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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New York Central Park · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 5

KNYC · ifs_hres · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC2.72 [2.15, 3.45]2.81+0.94 [-0.35, 2.37]3.38 [2.58, 4.21]22% [8%, 32%]33%56%+0.14+0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC2.72 [2.06, 3.49]2.81+0.94 [-0.63, 2.49]3.38 [2.41, 4.24]22% [0%, 32%]33%56%+0.14+0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC2.72 [2.05, 3.53]2.81+0.94 [-0.68, 2.58]3.38 [2.44, 4.31]22% [0%, 33%]33%56%+0.14+0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 1 QC2.72 [2.06, 3.50]2.81+0.94 [-0.59, 2.46]3.38 [2.44, 4.29]22% [0%, 32%]33%56%+0.14+0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 1 QC2.72 [2.12, 3.43]2.77+1.13 [-0.14, 2.53]3.39 [2.59, 4.23]22% [8%, 32%]39%61%+0.14+0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 1 QC2.72 [2.00, 3.49]2.77+1.13 [-0.43, 2.63]3.39 [2.40, 4.27]22% [0%, 32%]39%61%+0.14+0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 1 QC2.72 [2.00, 3.53]2.77+1.13 [-0.51, 2.82]3.39 [2.40, 4.32]22% [0%, 33%]39%61%+0.14+0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 1 QC2.72 [2.04, 3.47]2.77+1.13 [-0.41, 2.69]3.39 [2.45, 4.29]22% [0%, 32%]39%61%+0.14+0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d20 1 QC2.51 [1.75, 3.24]2.64+1.02 [-0.00, 2.11]3.29 [2.13, 4.21]20% [8%, 41%]50%80%+0.16+0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d20 1 QC2.51 [1.63, 3.28]2.64+1.02 [-0.17, 2.13]3.29 [2.01, 4.24]20% [6%, 50%]50%80%+0.16+0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d20 1 QC2.51 [1.61, 3.32]2.64+1.02 [-0.22, 2.21]3.29 [1.96, 4.28]20% [0%, 47%]50%80%+0.16+0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall20 1 QC2.51 [1.57, 3.36]2.64+1.02 [-0.23, 2.19]3.29 [2.00, 4.33]20% [5%, 50%]50%80%+0.16+0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d20 1 QC2.47 [1.62, 3.25]2.57+1.31 [0.26, 2.40]3.39 [2.07, 4.41]30% [17%, 50%]55%70%+0.18+0.052026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d20 1 QC2.47 [1.44, 3.26]2.57+1.31 [0.09, 2.44]3.39 [1.96, 4.46]30% [15%, 56%]55%70%+0.18+0.052026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d20 1 QC2.47 [1.50, 3.33]2.57+1.31 [0.04, 2.51]3.39 [1.96, 4.53]30% [12%, 56%]55%70%+0.18+0.052026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall20 1 QC2.47 [1.43, 3.33]2.57+1.31 [0.08, 2.50]3.39 [1.96, 4.56]30% [14%, 50%]55%70%+0.18+0.052026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC2.64 [1.41, 4.03]2.09+2.19 [0.91, 3.65]3.62 [1.72, 5.11]28% [5%, 54%]50%72%-0.08+0.032026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC2.64 [1.23, 4.13]2.09+2.19 [0.69, 3.79]3.62 [1.55, 5.21]28% [0%, 62%]50%72%-0.08+0.032026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC2.64 [1.17, 4.23]2.09+2.19 [0.61, 3.84]3.62 [1.50, 5.26]28% [0%, 62%]50%72%-0.08+0.032026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 1 QC2.64 [1.21, 4.08]2.09+2.19 [0.63, 3.77]3.62 [1.57, 5.14]28% [0%, 62%]50%72%-0.08+0.032026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 1 QC2.72 [1.43, 4.17]2.14+2.32 [0.99, 3.82]3.73 [1.78, 5.26]22% [5%, 46%]50%72%-0.11+0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 1 QC2.72 [1.25, 4.29]2.14+2.32 [0.76, 3.96]3.73 [1.60, 5.36]22% [0%, 56%]50%72%-0.11+0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 1 QC2.72 [1.16, 4.36]2.14+2.32 [0.67, 4.00]3.73 [1.53, 5.40]22% [0%, 50%]50%72%-0.11+0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 1 QC2.72 [1.22, 4.23]2.14+2.32 [0.71, 3.95]3.73 [1.63, 5.28]22% [0%, 56%]50%72%-0.11+0.012026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d20 1 QC2.24 [1.21, 3.18]1.98+2.09 [0.90, 3.07]3.23 [1.71, 4.27]50% [32%, 77%]65%75%+0.11+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d20 1 QC2.24 [1.04, 3.29]1.98+2.09 [0.59, 3.17]3.23 [1.39, 4.35]50% [29%, 83%]65%75%+0.11+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d20 1 QC2.24 [0.83, 3.31]1.98+2.09 [0.66, 3.17]3.23 [0.88, 4.44]50% [29%, 86%]65%75%+0.11+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall20 1 QC2.24 [0.83, 3.24]1.98+2.09 [0.54, 3.12]3.23 [0.88, 4.30]50% [29%, 86%]65%75%+0.11+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d20 1 QC2.34 [1.28, 3.28]1.98+2.24 [1.04, 3.23]3.33 [1.78, 4.38]50% [32%, 77%]65%75%+0.07+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d20 1 QC2.34 [1.13, 3.40]1.98+2.24 [0.72, 3.33]3.33 [1.48, 4.44]50% [29%, 83%]65%75%+0.07+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d20 1 QC2.34 [0.94, 3.43]1.98+2.24 [0.88, 3.34]3.33 [1.02, 4.53]50% [29%, 86%]65%75%+0.07+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall20 1 QC2.34 [0.94, 3.36]1.98+2.24 [0.69, 3.27]3.33 [1.01, 4.39]50% [29%, 86%]65%75%+0.07+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KNYC, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-06: -1.56 °F2026-08-12: +4.66 °F2026-08-13: -3.41 °F2026-08-14: -0.06 °F2026-08-16: +3.29 °F2026-08-17: +7.59 °F2026-08-19: +0.02 °F2026-08-20: +5.66 °F2026-08-21: +1.15 °F2026-08-22: -3.78 °F2026-08-23: -2.23 °F2026-08-24: -0.58 °F2026-08-25: -2.34 °F2026-08-26: +0.15 °F2026-08-27: +4.46 °F2026-08-28: -2.08 °F2026-08-29: +2.47 °F2026-08-30: +3.52 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+3.52
2026-08-29+2.47
2026-08-28-2.08
2026-08-27+4.46
2026-08-26+0.15
2026-08-25-2.34
2026-08-24-0.58
2026-08-23-2.23
2026-08-22-3.78
2026-08-21+1.15
2026-08-20+5.66
2026-08-19+0.02
2026-08-18—
2026-08-17+7.59
2026-08-16+3.29
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14-0.06
2026-08-13-3.41
2026-08-12+4.66
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06-1.56

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KNYC, lead day 5-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 5 °F: 2 days5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.41 · P90 |e| 4.96 °F-100+10 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.002
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.002
+4.00+5.002
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.001
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08182.72 +0.94

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 +0.49 [-0.00, 1.13] no
NCEP GFS 18 -1.61 [-2.59, -0.72] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 +0.12 [-0.70, 0.82] no
Persistence (baseline) 18 -0.44 [-1.47, 0.95] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KNYC ifs_hres lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KNYC (New York Central Park), model ifs_hres, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence