08-17: +6.28 °F2026-08-18: +0.9 °F2026-08-19: +3.22 °F2026-08-20: +1.58 °F2026-08-21: -4.81 °F2026-08-22: -2.1 °F2026-08-23: -9.02 °F2026-08-24: +3.32 °F2026-08-25: +0.31 °F2026-08-26: +3.06 °F2026-08-27: +6.48 °F2026-08-28: +1.08 °F2026-08-29: +12.17 °F2026-08-30: +2.7 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+2.70
2026-08-29+12.17
2026-08-28+1.08
2026-08-27+6.48
2026-08-26+3.06
2026-08-25+0.31
2026-08-24+3.32
2026-08-23-9.02
2026-08-22-2.10
2026-08-21-4.81
2026-08-20+1.58
2026-08-19+3.22
2026-08-18+0.90
2026-08-17+6.28
2026-08-16+5.15
2026-08-15-0.82
2026-08-14-5.85
2026-08-13+3.29
2026-08-12+4.40
2026-08-11+9.14
2026-08-10+9.35
2026-08-09+7.19
2026-08-08-0.88
2026-08-07+3.76
2026-08-06+3.13

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KNYC, lead day 5-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 2 °F: 4 days2 to 4 °F: 7 days4 to 6 °F: 2 days6 to 8 °F: 3 days8 to 10 °F: 2 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 1 day14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.32 · P90 |e| 9.09 °F-200+20 °Fn = 25 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.001
-8.00-6.000
-6.00-4.002
-4.00-2.001
-2.00+0.002
+0.00+2.004
+2.00+4.007
+4.00+6.002
+6.00+8.003
+8.00+10.002
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.001
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08254.40 +2.52

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 25 +2.09 [0.52, 3.63] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 +1.61 [0.49, 2.74] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 +1.61 [0.72, 2.59] yes
Persistence (baseline) 25 +1.04 [-0.19, 2.24] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KNYC gfs lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/gfs/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KNYC (New York Central Park), model gfs, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/gfs/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence