Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

New York Central Park · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 5

KNYC · aifs_single · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC2.31 [1.56, 3.10]2.12-0.63 [-1.28, 0.13]2.91 [2.08, 3.64]28% [12%, 44%]48%64%+0.31+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC2.31 [1.44, 3.16]2.12-0.63 [-1.28, 0.17]2.91 [1.98, 3.68]28% [10%, 47%]48%64%+0.31+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC2.31 [1.43, 3.35]2.12-0.63 [-1.36, 0.15]2.91 [1.96, 3.81]28% [10%, 47%]48%64%+0.31+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall25 1 QC2.31 [1.46, 3.20]2.12-0.63 [-1.25, 0.29]2.91 [1.95, 3.81]28% [9%, 46%]48%64%+0.31+0.362026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d25 1 QC2.19 [1.37, 3.00]2.16-0.20 [-0.88, 0.62]2.89 [2.06, 3.60]44% [23%, 70%]56%68%+0.35+0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d25 1 QC2.19 [1.29, 3.06]2.16-0.20 [-0.85, 0.68]2.89 [1.96, 3.64]44% [20%, 77%]56%68%+0.35+0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d25 1 QC2.19 [1.25, 3.25]2.16-0.20 [-0.95, 0.68]2.89 [1.92, 3.79]44% [14%, 76%]56%68%+0.35+0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall25 1 QC2.19 [1.28, 3.14]2.16-0.20 [-0.84, 0.74]2.89 [1.89, 3.73]44% [18%, 76%]56%68%+0.35+0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC1.82 [1.24, 2.42]1.69-0.57 [-1.07, 0.05]2.32 [1.58, 2.94]42% [23%, 65%]62%79%+0.47+0.492026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC1.82 [1.14, 2.52]1.69-0.57 [-1.10, 0.17]2.32 [1.51, 2.99]42% [20%, 71%]62%79%+0.47+0.492026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC1.82 [1.10, 2.57]1.69-0.57 [-1.14, 0.30]2.32 [1.42, 3.04]42% [20%, 75%]62%79%+0.47+0.492026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC1.82 [1.15, 2.51]1.69-0.57 [-1.07, 0.20]2.32 [1.51, 3.03]42% [20%, 73%]62%79%+0.47+0.492026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC1.72 [1.12, 2.36]1.70-0.15 [-0.64, 0.47]2.26 [1.47, 2.92]42% [28%, 55%]67%75%+0.50+0.492026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC1.72 [0.99, 2.45]1.70-0.15 [-0.66, 0.57]2.26 [1.26, 3.00]42% [25%, 57%]67%75%+0.50+0.492026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC1.72 [0.94, 2.52]1.70-0.15 [-0.74, 0.71]2.26 [1.19, 3.08]42% [23%, 57%]67%75%+0.50+0.492026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC1.72 [1.02, 2.44]1.70-0.15 [-0.61, 0.63]2.26 [1.30, 3.05]42% [27%, 57%]67%75%+0.50+0.492026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC2.68 [1.67, 3.88]2.29+2.49 [1.44, 3.69]3.82 [2.27, 5.18]32% [14%, 50%]56%68%+0.00+0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC2.68 [1.52, 3.99]2.29+2.49 [1.38, 3.73]3.82 [1.99, 5.33]32% [11%, 50%]56%68%+0.00+0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC2.68 [1.42, 4.08]2.29+2.49 [1.28, 3.88]3.82 [1.63, 5.52]32% [9%, 50%]56%68%+0.00+0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall25 1 QC2.68 [1.49, 4.06]2.29+2.49 [1.31, 3.77]3.82 [1.89, 5.36]32% [11%, 52%]56%68%+0.00+0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d25 1 QC2.76 [1.72, 3.97]2.32+2.62 [1.57, 3.82]3.93 [2.34, 5.30]32% [14%, 50%]56%64%-0.03+0.072026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d25 1 QC2.76 [1.58, 4.10]2.32+2.62 [1.47, 3.88]3.93 [2.08, 5.44]32% [11%, 50%]56%64%-0.03+0.072026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d25 1 QC2.76 [1.48, 4.16]2.32+2.62 [1.36, 4.00]3.93 [1.69, 5.62]32% [9%, 50%]56%64%-0.03+0.072026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall25 1 QC2.76 [1.54, 4.14]2.32+2.62 [1.41, 3.93]3.93 [1.98, 5.47]32% [11%, 52%]56%64%-0.03+0.072026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC2.71 [1.85, 3.80]2.31+2.32 [1.21, 3.57]3.71 [2.32, 5.03]29% [17%, 44%]50%67%-0.00+0.062026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC2.71 [1.78, 3.91]2.31+2.32 [1.16, 3.60]3.71 [2.26, 5.15]29% [15%, 44%]50%67%-0.00+0.062026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC2.71 [1.73, 4.07]2.31+2.32 [1.10, 3.72]3.71 [2.18, 5.24]29% [14%, 46%]50%67%-0.00+0.062026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC2.71 [1.74, 3.96]2.31+2.32 [1.13, 3.69]3.71 [2.21, 5.19]29% [14%, 47%]50%67%-0.00+0.062026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC2.79 [1.90, 3.90]2.36+2.44 [1.34, 3.72]3.82 [2.41, 5.16]25% [15%, 35%]54%58%-0.03+0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC2.79 [1.81, 4.00]2.36+2.44 [1.20, 3.73]3.82 [2.33, 5.28]25% [14%, 36%]54%58%-0.03+0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC2.79 [1.76, 4.13]2.36+2.44 [1.20, 3.86]3.82 [2.24, 5.37]25% [14%, 37%]54%58%-0.03+0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC2.79 [1.79, 4.05]2.36+2.44 [1.20, 3.83]3.82 [2.29, 5.32]25% [14%, 38%]54%58%-0.03+0.042026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KNYC, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-06: -0.53 °F2026-08-07: -1.01 °F2026-08-08: -1.33 °F2026-08-09: +0.23 °F2026-08-10: +4.86 °F2026-08-11: -0.15 °F2026-08-12: -3.7 °F2026-08-13: -0.06 °F2026-08-14: -2.31 °F2026-08-15: -3.81 °F2026-08-16: -0.36 °F2026-08-17: +5.64 °F2026-08-18: -6.14 °F2026-08-19: -2.92 °F2026-08-20: -3.85 °F2026-08-21: +2.64 °F2026-08-22: +3.25 °F2026-08-23: -2.06 °F2026-08-24: -1.27 °F2026-08-25: -1.78 °F2026-08-26: -1.05 °F2026-08-27: -0.26 °F2026-08-28: -3.28 °F2026-08-29: -0.91 °F2026-08-30: +4.31 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+4.31
2026-08-29-0.91
2026-08-28-3.28
2026-08-27-0.26
2026-08-26-1.05
2026-08-25-1.78
2026-08-24-1.27
2026-08-23-2.06
2026-08-22+3.25
2026-08-21+2.64
2026-08-20-3.85
2026-08-19-2.92
2026-08-18-6.14
2026-08-17+5.64
2026-08-16-0.36
2026-08-15-3.81
2026-08-14-2.31
2026-08-13-0.06
2026-08-12-3.70
2026-08-11-0.15
2026-08-10+4.86
2026-08-09+0.23
2026-08-08-1.33
2026-08-07-1.01
2026-08-06-0.53

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KNYC, lead day 5-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 4 days-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 5 days-1 to 0 °F: 6 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 2 days5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.06 · P90 |e| 4.64 °F-100+10 °Fn = 25 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.004
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.005
-1.00+0.006
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.002
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08252.31 -0.63

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 25 -2.09 [-3.63, -0.52] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -0.49 [-1.20, 0.18] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 -0.49 [-1.13, 0.00] no
Persistence (baseline) 25 -1.05 [-2.87, 0.70] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KNYC aifs_single lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/aifs_single/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KNYC (New York Central Park), model aifs_single, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KNYC/model/aifs_single/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence